The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition€¦ · a seamless world aided by nomadic computing devices that support multiple activities. This phenomenon is most marked

The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan:

Pattern RecognitionExecutive Summary

The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan:

Pattern RecognitionExecutive Summary

Principal contributors:Cathy De Rosa

Lorcan Dempsey

Alane Wilson

Editor:Alane Wilson

Graphics and layout:Rick Limes

Linda Shepard

OCLC Online Computer Library Center, Inc.

Dublin, Ohio USA

Contents

1 Overview

4 The Social Landscape

6 The Economic Landscape

8 The Technology Landscape

10 The Research and Learning Landscape

12 The Library Landscape

12 Social trends

14 Technology trends

16 Future Frameworks

What haven’t you noticed lately?

The full report is available at:

www.oclc.org/membership/escan/summary/

1. Mark Federman, Chief Strategist, McLuhan Program in Culture and Technology, University of Toronto, Information Highways Conference 2003, Keynote Speech delivered March 25, 2003, www.mcluhan.utoronto.ca/EnterpriseAwarenessMcLuhanThinking.pdf.

Overview

Change has become a cliché, a worn-out concept that has lost its power toinform. At the same time change continues to be a constant—and, indeed,what would be the alternative?

Nevertheless, we are sure the rapid transformations, particularly in thetechnological sphere of the public world, are more profound and morefrequent than at any other time in humanity’s history. Whatever occupationwe hold, the day-to-day reality of our workplaces is change. But, “change”is made up of so many events, inventions, ideas, replacements,introductions, alterations and modifications that the complexity of theenvironment overwhelms vocabulary. We are reduced to clichés, and, in attempting to identify and understand all changes as they affect ourenvironment, become less able to notice what we haven’t noticed.

Let us accept, then, that change is profound, accelerating, transforming andunpredictable. And let us also accept that, absent the talents of the Oracleof Delphi, any person or organization is unlikely to be able to makemeaningful predictions that are helpful for charting directions for anindefinable future.

An example close to home will suffice: the Arthur D. Little Company wrote a 90-page environmental scan for OCLC and the OCLC Board of Trustees in2000. There is not one mention of the search phenomenon that profoundlychanged the “infosphere” we now occupy. In the subsequent years, Googlehas become ubiquitous, the major player in search technologies, and oftena substitute for a visit to the local library’s reference desk.

Executive Summary

1

The OCLC Environmental Scan is a report to the OCLC membership. It seeksto serve as a tour guide and to discern patterns in the landscape that chaosand order inhabit together. The purpose of the report is to identify anddescribe issues and trends that are impacting and will impact OCLC,libraries, museums, archives and other allied organizations, positivelyand negatively. The scope of the report is the social, political, economicand technological spheres in which all these organizations and theircommunities of users operate. It attempts to identify the main patternsin the information landscape and suggest some implications for its future.

“What we conceiveabout our business isnot sufficient to fully

understand all theeffects that

are actually happeningin and around our

business…What haven’tyou noticed lately?”1

2 The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition

Simplistically, libraries and archives came into being to provide a central location for hard-to-find, scarce,

expensive or unique material. Scarcity of information isthe basis for the modern library. In countries where

information continues to be scarce, a library’s role isstill unambiguous. In some countries where access to

information is now akin to access to electricity or water,the reason to have freestanding storehouses of a subset

of all information is harder to articulate.

Many are pessimistic,some are optimistic,

but one theme persists: The landscape has

changed and the mapshave not been published yet.

Trying, then, to grasp the essence of the changes that impact the complex,interrelated organizations that make up the world of OCLC, libraries andallied organizations is like fractal geometry. The closer the analysis, thegreater the complexity. The sheer volume of large, significant changes to the environment overwhelms and inertia or endless discourse can be theresult.

It might not be overstating the case to say that the Web has become themost significant engine driving changes that impact OCLC and its memberand participant institutions. It would be hard to find a person working atOCLC or in a member organization whose professional and personal life has not been changed by the Web.

Whatever the benefits to personal lives, the ubiquity and ever-presentnature of the Web and the billions of pages of content available in thismatrix of information are both boon and bane. There is a subdued sense of having lost control of what used to be a tidy, well-defined universeevident among those who work in this information environment.

It has become increasingly difficult to characterize and describe thepurpose of, and the experience of, using libraries and other alliedorganizations. The relationships among the information professional, the user and the content have changed and continue to change.

What has not changed is the implicit assumption among most librariansthat the order and rationality that libraries represent is necessary and apublic good. So there is a persistent and somewhat testy tone to much that is written about the changed information landscape by those in theinformation community: Why don’t “they” get it that libraries and librariansare useful, relevant and important in the age of Google?

The library itself has long been a metaphor for order and rationality. Theprocess of searching for information within a library is done within highlystructured systems and information is exposed and knowledge gained as aresult of successfully navigating these preexisting structures. Because thisis a complicated process, the librarian helps guide and navigate a systemwhere every piece of content has a preordained place.

Executive Summary 3

Contrast this world with the anarchy of the Web. The Web is free-associating, unrestricted and disorderly. Searching is secondary to findingand the process by which things are found is unimportant. “Collections”are temporary and subjective where a blog entry may be as valuable to theindividual as an “unpublished” paper as are six pages of a book madeavailable by Amazon. The individual searches alone without expert helpand, not knowing what is undiscovered, is satisfied.

The two worlds appear to be incompatible. One represents order, onechaos. The challenge is great for organizations occupying the intersticebetween these worlds. Let us call the interstice “the twilight zone.”

Rod Serling used the term “twilight zone” in the 1950s and 60s to refer tohis fictional TV world where things were not as they seemed and strangethings happened to ordinary people. And indeed, many informationprofessionals think strange things are happening in their world.

But twilight itself is not inherently strange. The term refers to the light in thesky between full night and sunrise, or the light in the sky between sunsetand full night. Light is low and the world seems indistinct. What is familiarin full light loses clarity and is ill-defined. However, the world in all itsmessy, complicated, rich detail is still there. It is just the lack of light beingbeamed to human eyeballs that makes the landscape of the perceivableworld ill-defined and difficult to navigate.

The purpose of the report is to identify and describe issues and trends thatare impacting and will impact OCLC, libraries, museums, archives and otherallied organizations, positively and negatively. It attempts to identify themain patterns in the landscape and suggest some implications of this effortat pattern recognition.

The Scan reviews trends in five landscapes: social, economic, technology,research and learning, and library. The first three examine the larger worldthat libraries and allied organizations inhabit, and it is not until the lastlandscape that we go back to the library. We invite you to take a preview of

the trends in the following pages.

In the summer of 2003,OCLC staff conductedinterviews with 100librarians, vendors,archivists and otherpeople operating in theinformation world, andidentified 300 relevantarticles and papers.OCLC staff alsoconducted focus groupswith senior citizens,teachers and high schoolstudents.

Education, library andtechnology spendingdata were collected for29 countries. Thesecountries representapproximately 60percent of the world’spopulation and 85percent of the world’sgross domestic product.


“Users DO know whatthey’re doing!”

Industry Pundit

The Environmental Scan begins with the “information consumer.” Withoutthis person, there would be no libraries and no need for OCLC. Three majortrends characterize the new information consumer who is comfortable in avirtual world:

• Self-sufficiency

• Satisfaction

• Seamlessness

The information consumer frequently chooses the Web over the libraryfor information resources, despite the librarian’s concern about thetrustworthiness of the Web resources.

Self-sufficiency

Banking, shopping, entertainment, research, travel, job-seeking, chatting—pick a category and one theme will ring clear—self-service. People of all agegroups are spending more time online doing things for themselves. In lessthan half a decade, consumers worldwide have become efficient onlineusers. The trend is an increasing comfort with Web-based information andcontent sources among all age groups.

The information consumer operates in an autonomous way, using searchengines as gateways to both facts and answers. “Ask a” services likeGoogle Answers and Ask Jeeves have become self-service alternatives totraditional library reference services.

Satisfaction

Surveys confirm that information consumers are pleased with the results oftheir online activities. In 2002, for example, Outsell, Inc. studied over30,000 U.S. Internet information seekers and found that 78 percent ofrespondents said the open Web provides “most of what they need.”

Librarians worry that information found using search engines does not havethe credibility and authority of information found in libraries, and thatpeople will not learn basic information seeking skills, and so leave muchvaluable material undiscovered. Yet most library visitors also bypass thereference desk, boldly setting off to find answers on their own.

The indisputable fact is that information and content on the open Web is fareasier and more convenient to find and access than are information andcontent in physical or virtual libraries. The information consumer types aterm into a search box, clicks a button and sees results immediately. Theinformation consumer is satisfied.

Web searching technology:

share of searches2

2. Danny Sullivan, “Share of Searches: February 2004,” SearchEngineWatch.com (numbers provided by comScore Media Metrix), (April 28, 2004), http://searchenginewatch.com/reports/article.php/2156431 and OCLC staff.

The Social Landscape

Executive Summary 5

Seamlessness

The traditional separation of academic, leisure and work time is fusing intoa seamless world aided by nomadic computing devices that supportmultiple activities. This phenomenon is most marked among young adults.Their world is a seamless “infosphere” where the boundaries of work, playand study are gone, a marked contrast to the compartmentalized lifestylesof their parents.

See “The Anatomy of a Gamer” on page 11 of the complete report for anoverview of the seamless world of young adults.

Contrast this seamless world with the one students experience at mostlibraries. Library environments still cater to an older generation withseparate spheres of information, frequently designating differentcomputers for access to library content than the ones used for e-mail andwriting papers.

The strong interest in more collaborative, seamless environments has notgone unnoticed by information sector companies, including Amazon,Yahoo! and Google, who are embedding new collaborative technologies intheir services. The chart below shows the ‘social and information exchange’infrastructure that technology and retail organizations are building intotheir environments. Libraries, however, are not making use of many ofthese collaborative technologies.

“Interactivity is a hallmark of young

people’s lives. Theylive in a collaborative

world that doesn’texist for adults.” Director, Public Library

“Social Software”3

3. Please see “Sources” in the Appendices, The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition (full report), www.oclc.org/membership/escan/.

Collaboration technologies offered by organizations

as part of an overall service offering


In these early years of the 21st century, many countries face growingdemands on services funded centrally. The trends we highlight in the fullScan report revolve around a cycle of not enough money for all theprograms countries fund from the public purse. In good economic times,“funding the public good” is painless. When funding diminishes, publicscrutiny sharpens toward such nonrevenue producing sectors as police,fire, sewers, roads, schools and libraries. Police or sewers? Roads orlibraries? One overarching trend is that scarce funds for supporting allthe public goods will make for an acrimonious process of resourceallocation.

In the full report, we look at how libraries are funded and how thatfunding is allocated.

Worldwide education and library spending

In 2001, the 29 countries covered in The Scan spent about $1.1 trillionon education, roughly 4.1 percent of their collective gross domesticproduct (GDP). Library spending for the 29 countries totaled about$29 billion in 2000, 75 percent of that in only five countries.

Most of the countries that rank in the top ten for education spendingalso rank in the top ten for library spending. However, there is noworldwide reporting standard for library expenditures; some libraryspending could be included in a country’s total educationalexpenditures.

The public and public goods3

The Economic Landscape

Executive Summary 7

Library funds—sources and uses

On average, funding comes from three primary sources: public funding (87 percent) received from central or local governments; user fees (about4.5 percent); and other miscellaneous sources (about 8.5 percent) includinggrants, donations and interest earned.

Allocation of library funds across the countries covered in The Scan showedstriking similarities. On average, these countries spent 53 percent of annualoperating funds on staff; 27 percent on print material stock; 17 percent onfacilities and administration; and 3 percent on electronic content andelectronic subscriptions. Interestingly, automation-poor and automation-rich countries spend similar amounts on staffing.

As library funding contracts or remains static (while materials costsincrease), staffing and materials budgets receive increased scrutiny fromfunding agencies and library administrators, creating both challenges andopportunities. The need to reduce costs while the expectations of usersincrease will significantly impact library services.

The higher education and government sectors have tracked their return oninvestment (ROI) for many years, expressing, for example, the value of acollege education to the individual and to society at large. Libraries andallied organizations have not documented, in any organized way, theeconomic good they provide. But renewed interest in the power and ROI ofshared library infrastructures is driving libraries to collaborate in new ways.Along with a shift to privatization of public services such as libraries therehas been an increasing emphasis on assessment and accountability,though these are not new societal expectations. Trends suggest that forlibraries, this means finding their place in the larger network of learningresources that includes museums, public broadcasting and communityorganizations that are part of a knowledge-based society. Creating sharedefficiencies and improved ROI for stakeholders will be a key directive forlibrary management in the years ahead.

Uses of library funds

worldwide3

“Libraries may have to stop thinking about theircollections as their primary asset.”

Industry Pundit


Patterns surfacing in the technology and information architecturelandscape suggest we are headed into a period of change that may be assignificant as the shift from mainframe architectures to client/serverarchitectures in the 1980s. Using sophisticated messaging, open-sourcesolutions and new security protocols, data processing and informationexchange will become tightly connected to business processes, facilitatingnew kinds of collaboration, partnering and outsourcing relationships.

Many experts say the combination of new standards, distributed softwareand a worldwide Internet infrastructure will create a profoundly newtechnology architecture landscape within the next five years. We explorefour aspects of this landscape that will impact information creation,dissemination and management.

Bringing structure to unstructured data

There are increased investments in technologies and standards thatallow organizations to bring structure to unstructured and uncatalogeddata such as historical photographs, research notes, audio clips andother riches hidden in library collections.

Two dominant technical and structural approaches to the challenge ofunstructured data have emerged: a reliance on search technologiesand a trend toward automated data categorization.

Searching has become an international pastime. Finding, however, can be a daunting task. The “killer app” solution is “search.” Search(or search alone) is not the long-term answer to superior informationdiscovery. It is simply the best tool we have today.

Automatic data categorization may address the void, enabling thesmarter “find.” Data characterization techniques that library sciencehas utilized for decades are becoming important outside theinformation management community.

“We are entering anera where we are

rapidly changing howwe look at InformationTechnology (IT). For the

first time, we are putting the focus on

the ‘I’ and not the ‘T.’”

Industry Pundit

The Technology Landscape

Executive Summary 9

Distributed, component based software

There a move away from monolithic, hard-to-maintain masses ofapplication software code toward smaller components that communicatewith one another to complete particular tasks. Services and information willbe available on more devices and at distributed points of service. One ofthe dominant enabling technologies is Web services.

Web services are commonly used processes delivered over the Web. UsingWeb services, small software modules located anywhere on the Web areable to interact with each other using standard protocols, making itpossible to quickly link together computer systems across organizationsworldwide.

Librarians and information providers must think about how to deploy Webservices for their users.

A move to open-source software

The move to lower cost, open-source software will enable organizations tobring solutions and services to market faster and cheaper. Many in the ITcommunity feel that although open-source applications have not yet fullymatured, they believe the applications are mature enough to include as keyparts of their IT strategies.

Faced with budget constraints and increased spending on securityinfrastructure, the open-source movement will allow organizations thatcannot wait for funding to get started on IT initiatives. This will likely meanan even faster rate of new technology introductions.

It is not a coincidence that many of the developers participating in theopen-source arena are the same young people for whom a collaborative,seamless gaming environment is part of their social landscape.

Security, authentication and Digital Rights Management (DRM)

Moving intellectual property around in virtual forms and formats is creatingenormous challenges for authors, publishers and information providers. Wedon’t have to look any farther than the music industry to see the dramaticchanges that new access models can have on distribution of intellectualproperty. How each individual component of secure rights management,security, authentication and DRM, will develop independently is stillunclear. What is clear is that all the key players in the information supplychain—content owners, software developers, hardware vendors, wirelessand network providers, and the e-commerce infrastructure and paymentscompanies—are making substantial investments in both the technologyand standards of secure rights management.

Hype or Hope

Which technologies have captured the attention of the informationconsumer? What tools are being adopted today and which technologies arenot ready for prime time? See pages 47–50 in the full report for some ideasand discussion.

“We need to sustainthe open connectivity—

the linking among people, organizations,data and ideas—that

drives the growth anddiversity of the Web.”

Industry Pundit

“The technology I

want most is a PDAdevice that contains allthe information I need

to do my work.”

High School Student


Trends in this landscape cover not only the institutions engaged in formalresearch and learning, but also the research and learning practices ofindividuals. All forms of research and learning activities have an effect onlibraries and allied organizations.

Proliferation of e-learning

E-learning has a presence in most large corporations and in an ever-increasing number of college and university courses. Course managementsystems such as WebCT and Blackboard allow for the creation of a virtualclassroom where faculty and students can interact and post curriculum-related material.

E-learning is also the term used to describe corporate or work-based e-learning. Companies purchase e-learning for workers for many of thesame reasons that individuals take university courses online: travel time isreduced, infrastructure costs are low, delivery is platform-independent andlearning anywhere and anytime is enabled. And e-learning is big business.E-learning companies are earning millions of dollars annually.

Lifelong learning in the community

The emergence of learning as an important political agenda has challengedlibraries, museums and related organizations to show that they make adifference, that they add value, that they are central to educational andcivic missions. This is a common international theme, played out indifferent social and political contexts.

Human or intellectual capital—the knowledge that comes from education,training, on-the-job experience and workplace-based e-learning—is centralto sustaining personal and organizational advantage. The global network isenabling interest communities to collaborate in real time on a planetaryscale. At the same time, there is a resurgence of interest in regional andlocal identities as the world is recast as a network of regions and cities, as a sense of community and belonging becomes more important.

Libraries and other allied organizations of all types seek to build therelationships and provide the services that create value to theircommunities, and which corroborate their role as trusted hubs ofcommunity and learning.

The changing patterns of research and learning in higher education

As part of a university or college, the academic library is not an end in itself. It supports research, learning and scholarship and has always had toadapt as research and learning behaviors change. In the current networkenvironment, this change is uneven and poses great challenges for libraries.

“Centrally storedmaterials that can berepurposed might be

sensible.”Academic Librarian

The Research and Learning Landscape

Learning objects4

4. Learning objects courtesy of Dr. Jim Flowers, Department of Industry & Technology, Ball State University.

Executive Summary 11

“Libraries need to beproactive about

e-learning and notwait to be

approached asa partner.”

Academic Librarian

Scholarly information flow—2003

There is a move to integration among systems that support learning,research and administration, and a corresponding interest in campusarchitectures, repository and portal frameworks, and in common servicessuch as authentication and authorization. This is changing the way facultyand students access, create and use information resources and is creatingnew support challenges.

The underlying challenges and opportunities involve the social andinstitutional changes necessary to effect the transition from traditionalsupport for scholarship to the digital, distributed, seamless environmentsthat will be necessary in the future. Consequently, coordinatedmanagement and disclosure of digital assets of institutions—learningobjects, data sets, e-prints, theses, dissertations and so on—will benecessary. Currently, there are no settled patterns or standards.

As well, the outputs of digital scholarship are often in complex andnonstandard forms. The academic community will need to develop a betterunderstanding of ways in which scholarship and learning activities arecreated, used, reused and preserved in the digital environment.

The institutional repository movement is sometimes connected with an“open access” discussion. Open access is concerned with better andbroader access to research and learning outputs. More specifically, it isinterested in reducing economic barriers to such access.

It is clear that a new ecology and a new economy for scholarly materialsare being formed. In the past, the flow of research and learning outputstraveled through formal, linear publishing mechanisms. We are seeing theemergence of a variety of repository frameworks, metadata aggregationservices, and richer content interconnection and repurposing that are

changing how we think about data and its uses. Thelibrary has the opportunity to take a leadership

role in developing policies and programsthat contribute to a coherent,

institution-wide knowledgemanagement system.


This section was the most challenging landscape to compile because it isthe most familiar and so it is more difficult to recognize the major patternsthreading their way through the fabric of the shared infosphere. Only thecontrast between or among the trends identified in The Environmental Scanwill lead to pattern recognition in our most familiar landscape. In thissection we focus on issues, challenges and opportunities in the LibraryLandscape as expressed by the people OCLC interviewed.

See pages 69–96 of the full report for the insights from the 100 interviewsdone for The Scan.

Social trends

Staffing

In not so many years, a huge amount of collective experience andknowledge will be gone from cataloging departments and reference desksas the Baby Boom library staff retire.

• Libraries should reallocate positions to newer kinds of jobs: digitalscholarship and open-source projects, for example.

• Collectively, we feel the need to do everything ourselves. We need to

get over this.

New roles

Among the many new roles that libraries are assuming is the role of libraryas community center. Not just warehouses of content, they are socialassembly places, participating in their larger communities. It makes a great

“Serving you better, seeing you less—that’s our motto!”

Public Library Director

5. “Library” is used here as shorthand for libraries, archives, museums and historical societies.

“The technology isthe easy part—many

tools exist today. The difficult task is tochange the cultural

and political barriersthat exist on

campus.”

Academic Librarian

The Library Landscape5


“Big bookstoresare excellent at

merchandising thereading experience.Most libraries were

designed formaterials

management.” Director, Public Library

deal of sense for libraries to look for new, broader service opportunitieswithin their communities.

• Mass-market materials are increasingly avoiding traditional distribution

channels such as the library.

• Access is a form of sustainability. Content that can be accessed isvalued and is more likely to be sustained by the community.

Accommodating users

It is still the case that most library users must go virtually or physically tothe library. Library content and services are rarely pushed to the user.

• We need to stop looking at things from a library point-of-view and focus

on the user’s view.

• Librarians cannot change user behavior and so need to meet the user.

Traditional versus nontraditional content

Social, economic, technological and learning issues make contentmanagement for libraries and allied organizations enormously challenging.But, all artifacts of cultures must be curated, preserved and madeaccessible.

• Being collection-centric is old-fashioned; content is no longer king—

context is.

• Creation of copy cataloging is not a sustainable model—there is less andless need for human-generated cataloging and less ability to pay for it.


Preservation and persistence

Issues related to persistence and preservation are a subset of the issues ofcontent management and are very difficult.

• Digital preservation has to be a national issue—it will never work on aninstitution-by-institution basis.

• There is no more substance behind “digital preservation” than therewas behind “print preservation.” There’s no money for any type of

preservation.

Funding and accountability

Funding to libraries, museums, historical societies and other institutionsreliant on the public purse may continue to decline in the short term.Longer term, these agencies may have to compete for a share of publicfunding, potentially resulting in new forms of collaboration.

• Technology issues are not difficult. Funding is.

• The public won’t support endeavors they can’t see.

Collaboration

The really significant advances and the most meaningful and lastingsolutions in the Library Landscape have been cooperative ones.

• We need way more collaboration among museums, libraries andhistorical societies to present coherent collections.

• Local history collections are not all that unique. The material iselsewhere—local historical society, university library, state library—and so inventories must be done before expensive digitization projectsare done.

Technology trends

In this section we refer to the hardware, software and infrastructures thatmake up the Library Landscape. Long dominated by the integrated librarysystem, we are seeing a move to a more plural library systems environment.

An increasingly interconnected environment

The library systems environment is becoming more densely interconnected.This is the result of four main areas of pressure. The first area of pressure isthe diversity and number of systems that information organizations have.The second pressure is the growing trend toward group resource sharingarrangements at various levels. The third pressure is relatively new, but willbecome more important over time. This is the need to interact with othersystems’ environments. Finally, library applications increasingly need tointeract with “common services”—services that are delivered enterprise-wide. All of these complex systems need to be interoperable.

“Sustainability is onlypossible through collaboration.”

Public Library Director

“New applications oftechnology will

enable libraries toshift from their

traditional emphasison the packages of

data to furnishing […]information to

individuals when andwhere they need it.”

Fred Kilgour, 1981


Network services and architectures

As the environment becomes more complex, we are seeing a movementaway from application “stovepipes” towards a decomposition ofapplications, so that they can be recombined to meet emerging needs moreflexibly. Think of this as repurposing for architectures. What this perspectiveshows are the following types of services: presentation services that areresponsible for accepting user input and rendering system outputs;application services responsible for managing transactions betweencomponents; content repositories of data and metadata; and commonservices that are potentially shared by several applications. The variouscomponents need to “click.” This then raises the question of ensuring anappropriate standards framework to make this happen.

New standards

There are two main areas of standards development. Repository andcontent standards are emerging to manage digital objects. Of note are OAIS (Open Archival Information System), preservation metadata, contentpackaging, content exchange and metadata that support operations onobjects. Secondly, applications standards are being developed in the areas of cross-searching, harvesting, resolution and specialized librarytransaction applications such as NCIP and ISO ILL.

Universal access to information

In common with other communities, the library community initiallydeveloped a range of domain-specific approaches. Also in common withother communities it is examining those approaches in light of widerdevelopments. Four are of special interest: the Semantic Web, Webservices, grid computing and Wi-Fi. All of these, in one sense or another,attempt to address the less-than-seamless Internet-accessible world.

Summary

Libraries are used to handling semantically dense, richly structured data. A major challenge will be to handle more unstructured data. Libraries needto find ways of leveraging their investment in structured approaches inrelation to large amounts of unstructured materials on the Web that arebeing generated by research and learning activities. Collectively, however,we do not seem to have made many of the changes to our landscape thatthe brightest among us have been advocating for, on behalf of our largercommunities. One result? Information Consumer is hanging out at theInformation Mall with Google.

“There’s a disconnectbetween libraries and

consumer-orientedinformation

management tools.”

Industry Pundit


What patterns were discerned in the tour through the twilight zone? Weidentified trends in five landscapes and there may be few that surprisereaders, but the purpose of The Scan was to surface trends and issues that,told as a whole story, might lead us to notice some aspect of a familiartrend we did not notice before.

Three patterns in the fabric of information and knowledge managementstand out among many. One is a decrease in guided access to content.Second, there is a trend to disaggregation not just of content but also of services, technology, economics and institutions. The third pattern isthat of collaboration: gaming, open-source software, Web conferencing,blogging, instant messaging, learning objects and “hack fests” are allforms of collaboration, enabled by technology. The three trends have deep implications for all the organizational areas of libraries and alliedorganizations. Read more about these patterns on pages 98–101 in the full report.

What might these three patterns suggest for the future? We argue that theonly way to answer this question is to re-view the landscape using the lensof the consumer. How do users view the library in their personalinfosphere? Just how much mind share the library holds is fuzzy. Perhapsthe goal of libraries might be invisibility, in the sense that the service isubiquitous and fully integrated into the infosphere. After all, technologyand services are most welcome in our lives when we do not have to devotemuch thought to them. We press a switch and light comes or goes.

How can OCLC and other organizations collaborate with libraries to effectchanges that bring the collective wealth of libraries to the attention anddesktop of the information consumer? The challenges inherent should notbe viewed as threatening but as an opportunity for renewal andparticipation. We have to embrace the opportunity of the changedlandscape, not reconstitute the old landscape in a new space. What if wecollectively built an infosphere rich in content and context that was easy touse, ubiquitous and integrated, woven into the fabric of people’s lives?How do we take information, information sources and our expertise to theuser, rather than make the user come to our spheres? Libraries and allied

organizations do not exist separately from their communities.

It is time to reestablish our preeminence in search and retrieval,information and knowledge management, metadata creation andcollaboration. Collaboration has built the foundations of modernlibrarianship and must form the foundation of the new “infosphere” in which libraries and allied organizations marry technology withcollaboration to deliver services to the information consumer.

Future Frameworks


Information on the Web is fragmented; disaggregation of content splits itfurther. Seamless computing may expose even more content to InformationConsumer. Few institutions outside of libraries have the ability to put thepieces of the puzzle back together or build the trails for navigation, but it iscritical that the right questions be asked.

The question is not what should be digitized and preserved. The questionis not what role the library will play in the institutional repository. Thequestion is not MARC or METS or MODS. The question is not how willretiring librarians be replaced.

The real question is: How do we together, as a community, move ourtrusted circle closer to information consumers at the level of their need?

This executive summary skims the surface of a wealth ofinteresting and pertinent trend information contained in The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan. For a more completeunderstanding of the trends that are shaping the future oflibraries and librarianship, you are encouraged to read the fullreport. Order a print copy in English or Spanish or read it onlinein English: www.oclc.org/membership/escan/summary/.

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1. Mark Federman, Chief Strategist, McLuhan Program in Culture and Technology, University of Toronto, Information Highways Conference 2003, Keynote Speech delivered March 25, 2003, www.mcluhan.utoronto.ca/EnterpriseAwarenessMcLuhanThinking.pdf. 1


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The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition€¦ · a seamless world aided by nomadic computing devices that support multiple activities. This phenomenon is most marked