Thayer Recent Developments in Vietnam and the East Sea (South China Sea)

8/6/2019 Thayer Recent Developments in Vietnam and the East Sea (South China Sea)

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Recent Developments in the

Socialist Republic of Vietnam

and East Sea

Professor Carl Thayer

Nhom Nghien Cuu Van Hoa Dong NaiCuu Long

Internaonal Funcon Centre

Canley Vale, N.S.W

May 22, 2011


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Outline

11th Naonal Congress of the VietnamCommunist Party (January 2011)

Elecons for the 13th Naonal Assembly(May 22) East Sea issues


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11th Naonal Party Congress

Adopted 4 key policy documentsBao Cao Chinh TriCuong linh xay dung dat nuoc trong thoi ky qua do

len Chu nghia xa hoi(Polical Plaorm on Building

the Naon During the Transional Period to

Socialism)

Dieu Le DangChien Luoc Phat Trien KinhTeXa Hoi 20112020

Elected new Central Commiee


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0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

SMD SCV SCH S NTB NRR NCV N

Party Membership by Region %

South Mekong Delta, South Central Vietnam, Southern Central Highlands, South;

North Tay Bac, North Red River, North Central Vietnam, North


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11th Central Commiee

New Central Commiee of 175 full and 25alternate members largest in history

Delegates given more names than posions tobe filled including names of those who werenominated at the congress

Orderly generaonal change 58% of memberswere incumbents

Sectoral representaon shi`ed to provincials


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Full members

retainedAlternate members

promoted

New full members

Generaonal Change on the VCP

Central Commiee 2011


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Sectoral Composion of the

Central Commiee 2011

9%

38%

42%

11%

Senior Party

Central PartyState

Secondary/

Provincial

Armed Forces


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Princelings

Nong Quoc Tuan (son of Nong Duc Manh) Nguyen Thanh Nghi (son of Nguyen Tan Dung) Tran Sy Thanh (son of Nguyen Sinh Hung) Nguyen Xuan An (son of Nguyen Van Chi) Pham Binh Minh (son of Nguyen Co Thach) Nguyen Chi Vinh (son of Nguyen Chi Thanh) Tran Binh Minh (son of Tran Lam)


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Politburo

Outgoing Politburo recommended 17members but only 14 elected

9 incumbents (4 with fixed posts and 5 le` forfive key leadership posions, 1 term required])

5 new members including first woman ethnicminority

Nguyen Phu Trong elected party SecretaryGeneral (given age exempon)


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New VCP Politburo N = 14

Truong Tang Sang Phung Quang Thanh Nguyen Tan Dung Nguyen Sinh Hung Nguyen Phu Trong Le Hong Anh Le Thanh Hai

To Huy Rua Pham Quang Nghi Tran Dai Quang Tong Thi Phong Ngo Van Du Dinh The Huynh Nguyen Xuan Phuc

North: 6, Centre 4, and South 4


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Politburo Work Assignments

Nguyen Phu Trong VCP Secretary General To Huy Rua head CC Organisaon

Commission

Phung Quang Thanh Minister of NaonalDefence

Le Hong Anh Minister of Public Security Pham Quang Nghi Hanoi Party Secretary Le Thanh Hai Ho Chi Minh City Party

Secretary


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Losers

Politburo member, Deputy Prime Minister andMinister for Foreign Affairs Pham Gia Khiem

Politburo member Ho Duc Viet Le Doan Hop Minister of Informaon and

Communicaons (Nghe An facon)


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Ministers not Reelected to CC

1. Nguyen Hong Quan Construcon2. Pham Gia Khiem Foreign Affairs3. Nguyen Quoc Trieu Health4. Tran Van Tuan Home Affairs (Interior)5. Le Doan Hop Informaon and Communicaons6. Pham Khoi Nguyen Natural Resources and

Environment

7. Vo Hong Phuc Planning and Investment8. Hoang Van Phong Science and Technology9. Tran Van Truyen State Inspecon Commiee10.Ho Nghia Dung Transportaon


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SecretaryGeneral

PrimeMinister

Chair NaonalAssemblyStanding

Commiee

PermanentSecretary

PartySecretariat

StatePresident


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Party v State

Leadership selecon of state leaders a twostep process

Step 1: win elecon to VCP Central Commiee Step 2: win elecon as deputy to the Naonal

Assembly

State PresidentPrime MinisterChair Naonal Assembly Standing Commiee


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Naonal Assembly Elecons May 22nd

832 candidates from 1,085 nomineesAll members of Politburo are candidates

15 selfnominated candidates from 834 each in Hanoi and TP HCM

13th Naonal Assembly (July 21st)Truong Tan Sang state president

Nguyen Tan Dung prime ministerNguyen Sinh Hung Chairman NA SC


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Five Deputy Prime

Ministers

PM NguyenTan Dung

NguyenSinh Hung

Pham GiaKhiem

Truong VinhTrong

NguyenThien Nhan

HoangTrung Hai

Born 1946 Born 1944 Born 1942 Born 1953 Born 1959


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Conclusion

Era of party strong man long over Instuonal interests migate against strong

party leader

State (Cabinet and Office of Prime Minister)has grown more powerful than party

Possible fricon between prime minister andkey party elite and state president


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Growing Power of the Office of the

Prime Minister

StatePresident,SecretaryGeneral,PrimeMinister


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Equilibrium


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Recent Developments in the East Sea


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2.Vietnams Marime

Development Strategy to 2015


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Sansha County

level City, Hainan

Island [Paracels,

Zhongsha

(MacclesfieldBank) and Spratly

Islands]

established

November 2007


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Annual Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban

May 16-August 1, 2011


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Extended Connental Shelf May 2009


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ChinasResponse to

Claims for

ExtendedConnental

Shelf


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17th ASEAN Regional Forum

July 2010

The U.S. supports the 2002 ASEANChinaDeclaraon on Conduct of Pares inthe South China Sea. We encouragethe pares to reach agreement on a full

code of conduct. The U.S. is preparedto facilitate iniaves and confidencebuilding measures consistent with thedeclaraon.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 11 of 27 members voice concern


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ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeng Plus

October 2010

South China Sea not on formal agendaor included in final statement

Included in Chairmans statement 7 ministers raised South China Sea It is their problem, it is not our

problem. Rear Admiral Guan Youfei, deputy director of

the external affairs office in Chinas DefenceMinistry


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Status of the Declaraon on Conduct

of Pares in the South China Sea (DOC)

Bilateral discussion ChinaVietnam ASEANChina Joint Working Group to

Implement the DOC revivedPreviously considered on life supportNow discussing a code of conduct for the South

China Sea

Indonesia as ASEAN Chair has raised issue


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Conclusion

Posive Developments

China has ceased pressure oninternaonal oil and gas companies

Decrease in harassment of Vietnamesefishermen

Upturn in ChinaUS relaons laTE 2010US downplays another USNS Impeccable

incident

Grounds for cauous opmism on DOC


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Conclusion

Negave Developments

China increasing capacity to enforcesovereignty claims

Connued development of Yulin NavalBase Connued lack of Chinas defence

transparency

Anxiety about decline of US primacy


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Recent Developments in the

Socialist Republic of Vietnam

and East Sea

Professor Carl Thayer

Nhom Nghien Cuu Van Hoa Dong NaiCuu Long

Internaonal Funcon Centre

Canley Vale, N.S.W

May 22, 2011

Documents

Thayer Recent Developments in Vietnam and the East Sea (South China Sea)