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8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
1/12
DoConfidenceBuildingMeasuresReally
A resst e
Major
C a enges
to
MaritimeSecurit ?
EmeritusProfessorCarlThayer
Presentationtoth
ExpertNetworks
Meeting
TheAustralianNational University
,
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
2/12
Humanetreatmentdanger/distress
Voluntarynotificationofexercises
Exchangeofrelevantinformation
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
3/12
Marineenvironmentalprotection
Marinescientificresearch
Safet of navi ation communication
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
4/12
1. Unsafeactions
against
military
waters2. Disruptionofcommercialactivities
.
4. Piracy
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
5/12
ASEAN
Security
Cooperation
ASEANPoliticalSecurityCouncil
ADMMOtherSecurity
Ministries
ASEANMaritime
Forum
ADSOM
ServiceChiefs
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
6/12
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
7/12
ASEAN
Centric
Security
Cooperation
ISMon
Maritime
ADMMPlus
Security
AMFPlus?
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
8/12
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
9/12
Maritimeincidents
likely
to
erupt
at
any
time
andundermine oliticalrelations
Brushupsresultingintacticalmiscalculation
changeratherthanproblemtobemanaged
n erna ona
aw
a
necessary
u
no
sufficientfoundationformaritimesecurity
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
10/12
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
11/12
CodeofConductforSoutheastAsias
MaritimeDomain
Securityof
maritime
domain
is
indivisible
SouthChinaSea
regionalautonomyandASEANscentrality
or
out
na
eas ou
e
expan e
toallofSoutheastAsiasMaritimeDomain
8/2/2019 Thayer South China Sea: Confidence-Building Measures and Maritime Security
12/12
DoConfidenceBuildingMeasuresReally
A ress
t e
Major
C a enges
to
MaritimeSecurit ?
EmeritusProfessorCarlThayer
Email:[email protected]