Texas Library

Association Diversity

Summit

April 8, 2014

San Antonio, Texas

Texas Population Characteristics,

Trends, and Projections

Growing States, 2000-2010

2

2000

Population*

2010

Population*

Numerical

Change

2000-2010

Percent

Change

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth

of the Hispanic population

Percent Change

Due to

Year* Population

Numerical

Change

Annual

Percent

Change

Natural

Increase

Net

Migration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 49.65 50.35

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 54.94 45.06

2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 52.05 47.95

2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as

estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012

3

Total Estimated Population by County, 2012

4Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates

Along and east of I-35:

40% of land

86% of population

92% of population growth (2011-2012)

Legend

POPESTIMATE2012

71-10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,001-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,253,700

Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.

96 counties lost

population over the

two year period

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

popchg4201072012

LT 0

1-1,000

1,001-20,000

20,001-80,000

80,001-161,252

Of counties that lost population

90% had net out migration

47% had natural decline

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

6

Percent Increase

1. Midland, Texas 4.6

2. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7

3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6

4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4

5. Odessa, Texas 3.4

6. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3

7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.0

8. Casper, Wyo. 3.0

9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9

10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

7

NumericIncrease

1. Harris, Texas 80,005

2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764

3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644

4. Dallas, Texas 45,827

5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880

6. King, Wash. 35,838

7. Travis, Texas 34,381

8. Orange, Calif. 34,017

9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997

10. Clark, Nev. 32,833

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

Percent Hispanic, Texas Counties, 2007-2011

8

Legend

tl_2013_us_state

PCT HISP 11 5YR

DP5_HC03_VC82

0-10%

11-20%

2-40%

41-75%

76-99%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011

Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012

9

mill

ion

s

Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic

Percent of the population that is native born, Texas Counties, 2007-2011

10

Legend

ACS_11_5YR_County

DP2_HC03_VC130

40-70%

71-85%

86-90%

91-95%

96-100%

ACS_11_5YR_County

DP2_HC03_VC189

0.000000 - 3.000000

3.000001 - 5.000000

5.000001 - 10.000000

10.000001 - 20.000000

20.000001 - 36.500000

tl_2013_us_stateSource: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011

Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks Spanish and speaks English less than very well, Texas Counties, 2008-2012

11

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PctSpanEngLTVW

0-5%

5.1-10%

10.1-20%

20.1-35%

35.1-50%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black11%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

Hispanic or Latino

38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Un

der

1 y

ear

4 y

ears

8 y

ears

12

yea

rs

16

yea

rs

20

yea

rs

24

yea

rs

28

yea

rs

32

yea

rs

36

yea

rs

40

yea

rs

44

yea

rs

48

yea

rs

52

yea

rs

56

yea

rs

60

yea

rs

64

yea

rs

68

yea

rs

72

yea

rs

76

yea

rs

80

yea

rs

84

yea

rs

88

yea

rs

92

yea

rs

96

yea

rs

10

0 t

o 1

04

…

Po

pu

lati

on

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

13Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

NH White Male NH White Female

14Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male

Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

15Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male

NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

16Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Zero

.5 of 2000-2010

2000-2010

Migration Scenarios

17Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-White

NH-Black

Hispanic

NH-Other

18Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency or greater

81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA

and MS)

Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29

19Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.

Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

20

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.

Less Than High SchoolCollege and Greater

Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using

Trended Rates, Texas

22

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / AssociateDegree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate or ProfessionalDegree

Per

cen

t o

f th

e C

ivili

an L

abo

r Fo

rce

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Constant

2030 Trended

Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration ScenarioU.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Race/Ethnicity in 2011, and Projected for 2030 Using Constant Rates and

Using Trended Rates of Educational Attainment, Texas

23

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000White Black Hispanic Other

2011 ACS Estimate 2030 Projected Constant Educational Attainment

2030 Projected Trended Educational Attainment

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011 1-Year PUMS.

Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Demographics and Destiny

24

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530

Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us

Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us

25

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.