Wimberley Rotary Club

March 4, 2014

Wimberley, Texas

Texas Population Characteristics,

Trends, and Projections

Growing States, 2000-2010

2

2000

Population*

2010

Population*

Numerical

Change

2000-2010

Percent

Change

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth

of the Hispanic population

Percent Change

Due to

Year* Population

Numerical

Change

Annual

Percent

Change

Natural

Increase

Net

Migration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 49.65 50.35

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 54.94 45.06

2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 52.05 47.95

2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as

estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012

3

Total Estimated Population by County, 2012

4Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates

Along and east of I-35:

40% of land

86% of population

92% of population growth (2011-2012)

Legend

POPESTIMATE2012

71-10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,001-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,253,700

Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.

96 counties lost

population over the

two year period

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

popchg4201072012

LT 0

1-1,000

1,001-20,000

20,001-80,000

80,001-161,252

Of counties that lost population

90% had net out migration

47% had natural decline

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

6

Percent Increase

1. Midland, Texas 4.6

2. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7

3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6

4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4

5. Odessa, Texas 3.4

6. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3

7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.0

8. Casper, Wyo. 3.0

9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9

10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

7

NumericIncrease

1. Harris, Texas 80,005

2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764

3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644

4. Dallas, Texas 45,827

5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880

6. King, Wash. 35,838

7. Travis, Texas 34,381

8. Orange, Calif. 34,017

9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997

10. Clark, Nev. 32,833

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

8Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

-3,032-2,566

-1,389-1,198

-881-828-739-643-510-451-425-380-284

484204807767978639401,0051,0351,0451,1071,1191,3811,4271,6521,6641,7402,014

2,5252,6952,6952,7822,8923,041

3,6813,7744,0754,1204,1644,2314,288

4,7904,8074,860

5,2719,043

10,02219,697

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

OhioWashington

New HampshireMinnesota

South CarolinaMississippi

ColoradoMaryland

ConnecticutSouth DakotaNorth Dakota

VermontDistrict of Columbia

DelawareMontana

OregonOklahoma

MaineMichigan

Rhode IslandUtah

IdahoWyoming

West VirginiaMassachusetts

IowaWisconsinTennessee

NebraskaHawaii

ArkansasAlabama

FloridaKentucky

NevadaIllinois

MissouriPennsylvania

IndianaPuerto Rico

ArizonaGeorgiaKansas

New JerseyVirginia

New MexicoLouisiana

AlaskaNew York

North CarolinaCalifornia

Estimated Net Migration Between States and Texas, 2011

9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011One-year Sample

Six states account for 60% of unauthorized immigrants in 2012

10

Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012

11

mill

ion

s

Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic

Resident Characteristics ofHays County, Texas, 2008-2012

78.0%

7.2%

23.5%

82.6%

16.3%

34.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Percent living in same house1 year+

Percent foreign born Percent language other thanEnglish spoken at home

Hays County Texas

12Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community

Survey, 5 Year Sample 2008-2012

Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or greater, census tracts, Texas, 2007-2011

13

Legend

ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS

HS and Greater

LT 61%

61-70%

71-85%

86-90%

91-100%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

American Community Survey, Five-

Year Sample, 2007-2011.

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment PCorp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri(Thailand), TomTom

Percent of the labor force working in management, business, science, and arts occupations, census tracts, Texas, 2007-2011

14

Legend

ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS

Pct Business Science

0-15%

15.1 - 25%

25.1 - 35%

35.1 - 45%

45.1 - 85%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

American Community Survey, Five-

Year Sample, 2007-2011.

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment PCorp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri(Thailand), TomTom

Percent of households that are female headed with children less than 18 years of age present, no husband present, census tracts,

Texas, 2007-2011

15Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

American Community Survey, Five-

Year Sample, 2007-2011.

Legend

ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS

Female HH Children Present vc12

0-5%

5.1-10%

10.1-15%

15.1-20%

30.1-45%

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment PCorp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri(Thailand), TomTom

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Un

der

1 y

ear

4 y

ears

8 y

ears

12

yea

rs

16

yea

rs

20

yea

rs

24

yea

rs

28

yea

rs

32

yea

rs

36

yea

rs

40

yea

rs

44

yea

rs

48

yea

rs

52

yea

rs

56

yea

rs

60

yea

rs

64

yea

rs

68

yea

rs

72

yea

rs

76

yea

rs

80

yea

rs

84

yea

rs

88

yea

rs

92

yea

rs

96

yea

rs

10

0 t

o 1

04

…

Po

pu

lati

on

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

16Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

NH White Male NH White Female

17Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male

Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

18Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male

NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

19Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Percent Hispanic and Non-Hispanic White, Hays County, Texas, 2012

36.3%

57.5%

38.2%

44.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Hispanic or Latino Non-Hispanic White

Hays County Texas

20

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Zero

.5 of 2000-2010

2000-2010

Migration Scenarios

21Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-White

NH-Black

Hispanic

NH-Other

22Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using

Trended Rates, Texas

23

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / AssociateDegree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate or ProfessionalDegree

Per

cen

t o

f th

e C

ivili

an L

abo

r Fo

rce

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Constant

2030 Trended

Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration ScenarioU.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Birth rates for teenagers aged 15–19, by race and Hispanic origin of mother: United States and each and state, 2011

Rank Area All races

and origins

Non-Hispanic

white

Non-Hispanic

blackHispanic

United States 31.3 21.8 47.4 49.4

1 Arkansas 50.7 45.4 66.4 60.42 Mississippi 50.2 40.8 61.4 42.9

3 New Mexico 48.8 28.5 28.4 58.2

4 Oklahoma 47.8 41.1 58.6 68.65 Texas 46.9 27.4 47.4 65.76 Louisiana 45.1 34.5 60.2 50.77 Kentucky 43.5 42.4 51.5 57.6

8 West Virginia 43.5 44.6 40.5 22.5

24SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, Division of Vital Statistics. Preliminary data.

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

25Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections

Percent without health insurance, Texas counties, 2007-2012

26

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La

Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

MitchellNavarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PctUninsured

7-15%

15.1-20%

20.1-25%

25.1-30%

30.1-40%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2012

Demographics and Destiny

27

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530

Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us

Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us

28

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.