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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Higher Education Planning &TN Higher Education Planning &Making Opportunity AffordableMaking Opportunity Affordable
August 10, 2009August 10, 2009
Educational Attainment and Rank Among States Tennessee, 2006 (Percent)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS
NCHEMS Data
7.8
23.4
6.5
85.0
82.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Age 25-64 with Graduate/ Prof. Degree
Age 25-64 with Bachelor's or Higher
Age 25-64 with Associate Degree
Age 25-64 with HS Diploma
Age 18-24 with HS Diploma 28th
38th
48th
42nd
40th
Student Pipeline, 2006
Sources: (1) Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity; Chance for College by Age 19. (2) NCES, IPEDS 2006 Retention Rate File and 2006 Graduation Rate File. (3) U.S.
Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey.
86.0
60.0
42.0
30.0
69.0
42.0
28.0
20.0
67.0
43.0
29.0
19.0
42.9
29.323.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
Graduate fromHigh School
Directly EnterCollege
Enroll inSecond Year
GraduateWithin 150% ofProgram Time
Are Age 25-44with a Bachelor's
Degree
Best Performing StateUnited StatesTennessee
Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Higher Education RevenuesHigher Education Revenues
Total Revenue per FTE - UniversitiesInflation Adjusted
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Tuition Incr
Tuition
ARRA
State
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Federal ARRA OverviewAmerican Recovery & Reinvestment Act
$4.4B Tennessee Allocation
$947M Fiscal Stabilization Fund
$3.45B Other Programs
$172M for General Purpose - not education specific, but may include operating funds and renovation &
repair of facilities
$775M for Education - primarily for K-12 & higher education operating funds
The Goal: TennesseeReaching International
Competitiveness by 2025
55% of Population Age 25-64 with
College Degrees
Educational Attainment in Tennessee
35.8
40.4
55.0
29.8
0
20
40
60
Current % of AdultsAge 25-64 with
College Degrees, 2005
Projected % in 2025with Current AnnualDegree Production
Projected % in 2025with Current Annual
Degree Production andNet Migration
% Needed to ReachBest-Performing
Countries by 2025
Current, in 2025 with current degree production, and best-performing countries in 2025
Source: NCHEMS
How Can Tennessee Reach International Competitiveness?
Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the
Student Pipeline Measures
1,376,532
1,068,576
117,175
45,667
30,704
714,780
157,205
3,045
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000
Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production
Additional Degrees from Population Growth
Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents
Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025
Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025
Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student
Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above
Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)
Source: NCHEMS; 2005 ACS, PUMS
Pipeline is cumulative
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Degree Production Challenge
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Degree Production Challenge
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tennessee Policy Audit - NCHEMS
• A review of policies and practices affecting higher education access, success, and productivity.
• Data analysis
• Campus visits
• Interviews with leaders from business, legislators and Governor’s staff.
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Policy Audit Findings
• P-16/College Readiness– College Placement
– TBR DSP redesign
• Adult Education
• Finance Policy– Funding Formula
– Performance Funding
• Financial Aid & Tuition Policy
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Policy Audit Utility
• What’s already in place that TN can build on?
• How do we leverage resources most efficiently?
• Identified gaps between policies as written and as implemented.
• Highlight unintended consequences of certain policies.
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Next Steps
• 2010-2015 master plan
• Input from Legislative leaders, systems, institutions and business
• Align Performance Funding and finance policy with master plan
• www.tennessee.gov/moa
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Higher Education Planning &TN Higher Education Planning &Making Opportunity AffordableMaking Opportunity Affordable
August 10, 2009August 10, 2009
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Annual Percent Change in State Appropriations
8.0%10.1%
2.6% 2.0%
-1.4%
6.4%
1.9%3.1% 2.5% 2.6%
-1.5%
3.1% 3.7%
7.5%6.4%
-7.6%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
State Appropriations & ARRA
Higher education operating support levelsData excludes lottery program and certain administrative and other units.
2005-06 $1,110.9M (State Funding MOE requirement)2007-08 $1,276.0M (Funding Target)2008-09 (post reversion) $1,193.6M2009-10 (Proposed) $1,047.6M
Allocation of New FundsFunding Current or State Funds Federal Funds TotalTarget Proposed for MOE for Stabilization Funds
2008-09 $1,276.0M $1,193.6M $0 $82.4M $82.4M2009-10 $1,276.0M $1,047.6M $63.3M $165.1M $228.4M2010-11 $1,276.0M $1,047.6M $63.3M $165.1M $228.4MTotals $126.6M $412.6M $539.2M
Additional Degrees Needed to Reach International Competitiveness (55%) by 2025
(367
,784
)
504,
547
Ver
mon
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Dak
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Ham
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awar
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min
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awai
iM
aine
Con
nect
icut
Ala
ska
Idah
oW
est
Virgi
nia
New
Mex
ico
Misso
uri
Okl
ahom
aM
ississ
ippi
Illin
ois
Mar
ylan
dW
isco
nsin
Ore
gon
Penn
sylv
ania
Virgi
nia
Was
hing
ton
Indi
ana
Ala
bam
aSo
uth
Car
olin
aArk
ansa
sKen
tuck
yM
ichi
gan
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Jer
sey
Loui
sian
aNev
ada
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oTen
ness
eeNor
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arol
ina
Geo
rgia
Arizo
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orid
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ifor
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Tex
as
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h D
akota
Mass
ach
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York
Dis
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Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Age Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will
Leave Gaps in More than 30 States
2,7888,89810,875
23,54224,74125,32628,65934,54737,70639,43644,75747,42053,57453,995
62,33265,853
74,752110,495112,681114,375115,120
122,061132,748
159,765186,640
204,814287,565
307,956320,720
560,688
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
IndianaMissouri
ConnecticutMarylandWyomingGeorgia
HawaiiMontana
IdahoMaine
WisconsinNew Mexico
MichiganOregon
OklahomaAlaska
West VirginiaAlabama
South CarolinaOhio
MississippiArizona
North CarolinaKentuckyArkansasLouisiana
NevadaTennesseeNew Jersey
CaliforniaFloridaTexas 1,333,645
893,504
In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close the gap with even best
performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back into the education system and on track to
attaining college degrees.
Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) Tennessee
3,062,326 Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%)
933,034 Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees
2,129,292 Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025)
1,127,850 Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production