Telecom Trends 010808

8/4/2019 Telecom Trends 010808

1/26

Trends in Telecommunications

r. an anu asDale Montrone

Prosit Mukherjee

TranSwitch Corporation Proprietary & Confidential

Presented in VLSI 2008

Conference in Hyderabad, India

January 8, 2008


2/26

Presentation Thesis

The world will be increasingly Wire-less

Especially in access space

Home Gateway / Femtocell will be pervasive WiFi interface to the client / Handset

-

WiMAX and LTE will rival X-DSL / Cable modem in cost /

performance

Intelligence will migrate to Handset / Home Gateway

Expert Systems and AI Concepts Will Be Incorporated In Handsets

ow power es gn process w om na e e

semiconductor industry

These trends will have impact throughout the

TranSwitch Corporation Proprietary & Confidential2

semiconductor industry food chain


3/26

We are Migrating to a World Without Wire!

nWiMAXVoice

Caching

eSta

ti

WiFi Based

Home Gatewa

DateX-DSL

ss/Bas

Network

LTE

Acce

Legacy Wire Line



4/26

Intelligence Will Migrate More to the Handset

Starting in 1992 with

Basic Handsets

Intelligence is Moving to the

Handset (2007)

Address Book

Calculator

Alarm ClockCamera

Bluetooth

Wireless LAN

Windows

GPS

Mobile TV

MP3 Gaming

MPEG4 Software Apps

1- NEC Cellstar 500 (1992)

2- Nokia2110 (1994)

3- Nokia 5120 (1998)

4- Kyocera 2135 (2002)

5- Audiovox CDM8300 (2002)

6- Samsun SCH-A650 2004

1- Blackberry Curve2- Samsung Blackjack

3- Apple IPhone

4- Palm Treo



5/26

Effect of Intelligence migration!

nWiMAX

Voice

Caching

Stati

WiFi Based

Home Gatewa

DataX-DSL

s/

Bas

Network

LTE

Acce

Legacy Wire Line

High Speed Interface Low Speed Interface


- AI / Expert Systems Will Be Used


6/26

Standardized Core and Access Network Elements

CoreATCA and MicroTCA

PurposeAccess Box/

Network

to develop off-the-shelf

HW/SW solutions

WindowsNTase a ons

Femtocell Specialized/Custom

Linux

Specialized Handset

ar ware an o ware

Windows MobilePalm OS

Blackberry OS

Short Product Life-cycle will be the Norm



7/26

Semiconductor Technology in the Wire-less Food Chain

Cost Tech Equipment Supplier IC Supplier

Alcatel TranSwitchTranSwitch

Core 10%

ASSP

FPGAuProc

Cisco

EricsonFujitsu

Hewlett Packard

Huawei

Agere

AlteraAMCC

Fujitsu

Infineon

Access 30%ASSP

FPGA

uProc

IBM

NEC

Nortel

Sun

Intel

Mindspeed

PMC

Xilinx

Home

Gateway

FPGA

ASIC AppleLG

Motorola

Analog Devices

ARM

Freescale

Infineon

Qualcomm

Handset

IC

Programmable

Platforms

NokiaRIM/Palm

Samsung

RFMDNXP/Philips

Skyworks

ST Micro

Texas Instruments



8/26

Semiconductor Technology in the Wire-less Food Chain

Cost Tech Equipment Supplier IC Supplier

Alcatel TranSwitchTranSwitch

Core 10%

ASSP

FPGAuProc

Cisco

EricsonFujitsu

Hewlett Packard

Huawei

Agere

AlteraAMCC

Fujitsu

InfineonSHRINKING

Intelligence/

Caching

Access 30%ASSP

FPGA

uProc

IBM

NEC

Nortel

Sun

Intel

Mindspeed

PMC

Xilinx

Home

Gateway

FPGA

ASIC AppleLG

Motorola

Analog Devices

ARM

Freescale

Infineon

Qualcomm EXPANDING

Handset

IC

Programmable

Platforms

NokiaRIM/Palm

Samsung

RFMDNXP/Philips

Skyworks

ST Micro

Texas Instruments



9/26

Wire-less Issues that will Drive the Semiconductor Industry

Issues in the

Wire-less World

How the

Semiconductor

Industry will Respond

Ultra Low-Power ProcessTechnology/Low-Power

Design

Power

Package-less Packaging

Higher Levels ofPerformance

Standard Hardware and

Software PlatformsShort Product Life Cycle

Highly Programmable

Solutions

Time-to-Market


GaAs to CMOS


10/26

Low Power Processes will Dominate

Low Power will Dominate

TSMCs logic technology

roadmap introduced at the

2007 Technology Symposium

dominate the future

Through 2009 there will be

three low power nodesintroduced while general

purpose and high

performance nodes will be

combined for two nodes.



11/26

Package Technology for the Handset and Home Gateway

Packaging will go through

dramatic changes to address

the key issues of power, size,

performance and cost for the

CSR

C1B14

BlueCore4ROM

Infineon

PMB8876

S-Gold2

Intel

Infineon

M1817A11

Marvell

W8686

WLAN

Sk works

Cost break down for a typical ASICusing a flip chip is dominated by the

package

Apples iPhoneSamsung

K9MCC08USM

64GbitNANDFlash

Apple Branded

338S0297

PF38F1030W0YTO2

Wireless Flash

Memory

SKY77340 13

Package sizes are prohibitive and must

be reduced and even eliminated

Migration to Package-less Packaging

and Chip Scale technology will continue

IC Cost Breakdown

o e e u ure rec on

Apple

iPhone

40%

40%

10%10%

Package

Die

Test

Other

As the industry shifts to higher

levels of integration todays

packages will vanish



12/26

Package Cost vs. the Die Cost

IC Cost Breakdown

40%10%

Package

Die

40%

Test

Other



13/26

Package Technology for the Handset and Home Gateway

Packaging will go through

dramatic changes to address

the key issues of power, size,

performance and cost for the

CSR

C1B14

BlueCore4ROM

Infineon

PMB8876

S-Gold2

Intel

Infineon

M1817A11

Marvell

W8686

WLAN

Sk works

Cost break down for a typical ASICusing a flip chip is dominated by the

package

Apples iPhoneSamsung

K9MCC08USM

64GbitNANDFlash

Apple Branded

338S0297

PF38F1030W0YTO2

Wireless Flash

Memory

SKY77340 13

Package sizes are prohibitive and must

be reduced and even eliminated

Migration to Package-less Packaging

and Chip Scale technology will continue

IC Cost Breakdown

o e e u ure rec on

Apple

iPhone

40%

40%

10%10%

Package

Die

Test

Other

As the industry shifts to higher

levels of integration todays

packages will vanish



14/26

Access and Core Network Hardware Migrates to Standardized Platforms

Advanced TCA Standardization

Standard Blades

Standard Modules

Push for open standards

LineCards (3-16)Switch Cards (1-2)

Sync. Clock

Update channel

Base interface

Zone 3

Zone 2


-

Source: Light Reading

one


15/26

Access and Core Differentiation Migrates to Software Apps

ntiation

Differentiation Migrates to the

Software Applications

e

Differe

OS Based on Standard Linux

Standardized Hardware in the Core

CarrierGra

OS

S

t

HSource: Motorola



16/26

Specific Challenges in the Handset

The Issues

Hardware and Software

Platforms will be Deployed to

Reduce Time to Market While

Increasing Levels of

Integration, Function and

ProgrammabilityPower & Cost

Very Short Product Life Typical Platforms

Cycles

Continuous Drive to Add

Functions, Features and RF MEMSIntelligence in very short

time-frames

Must Meet Multiple Baseband Software

Geographic Marketswith Different Standards

with Little Change

Control Specializedlatform



17/26

The 70s Main Frame Brought Vertical Integration

The Vertical

Integration in the

Main Frame Domain

The End Users

Applications

ServiceLarge Corporate

Installation

I BM 3 7 0

Operating System

System Hardware

Peripherals

ASIC/CPU

Main Frames Were Sold


o arge orpora ons

and Not to the End Users


18/26

The PC Deconstructed Vertical Integration

The Horizontal Deconstruction brought by the PC

FAB ASIC/CPU System

Hardware

Peripherals Operating

S stem

Applications

TSMC

UMC

CharteredSMIC

Intel

AMD

ToshibaOpenSilicon

eSilicon

Acer

HPDell

Apple

Maxtor

Seagate

KingstonSanDisk

MicrosoftApple

Microsoft

Apple

AdobeCorel

System Integrator & Direct Sales

HP Apple

Dell

Direct Sales to the Customer

Diverse Customer Base from


Corporations to Individuals


19/26

Seamless Mobility will have a Major Socioeconomic Impact

Pre-Industrial

RevolutionPost-Industrial

Revolution

We are Returning to

a Pre-Industrial

Revolution Model

The Company Providedthe Space to Work

The Factory Provides theSpace and the Tools

The Workers Brought

Their Own Tools



20/26

Seamless Mobility will have a Major Socioeconomic Impact

Modern Society

of TodayAs more of the

intelligence migrates

to the handset it will

Post-Modern

Society

become the primary

tool of the office and

personal life

The Personal

Computer is the

Primary Tool

The workers will

bring their own toolsto the office

The Handset is the

Workers Tool

Content Provided

by Private and

certain layers within thefood-chain that are not

adding significant value

will disappearContent Provided

by Open and Public


Corporate Servers upp ers


21/26

You Must Add Value in the New World to Survive

Examples of Who Will Face

Threat in the Food Chain

Nokia

A le

The La to The Handset

Retailers Wireless Carries

The Middlemen Will Be Under Threat

- Package Vendors, Distributors, & Reps


Business Model Will Have Dramatic Change


22/26


What will happen to the Equipment

Suppliers to the Core Network?

Hardware

Manufacturers

Content

Providing access tothe content will

Standardization

New manufacturingfocused com anies

And Services

Traditionale ui ment

become a large

portion of the

Carriers business

similar to the TV

Networks

will dominate the

hardware for the

core network as

standardization

takes place

suppliers will be

forced higher in the

food chain to

system integration

to add value

Equipment Suppliers Will Become


System Integrators


23/26


What will happen to the Carriers

Business Model?

End Users

Carriers

Content Supplier

Carriers Must Give the End User Seamless


Mobility and Seamless Access to Content


24/26

What Will the World Look Like in the Future?

It will be a world without wire

It will be a Mad-berry world

Certain layers that dominate the food

chain today will disappear

And the workers will bring their own

tools to work with him



25/26

Summary

It will be a world without wire

Intelligence will migrate more to the handset Expert System and AI Concepts Will Be Incorporated

Core and access network will be based on standardizedhardware and software platforms Differentiation Will Be In Applications and Managements SWR

FPGA / ASSPs used mostly in the core and access ASSP Business Future?

Platforms concept will dominate

specialized software programmable IC's

SiGe / GaAs will face threat CMOS is IN ?

ac age- ess ac ag ng an c p sca e ec no ogy wdominate

In the End, Low-Powerwill be King!



26/26

Thank You

TranSwitch Corporation Proprietary & Confidential

Documents

Telecom Trends 010808