Telecom Seminar 5.20.06 (1)

8/8/2019 Telecom Seminar 5.20.06 (1)

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2G, 3G and Beyond An Understanding of Technology and Services

8/8/2019 Telecom Seminar 5.20.06 (1)


Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview

2G, 3G and Beyond

Market Segmentation

Network Conver gence

Market Trends

Services

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2G: Technology Summary TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access

Standardized in 1990 as IS-54

Provides 3-6 times capacity increase over AMPS (1G)

Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels)

Introduced authentication and encryption for security

GSM: Global System of Mobile communications

Standardized in 1992, based on TMDA technology

Im proved battery life over TDMA

GPRS peak data rates of 140 kbps; EDGE data rates of 180kbps

CDMA: Code Division Multiple Access Standardized in 1993 as IS-95

Provides 1.5-2 times capacity increase over TDMA

Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels)

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2G: Winners & Losers TDMA

Mar ginally better capacity than GSM, mar ginally worse battery life

No evolution path beyond 2G ± DEAD END !!

CDMA

Lots of hype on capacity, delivered on upwards of 2x capacity

im provement over TDMA/GSM

Clear evolution to 3G

GSM International Roaming and Com patibility

Clear evolution to 3G

Defacto Global Standard

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GSM: A Success Story

Growth in China

GSM subscribers in Asia Pacific reached 650GSM subscribers in Asia Pacific reached 650million in March 2006million in March 2006

(521 million March 2005 = 24.7% annual growth)(521 million March 2005 = 24.7% annual growth)

GSM growth exceeded CDMA by 11x from March 05 to March 06GSM growth exceeded CDMA by 11x from March 05 to March 06

ChinaChina

GSM grew over 54 mil subs in pastGSM grew over 54 mil subs in past12 months = over 1 million/week12 months = over 1 million/week

Cdma added under 5 mil subs inCdma added under 5 mil subs inthe same periodthe same period

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Growth in India

India reached almost 64 millionIndia reached almost 64 million

GSM subscribers at 31.03.06GSM subscribers at 31.03.06

GSM has 77.5% market shareGSM has 77.5% market share

GSM additions = 22.7 million inGSM additions = 22.7 million in12 months = over 55% growth12 months = over 55% growth

Cdma added 8 million in sameCdma added 8 million in sameperiodperiod

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Growth in Rest of World

Europe:Europe:Eastern Europe 289 million (48.9% annual growth)Eastern Europe 289 million (48.9% annual growth)

Western Europe 426 million (8.1% annual growth)Western Europe 426 million (8.1% annual growth)

Africa:Africa:146 million (62.6% annual growth)146 million (62.6% annual growth)

Middle East:Middle East:51.4 million (63.5% annual51.4 million (63.5% annual

growth)growth)

Americas:Americas:Canada and USA 85 million (35% annual growth)Canada and USA 85 million (35% annual growth)Latin America and the Caribbean 144 million (92.6% annualLatin America and the Caribbean 144 million (92.6% annual

growth)growth)

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Evolution to 3G

Drivers: Capacity, Data Speed, Cost

cdmaOnecdmaOne

GSMGSM

TDMATDMA

2G

PDCPDC

CDMA2000

1x

CDMA2000

1x

First Step into 3G

GPRSGPRS 90%

10%

EDGEEDGE

WCDMAWCDMA

3G phase 1 Evolved 3G

3GPP Core

Network

CDMA2000

1x EV/DO

CDMA2000

1x EV/DO

HSDPA/HSUPAHSDPA/HSUPA

Expected market share

EDGEEvolutionEDGEEvolution

CDMA2000

EV/DO Rev A

CDMA2000

EV/DO Rev A

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3G: Technology Summary Technology Conver gence on Wideband-CDMA

CDMA 2000

Successor to CDMA IS-95, 4 core standards ± 1xRTT, 1x EV-DO, 1x

EV-DV, 3xRTT 1xRTT provides 2x voice capacity increase over IS-95 and a peak

data rate of 144kbps

EV-DO Rev A provide peak data rates of 3.1 downlink / 1.8 uplink (800kbps typical)

UMTS Successor to GSM, based on W-CDMA

Peak data rates of up to 1920kbps (384kbps typical)

HSDPA peak data rate of up to 14.4Mbps

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3G: Winners & Losers ?? UMTS

Huge delays (ter minals availability)

Exorbitant license fees

Confusing pricing strategies & lack of com pelling services

Clear evolution path

HSxPA (Peak Data Rates), LTE (Network Sim plification)

CDMA2000

Early adoption (Korea) Com pelling peak data rates (EV-DO)

Unclear evolution path

3xRTT? WIMAX?

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UMTS Growth

Devices Penetration

Source: GSA survey published February 28, 2006

315 Devices

38 Suppliers

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UMTS Growth

Subscriber Penetration

Over 55 million WCDMAOver 55 million WCDMAsubs at 31 March 06subs at 31 March 06

Approaching 140%Approaching 140%yearly growthyearly growth

Over 3 million addsOver 3 million addsmonthly in last 6 monthsmonthly in last 6 months

WCDMA gained over WCDMA gained over 10% share of mobile10% share of mobilegrowth in Asia Q1 06growth in Asia Q1 06

WCDMA gained 1 in 3WCDMA gained 1 in 3new connections innew connections in

Western Europe in Q1 06Western Europe in Q1 06

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Global Subscriber Counts

0

0.5 Bn

1 Bn

1.5 Bn

2 Bn

2.5 Bn

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

CDMA

GSM

PHS

W-CDMA

Note:GSM Emerging Market Handset (EMH) initiative = 80% of Global Populationwith Wireless Service by 2010, based on sub $30 handsets17 countries targeted = 1.8 Bn people ; not included in current sub counts

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«and Beyond Technology Conver gence on OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division

Multiple Access)

WIMAX Standardized by IEEE 802.16, evolution of 802.11 (Wi-Fi)

Im proved bandwidth, encryption and coverage over WiFi Theoretical peak data rates of 70Mbps (practical peak ~2Mbps)

Im proved QoS better enables applications such as VoIP or IPTV

Ideal application is for ³last mile´ connectivity to the home or business

Intel plans to em bed WiMAX chips as part of µIntel Inside¶

L3GTE/HSOPA

Early standardization work starts in 3GPP R8 Im proved bandwidth, latency over UMTS/HSxPA

Radio technology based on MIMO-OFDM, peak data rates of up to 70Mbps

Network sim plification

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Wireless Access Evolution

Broadband Broadband

New ServicesNew Services

Efficiency Efficiency

Broadband

Subscribers

Voice

C overageC overage

Mobility Mobility

Voice Quality Voice Quality

Portability Portability C apacity C apacity

Broadband Broadband Network Network

SimplificationSimplification

C ost of C ost of

OwnershipOwnership

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2G, 3G and Beyond

Market Segmentation


Market Trends

Services

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Market Segments

Cordless

W iMAX 16e

HSDPA to OFDM EV-DO to OFDM

WiFi

Local

Fixed

Voice Broadband

Cellular

WiMAX 16dDSL / CablePOTS

802.11a/b/g802.11n MIMO

Mesh

Dialup

2.5G

Mobile

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Operator ObjectivesVoice+

Growth to

W ireless

Data+

Growth to

Broadband

Network Goals are Similar

Differentiation on Access & Business goals

Mobile Operators Subscriber growth

Wireless Data / 3G

Wireline Substitution

Fixed Operators Broadband Line Growth

Revenue Protection

Cable, Satellite, ISP

Network Leverage New Market Penetration

Video Triple Play

DriversW ireless

Broadband

Core IP

Customer Lifestyle

Search for Growth

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Internet PSTN

R eliable, Scalable, Secure

IP

SGSN

PDSN

WLAN

GGSN

HA

PDG

IP

DSLAM

BRAS

PDG

WIMAX

WLAN

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Service Control

Presence / GLMS

Applications

R4

CDMAPSTN

MediaResources

TDM & PacketInterworking

PDF

HSS/AAA

Peer IPNetwork

Access Network

IP/MPLS Core

MultimediaServices

MessagingServices

Web / WAPServices

StreamingServices

MG15000

MGCF(CS2000)

CallSession

Controller

MRF

Audio/Video

PDG

WLAN

ASN

CSN

ASNWiMAX

GGSN

GPRSUMTS

EASGW

ASGHSOPAOFDM/MIMO

BRAS

PDG

GGSN

ASN

CSN

ASGW

Network Conver gence - IMS

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Network Enablers Char ging

A bility to provide differentiated char ging based flexible usagemodels, including time / data / volume

Quality of Service A bility to provide differentiated service, e.g. Olym pic levels: gold /

silver / bronze

Policy Management

A bility to make personalized policy decisions based on subscriber,

access and content Security

A bility to provide secure access and ³clean pipes´ for contentdelivery

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2G, 3G and Beyond

Market Segmentation


Market Trends

Services

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Market Trends Media Conver gence ± Multiple P lay

Dual Play: High-Speed Internet & Fixed Line

Triple Play: Dual Play + TV

Quadruple Play: Triple Play + Wireless

Challenge: Consolidated Invoice and Price Points Fixed Mobile Conver gence

Dual Mode connectivity Cellular / Cordless (DECT, ADSL/Bluetooth)

WLA N / WWA N

Challenge: Technology standardization

MVNO ± Mobile Virtual Network Operator Wireless Service Reseller, wholesales access from wireless operators

Discount & Lifestyle MVNO¶s

Segment, Product, Utilization Driven

Challenge: Market Saturation & Service Differentiation

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Market Trends (continued) M-Commerce ± Electronic Commerce using Mobile Phones

Leverage ubiquity of mobile phones to make transactions

Current payment methods: premium calling #¶s, phone bill invoice, credit card

Strong interest in key industries: banking, sports & entertainment, travel, retail

Challenge: Security, Ter minal Capabilities,Access Speeds Multimedia ± use of several media types to convey infor mation

Effective infor mation delivery across many disciplines: art, education,telecommunications, medicine

IMS enables multimedia services for mobile users VoIP

Challenge: User Interface, For m Factor, lack of ³killer app´

Presence ± Always on, always connected Com bine Mobility & Reachability

Effectively bring Popularity of IM to mobile phones (AOL, Yahoo!, MSN,Skype)

Opportunity for standardization & interworking based on SIP/SIMPLE

Challenge: Standardization & always on connectivity

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Market Trends

The next 5 years in North America More substitution of mobile and wireless technologies for fixed lines

30% US homes will have only cellular or broadband access, driven by youthwho see no value in fixed lines for telephony

Lower churn

Due to consolidation, better pricing and marketing plans, higher qualitynetworks

More mobile e-mail Driven by popularity, proliferation of smartphones, and ease of setup and use

Greater adoption of smartphones Defined as phones that run open OS¶s, e.g. Microsoft, driven by business

users,

Increased mobile advertising Mobile advertising needed for added revenue generation; successful use will

require balancing intrusive nature of unsolicited ads & value to the end user

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Market Trends

The next 5 years in North America The growth of mobile entertainment

Handsets are increasing designed for entertainment with integrated cameras,MP3 players ± trend will be to partner with content providers to drive usage(Google, Yahoo!, A pple)

Greater market penetration by mobile technologies and slower connectiongrowth NorthAmerica will become increasingly saturated ± will drive price

com petition, flexible and tar geted tariff plans, and differentiation

More conver ged services based on the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) Will become common network infrastructure, will enable fixed and mobile

service bundles

The rise of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) Will add value by offering differentiation

More mobile data applications for enterprises Increased email, as well as presence and location functions, will drive up data

usage

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Services Prepaid

Segment driven, will increase with MVNO¶s

SMS Remains extremely popular, key driver is use of short-code num bers

Push-To-Talk

Segment driven, slow take amongst general consumers MMS

Slow adoption due to user interface, will increase due to interoperability im provements andintegration with m-commerce

Downloads Ring-tones is #1 revenue generator but slowing, Gaming is on the rise

Video Video clip services are emer ging, pricing is typically subscription-based

Music Music stores increasingly common, need com petitive pricing, will leverage MP3 integration

Radio Satellite radio offers resell XM and Sirius

Adult CTIA recommendation for socially responsible access to content; penetration expected to start in

2008

Documents

Telecom Seminar 5.20.06 (1)