2008 Indust

ry R

eport

Produced by the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development and Greentech Media

Sorin GramaElizabeth Wayman

Travis Bradford

Concentrating Solar Power

-Technology, Cost, and Markets

A guide to the impact CSP technologies will have on the solar

and broader renewable energy markets through 2020

Executive Summary

About

Concentrating Solar Power 2008

Our goal is to accelerate the deployment of

socially-benefi cial sustainable technologies,

including those of energy, water, and

food, by educating industry participants,

advocates, and policymakers about their

advantages. We achieve our mission by

collecting and disseminating reliable

data, quantitative analysis, and practical

information about these industries.

Today, the Institute strives to be the world’s

leading source of publicly available primary

data on the photovoltaic (PV) supply chain

and end-markets through a series of data

collection and outreach projects and the

publication of the industry’s oldest newslet-

ter, PVNews™.

Greentech Media is an integrated online me-

dia company designed to deliver the highest-

quality content in the industry, whether it is

research, news or critical networking events.

We are founded by a team of profession-

als who have extensive experience in online

media and technology who have developed

a publishing model ideally suited for this na-

scent and critical market.

Our editors have made Greentech Media the

go-to source for independent and insightful

news in the greentech space. Our research

team is adept at creating technology- and

trend-focused research based on a combina-

tion of quantitative and qualitative data. Our

extensive content and industry expertise form

the foundation for focused, industry-leading

events on the latest technology topics in the

greentech market. Greentech Media is head-

quartered in Cambridge, Mass., with opera-

tions in New York City and San Francisco.

1280 Massachusetts Ave, Suite 203

Cambridge, MA 02138

www.prometheus.org

Phone: +1-617-868-0337

1132 Massachusetts Ave

Cambridge, MA 02138

www.greentechmedia.com

Phone: +1-617-312-3866

1. Concentrating Solar Rising 1

2. CSP Technology Overview 92.1 CSP System Components 9

2.2 Overview of CSP Systems 13

2.3 Trough and LFR 16

2.4 Tower 21

2.5 Dish-Engine 25

2.6 Dish CPV 27

2.7 Lens CPV 29

2.8 Low Concentration PV 31

2.9 Non-Tracking CPV 32

2.10 Representative Installations - Currently In Operation 33

2.11 Representative Installations – Under Construction and In Planning 35

3. Markets for CSP 393.1 Large, Medium and Small Installations 40

3.2 Residential, Commercial and Utility Markets 41

3.3 Distributed vs. Central Generation Markets 44

3.4 Geographical Markets 45

4. CSP Industry Overview 514.1 Current and Planned Capacity 52

4.2 CSP Industry Value Chain 53

4.3 Technology Distribution of the CSP Industry 56

4.4 Geographical Distribution of the CSP Industry 57

4.5 Selected CSP Industry Profi les 58

5. Financial Analysis & Projections 635.1 Capital Equipment Cost 63

5.2 Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) 65

5.3 The Adoption of CSP Technology 68

5.4 Other benefi ts and Risks 78

5.5 Future Outlook 80

Appendices 81Concentrator Technologies 81

Tracking Systems 87

Energy Storage Technologies 89

Power Conversion Technologies 93

Complete list of Announced CSP Installations 97

Trough/LFR Industry Roster 101

Tower Industry Roster 109

Dish-Engine Industry Roster 113

Dish CPV Industry Roster 117

Lens CPV Industry Roster 121

LCPV Industry Roster 129

Non-Tracking CPV Industry Roster 133

LCOE Value Analysis 137

i

Contents

iPV Technology, Performance, and Cost - 2007 Update

ii PV Technology, Performance, and Cost - 2007 Update

FIGURES

Figure 1-1. Markets and applications for solar power 1

Figure 1-2. LCOE trend over time at two different locations in United States 4

Figure 1-3. Number of CSP companies targeting each market segment 5

Figure 1-4. Solar technology penetration based on location and market segments 6

Figure 2-1. Concentrating Solar Power System Components. 9

Figure 2-2. Sample Concentrator Technologies. 10

Figure 2-3. Daily Output Effect of tracking on the PV and CPV output 10

Figure 2-4. Effect of Tracking and Concentration on the Solar Resource Available to PV and CSP

Technologies. 11

Figure 2-5. Production Profi le of a CST Installation with 6 hours of Thermal Energy Storage. 12

Figure 2-6. Land Use of CSP Technologies 15

Figure 2-7. Oil-Indirect Steam Generation Trough Plant Schematic. 18

Figure 2-8. Direct Steam Generation LFR Plant Schematic. 19

Figure 2-9. Organic Rankine Cycle Trough Installation Schematic. 19

Figure 2-10. Central Tower Confi guration. 21

Figure 2-11. Rendering of Decentralized Towers. 22

Figure 2-12. Direct Steam Generation Tower Schematic. 23

Figure 2-13. Indirect Steam Generation Plant Schematic. 23

Figure 2-14. Volumetric Solar Receiver for Compressed Air Gas Turbine Towers. 24

Figure 2-15. Diagram of Dish-Stirling System. 26

Figure 2-16. Dish-Brayton System. 26

Figure 2-17. Large Dish CPV Systems. 28

Figure 2-18. Medium Dish CPV System. 28

Figure 2-19. Small Dish CPV Systems. 28

Figure 2-20. Lens CPV Tracking Panels. 30

Figure 2-21. Lens CPV Individually Tracking Facets. 30

Figure 2-22. Low Concentration Photovoltaic Systems. 31

Figure 2-23. Non-Tracking CPV Panels. 32

Figure 3-1. Markets and applications for solar power 39

Figure 3-2. Technology mix in small, medium and large installations – 2008 40

Figure 3-3. Typical electricity load profi le in California and type of power plant required 42

Figure 3-4. The effect of load shifting and peak shaving on electricity demand (courtesy Chevron) 43

Figure 3-5. US Electricity Market. 44

Figure 3-6. Number of CSP companies targeting each market segment 45

Figure 3-7. Solar radiation varies with latitude and location 47

Figure 3-8. World insolation map (courtesy SunWize Solar) and most favorable areas for CSP 48

Figure 3-9. Geographical Demand for Renewable Energy in the US 48

Figure 3-10. Optimal technology selection by location 49

Figure 4-1. Announced Planned and Operational CSP Capacity by Technology 51

Figure 4-2. CSP Installations – Distribution by Technology in 2012 53

Figure 4-3. CSP Industry Value Chain 53

Figure 4-4. Companies Developing CSP Technologies. 56

Figures

iiiPV Technology, Performance, and Cost - 2007 Update

Figure 4-5. CSP Company Activity by Technology. 57

Figure 4-6: Solar Thermal Installations Installed or in Construction by Region 58

Figure 4-7. CSP Companies by Location. 58

Figure 4-8. Trough and LFR Industry Value Chain and Signifi cant Participants. 60

Figure 4-9. Lens CPV Value Chain. 61

Figure 5-1: Comparison of capital equipment cost for scale of different solar technologies 63

Figure 5-2: Comparison of today’s LCOE at different locations 66

Figure 5-3: Comparison of 2015 LCOE at different locations 67

Figure 5-4: LCOE trend over time at two different locations in United States 68

Figure 5-5. Average Energy Demand and Average Energy Generation by PV Systems in July in California

1999-2003. 70

Figure 5-6. Average Wholesale Electricity Price and Average Energy Generation by PV Systems in

Northern California July 1999 - 2003. 70

Figure 5-7. Potential Value of Distributed Generation CSP Electricity under Flat-Rate and TOU or RTP

Pricing. 71

Figure 5-8. Wholesale Energy Prices and Production Profi les of PV and CPV systems. 72

Figure 5-9. Load Shifting and Peak Shaving Achieved by Large-Scale Solar Installation. 73

Figure 5-10. Wholesale Electricity Prices and CSP Production Profi les. 74

Figure 5-11. Load Shifting and Peak Shaving of a CST Installation with 3.5 hours of Storage. 75

Figure 5-12: Projected growth of solar installations 80

Figure 5-13: Solar technology penetration based on location and market segments 80

APPENDIX

Figure 1. Parabolic Trough Concentrator. 82

Figure 2. Linear Fresnel Refl ector. 83

Figure 3. Parabolic Dish Concentrators. 83

Figure 4. Heliostat Solar Field Concentrator. 84

Figure 5. Fresnel Lens Concentrator. 84

Figure 6. Non-Tracking Concentrators. 85

Figure 7. Low-Concentration Refl ective Concentrators. 85

Figure 8. 2-Axis Tracking System. 87

Figure 9. 2-Tank Indirect Thermal Energy Storage in Andasol-1. 89

Figure 10. Heat Transfer Fluid Manifold through a Solid Medium TES System. 90

Figure 11. 2-Tank Direct Thermal Energy Storage. 91

Figure 12. 1-Tank Thermocline Thermal Energy Storage. 91

Figure 13. 1-Tank Steam Accumulator Thermal Energy Storage. 92

Figure 14. Silicon Photovoltaic Power Converters. 93

Figure 15. Multi-Junction Photovoltaic Power Converters. 93

Figures

iv PV Technology, Performance, and Cost - 2007 Update

TABLES

Table 1-2. Complete CSP Systems. 3

Table 2-1. Complete CSP Systems. 14

Table 2-2. Technical Characteristics of CSP Systems affecting LCOE 16

Table 2-3. Market Considerations of CSP Technologies. 17

Table 2-4. Trough & LFR Plant Technology Comparison. 20

Table 2-5. Trough and LFR Commercialization Summary. 21

Table 2-6. Tower Confi guration Comparison 22

Table 2-7. Tower Technology Comparison. 25

Table 2-8. Tower Commercialization Summary. 25

Table 2-9. Dish-Engine Technology Comparison. 25

Table 2-10. Dish-Engine Commercialization Summary. 27

Table 2-11. Dish CPV Technology Comparison. 27

Table 2-12. Dish CPV Commercialization Summary. 29

Table 2-13. Lens CPV Technology Comparison. 29

Table 2-14. Lens CPV Commercialization Summary. 30

Table 2-15. LCPV System Summary. 31

Table 2-16. LCPV Commercialization Status. 31

Table 2-17. Non-Tracking CPV Technology Comparison. 32

Table 2-18. Non-Tracking CPV Commercialization Summary 33

Table 2-19. Solar Thermal Installations Currently in Operation. 33

Table 2-20. CPV Installations Currently in Operation. 34

Table 2-21. Representative CSP Installations. 35

Table 2-22. Major CSP installations under construction as of January 2008. 36

Table 2-23. Representative CSP Installations in the Pipeline. 37

Table 4-1. Main Fully-Integrated CSP Companies and Capacity in Operation or Announced. 54

Table 4-2. Key CSP Component Suppliers. 55

Table 4-3. Emerging Fully Integrated CSP Companies. 55

Table 5-1. Cost assumptions for LCOE projections 64

Table 5-2. Solar radiation for select cities in United States. 66

Table 5-3. RTP Weighted Average Wholesale Prices of Electricity Produced by CST Installations with

Varying Amounts of Storage. 75

Table 5-4. Characteristics of CST Installations and Competing Power Plants 76

Table 5-5. Progress Toward Economic Viability 78

Table 5-6. Hierarchy of Adoption of CSP Technologies 79

APPENDIX

Table 1. Concentrator Technology Comparison. 81

Tables

Concentrating the sun’s rays in order to harness its great power for indus-

trial purposes has a recorded history that dates back to Archimedes, but for

thousands of years other sources of industrial energy have dominated the

energy landscape. Just in the last hundred years, the development of indus-

trial grids for the delivery of cheap electricity has relied on coal, oil, natural

gas, hydro-electric dams, and nuclear reactors to power prime movers in a

predominantly large, central station confi guration that shipped electricity

to users over transmission and distribution lines. Combined, such generators

make up over 95% of modern electricity generation capacity. But pressures

continue to mount on the electricity industry – including rising cost of fos-

sil fuels and systemic pressure on the ability to deliver of fuel and power to

where it is needed, and increasing realization of the environmental and na-

tional security repercussions of how energy is harnessed. These pressures are

forcing modern industrial economies to look for additional sources of vital

energy - and they are increasingly looking to the sun.

Today, a number of specifi c drivers are increasing the attractiveness of har-

nessing solar resources for electricity generation, and many approaches are

being developed and commercialized. Benefi ts include:

Solar electricity represents a highly popular form of new energy in •

studies of public perception and expectation of future contribution

to the energy mix.

SECTI

ON

1

1Concentrating

Solar Rising

PV Technology, Performance, and Cost - 2007 Update

Figure 1-1: Markets and applications for solar power

Category Small Medium Large

Installation Size < 10kW 10 to 100kW 100kW to 1 MW 1 to 10MW 10 to 100MW > 100 MW

Technology Mix in Each Market 100% PV 99% PV, 1% CSP 20% PV, 80% CSP

2007 Share of Worldwide Solar Market(Installed Capacity and % of Installed Capacity)

7GW (84%) 0.7 GW (9%) 0.5 GW (7%)

Installation TypeDistributed Generation

Central Generation

Markets Served

ResidentialCommercial

UtilityBase (50%). Intermediate (40%), Peak (10%)

PV Based

Non Dispatchable

Non-Tracking PVTracking PV

CPV

Thermal Based

Dispatchable (with storage)

Dish-EngineTroughTowerLFR

Installation Size <10kW 10 to 100 kW 100kW to 1MW 1 to 10 MW 10 to 100 MW > 100 MW

Legend: best suitedsuitable

2

1 Concentrating Solar Rising

Concentrating Solar Power - 2008

Solar electricity is clean, often with very little environmental im-•

pact, particularly in the greenhouse gas emitting dimension that is

driving much of the international debate on climate change.

Solar electricity is local, allaying the risks of access to and physical •

and economic control over critical energy supplies.

Solar electricity is available to nearly everyone worldwide at some •

cost and using some available technology – a statement that is

not true of nearly every other renewable energy technology being

pursued from wind to waves to geothermal.

Finally, the available solar resources are thousands of times more •

than human society consumes each year, providing ample oppor-

tunity for increasing per capita energy use – even in a world of

simultaneously increasing population and wealth.

Among solar electricity generation technologies, photovoltaic (PV) tech-

nologies have seen the largest growth in interest over the last few years.

As shown in Figure 1-1, PV has emerged primarily at the very smallest type

of deployment – often on the home or commercial building and provid-

ing power on the customer’s side of the meter at a relatively high (retail)

value. By 2008, PV has nearly eight GW of cumulative global grid-tied

installations and is expected to grow by another three to four GW in 2008

- and growth should increase in subsequent years. Driven by various policy

programs in Japan, Germany, the US, Spain, and many other countries,

PV is increasingly seen as a viable alternative for electricity generation –

growing in volume globally second only to wind power among renewable

energy technologies and at a faster percentage.

Policy-led demand for solar energy and global growth rates of 40 to 50 per-

cent each year has led to recent supply bottlenecks in PV manufacturing,

most notably in the highly capital- and energy-intensive polysilicon feed-

stock needed for 90 percent of the PV produced today. Large scale utility

and industrial users are increasingly interested in solar technologies that may

be more useable in central station applications – including those that can be

more rapidly scalable, inherently “dispatchable” or predictable, and possibly

those generating heat versus direct electricity to supplement existing heat-

driven power plants. Many potential concentrating solar technologies are

being pursued in an attempt to meet these needs.

The two great challenges to using more solar electricity remain its perceived

high cost and the nature of solar to be both periodic and not absolutely re-

liable, a characteristic that makes its use in conjunction with modern grids

problematic. This report looks at all of the available concentrating solar

power technologies in or near commercialization and the methods of stor-

ing and dispatching them, being driven by dozens of companies around the

world. Using baseline PV installations and economics as a benchmark for

evaluating performance and future economics, it shows how the different

system characteristics create different value offerings for different cus-

tomers. In the end, what this report fi nds is that each concentrating solar

technology is suited to slightly different needs, but that many technologies

have interesting market opportunities in the years ahead for those that can

understand how this exciting market will develop over time.

3

1Concentrating Solar Rising

Concentrating Solar Power - 2008

1.1 Technology

The technologies examined in this report include all current available and

potential technologies near commercialization in concentrating solar power

(CSP) for electricity generation. Looking at Table 1-1, these technologies

break down into two general categories.

The fi rst is Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST), which includes those concen-

trating the sun’s energy on a thermal conductor and then using that heat

to move an engine or turbine. These usually take the form of a large power

plant and can concentrate using mirrors in a line or around a point. The

mirror array can be concave or fl at - concentrating from 80 suns for the

linear arrays (including trough systems and LFR) to over 1500 suns on the

point arrays (including tower and dish-engine systems), with corresponding

temperatures and variations of technology components to convert the heat

into useful electricity. Because they generate heat, CST systems have rela-

tively more costs in the operation and maintenance versus PV systems, but

create the advantage of potentially storing the heat or using it in a hybrid

confi guration to make the power dispatchable – a signifi cant advantage in

integrating the power into modern grid architectures.

Alternatively, Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV) technologies concentrate

the sun’s energy directly onto high effi ciency PV materials to directly create

electricity. These technologies use both mirrors and lenses and can be de-

ployed in confi gurations that range from large systems to mid-sized systems,

with some technologies even able to be done at small modular scale similar

to traditional PV modules. CPV technologies tend to have fewer, but often

still meaningful, tracking and other moving parts than CST systems, reducing

relative operating costs. However, the direct electricity generation compli-

cates the harnessing and storage of electricity with today’s electric storage

technology and limits CPV’s ability to be dispatchable. Still, substituting mir-

rors or lenses for expensive PV in systems has the potential to reduce the

total system cost when scale and technology improve from today’s levels.

1.2 Cost

Regardless of which CSP technology is chosen, correctly assessing the cost of

solar electricity and further engineering to bring it down over time is their

key challenge. The cost of solar electricity – measured using a standardized

Table 1-2: Complete CSP Systems

1 1 Technology

CSP systems can be made of any combination of concentrators and power converters. However, distinct combinations have emerged and are summarized in this table. These technologies are broken into the two main categories of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) and Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV) technologies. While this table shows the degree of variation between CSP technologies, another level of variation exists within each of these technologies that will be explored in the following sections.

CSP Type System Concentrator Technology Power Conversion

CST

Trough Parabolic Trough Rankine Cycle

LFR Linear Fresnel Refl ector Rankine Cycle

Tower Heliostat Solar Field Rankine / Brayton Cycle

Dish-Engine Parabolic Dish Stirling / Brayton Engine

CPV

Dish CPV Parabolic Dish Multi-Junction or Silicon PV

Lens CPV Lens of Fresnel Lens Multi-Junction PV

LCPV Low Concentration Refl ector Silicon PV

Non-Tracking PV Non-Tracking Concentrator Multi-Junction or Silicon PV

4

1 Concentrating Solar Rising

Concentrating Solar Power - 2008

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) – is dependent

on many variables related to the site and the tech-

nology chosen. These factors are all considered in

determining relative economics herein.

In terms of the location, it turns out that latitude

of where the installation exists matters a great

deal. Latitude is important for two reasons. First,

total available irradiance has a strong impact of

the economics of all solar electricity generation,

but particularly for concentrating solar where

fi xed costs and operation and maintenance is less

scalable with the size of the system versus tradi-

tional PV. Second, the reliance of most CSP sys-

tems on tracking systems and the incident angle

of light at different latitudes has a fi rst order ef-

fect on the LCOE. Offsetting effects of atmospher-

ic interference and optimal tracking confi guration

does more acutely limit the range of locations that

CSP technologies can optimally use to high sun

and middle latitude applications, but fortunately

the power needs in those locations is vast com-

pared to CSP’s current penetration.

From a technology standpoint, the largest eco-

nomic hurdle CSP technologies must overcome is

their reliance on only the direct irradiation por-

tion of the solar resource, or the part of the light

that is perpendicular to the collector – known as

Direct Normal Irradiation, or DNI. Depending on

location, DNI can range from 60 to 80 percent of

the total available light that is available to fl at-

plate PV, and maximizing its capture is what requires the use of complex and

precise tracking systems for most CSP technologies. This penalty is offset by

higher effi ciency of conversion by both CST and CPV technologies, but has

interesting ramifi cations on system design and technology choice across dif-

ferent locations and users.

Regardless of the LCOE that the various technologies can achieve today, the

most interesting analysis is how that will change over time with cost im-

provements and scale of production. Figure 1-2 shows how the cost for

both CST and CPV - as well as traditional PV - will change through 2020, and

it shows this comparison for two different locations in the US – Tucson and

Seattle. The assumptions that go into these forecasts are expanded in the

report, and alternative methods of calculation are provided.

In the end, however, scale of production matters to determine which tech-

nologies and companies will be best placed to take advantage of the mar-

kets. This is because LCOE will be a function of the cumulative deployment

of a technology and the current scale of its installations and experience of

its installers. Unfortunately for any emerging CSP technology, PV’s dropping

component and system prices and current scale advantages will create a de-

clining hurdle that they will have to match in order to become viable.

Figure 1-2: LCOE trend over time at two different locations

in United States

5

1Concentrating Solar Rising

Concentrating Solar Power - 2008

1.3 Market

Understanding the cost of

solar is not enough, the value

of the electricity generated

versus the cost is what will

drive the market economics

and technology adoption.

Though often thought of as

expensive to generate, so-

lar electricity technologies

do create electricity at the

most valuable time of the

day – during peak daylight

hours. Therefore, solar en-

ergy is by its nature a high

value electricity at both the

wholesale and retail levels,

displacing the need for ex-

pensive (often) natural gas

fi red intermediate power

generators that are subject

to substantial swings in fuel

prices.

How the power is purchased is also important, and two methods have

emerged – 1) retail/commercial customers who can buy power to replace

the power they currently purchase from utilities, and (2) the utility them-

selves either directly or through wholesale power markets. Figure 1-3

shows the number of companies that this report tracks that are attempt-

ing to serve each of those markets.

The utility market is the most popular market for CSP companies, for both

technological and scale reasons. Installations have recently been an-

nounced for thousands of MW of peak capacity of CSP, and many more are

being considered. Utilities are looking to CSP to help them meet Renew-

able Portfolio Standards (RPS) set by states and nations, and CSP instal-

lations allow for a very rapid volume ramp to meet those goals. In such

cases, utilities often plan to purchase the power directly under a Power

Purchase Agreement, but longer term it is possible that CSP providers can

sell directly into the wholesale power markets – particularly when storage

allows for dispatchability and shifting of loads to the most valuable times

of the day – a distinct advantage to today’s CST technologies with thermal

storage described in an Appendix to the report.

The changing policy landscape will also likely infl uence, and accelerate,

the deployment of CSP. Changes and enhancements of RPS programs,

rising value for carbon offsets, and increasing comfort with the reliability

and effi cacy of the technologies will combine to further support solar

electricity in general and CSP in specifi c. One note of caution is that

unpredictable changes or volatility in policy may have correspondingly

volatile effects on CSP deployment over short time frames.

Figure 1-3: Number of CSP companies targeting each market segment

The utility market is the most popular market for CSP companies, for both technological and market-oriented reasons. While some technologies are confi ned to the utility market, modular technologies are not, but are mostly focusing on the utility market with plans to expand to distributed residential and commercial markets.

6

1 Concentrating Solar Rising

Concentrating Solar Power - 2008

1.4 Conclusion

Our research has led to three main conclusions about the impact of CSP

on the solar energy industry and the broader energy markets in the next

decade.

CSP clearly has a role to play over the next decade With the current plants, those in construction, those under consideration,

and the pace of development, it is clear that some tens of GW of cumula-

tive production over the next decade – possibly as much as 50 GW – of

CSP capacity will be installed by 2020. This would represent somewhere

between $80 Billion and $200 Billion of aggregate investment in the sec-

tor over the next 12 years. In just the last six months, over $30 Billion in

new plants have been proposed, and many of these will be constructed

in the next several years.

Although PV is projected to have a lower cost than CST in the medium to

long term, CST will play a role in utility scale installations due to storage

capabilities and other benefi ts to utilities and societies. Trough technolo-

gies will be implemented fi rst and will experience incremental technical

improvements and cost reductions. CPV technologies will suffer from

slower ramping and scale, but should become competitive at the utility

scale within the next decade, and some recently emerging non-tracking

and low concentration CPV technologies may have an interesting impact

at the distributed residential and commercial level as well.

PV will remain dominant in the distributed market

That said, fl at plate PV for distributed applications and some fi xed or

single-axis tracking systems for central systems will remain econnomi-

cally competitive. PV has seen limited price declines for its components

and systems in the last few years due to some feedstock constraints, but

innovation and additional capital are going to remedy those problems

soon. At the distributed level, low operating and maintenance costs will

Figure 1-4: Solar technology penetration based on location and market segments

7

1Concentrating Solar Rising

Concentrating Solar Power - 2008

likely be determinative. Unless CSP technologies can match those of PV,

the distributed market will be tough for CSP technology to penetrate.

And the PV industry’s scale and ability to serve more markets than CSP

will drive ongoing cost improvements for decades to come.

Centralized Generation Market up for GrabsFigure 1-4 shows the base case forecast for the range of technologies, what

markets they will serve, and what insolation conditions are optimal for

each. While each of the technologies have core markets that they best

serve, it is where the circles meet that is most interesting for evaluating

competitive markets for solar technologies. The success of each will be de-

termined by a number of things this report examines in detail including:

Irradiance location and type•

Cost improvements over time•

Availability of components•

Need for and value of dispatchability•

Diffi culty from and cost of transmission line upgrades•

Changes in policy - international, national, and local•

Emergence of low-cost grid electricity storage options•

While future market share of the various technologies cannot be known,

it is pretty clear that the collection of solar technologies described herein

will soon be cheap enough to penetrate deeply into the need for expen-

sive daytime power, and with storage, perhaps into base load and trans-

portation energy as well.

Today, a number of solar energy technologies have arguably become cost

effective. As a result, many should enjoy increasing market share and

further price declines in the coming years. At the same time convention-

al sources of energy will have increasing diffi culty in simply maintaining

prices and production volumes in the face of fuel stock pressure and grid

maintenance requirements. The combination will drive dominant solar

electricity economics for decades to come, and CSP is poised to scale up

quickly for the largest customers. Finally, the dawn of large scale con-

centrating solar power is here, and the forecast shows hardly a cloud in

the sky.

USER LICENSE AGREEMENTAny Research report (“Report”) and the information therein are the property of or licensed to Greentech Media Inc. (“Greentech Media”) and permission to use the same is granted to annual or single-report Us-ers (“Users”) under the terms of this User License Agreement (“Agreement”) which may be amended from time to time without notice. When requesting a Report, User acknowledges that it is bound by the terms and conditions of this Agreement and any amendments thereto. Greentech Media therefore recommends that you review this page for amendments to this Agreement prior to requesting any additional Reports.

OWNERSHIP RIGHTSAll Reports are owned by Greentech Media and protected by United States Copyright and international copyright/intellectual property laws under applicable treaties and/or conventions. User agrees not to export any Report into a country that does not have copyright/intellectual property laws that will protect Greentech Media’s rights therein.

GRANT OF LICENSE RIGHTSGreentech Media hereby grants User a personal, non-exclusive, non-refundable, non-transferable license to use the Report for research purposes only pursuant to the terms and conditions of this Agreement. Green-tech Media retains exclusive and sole ownership of each Report disseminated under this Agreement. User agrees not to permit any unauthorized use, reproduction, distribution, publication or electronic transmission of any Report or the information/forecasts therein without the express written permission of Greentech Me-dia. Users purchasing site licenses may make a Report available to other persons from their organization at the specifi c physical site covered by the agreement, but are prohibited from distributing the report to people outside the organization, or to other sites within the organization. Enterprise Level Users, however, may make a Report available for access on computer intranets or closed computer systems for internal use under their service agreements with Greentech Media.

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY AND LIABILITYGreentech Media has used its best efforts in collecting and preparing each Report.

GREENTECH MEDIA, ITS EMPLOYEES, AFFILIATES, AGENTS, AND LICENSORS DO NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, CURRENTNESS, NONINFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY, OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY REPORTS COVERED BY THIS AGREEMENT. GREENTECH MEDIA, ITS EMPLOYEES, AFFILIATES, AGENTS, OR LICENSORS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE TO User OR ANY THIRD PARTY FOR LOSSES OR INJURY CAUSED IN WHOLE OR PART BY OUR NEGLIGENCE OR CONTINGEN-CIES BEYOND GREENTECH MEDIA’S CONTROL IN COMPILING, PREPARING OR DISSEMINATING ANY REPORT OR FOR ANY DECISION MADE OR ACTION TAKEN BY User OR ANY THIRD PARTY IN RELI-ANCE ON SUCH INFORMATION OR FOR ANY CONSEQUENTIAL, SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR SIMILAR DAM-AGES, EVEN IF GREENTECH MEDIA WAS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SAME. User AGREES THAT THE LIABILITY OF GREENTECH MEDIA, ITS EMPLOYEES, AFFILIATES, AGENTS AND LICENSORS, IF ANY, ARISING OUT OF ANY KIND OF LEGAL CLAIM (WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHER-WISE) IN CONNECTION WITH ITS GOODS/SERVICES UNDER THIS AGREEMENT SHALL NOT EXCEED THE AMOUNT YOU PAID TO GREENTECH MEDIA FOR USE OF THE REPORT IN QUESTION.