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Technical Review of Stocks

Update –– 20 March 2016 CIO Wealth Management Research

Peter Lee, Chief Technical Analyst, [email protected], +1-212-713-8888, ext.01

This report provides technical analysis on stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. This list is not a template for the construction of your personal portfolio. You should discuss investment decisions with your Financial Advisor. For more information about this report, see Description and Methodology in the Appendix. We would like to thank Venkat Badri, an employee of Cognizant Group, for his assistance in preparing this research report. Cognizant staff provides research support services to UBS.

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This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosuresbegin on page 42.

Table of Contents Ticker Name Page Ticker Name Page AAPL APPLE 4 JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 21 ABBV ABBVIE INC 4 JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 22 ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES 5 KHC KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY 22 ACN ACCENTURE 5 KO COCA-COLA CO 23 ADBE ADOBE 6 LOW LOWE'S 23 AET AETNA INC 6 MCD MCDONALD'S CORP 24 AGN ALLERGAN 7 MDLZ MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC 24 AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC 7 MDT MEDTRONIC INC 25 AMGN AMGEN INC 8 MMM 3M CO 25 AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 8 MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 26 BA BOEING 9 MRK MERCK & CO 26 BAC BANK OF AMERICA 9 MSFT MICROSOFT INC 27 BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 10 NKE NIKE INC 27 BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - CLASS B 10 OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 28 CELG CELGENE CORP 11 PCLN PRICELINE 28 CL COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO 11 PEP PEPSICO INC 29 CMCSA COMCAST CORP 12 PFE PFIZER INC 29 CNC CENTENE 12 PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 30 CPB CAMPBELL SOUP CO 13 PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL 30 CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC 13 RHT RED HAT 31 CVS CVS CAREMARK CORP 14 SBUX STARBUCKS 31 CVX CHEVRON CORP 14 SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 32 DIS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 15 SO SOUTHERN CO 32 EMC EMC CORP/MA 15 T AT&T INC 33 EOG EOG RESOURCES INC. 16 TMO THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC 33 ESS ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST 16 TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC 34 FB FACEBOOK INC 17 UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE 34 FDX FEDEX 17 UTX UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 35 GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 18 V VISA INC-CLASS A 35 GILD GILEAD SCIENCES INC 18 VFC VF CORP 36 GOOGL ALPHABET INC 19 VMW VMWARE INC 36 HD HOME DEPOT INC 19 VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 37 HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC 20 WFC WELLS FARGO AND CO 37 IBM INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 20 WWAV WHITEWAVE FOODS 38 INTC INTEL CORP 21 XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 38

The last update on these stocks was published on either 29 February 2016 or 17 February 2016. Going forward, our previously published rating for these stocks should not be relied upon.


UBS CIO WM Research 21 March 2016 2

Changes since last report Additions

Name Ticker LOWE'S LOW THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC TMO VF CORP VFC

Deletions

Name Ticker APACHE APA AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP ASTRAZENECA PLC AZN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC BEN BP PLC BP CITIGROUP INC C CATERPILLAR INC CAT CONOCOPHILLIPS COP COSTCOWHOLESALE CORP COST CSX CORP CSX CENTURYLINK INC CTL DOMINION RESOURCES INC D DU PONT (EI) DE NOMOURS DD DEERE AND CO DE DIAGEO PLC DEO DOW CHEMICAL DOW DUKE ENERGY CORP DUK FORD MOTOR CO F GENERAL MILLS INC GIS GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC GSK HALLIBURTON HAL ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC ITW INVESCO IVZ KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP KMB L BRANDS INC LB ELI LILLY LLY LAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX LULULEMON ATHLETICA LULU MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL MHFI NEXTERA ENERGY INC NEE NESTLE SA/AG NSRGY NOVARTIS AG NVS ORACLE CORP ORCL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC RDSA SANDISK CORP SNDK ST JUDE MEDICAL INC STJ TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS TEVA TARGET CORP TGT TOTAL SA TOT TRAVELERS TRV U.S. BANCORP USB VODAFONE GROUP PLC VOD WALGREENS CO WBA WAL-MART STORES INC WMT

Technical Rating Changes

Name Ticker Old New

GILEAD SCIENCES INC. GILD Bullish Neutral

Note: With this issue, we have combined the two Technical Review of Stocks reports into one.



Apple Inc (AAPL)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 17 March 2016 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

97.5-100 92-95/86-87 82.5/70-75 105-109 115/120-124 134.5

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $105.80

Rationale: A Jul '15 negative outside month and a subsequent violation of 121-123 triggered a -32% decline to a low of 92 (Aug '15). The ability to find support at 92-95 or the extension of the 2014 triangle breakout and the 50% re-tracement from its 2013-2015 rally led to a technical rally towards the low-120s (Nov '15 high). Soon after, increased broader market volatility led to a well-defined downtrend from Nov '15 to Jan '16. Despite a recovery from low-90s, a convincing move above low-120s is needed to negate head/shoulder top pattern.

AbbVie Inc (ABBV)

Jan '13 Apr '13 Jul '13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Apr '15 Jul '15 Oct '15 Jan '163030

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53-54 49-51/45.45 41-42 60-61.5 64-65.5 70.76-71.60

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Healthcare


Rationale: The Aug '15 uptrend channel breakdown at 59.5 (Sep '15) coupled with a weekly death cross sell signal and negative outside weeks (7/24/15 and 8/21/15) confirm a top. After declining 36.5% from its Jul '15 high to a low of 45.45 (Oct '15) a deeper oversold condition triggered a technical rally to key resistance along the low-to-mid 60s (Nov '15/Jan '16 high) or to its 61.8% retracement from the Jul-Oct '15 decline. The low-60s is now major resistance. A wide trading range is now likely between mid-to-high 40s and the mid-60s.



Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

2012 2013 2014 2015 20162020

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36 32-33.75 29-31 41.5 44-45 46.5-47/51.74


Sector Health Care


Rationale: A negative outside week on 8/14/15, coupled with a large gap down on 8/24/15 and a weekly death cross sell signal led to 24.62% correction from its Jul '15 high (51.74) to its Oct '14 low (39). A deeply oversold condition has triggered a technical rally. A failure to sustain within the 2011 uptrend channel coupled with the Jan '16 gap down (38.5-41.49) and 1/29/16 negative outside week led to a major test of support at 35.5-36 or 61.8% retracement from 2009-2015 rally. We think a range bound trading environment between mid-30s and mid-40s/low-50s is most likely.

Accenture PLC (ACN)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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97-98 88-91/83-84 74-77 110-111 115-117 122/128-129


Sector Technology


Rationale: We remain Bullish on Accenture on an intermediate-to-longer term basis as long as it retains the bottom of its 5-year uptrend channel as well as the extension of its 2-year ascending triangle breakout along the low-90s. Alt-hough ACN failed to clear above the top of its channel at 110-111 late last year a convincing breakout renders upside targets to 115-117 and above this to 128-129, over time. On the other hand, the Dec '15 and Feb '16 negative outside month patterns does not rule out consolidation before a convincing breakout above 110-111, initial resistance.



Adobe (ADBE)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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80 +/- 2 71-72/68-69 65-66/56-58.5 90 93-93.25 96.42/100


Sector Technology


Rationale: The S&P Software and Services sector has been a relative outperformer in the market for the past 7 years and continues to perform well in relationship to S&P peers. However, the sharp Nov '15 to Feb '16 broad market cor-rection has also negatively impacted ADBE as it briefly slipped below its 2013 uptrend near 76-77. Nonetheless, a solid bounce back from key support level has triggered a rally back to 86-87 or the 10-wk/30-wk moving averages. A con-vincing surge above the moving averages can help to sustain the rally to 93-93.25 and then to 96.42-100.

Aetna Inc (AET)

2012 2013 2014 2015 20162020

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106.94/98-100 92.42-93.51 84-86.5 118-120 125.47 134.40


Sector Healthcare


Rationale: The healthcare sector including AET has also come under selling as AET has declined 30.42% from its rec-ord high of 134.40 (Jun '15) to an Aug '15 low of 93.51. Negative outside week patterns on 8/21/15, 9/25/15, 12/3/15 and on 1/29/16 as well as a negative outside month on Jan '16 continue to warn of further volatility. Interestingly, an equally solid rally from Feb '16 low not only recovered most of its losses from Nov '15 high, but also exhibited a posi-tive outside month pattern. More recently, a positive outside week on 3/11/16 keeps bulls optimistic on the stock.



Allergan (AGN)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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260-270 231-237.5 198-205 300-303 322-325/340 365-368


Sector Healthcare


Rationale: The 30.2% decline from Jul-Oct '15 has weakened it near-to-intermediate term trend. In the process, the pivotal 2013/2015 uptrend channel at 280-290 gave way under Sep-Oct '15 broad market correction. However, the ability to quickly surge back above its breakdown and a subsequent gap up on 10/29/15 as well as the Oct '15 positive outside month pattern suggest a consolidation. We expect a near-term trading range to develop between 260-270 and 312-323. More recently, the 3/11/16 positive outside week pattern keeps bulls optimistic on the stock.

Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)

2012 2013 2014 2015 201688

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18.8/17.3-18.1 15/14.25/13.5 12-12.5 20.85-21.68 23-23.5 25.5-26.4


Sector Technology


Rationale: Failure to clear above key resistance near the 38.2% retracement from 2000-2008 (26.4) has led to a 44.6% correction from the Dec '14 high. In the process, a number of key supports including the 2013 uptrend near 22 have been breached. The Mar '15 negative outside month and a large gap down in Apr '15 extended losses. Still, a 40% rally from 14.25 levels (Aug '15 low) is encountering resistance near the 50% retracement from the Dec '14-Aug '15 decline (19.98). A convincing move above low-20s coupled with the Feb '16 positive outside month keeps bulls optimistic.



Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

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127.67-130.09 114-115 105-108 160 +/- 2 /165 173-175 181.81


Sector HealthCare


Rationale: We maintain a cautiously optimistic technical view on AMGN as the stock still retains its primary uptrend. However, a broadening wedge warns of a maturing rally. The selling in Sep '15 may have found key support near 130.09 or just above its Oct '14 low (127.67), 38.2% retracement (130.20) from its 2011-2015 rally and the bottom of 2013 uptrend channel. A successful test here can trigger a technical rally to the low-170s. In the near-term, a negative outside week on 1/26/16 can lead to further consolidation. Key support is at 127-130 or near the Oct '14/Sep '15 lows.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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515-535/474 440-450 400-410 585-600 635-640 685-700


Sector C. Discretionary


Rationale: A 31.94% decline from the Dec '15 high or 696.44 levels to the Feb '16 low or 474 tested the conviction of the bulls amidst increased sector and broader market volatility. In due course, the stock appears to have found sup-port near the bottom of the nine month symmetrical tringle pattern near 474 (shown above). Despite a 20% rally from Feb '16 lows, a convincing move above low-600s sets the motion towards previous highs. A failure to do so would in-dicate a movement within 1 year head and shoulder top pattern and potential for further consolidation.



Boeing (BA)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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112-114 102-103.5 90.5-94/79-80 135-138 144.5-150 159


Sector Industrials


Rationale: After appreciating nearly 447% in the past 7 years the rally has slowed over the past year or so and hence our Neutral technical outlook. A complex head/shoulders top pattern over the past two years warns of a maturing up-trend. The outcome of this formation will help to determine the next trend. Although the ability of BA to find pivotal support near its 2009 uptrend at 101-102 prevented a deeper setback, it still needs to surge above 135-138 (30-wk ma) to allow for the resumption of the primary uptrend and a retest of 150/159. Initial support is at 112-114.

Bank of America Corp (BAC)

2012 2013 2014 2015 201644

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11-11.65 10-10.5 8-8.5 12.75-13 14-14.75 16-16.5


Sector Financials


Rationale: We maintain a Neutral technical stance as BAC has broken major support along the bottom of a well-defined 2-year trading range. Despite a positive outside month on Oct '15, the stock failed to follow through with a breakout above the top of its trading range at 18-18.5. A subsequent Nov '15 to Feb '16 market correction resulted in the violation of bottom of its channel (14.5-15). A 40.53% decline from Jul '15 high created a deeply oversold condi-tion that prompted a rally to the 38.2% retracement (13.85) of Jul '15 to Feb '16 declines. Initial support is 11-11.65.



Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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56.32-57.94 51.82 47.55 66-67 70.5-71.5/75.5 79-80


Sector HealthCare


Rationale: A 343% rally from the 2008 bottom (16) has led to an overbought condition. The 7/24/15 negative outside week and a subsequent Jul '15 negative outside month triggered a sharp setback of 26.5% back towards the bottom of its 2011/2013 uptrends along the low-to-mid 50s. A successful test of support has ignited another rally. Having said that, a negative outside week on 12/18/15 followed by the Jan '16 gap down led to an -18.24% decline from Dec '15 high (70.87). Having said that, a convincing move above mid-70s could invite fresh bullish interest in the stock.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. – Class B stock (BRK.B)

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130 +/- 1 122-123 116-119/106 145-146 151.63-152.94 160/165


Sector Financials


Rationale. A violation of the 2013 uptrend at 141-144 and a subsequent weekly death cross signal warn of a matur-ing trend. Although the longer-term trend is still favourable and relative strength against SPX is positive, a convincing violation of 122.72 would confirm a top and warn of a deeper setback towards 116-119 and below this to 108-110. Having said that, a 19.22% decline from Dec '14 highs has created an oversold condition and the recent Feb '16 posi-tive outside month prompted a rally to the 61.8% retracement (141.71) of 2014-2016 decline.



Celgene Corp. (CELG)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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93-94 83-84 78-80 108-111 115-117/123 127-129.5/141


Sector HealthCare


Rationale: We maintain a Neutral technical stance on CELG as the recent breakdown below the low-100s or the 2012 uptrend warns of a waning bull trend. A large head and shoulders top pattern has developed with key neckline support at 93-94 or the 2015/2016 lows. Also note that 38.2% retracement from 2009-2015 rally is at 94 providing pivotal support. A weekly death cross sell signal and a negative outside week (1/29/16) further hint of a top. Key initial re-sistance is at 108-111 or the 38.2% retracement from Jul-Aug '15/Feb '16 decline.

Colgate Palmolive Co (CL)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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65-66/60-62 54.5-55.5 49.5-51 71.56 74-75 77.5-78.5


Sector Cons. Staples


Rationale: This consumer staples stock has also succumbed to selling pressure during the Aug '15 as it briefly violated the bottom of its pivotal 2011and 2009 uptrend channels at 67-68 and 60-62, respectively. However, a positive out-side week on 1/22/16 (low-60s) reinforce a still bullish intermediate-to-longer term uptrend. Nonetheless, a potential head/shoulders top pattern has developed in the past 2-years. Breakout above initial resistance at 71.56 confirms the resumption of the primary uptrend and upside to mid-to-high 70s. 65-66 or the 10-/30- wk ma is initial supply.



Comcast Corp. Cl A (CMCSA)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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52.34-54.38 49.33-50.01 47.34/44-42 63.38-64.99 70-71 75-76


Sector Cons. Disc.


Rationale: We retain a cautiously optimistic technical outlook on CMCSA. However, on a near-term basis, the lack of a follow through to the late summer's breakout to 64.99 was short lived as this stock has struggled to retain its prior highs. Despite the relative outperformance of the stock (vs SPX), a trading range has developed between the low-50s and the low-to-mid 60s. Violation of 49-50 confirms a technical breakdown and suggests downside risks to the 47.34 and below this to the low-to-mid 40s. A breakout above 63-65 suggests the resumption of primary uptrend.

Centene (CNC)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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55-56/51.66 47.36/44-45 39-41 64-65/68.42 73.5-76.5 83


Sector Healthcare


Rationale: After declining nearly 43% from its Jul '15 high (83) this Healthcare name has maintained above crucial sup-port along the low-to-mid 40s or above the top of the 2011/2012 internal channels. The next key challenge is to trade convincingly above key initial resistance in the low-to-mid 60s or the 10-wk/30-wk ma and the 2015 downtrend. A breakout here can lead to the next rally. On the downside, two negative outside weeks (1/8/16 and 2/5/16) suggest a po-tentially near-term volatile trading range environment developing between the mid-to-high 40s and the low-to-mid 60s.



Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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59-60/55/50-52 47-48/44-45 41-42/38-39 65/69-70 75-76 80-81/85-86




Rationale: An ascending triangle breakout during 2013 (above the high-30s) and a subsequent breakout above two and half year accumulation pattern above high-40s in mid-2015 substantiate our Bullish technical outlook on this Food Beverage and Tobacco name. However, a moderately overbought condition has led to a near-term pull back to its prior breakout. Nonetheless, 11/20/15 positive outside week, gap up on 11/24/15 and a positive outside month pattern in Nov '15 and again in Jan '16 keep us optimistic. Initial support now lies at 59-60 or near the Mar '16 low.

Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)

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25.65 23.13-24.09 21.5-22.5/20.2 29-29.5 30.31 34.24-36.34


Sector Technology


Rationale: We maintain an optimistic stance on this important technology name as long as it retains the 2011-2012 up-trend along the low-20s (21.5-22.5). However, a negative outside week (3/6/15) and a negative outside month (Aug '15) have slowed the 7-year recovery. Having said that, a large positive outside week pattern on 2/12/16 not only helped the stock to clear above its 30-week ma and the Jan '16 gap down (26.66-27.14), but also reaffirm the resumption of the intermediate term uptrend. Initial supply is at 29-29.5 or the 2015 downtrend. Above this 30.31 is secondary supply level.



CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)

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94.93/90-91 86.5/80-82 75-77.5 105.5-106 113.7 119-120




Rationale: A breakout above the top of the 2012 channel at 89-90 and a gap up on 1/8/15 propelled CVS to record highs. After making a high of 113.65 during Aug '15, the trend suddenly reversed direction, falling 28.4% in a series of multiple gap downs in 15-days. However, the selling soon stabilized at 81.3 setting into motion the current recovery from Aug '15/Feb '16 lows. In addition, the Feb '16 positive outside month pattern keeps bulls optimistic. Sustainability of the stock above 98-100 can strengthen the recovery to initial resistance at 105.5-106 or the Oct '15 high.

Chevron Corp (CVX)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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85-87 80/75 69.58/66.83 100 +/- 2 109-112 120-121/135.1


Sector Energy


Rationale: Violation of the bottom of its 2011 uptrend channel at 116-117 followed by a negative outside week (5/1/15) and violation of the Dec '14/Jan-Mar '15 lows at 98-100 have triggered a 48.5% decline (from its 134.10 Jul '14 highs) to Aug '15 low of 69.58. An extremely oversold condition coupled with a successful test of major support at 70.55 (61.8% retracement from 2003-2014 rally) triggered a technical rally to 98.64 by Nov '15 or near the 38.2% retracement from Jul '14-Aug '15 decline and the Jul '15 downtrend. A convincing move above 100 +/- 2 could strengthen recovery process.



The Walt Disney Co (DIS)

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93-94 85-86.25 78.54/69.85 103.43-105 107-109 115/120-122.1


Sector Cons. Disc.


Rationale: We maintain a Neutral technical outlook on this Consumer Discretionary name as a gap down in Jan '16, a death cross signal and the violation of its 2011 uptrend near 98 warn of a medium term top. DIS has also violated its Aug '15 lows at 90-91 setting into motion a lower low as it fell to next key support at 86.21 or the 38.2% retracement from 2011-2015 rally. The ability to find support here triggered a technical rally to 97-98 or the 10-wk ma and its prior breakdown. The 30-wk ma and Jan '16 gap down at 103.5-105 remains key resistance.

EMC Corp (EMC)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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25/22.5-23.5 21.25-21.45 19.84-19.99 28-29 30.92-32 34-36


Sector Technology


Rationale: A pending deal and related news flow can still influence this stock over the near-to-medium term. We re-tain a Neutral technical outlook for this Technology Hardware name based primarily on a 4-year trading range between the low-20s and the low-30s. The -26.71% decline during 2015 may be setting into motion an even tighter trading band between 22.5-23.5 or the late-2015/2016 lows and 28-29 or the Sep '12/Mar '14/Aug '15/Oct '15 highs. This short-term trading range resembles a potential head/shoulders top pattern with pivotal neckline support at 22.5-23.5.



EOG Resources (EOG)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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67-68/61-63 56-57.15 53-54/43-44 76-77 88-89.5 91-93.5/96-98


Sector Energy


Rationale: Three weekly death cross sell signals (2014/15), violation of the 2012 uptrend (97-98), negative outside month (May '15), monthly death cross sell signal in Sep '15, and a large 2-year head-and-shoulders top breakdown (85-87) confirm a major top and suggest downside to the low-50s. Nonetheless, the 1/22/16 positive outside week and a successful test of the bottom of downtrend channel (57-58) trigger a rally to the low-to-mid 70s (23.6% retracement from 2014-16 decline and 30-wk ma) and then to high-80s. The Mar '16 positive outside month keeps bulls optimistic.

Essex Property Trust (ESS)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016100100

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210/198 191.2/170-180 140-150 235-236 243-247.5 280-285


Sector Financials


Rationale: A multi-year breakout during 2012 at 148.5 (not shown) confirms a major breakout and renders upside targets to 247.5. ESS basically achieved its technical target when it rallied to 243.17 (Mar '15) and again to 244.71 (Jan '16). Based on the 397.48% rally since 2009 bottom (49.19) a high level consolidation can be expected between 191-195 and 243-245. This is needed to alleviate an overbought condition. Having said that, an impressive bounce back from Feb '16 lows and superior relative performance of the stock keeps bulls optimistic. 243-247.5 is key supply.



Facebook Inc. (FB)

Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13 Jul '13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Apr '15 Jul '15 Oct '15 Jan '16

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104.40 94-96 89-90/80-82 117.59 124-128 137/145


Sector Technology


Rationale: The primary trend (starting from May '12) remains bullish and a breakout above 45 during Sep '14 led to an even steeper uptrend channel between low-90s and high-100s. The 27.5% correction from its Jul '15 high (99.3) to its Aug '15 low (72) has set the stage for the next rally. In due course, a breakout above the top of its 2013 uptrend channel led to a new all-time high of 117.59 (Feb '16). We think a convincing move above 117.59 or the Feb '16 high could invite fresh bullish interest. The Jan '16 positive outside month pattern keeps bulls optimistic on the breakout.

FEDEX Corp. (FDX)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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144.75-154.08 134-136 119.71-122.78 164.5 170-173 185.19


Sector Industrials


Rationale: We remain favourable on the longer-term technical outlook on this freight and logistics company as long as it retains its multi-year breakout above 121.2 (late-2013). However, after a 444% rally from the 2009 lows, increased volatility hinted of a maturing trend. In addition, a sharp 35.36% decline from Jun '15 high (185.19) to Jan '16 low (119.71) has achieved its downside target and the stock appears to be consolidating between 110-120 and 140-150. A convincing move above mid-160s could lead to a retest of its all-time highs at 185.19 (Jun '15 high).



General Electric Co (GE)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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28.4-29/27.11 25.49-26.22 23.5-24 31.5/32.5-33.5 37.75-38.5 39.5/42.08


Sector Industrials


Rationale: The 2000 downtrend breakout above 26.5 in Nov ‘13 (not shown), the gap up breakout in 4/10/15 (25.83-27), and the surge above the 61.8% retracement (28.19) from the 2007-2009 decline, are all technically significant as they confirm a longer-term recovery. Although the two broad market corrections in the past year have also impacted GE, resulting in a 26.4% decline to a low of 19.37, we are encouraged by the recent recovery back to its 2015 highs. However, the Jan '16 negative outside month pattern warns of a trading range between 26-27 and 31.5-33.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120


Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 25 January 2016 Support levels Resistance levels


86-87 81.89/77-78.5 63.50 99-101/105 109-111 113-117/123.4


Sector HealthCare


Rationale: We recommend downgrading to a Neutral outlook on this health care name from an intermediate-term perspective. GILD rallied 94.28% from its Apr '14 low (63.5) recording a record high of 123.37 on Jun '15. An over-bought condition has led a consolidation between the mid-80s and 117-123. Similar to many Biotechnology names a large broadening top as well as a head/shoulders top have developed. Failure to maintain key support at low-to-mid 80s confirms a neckline breakdown. A technical oversold rally to 99-101 may encounter another round of selling.



Alphabet Inc (GOOGL)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016200200

300300

400400

500500

600600

700700

800800




690-710 670/654 617.8/593.09 800-810.35 840-850 875/905-910


Sector Technology


Rationale: The 2-year downtrend channel breakout in Jul '15 is technically significant as this signals the re-emergence of a leadership technology name. An overbought condition soon developed that led to a consolidation (see red circle) between high-500s and low-700s from mid-Jul to mid-Oct '15. Soon after, a gap up on 10/23/15 extended the rally and a surge above 752.5 (Oct '15 high) led to a new all-time high of 810.35 (Feb '16). In the near-term, the stock paints a mixed picture, with the Feb '16 negative outside month followed by 3/11/16 positive outside week pattern.

Home Depot (HD)

2012 2013 2014 2015 20162020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140




121-123/109.6 104-107 96/90 135-136 143-144 149-150/156




Rationale: We retain a technical Bullish outlook on this Home Improvement retailer but recognize the rally over the past 2-years has achieved our technical target of 123 (based on the 2013 breakout above 70). We think higher prices are still possible back to its prior 2015 highs at 135-136. Above this, the stock enters uncharted territory. Although a decline over three months starting from Dec '15 till Feb '16 and 2/5/16 negative outside week tested the conviction of the bulls, a solid rally from Feb '16 low keeps bulls optimistic. Initial supply is 121-123 or the 10-/30- wk ma.



Honeywell International Inc. (HON)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110




100-103 91.5-93.71 87-89/82-83 111.86 116-118.5 129-131


Sector Industrials


Rationale: We maintain a Bullish technical outlook on this Industrials name. A 13-year breakout at 63/69 during the late-2012/early-2013 (not shown) renders targets to 118.5. An ascending triangle breakout above 107-108 renders upside to 129-131, longer-term. In addition, continued relative outperformance (vs SPX) keeps us optimistic. Initial support is at 100-103 or near the 10-/30- wk ma. Below this, 91.5-93.71 or the 23.6% retracement from 2011-2015 rally and the Jan '16 lows is secondary support. Initial resistance is at 111.86 or the Feb '16 highs.

International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

120120

140140

160160

180180

200200

220220




126.57-130 116-117/104 97-99.5 153-154 174-177 195-200


Sector Technology


Rationale: A 45.85% decline from the March 2013 highs or 215.90 levels to as low as 116.90 or the Feb '16 low ap-pears to have created deeply oversold levels. A strong recovery from Feb '16 lows coupled with a large gap up on 2/18/16 hints of solid base in the making. Although it is too early to call it a reversal, we think risk-reward looks attrac-tive. Key initial support now lies at 126.57-130 or the 2/18/16 gap up range. Below this, secondary support lies at 116-117 or near the Jan/Feb '16 lows. To the upside, initial supply lies at 153-154 or near the Oct '15 highs.



Intel Corp (INTC)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 17 March 2016

Support levels Resistance levels


28 +/- 0.50 26-26.40 24.87 34-34.50 35.59 37.5-38.0


Sector Technology


Rationale: We were encouraged by the 12-year inverse head-and-shoulders breakout above 30 (not shown) in Jun '14. However, a 28.43% decline from the May '15 high of 34.75 warned of a false breakout. The stock’s ability to find support near the mid-20s prevented a deeper setback, prompting another sharp rally of 41% from its Aug '15 lows (24.87). Despite the 11/20/15 positive outside week, a failure to break above 2014 high (37.9), the Jan '16 gap down and 2/5/16 negative outside week hints of consolidation. A trading range is now likely between 28 +/- .5 and 34-35.5.

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)




100/94-95 90-91/85.5-86 80-82/73-75 109.49 116-120 126-127


Sector Healthcare


Rationale: We keep a Bullish technical outlook on JNJ. A large multi-year technical base breakout above the low-to-mid 70s achieved one of our medium term technical targets of the low-110s during Nov ’14 (109.5). An overbought condition coupled with a weekly death cross sell signal promptly led to a correction. After declining 25.3% to 81.79 (Aug '15) JNJ quickly generated a strong recovery that is now challenging its Nov '14 highs or its prior all-time highs (109.5). A breakout here confirms the start of the next major rally. Initial support is 100-102 or the 10-/30- week ma.



JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)




52.50-54.50 48-50.07 44-44.50 60-61/64-66 68-70 83-85/90-92


Sector Financials


Rationale: We keep a Neutral technical view on this Financial name. A multi-year breakout above 53.29 in mid-2013 transitioned the stock into a new 2+ year uptrend channel. A rally to the top of the channel near the low-70s led to an overbought condition which in turn led to recent 29.1% sell-off from the Jul '15 high (70.61) as it declined to 50.07 (Aug '15). Despite the Oct '15 positive outside month, a weekly death cross signal coupled with a gap down in Jan '16 and relative weakness (vs SPX) suggest a trading range between low-50s and mid-60s. 64-66 is key supply level.

Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)




73.33-75.55 68-70/65 60-61.42 80-81.20 85.14 91.32




Rationale: We keep our Bullish technical outlook on KHC. A 35% gap up on 3/25/15 after Heinz and Kraft Foods an-nounced a merger to form the Kraft Heinz Co. set the tone for the Bulls, as evidenced by a bullish flag pattern. Howev-er, failing to follow through with this bullish pattern, a subsequent large gap down (-17.27%) on 7/6/15 warned of a correction. However, a gradual recovery from Aug '15 lows, 1/22/16 positive outside week, the subsequent positive outside month and a large gap up (73.33-76.65) on 2/26/16 hints of a move above low-80s.



Coca Cola Co (KO)




40.75-42.92 38-39/35-36 31.50-32/30 50-51 54-55 58-60/68-70


Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: We maintain a Bullish technical view on this consumer staples name. A move above 45 confirms a breakout of longer-term accumulation pattern and also a 3-plus year trading range between mid-to-high 30s and the mid-40s. In addition, a golden cross technical buy signal; continued relative outperformance (vs SPX) and a recent positive outside week (2/12/16) also bode well for higher highs. As the stock enters uncharted territory, we urge investors to use risk management techniques to protect gains. Initial support lies at 40.75-42.92 or the Jan/Mar '16 lows.

Lowe's (LOW)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of xx March 2016



69-71 64.85/62.62 53.25/50 78.13 84-86.50 93.5-95/104




Rationale: We initiate Lowe's with a technical Bullish rating. The primary trend starting from 1996 lows connecting 2008/2011 lows remains intact. A 501% rally from 2009 lows seems to have created an extremely overbought condi-tion that led to consolidation between low-60s and high-70s over the past year. Having said that, we prefer to stay with the bulls as the stock continues to trade within the rising channel despite the near-term broader market volatility. In addition, continued relative outperformance (vs SPX) over the past 4+ years keeps bulls optimistic on the stock.



McDonald’s Corp (MCD)




117 +/- 2 104.25-108.38 100-102/95.78 125-126 132-133 140/150




Rationale: We retain a technical Bullish rating on this Restaurant name. A convincing surge above 105-107 confirms a (gap up) breakout of the top of a well-established 5-year technical base. This major breakout is technically significant as this renders next upside target to 132-133 (intermediate), and 140 (longer-term). Having said that, a negative outside week on 2/5/16 and the subsequent Feb '16 negative outside month hints of consolidation. More recently, a positive out-side week pattern on 3/4/16 keeps bulls optimistic on a breakout above the initial supply at 125-126 (Feb '16 high).

Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)



35.88 33.97 31.83/30 44.45-45.45 47.42-48.58 53-55/59




Rationale: We remain cautiously optimistic on MDLZ. A key breakout of an 11-year technical base in Mar ‘13 above 28.76 supports our Bullish outlook. The stock has witnessed a steady rise over the past few years before finally break-ing out, and witnessed a high level consolidation between Jul '14 and May '15. The mid-May '15 breakout above 39.25-39.5 reinforced the primary uptrend. While the Aug '15 negative outside month and the Jan '16 gap downs may signal another consolidation phase, a solid recovery from 2011 uptrend hints of accumulation near key support levels.



Medtronic Inc. (MDT)




70 +/- 2 /63.98 60-62 55-56/53.33 79-80 85-87/91 95/100


Sector HealthCare


Rationale: This Healthcare name confirmed a major breakout above its 2000/2006 highs (60-62) in Jan/Apr ‘14. In addition, positive outside months on Aug '14, Oct '14, and May/Jul '15 and the stock’s relative outperformance versus SPX favor higher prices over the intermediate-to-longer term. That said the negative outside month pattern during Aug '15 has led to a wide trading range between the mid-to-high 50s and the mid-to-high 70s. The stock paints a mixed picture in the near-term with Feb '16 positive outside month followed by 3/4/16 and 3/18/16 negative outside weeks.

3M Co (MMM)




151-154 146/140 +/- 1 131-134 170.50 175/179 185


Sector Industrials


Rationale: An inverse head and shoulder pattern breakout dating back to 2004 (not shown) ignited a strong rally that achieved a new all-time high at 170.5 (Mar '15). Soon after, a weekly death cross sell signal (May '15) led to a 21.4% decline to its Aug '15 low of 134. A gap up (10/5/15) and a positive outside week (10/23/15) led to a rally towards key resistance at 160. However, failure to breakout coupled with a potential head/shoulders top led to a retest of neckline support (134.64) before witnessing a bounce back. A move above 170.5 could invite fresh bullish interest in the stock.



Altria Group Inc. (MO)




60 56/52-52.5 47.31-47.41 65-67 70-72 78-80/85


Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: MO appears to be negating its 2009 broadening wedge pattern (shown above). More recently, a breakout above the top of its 1-year trading range at 56-56.5 as well as a weekly golden cross buy signal in the mid-Aug '15 and the negation of the Mar/Aug '15 negative outside months as well as the Jan '16 positive outside month hint of higher prices. The recent breakout renders upside targets to the mid-60s (near-term), low-70s (medium term) and then to the low-80s (long-term). Initial support is 60 or 10-wk ma. Key support is 56 or the Dec '15/Jan '16 lows and 30-wk ma.

Merck & Co (MRK)




45.69 40-41 36-37 55 +/- 1 60-61.7 63-64/71-72


Sector Healthcare


Rationale: The breakout of the 2000/2007 downtrend (not shown) above low-40s signals a longer-term recovery. However, the recent 2011 uptrend channel breakdown (mid-50s) weakens the medium-term technical outlook. Nega-tive outside months (Jun/Aug '15) and rolling of key moving averages led to a sell-off. The 10/16/15 positive outside week pattern helped to stabilize the selling but a negative outside week pattern (12/4/15) and failure to break above mid-50s suggest a retest of key support at 45.69 or the Aug '15 low, 2009 uptrend. 55 +/- 1 is initial supply.



Microsoft Inc. (MSFT)




48.19-50.58 45-46 39.72 56.85/59.97 65-66 70-71/77


Sector Technology


Rationale: A breakout of a large 13+ year head-and-shoulders bottom pattern above key neckline resistance at 37-38 (in 2013) confirms a Bullish technical outlook. The 21-point technical base breakout renders upside targets to as high as 59-60, longer-term. Despite a large gap up in Apr '15 and a subsequent positive outside month, the stock consoli-dated between the low-40s and the low-50s. A positive outside week on 10/2/15, a subsequent large gap up breakout on 10/23/15 reaffirm a bullish outlook. More recently, 3/11/16 positive outside week keeps bulls optimistic.

Nike Inc. Cl B (NKE)




57.95/53.64 50 45.35-47.25 63.50-64 68.20-70 75/80




Rationale: We keep a technical Bullish view based on: 1) the primary trend starting from 2000 lows remains up; 2) a successful breakout above its 2009 uptrend channel and 3) continued relative outperformance against SPX. While an overbought condition led to a 19.7% decline in Aug '15, a solid gap up on 9/25/15 and again on 11/20/15 offset the concerns and led to the extension of its uptrend. However, 12/25/15 and 2/5/16 negative outside weeks and the Feb '16 negative outside month hint of consolidation between mid-50s and high-60s. Initial support is 57.95 (Mar '16 low).



Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)




56-58.24 49-51 45-46/39-40 72-75 77-80 82.5-85

Technical rating Bearish

Sector Energy


Rationale: A breakdown from two symmetrical triangles below 90 in Sep/Oct '14 and again below the low-80s during the Nov/Dec '14 reaffirms our defensive Bearish technical outlook. A falling wedge pattern has developed over the past 2 years. This pattern hints of a potential medium-term bottom near the bottom of its wedge along 56-58.24. The abil-ity to find support here has triggered a technical oversold rally which is now approaching its first major test of key re-sistance at 72-75 coinciding with the Feb '16 high, the top of wedge and 38.2% retracement from 2014-2016 decline.

Priceline (PCLN)




1200-1250 1100-1150 954-991 1379-1387 1430 1476.52-1500


Sector Consumer Disc.


Rationale: The technical breakout in Oct/Nov '15 at 1476.52 may have been a false breakout/bull trap as a large gap down (1387-1430) on 11/9/15 has led to a 35% decline down to 954.02 (Feb '16). Likewise, a recent breakdown be-low 990.69 (Jan '15 low) may have been a false breakdown/bear trap as an island reversal pattern developed on 2/9/16 coupled with a large gap up on 2/17/16 (1116-1220) has ignited another strong rally. We suspect PCLN will become increasingly volatile this year as it reverts back to its prevailing 2-year trading range between 954-991 and 1379-1430.



Pepsico Inc. (PEP)




92-93 85-87.5/78-80 75-76 101-103.5 106-107 110-112/116


Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: A surge above 79.79 during Apr '13 confirms a multi-year breakout and renders upside targets to as highs as 135-136, longer-term. On a medium term basis, the 34.32% rally from Feb '14 lows resulted in a record high of 103.44 (Oct '15) prompting an overbought condition and the current consolidation between low-90s and low-100s. Despite the near-term consolidation the favourable risk/reward profile and improving relative strength (vs SPX) suggest new all-time highs. Key supports are 92-93 (Jan '16 lows) and then 85-87.5 (2014 breakout and 2009 uptrend).

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)




27.12-28.25 26-26.5 23.5-24.25/21 32-33 36-36.5 39-40


Sector Healthcare


Rationale: A 10-year downtrend breakout above 19 +/- 1 during 2011 (not shown) ignited a major recovery. However, the 2009 to present rally stalled near its 61.8% retracement (mid-30s) from the 1999-2009 decline. Although the Jul '15 positive outside month pattern is constructive, a 22.5% decline from its Jul '15 high has created a potential head/shoulders top pattern. Key neckline support is visible at 27.12-28.25. A decisive breakdown confirms a top and warns of a decline towards the low-to-mid 20s. Key resistance now lies near the potential left/right shoulder (32-33).



Procter & Gamble Co (PG)




78-80 74-76 70-72/65-67 85-87 93-94 100




Rationale: We have recently upgraded the technical view to Bullish due to recent favourable developments this year. The failure to follow through with a breakout above the top of major uptrend channel (not shown) in the low-90s (Dec '14) led to of a sharp downturn (-30.75%) falling to a low of 65.02 during Aug '15. However, the stock found key support near the bottom of the 2011/2012 uptrend channel and the 61.8% retracement from its 2009-2015 rally near 63-65. A positive outside month (Jan '16), positive outside week (3/4/16) and the golden cross buy reaffirms a recovery.

Philip Morris International (PM)




90.5-93 85-87/80-81 75-76 99-100 107-108 115-116


Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: This Consumer Staples has emerged from its 3-year consolidation as evident by the Oct '15 breakout of its 2013 downtrend (86). A subsequent successful test of its breakout and 30-wk ma during Jan '16 correction to the mid-80s has led to new all-time high (99.33) during Mar '16. Although higher prices are likely on an intermediate-to-longer term basis, an overbought condition is developing into the recent rally. We would not be surprise to see a near-term high level consolidation develop on repeated failures to surpass 100. Key supports move up to 91-93 and then 85-87.



Red Hat (RHT)




65-67 58.5-60 52.5-55 75-77.5 81.5-84.5 95-97/101


Sector Technology


Rationale: We remain cautiously optimistic on this software and services name on an intermediate-to-longer term technical perspective. The primary uptrend remains intact as long as RHT retains its key support along 58.5-60 corre-sponding to the extension of its 2015 triangle breakout and the Feb '16 lows. However, the sharp decline of nearly 29.5% over the past 6-weeks as sell as a weekly death cross sell signal during Feb '16 and repeated failures to clear above the mid-70s warn of a medium term consolidation between the low-to-mid-60s and the mid-to-high 70s.

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)




56-57 52-54 45-47 61-61.79 63.5-64 67-68/70-71




Rationale: We retain a cautiously Bullish technical outlook on SBUX due to its favorable primary uptrend dating back to 2008/09 lows. Nonetheless, the negative outside week during 2/5/16 as well as the 17.77% correction from its Oct '15 highs (64) hint of a slowing or maturing trend. The ability of SBUX to maintain above key support near the low-to- mid-50s coupled with a continued bullish relative strength trend (vs SPX) will likely contain a deeper correction. To generate new all-time highs (64) it has to clear above key resistance at 61-61.79 (Feb '16 high Oct '15 downtrend).



Schlumberger Ltd (SLB)




66-68 59-61 54-55 74-76 81-83/87-89 93-95


Sector Energy


Rationale: WTI Crude Oil has fallen 75.82% from its 2014 highs and SLB has declined 50% during similar timeframe. A deeply oversold condition coupled with the ability to find key support near the bottom of its falling wedge at 59.6 (Jan '16) has triggered a sharp oversold rally that is now approaching key resistance at 74-76 (top of wedge, top of Jul '14 wedge, 30-wk ma, 30-mo ma and the Jan '15 lows). Trading above this confirms a breakout and renders next up-side targets to 81-83 (38.2% retracement from 2014-2016 decline, Nov '15 highs and prior breakdown).

Southern Co. (SO)




48-48.5 46-46.5/43-44 41.40-41.81 50.24/53.16 58-59 64-65


Sector Utilities


Rationale: The recent broad market weakness has helped many defensive stocks including such as Electric Utilities outperform SPX. SO has been progressing higher over the past year as evident by a breakout above key resistance at 48.74 and recently above 50.24. This action coupled with a surge above its Jan '15 all-time high of 53.16 would ne-gate a potential head/shoulders top pattern and would reaffirm a bullish higher high pattern with next upside to 58-59. On the downside, the 10-wk/30-wk moving averages at 48.5 and 46 will likely provide key supports on pullbacks.



AT&T Inc. (T)


Support Levels Resistance levels


36-36.5 34.5-35 31-32 39 40-40.5/42-43 47.5-49


Sector Comm. Services


Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)



128-132 117-120 107-112 141.62-143.65 147-149/160 171-173


Sector Healthcare


Rationale: This leadership Healthcare – Life Sciences Tools and Services name continues to outperform many of its peers and SPX Index as evident by the 439% rally from its 2008 bottom (26.65). The recent rally over the past few months is now encountering near-term resistance at 141.62-143.65. A breakout here can trigger the next rally towards the upper 140s (near-term) and possibly to 160/171-173 (medium-term). Given the strong rally initial trading support moves up to 128-132 (10-wk/30-wk ma and Nov '14 breakout) and secondary support to 117-120 (2015/2016 lows).

Rationale: A 3-year downtrend channel breakout above 36 signals the start of a sustainable intermediate term rally. In addition, the close proximity to its 10-wk ma (36.7) and the 30-wk ma (34.5) offers key near-to-medium term support on pullbacks. This recent breakout above the mid-30s renders an upside target to 39 and then above this to the low-40s over an intermediate term time horizon. A moderately overbought condition may develop into this rally thereby setting into motion another consolidation towards the mid-to-high providing another attractive risk/reward situation.



Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)




52-53 46-47/43.5-45 40-41 59-60 65-67 70-72/79-79.5


Sector Technology


Rationale: We retain a Bullish technical rating on TXN. The 2013 surge above 39.63 or its 2007 highs and the neckline resistance of a large 2002 head/shoulders bottom pattern confirmed a major breakout rendering upside to mid-60s and possibly to low-70s, over time. However, an overbought condition near 60 in 2015 coupled with a weekly death cross sell signal later in the year triggered a 27.5% decline. Nonetheless, strong relative strength (vs SPX) and ability to find support key support near the mid-40s now suggests a retest of the Mar '15 highs (59.99). Initial support is 52-53.

United Parcel Service (UPS)




99-100/94-96 87.3/84-85 79-81/76-77 105-107 114.4 114.4


Sector Industrials


Rationale: Although this Air Freight name has recovered from its strong selling in recent weeks a large 2-year head/shoulders top pattern, a monthly death cross sell signal and violation of its 2009 uptrend channel in the mid-to-high 90s still warn of an intermediate term top. This breakdown renders a downside target to 84-85 or the 38.2% re-tracement from 2009-2015 rally and the 2006 highs. Below this can trigger a deeper setback to 79-81 and then to 76-77 or the 50% retracement and 2012 breakout. Key initial resistance remains at the left/right shoulders at 105-107.



United Technologies Corp (UTX)




91-93 81-84 74-75/70-71 100-101 104.95-109.51 120.33-124.45


Sector Industrials


Rationale: We retain a Neutral technical stance on this Aerospace and Defence name as the failure to clear above the top of its 1999/2008/2014 uptrend channel (not shown) last year at 120-125 warns of a correction. A gap down on 7/21/15 and a weekly death cross sell signal further confirm a Neutral trend. Nonetheless, the long-term trend still re-mains positive as long as it maintain above the low-to-mid 80s (81-84). A positive outside week on 2/5/16 and a con-vincing move above key initial resistance at 100-101 (Oct/Nov '15 highs and the 2015 downtrend) confirm a recovery.

Visa Inc Cl A (V)




65-67/60-62 54-56 48-49/42-42.5 74-76/77.5 80-81 90-91


Sector Technology


Rationale: The longer-term primary trend starting from 2008-09 lows continues to trend higher and the relative strength trend in relationship to SPX remains positive. However, this trend may be maturing as evident by the failure to clear above key resistance near the low-80s. In addition, 12/11/15 negative outside week, Jan '16 gap down and a recent weekly death cross sell signal hint of a consolidation to initial support at 65-67 (Apr/Jun/Sep '15 lows). A breakdown here sug-gests downside risks towards its 2011 uptrend near the low-60s. The mid-to-high 70s provides key initial resistance.



VF Corp (VFC)

Source: FactSet, UBS, and Thomson Reuters as of 17 March 2016 Support levels Resistance levels


60-61 55 51.75-52.25 67-68 73-74 77-78




Rationale: The broad selloff in many of the Retail names has also led to a sharp -32.55% decline in VFC over the past year. Although selling subsided near 51.75-52.25 or near its Oct '13 gap up and the pivotal 38.2% retracement from the 2008-2015 rally we are concerned that technical damages incurred may lead to either a consolidation phase or yet another sell-off. A convincing surge above key initial resistance at 67-68 would help to confirm a recovery to the low-to-mid-70s or to the recent 2015 all-time highs. On the downside, key initial is evident at 60-61 and low-to-mid 50s.

VMware Inc (VMW)




43.25-44 41-42 35-36 53-55 59-61/65-67 74.22-77.20


Sector Technology


Rationale: We maintain a technical Bearish stance on VMW based primarily on a fan formation breakdown and a complex head-and-shoulders top pattern. Also, negative outside week patterns on 8/7/15, 8/21/15 and 10/9/15, sub-sequent negative outside month patterns during Aug/Oct '15, multiple gap downs in Oct '15 (10/12/15, 10/21/15 and 1/27/16), and a breakdown below the Jun/Jul '13 pivotal lows along the mid-60s imply very strong selling pressure. Nonetheless, the ability to find support in the low-40s can trigger an oversold technical rally to the mid-to-high 50s.



Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)




50-51/47-48 44-45/41-42 36.8-38.06 54-55 60-61 64-65


Sector Comm. Services


Rationale: A multi-year breakout above 2007 highs (43.01) in late-2012 suggests an upside target to 64-65, longer-term. However, a wide trading range remains intact between the mid 40s and the mid 50s. The Oct '15 positive out-side month, the 11/20/15, 12/4/15, 12/18/15 and 1/22/16 positive outside weeks and the recent 2014 downtrend breakout above 48 hint of a retest of the top of its trading range in the mid-50s. On the other hand, an overbought condition coupled with failure to breakout in the mid-50s can lead to a pullback to 50-51 and below this to 47-48.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)




44.5-45 40-41/37-38 31.5-33 52-54 55.5-56.5 58-59


Sector Financials


Rationale: A breakout above 44.69 (Sep '08 highs) ignited a rally as evident by a 4-year uptrend channel between the mid-50s and the mid-60s. However, the Aug-Sep '15 correction led to a violation of the bottom of its 2012 uptrend channel. A subsequent technical oversold late last year also failed to surpass above the extension of 2012 uptrend (mid-50s). The Jan '16 gap down and a potential head/shoulders top pattern still warn of further volatility over the near-to-medium term. Key support remains at 44.5-45 or recent Feb '16 lows and key resistance is near 52-54.



WhiteWave Foods (WWAV)




36-38 33-35 29-31.40 41-42 44-45 47-48/52.53




Rationale: This Consumer Staples has been recovering from its sharp 40% 2015-2016 bear decline after declining to 31.40 during Feb '16. An oversold rally has now led to a retest of crucial medium term resistance near the 30-wk ma and its 50% retracement from 2015-2016 decline in the low-40s (41-42). The ability to breakout here can extend the current rally towards the 61.8% retracement from the 2015-2016 decline (44.5) and the extension of the 2013 (44). On the downside, the 10-wk ma and the recent 2015 downtrend breakout along 36-38 provides key initial support.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)




78-80/71.5-74 66.5-67.5 60-62 85-87 90-93.5 97.20-100.43


Sector Energy


Rationale: We retain a technical Neutral stance on XOM as this is a relative strength leader within the battered Energy sector. Violation of 2002 uptrend (low-70s) as well as rising wedge breakdown (mid-90s) and a head and shoulders top breakdown (below 85) still warn of longer-term weakness. However, strong selling may have subsided on the recent successful test of key support at 66.55 during Aug '15 corresponding to the Aug '11 lows and the 76.4% retracement from 2010-2014 rally. This development hint of a technical base between the low-to-mid 70s and the mid-to-high 80s.



Appendix

Description and Methodology This report provides technical analysis on a dynamic list of stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. Please note that technical views are highly variable and will change with market conditions. Accordingly, these rat-ings are only valid as of the publication date. Because CIO WMR equity sector analysts and WMR technical analysts employ different analytical methodologies, technical recommendations are, at times, contradictory to fundamental recommendations for the same security. For the latest company ratings by WMR sector analysts, please refer to the most recent equity sector research reports, located in the Equity Section on the Online Services Research website. For more background on the content of this report, please see Technical Analysis Research Primer, 18 February 2010.

Appendix

Term / Abbreviation Description / Definition

% +or- Moving Avg (DMA)

The percentage above or below the moving average (see Moving Average) is used to help measure an overbought or oversold condition and is a component of risk management. It is calculated by taking the difference between the group price and its 30-week moving average (see below), and then dividing by the 30-week moving average times 100.

30-Week Moving Average Also known as the 30-week line or 150-day line), this is one of the most popular and respected moving average indicators (see Moving Average) in technical circles. It is calculated by totaling the latest 30 weekly (usually Friday closing) prices and dividing by 30 to arrive at the average. Each week, the most recent week’s figure is added to the total, and the price level from 30 weeks ago is subtracted – hence the term “moving.” Please note that a breakout above or breakdown below this line does not, in and of itself, constitute a buy or sell signal.

Adjusted Relative Strength (ARS) Number gives a 50% weighting to the 1-month relative strength, 30% to the 3-month, and 20% to the 6-month numbers to arrive at a single weighted number.

Base A chart pattern marking a period of accumulation following a downtrend. The larger the base, the greater the upside potential following its completion. A base can take many forms.

Beta A measure of volatility of a security as it relates to the market as a whole. Beta is often calculated using regression analysis. A beta is basically the tendency of a security’s returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 implies that the security’s price will be more volatile than the market.

Blow off stage to a major rally This is often the last stage of a speculative bubble to a major rally. The blow off phase tends to be steep, but short-lived that often affords little opportunity for investors/traders to exit their positions. As price of a security or an asset advanced to an unsustainable level via a parabolic uptrend this give rise to the bursting of the speculative bubble resulting a quick and dramatic decline as inves-tors/traders try to exit the market/security at the same time.

Breakdown A technical term indicating a downside resolution of a chart pattern. Its significance is determined by the same factors governing a breakout.

Breakout A technical term indicating an upside resolution of a chart pattern. Breakouts can take many forms, and their degree of importance is determined by the significance of the chart pattern which preced-ed it.



Appendix

Broadening Top Formation The Broadening top is a rare technical formation that resembles an inverted triangle pattern. It is formed by price swings that are increasingly widening and expanding volume. The most common of these broadening top patterns are the three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The combination of wide price swings and increasing volume often convey an increasingly volatile and emotional market that's basically out of control. This pattern is often associated with market tops rather than market bottoms. The confirmation of the Broadening top occurs when the price violates the second of these two troughs.

Channel

A chart pattern comprised of two parallel trend lines, which form a trading band. Channels take the form of uptrend, downtrend and horizontal.

Death Cross The opposite of a golden cross, this is a crossover on the chart resulting from a security’s shorter-term moving average falling below its longer-term moving average. Technicians often see this as a bearish technical sign indicating the market has turned negative on the security.

Downtrend Line

A trend line connecting successively lower peaks for a stock (or market). Its technical significance is determined by the same factors governing an uptrend line.

Fan reversal pattern The fan formation is a technical pattern that is based on the use of multiple trend lines to denote a major trend reversal. The fan pattern gets its name as it basically resembles a “fan”. It should have a minimum of three trend lines (uptrends or downtrends). The break out/break down of the third downtrend/uptrend often completes the fan pattern and signals the start of a major trend reversal. The starting point of these trend lines should come from a significant peak or a significant trough.

Fibonacci Retracement Level A technical analysis term used to describe potential areas of support (price stops declining) or re-sistance (price stops rising) on the charts. After a strong rally or decline there is a tendency for a security to retrace a certain portion of its prior move (up or down). Fibonacci retracements use hori-zontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before continuing in the original direction. These levels are computed by taking the two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

FSR Forecast Stock Return is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months.

Gap

An open space in a chart created when a stock (or market) opens either higher than its highest level attained during the prior session (referred to as a gap up or an upside chart gap) or lower than its lowest level reached during the prior day (called a gap down or a downside chart gap). Some gaps are caused by events and should be ignored: ex-dividend gaps, new share issues, and expiration of futures contracts.

Golden Cross A crossover on the chart that involves a security’s shorter-term moving average (such as the 50-day moving average) crossing above its longer-term moving average (such as the 150-day or 200-day moving average). Technicians often interpret this crossing of two moving averages as a bullish tech-nical sign that suggests the market has turned in favor of the security.

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern This technical formation is one of the best known of the reversal patterns. There are two types of head-and-shoulders patterns that often appear on the charts – H/S top and H/S bottom. Both of these patterns often denote the process of a reversal either from a bullish or bearish trend. Head-and-shoulders formation often is comprised of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder, and a line drawn across its shoulders defines its neckline. The breaking of the neckline to the upside con-firms a head-and-shoulders bottom breakout, which signals the start of a bullish reversal favoring higher prices. The violation of neckline to the downside validates a head-and-shoulders top, reaf-firming a bearish reversal of lower prices.

Internal Trend Line A single trend line connecting at least several high and low points for a stock (or market) over time.

Linear Regression Band A common statistical technique often used by investors/traders to better forecast values by utilizing the least squares fit method to plot a trend line. A linear regression band consists of upper and lower bands. These bands are calculated by computing the number of standard deviations above or below of the regression line.



Appendix

Moving Average (m.a.) This is a technical indicator frequently used in technical analysis to show the average value of a security’s price over a set period of time. This tool is designed to smooth out a stock’s (or market’s) shorter-term fluctuations to provide a better picture of an underlying trend. Moving averages gener-ally are used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages can be helpful as they emphasize the direction of the dominant or prevailing trend and also tend to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or “noise,” giving the trader or investor a clearer picture of the security in question. Many moving averages exist.

MRA Market Return Assumption is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for the equity risk premium and not a forecast).

Neckline Support/Resistance This is a trend line that is drawn across the bottoms or tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom or top pattern. When prices break through this neckline support level and continue falling after forming the right shoulder, it confirms a head-and-shoulders top formation. Conversely, neckline resistance is a trend line drawn across the tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break above this neckline resistance level and keep on rising, it typically completes the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.

Overbought A technical condition in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that the price be-comes overvalued or has reached the upper band of its trading range resulting in a potential pull-back in price.

Oversold Opposite of Overbought. A technical condition that occurs when the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that the price becomes undervalued or has reached the lower band of its trading range prompting a potential rally.

Positive/Negative “Outside” Day

When one day’s range (high and low) exceeds the prior day’s range, and the stock (or market) in question closes near its daily peak, this is referred to as a positive “outside” day. A negative “out-side” day would be recorded if the stock (or index) finished near its daily low after having a wider range than the prior session. The same rule can be applied on a weekly and monthly basis as well.

Relative Strength

Relative strength is a performance comparison between a sector, group, or stock and the S&P 500 Index over a specified time frame. Our time frame is often a one-, three-, and six-month basis but does vary according to investment orientation.

RRD Rating/Return Divergence is automatically appended to the rating when stock price movement has caused the prevailing rating to differ from that which would be assigned according to the rating system and will be removed when there is no longer a divergence, either through market movement or analyst intervention.

Support An area where increased buying interest is likely to develop during a decline. These points, which can take several forms (minor, major, etc.), often provide downside protection for an issue in a pri-mary uptrend, but only temporary relief to an issue in a primary uptrend, during which time many support levels are often broken.

Top A chart pattern marking a period of distribution following an uptrend. The larger the top, the great-er the downside potential following its completion. It, too, can take many forms.

Triangle Patterns There are three different types of Triangle patterns – Symmetrical, Descending and Ascending. Symmetrical Triangle is considered to be a continuation pattern that often signals a period of con-solidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending trend and an ascending trend. An Ascending Triangle is a bullish pattern, which is denoted by two trend lines – a flat trend line and an ascending uptrend line. A Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern. It is the opposite of the Ascending Triangle in that there is a flat trend line and a downward sloping downtrend line.



Appendix

Statement of Risk

Municipal bonds - Although historical default rates are very low, all municipal bonds carry credit risk, with the degree ofrisk largely following the particular bond’s sector. Additionally, all municipal bonds feature valuation, return, and liquidityrisk. Valuation tends to follow internal and external factors, including the level of interest rates, bond ratings, supplyfactors, and media reporting. These can be difficult or impossible to project accurately. Also, most municipal bonds arecallable and/or subject to earlier than expected redemption, which can reduce an investor’s total return. Because of thelarge number of municipal issuers and credit structures, not all bonds can be easily or quickly sold on the open market.

Disclaimer

In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA. This publication is for our clients’ information only and is notintended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. It does notconstitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation andneeds of any specific recipient. We recommend that recipients take financial and/or tax advice as to the implicationsof investing in any of the products mentioned herein. We do not provide tax advice. The analysis contained herein isbased on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Other than disclosuresrelating to UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates, all information expressed in this document were obtained from sourcesbelieved to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracyor completeness. All information and opinions are current only as of the date of this report, and are subject to changewithout notice. This publication is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets ordevelopments referred to in the report. Opinions may differ or be contrary to those expressed by other business areas orgroups of UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Chief Investment Office (CIO) Wealth Management (WM) Researchis published by UBS Wealth Management and UBS Wealth Management Americas, Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS)or an affiliate thereof. CIO WM Research reports published outside the US are branded as Chief Investment Office WM.UBS Investment Research is written by UBS Investment Bank. Except for economic forecasts, the research processof CIO WMR is independent of UBS Investment Research. As a consequence research methodologies applied andassumptions made by CIO WMR and UBS Investment Research may differ, for example, in terms of investment horizon,model assumptions, and valuation methods. Therefore investment recommendations independently provided by the twoUBS research organizations can be different. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interactwith trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing andinterpreting market information. The compensation of the analyst(s) who prepared this report is determined exclusively byresearch management and senior management (not including investment banking). Analyst compensation is not based oninvestment banking revenues, however, compensation may relate to the revenues of UBS as a whole, of which investmentbanking, sales and trading are a part.UBS AG, its affiliates, subsidiaries and employees may trade as principal and buy and sell securities identified herein. At anytime, investment decisions (including whether to buy, sell or hold securities) made by UBS AG, its affiliates, subsidiaries andemployees may differ from or be contrary to the opinions expressed in UBS research publications. Some investments maynot be readily realizable since the market in the securities is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifyingthe risk to which you are exposed may be difficult to quantify. UBS relies on information barriers to control the flowof information contained in one or more areas within UBS, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of UBS. Someinvestments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on realization you may receive back less than youinvested or may be required to pay more. Changes in foreign currency exchange rates may have an adverse effect onthe price, value or income of an investment. Past performance of an investment is not a guide to its future performance.Additional information will be made available upon request. This report is for distribution only under such circumstancesas may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions orto all categories of investors. Distributed to US persons by UBS Financial Services Inc. or UBS Securities LLC, subsidiariesof UBS AG. UBS Switzerland AG, UBS Deutschland AG, UBS Bank, S.A., UBS Brasil Administradora de Valores MobiliariosLtda, UBS Asesores Mexico, S.A. de C.V., UBS Securities Japan Co., Ltd, UBS Wealth Management Israel Ltd and UBSMenkul Degerler AS are affiliates of UBS AG. UBS Financial Services Incorporated of PuertoRico is a subsidiary of UBSFinancial Services Inc. UBS Financial Services Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by a non-USaffiliate when it distributes reports to US persons. All transactions by a US person in the securities mentioned in this reportshould be effected through a US-registered broker dealer affiliated with UBS, and not through a non-US affiliate. Thecontents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any securities or investment authority in the United



Appendix

States or elsewhere. UBS Financial Services Inc. is not acting as a municipal advisor to any municipal entity or obligatedperson within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act (the "Municipal Advisor Rule") and the opinionsor views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice within the meaning of the MunicipalAdvisor Rule.Version as per September 2015.UBS specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the prior writtenpermission of UBS and UBS accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.© UBS 2016. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.



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