34
Technical Review of Stocks Update –– 1 March 2017 CIO Wealth Management Research Peter Lee, Chief Technical Analyst, [email protected], +1-212-713-8888, ext.01 This report provides technical analysis on stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. This list is not a template for the construction of your personal portfolio. You should discuss investment decisions with your Financial Advisor. For more information about this report, see Description and Methodology in the Appendix. We would like to thank Praveen Dodda, an employee of Cognizant Group, for his assistance in preparing this research report. Cognizant staff provides research support services to UBS. ab This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosures begin on page 32. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Technical Review of Stocks · Technical Review of Stocks ... ACN ACCENTURE 5 MDT MEDTRONIC INC 18 ... DIS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 11 SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 24

  • Upload
    hanhan

  • View
    220

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Technical Review of Stocks

Update –– 1 March 2017 CIO Wealth Management Research

Peter Lee, Chief Technical Analyst, [email protected], +1-212-713-8888, ext.01

This report provides technical analysis on stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. This list is not a template for the construction of your personal portfolio. You should discuss investment decisions with your Financial Advisor. For more information about this report, see Description and Methodology in the Appendix. We would like to thank Praveen Dodda, an employee of Cognizant Group, for his assistance in preparing this research report. Cognizant staff provides research support services to UBS.

ab

This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosuresbegin on page 32. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Table of Contents Ticker Name Page Ticker Name Page AAPL APPLE 4 KO COCA-COLA CO 16 ABBV ABBVIE INC 4 MCD MCDONALD'S CORP 17 ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES 5 MDLZ MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC 17 ACN ACCENTURE 5 MDT MEDTRONIC INC 18 AMGN AMGEN INC 6 MMM 3M CO 18 AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 6 MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 19 BA BOEING 7 MRK MERCK & CO 19 BAC BANK OF AMERICA 7 MSFT MICROSOFT INC 20 BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 8 NKE NIKE INC 20 BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - CLASS B 8 OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 21 CELG CELGENE CORP 9 PEP PEPSICO INC 21 CPB CAMPBELL SOUP CO 9 PFE PFIZER INC 22 CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC 10 PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 22 CVS CVS CAREMARK CORP 10 PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL 23 CVX CHEVRON CORP 11 SBUX STARBUCKS 23 DIS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 11 SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 24 FB FACEBOOK INC 12 T AT&T INC 24 GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 12 TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC 25 GOOGL ALPHABET INC 13 UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE 25 HD HOME DEPOT INC 13 UTX UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 26 HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC 14 V VISA INC-CLASS A 26 IBM INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 14 VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 27 INTC INTEL CORP 15 WFC WELLS FARGO AND CO 27 JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 15 XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 28 JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 16 The last update on these stocks was published on 1 February 2017. Going forward, our previously published rating for these stocks should not be relied upon.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 2

Changes since last report Additions

Ticker Name

Deletions

Ticker Name

Technical Rating Changes

Name Ticker Old New

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 3

Apple Inc (AAPL)

2013 2014 2015 2016 20175050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130

140140

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

133-135/124- 126.5/117-120 115/108-111 145-146 151-152/166- 167/179-180

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $136.66

Rationale: This leading technology successfully rebounded from its key support in May '16 (89.47) coinciding with theextension of its 2011/12 triangle breakout (89-90) and the 61.82% retracement (85.37) from its 2013-15 rally. A sub-sequent falling wedge breakout above 104.50 triggered a recovery that is now challenging its 2015 all-time high (134.54). A convincing move above 134-135 renders next upside to 145-146 (near-term), 151-152/166-167 (medium-term) and 179-180 (long-term). Key initial support is 134-135/126.5 (May'15 high and 10-wk ma) and then 117-120.

AbbVie Inc (ABBV)

Jan '13 Apr '13 Jul '13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Apr '15 Jul '15 Oct '15 Jan '16 Apr '16 Jul '16 Oct '16 Jan '173030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving AverageSource: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

57.5-58.6 54-55/51.6 50.71/45.45 64.5-65.3 68.12/71-71.6 73-75

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Healthcare

Last Sale Price $62.09

Rationale: We retain a Neutral technical stance on ABBV as the result of the 2013 uptrend channel breakout (Aug '15), 2015 rising wedge breakdown (Sep '16) and a weekly death cross sell signal (Oct '16). Although the sharp 36.52% decline may have found support at 45.45 (Oct '15), the ensuing rally has now encountered formidable re-sistance at 69-73 coinciding with the extension of the 2013/Oct '15 uptrends. A 1-year head/shoulders top pattern also warns of further volatility. A breakout above 65.5-68.1 can lead to a retest of its 2014/2015 record highs (71.76-71.6).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 4

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

41-42 39.25/36- 37.5/32-33.5 46.5/48-49 51.74 /54-55 57-59

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Health Care

Last Sale Price $45.68

Rationale: After falling 30.42% from 2015 to 2016 a technical base has developed between 36-37.5 (bottom of its 1-year triangle pattern) and 45-46.5 (top of the triangle, Aug '15 gap down and 2016 highs). This technical base is nec-essary to alleviate an overbought condition and to repair the technical damages incurred during the recent bear de-cline. The ability to breakout above 45-46.5 can extend the rally to key intermediate term resistance along and above 49-51.74(top of 2011 uptrend and Jul '15 all-time high). Violation of 36-37.5 warns of downside risks to the low-30s.

Accenture PLC (ACN)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

117-118 110.3-112.31 108.5-110/108 125-126 130-132 143-145

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $123.43

Rationale: ACN has progressed in a steady uptrend recording a series of higher-highs during Oct'15 (109.86), Jun '16 (120.78), Sep '16 (124.96) and Dec '16 (125.72). However, failure to clear convincingly above 124.96-125.72 coupled with a large gap down on 12/21/16 at 123.09-119.98 has led to a consolidation. Nonetheless, the ensuing 10.7% cor-rection has found key support near 112.31 prompting the recent Feb '17 rally to retest its 2016 all-time high (125.72). A breakout can extend rally to the top of its 2012/2013 uptrend channel at 130-132. Key support is 117-118/110-112.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 5

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160

180180

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

160-165 150-155/140- 144/130-133.7 177-182 193-194 200-201

Technical rating Neutral

Sector HealthCare

Last Sale Price $174.56

Rationale: This Biotech name remains confined to a trading range over the past 2-years between the low-to-mid 130s and the high-170s to low-180s. The gap ups during 11/9/16, 12/13/16, 1/4/17, 1/6/17 and 2/3/17 are technically con-structive and hints of a technical base. However, AMGN needs to clear above 176.85-181.81 (2015/2016 highs) to confirm a major breakout. A breakout renders upside targets to the low-190s and then the low-200s. The 2/3/17 gap up at 160-165 and 10-wk/30-wk ma at 160-163 is key initial support. Secondary support is 150-155 (Jan '17 gap up).

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

200200

300300

400400

500500

600600

700700

800800

900900

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

818-829/792- 810/736-748 696-710/682 847-861/915- 920/980-985 1015-1016

Technical rating Bullish

Sector C. Discretionary

Last Sale Price $845.24

Rationale: We retain a Bullish technical outlook on this leadership name and evident by the acceleration of the up-trend over the past 2 years. However, the 79% rally over the past year has now stalled near its all-time highs at 847-861. A negative outside week on 10/28/16 as well as a large gap down on 10/28/16 hint of a normal consolidation back to its key initial support at 792-810 coinciding with the May '16 breakout, Nov '16 uptrend, 38.2% retracement from the Nov '16 rally and the 30-wk ma. A positive outside week (01/06/17) bodes well for resumption of uptrend.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 6

Boeing (BA)

2013 2014 2015 2016 20176060

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160

180180

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

166-170/159- 160/145-151 138-142 185-187 200-205 215-216

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Industrials

Last Sale Price $177.44

Rationale: This Industrials name continues to trend higher as evidence by strong relative strength (vs SPX) and price momentum (MACD Indicator) breakouts. These technical breakouts are further confirmed by BA recording new all-time highs above its Feb '15 high (158.83). This breakout renders next technical targets to 185-187 (near-term), 200-205 (medium-term) and 215-216 (long-term). Key initial support moves up to 166-170 (10-wk ma) and then 159-160 (Feb'17 breakout). Major support remains at 145-151 (Nov '15 high, 30-wk ma, and 2016 uptrend) and then 138-142.

Bank of America Corp (BAC)

2013 2014 2015 2016 201755

1010

1515

2020

2525

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

23.02-21.95 21.5-22.5 19.0-19.5 25-25.25 26.5/28-29 33-35

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Financials

Last Sale Price $24.23

Rationale: The Financials and BAC have quickly recovered from its Jul '15 to Feb '16 setback (-40.5%) by easily surpas-sing its 2015 high (18.48) and 2010 high (19.86) via a gap up breakout on Nov '16 (19.03-19.40). Although higher prices into the mid-to-high 20s are possible an overbought condition is likely to develop into this sharp rally. Failure to clear above the extension of the 2012/2013 uptrend channel (25-25.25) hints of a near-term consolidation to initial support at 23.02-21.95 (10-wk ma/Jan'17 low). A breakout above mid-20s renders upside targets to 28-29 and 33-35.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 7

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

54.36-53.7 50-48.3/46- 46/5/39.5-41 57-57.5 61-62/64-65 68-70

Technical rating Neutral

Sector HealthCare

Last Sale Price $56.44

Rationale: A negative outside week (7/29/16) followed by a large gap down (8/5/16) first warned of a top. This setup triggered a sharp 36.42% decline as numerous key supports including the 10-wk/30-wk ma (56/58), 10-mo/30-mo ma (61.74/61.67) and the 2012/2013 uptrends (63/65) were broken. A bearish negative outside year in 2016 coupled with a negative outside month (Jan '16) and a 3-plus year head/shoulders top warn further volatility. A deeply oversold con-dition at 46-46.5 (50% retracement from its 2008-2016 rally) may trigger a technical rally to 57-57.5 and then 61-62.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. – Class B stock (BRK.B)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160

180180

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

165-167.25 150-156 142-145/137 174-176 180-185 193-197

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Financials

Last Sale Price $170.22

Rationale: The 1-year correction (-19.22%) from its Dec '14 high (152.94) ended via Mar '16 technical breakout above 138-141 corresponding to the Oct/Nov '15 highs, the 50-61.8% retracement from its 2014-2016 decline and the piv-otal Dec '14 downtrend. The recent breakout to new all-time highs suggest next upside to 174-176 (near-term), 180-185 (medium) and then to 193-197 (long-term). Given the extent of the recent rally, a minor pullback is possible near term to initial support along the 165-167.25 (10-wk ma) and below this to 150-156 (30-wk ma/Feb '16 uptrend).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 8

Celgene Corp. (CELG)

2013 2014 2015 2016 20172020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

110-113/104- 105/99-101 96.93/93-94.5 121-123/127- 129.5/136- 137/140.72

Technical rating Neutral

Sector HealthCare

Last Sale Price $118.23

Rationale: Biotechnology sector (BTK) and CELG appear to establishing technical bottoms via the respective Feb '16 lows (2,575.58/92.98). A subsequent move above the Oct '15 downtrend (112) and Aug '16 highs (118) via 11/9/16 gap up breakout reaffirm a medium-term bottom via a higher-low/higher-high pattern. Key resistances are: 121-123 (Jan '17 highs) and 127-129.5 (Nov '16 highs). A breakout here confirms the resumption of the primary uptrend sug-gesting a retest of 140.72 (Jul '15 high). Initial support is 110-113 (Dec '16 low/30-wk ma) and below this to 104-105.

Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

58.13/56-57 52.59/49.5- 50.59/45-46.5 69.49-61.86 64.23-66.75 67.89

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Cons. Staples

Last Sale Price $59.11

Rationale: The 22.42% decline from Jul '16 high (67.89) appears to have found a bottom near 52.59 coinciding with the prior 2015 breakout, 2012 uptrend and the 38.2% retracement (51.36) from its 2009-2016 rally. A large gap up breakout on 11/22/16 above 56-56.25 hints of a recovery to 64-67. However, the rally from its Nov'16 low has stalled at 64.23 or just below the 76.4% retracement (64.28) from its 2016 decline. A flat relative strength trend (vs SPX) and a flat MACD trend suggest a trading range developing between 58.13 (30-wk ma) and the mid-60s, near-term.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 9

Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1515

2020

2525

3030

3535

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

31.95-32 30.9-30.8 29.84-30 35-37 43-45 48-49

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $34.32

Rationale: A recent surge above 31.95 confirms a technical breakout and renders next upside targets to 35-37 (near-term), 43-45 (medium- term) and then to 48-49 (long-term). The rally from the breakout is now challenging key supply along the top of the 2012 uptrend channel at 35-37. An overbought condition and failure to clear above its 2012 uptrend may trigger a near term consolidation to initial support at 31.95-32 and below this to 30-31 (Feb '17 technical breakout and the 10-wk/30-wk ma). On the upside a breakout above the mid-30s renders technical targets to mid-to-high 40s.

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

74.05-72.83 69.3/66-68.42 62-63/56-58 84.89-86.24 88-89/92-94 97-98/107

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Cons. Staples

Last Sale Price $81.48

Rationale: We retain a defensive technical stance on this retail pharmacy company as a major top has developed soon after the sharp 39% setback from its May '16 high (106.67). Nonetheless, the ability to find support at 69.30 (Nov '16) hints of a technical oversold rally. However, this rally has struggled to clear above its key resistance along the mid-80s or the extension of the 2011/2012 uptrend as well as the May '16 downtrend and the 30-wk ma. A convincing close above 85-86 to reaffirm a technical breakout/recovery. Violation of 74.05 warns of a retest of its Dec'16 lows (69.3).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 10

Chevron Corp (CVX)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

105-108 97.5-99 87-89/78.5 119-120 126-127 135.10

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Energy

Last Sale Price $110.12

Rationale: The ability to find key support at 69.58 (Aug '15) and a higher-low pattern at 75.33 (Jan'16) solidified a major bottom. However, the late-2016 surge above key intermediate-term resistance along the 61.8% retracement (110.07) renders next upside targets to 119-120 (76.4% retracement from 2014-2015 decline and the extension of the 2008 up-trend) and above this to 126-127 (medium), and 135.10 (longer-term). A moderately overbought condition has developed and failure to surpass 119-120 warns of a correction to 105-108 (Oct '16 breakout) and below this to 97.5-99.0.

The Walt Disney Co (DIS)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

106.5-109 99.5-100/91 86.25/75-78.5 113.5-115.5 119-121 127-129

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Cons. Disc.

Last Sale Price $110.32

Rationale: A negative outside month (Aug '15) and gap downs and negative outside weeks during 2015/2016 first warned of an intermediate-term top. After violating the bottom of its 2011 uptrend channel (below 98) DIS achieved its downside target of 86.2 (38.2% retracement from the 2011-2015 rally). A higher-low on Oct '16 (93.21) as well as a subsequent falling wedge breakout above 94-95 (Oct '16) and a weekly golden cross buy signal has led to an over-sold rally which is testing its key resistance at 112-113.5. Failure to breakout may trigger another pullback to 107-109.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 11

Facebook Inc. (FB)

Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

126-129.5 111-115/106- 108/97-100 135-142 153-155 170-173

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $135.44

Rationale: An ascending triangle breakout during Jul '13 above the low-to-mid 30s led to a steeper uptrend channelas defined by 111-115 and 135-142. A breakout above the top of this 3-year uptrend channel renders technical targets to 153-155 and above this to 170-155. The recent correction to 113.50 or the extension of its 2014 channel and a positive outside week (01/06/2017) as well as a gap up (01/13/17) can lead to a retest the top of its uptrend channel at 135-142. The 10-wk and 30-wk ma at 129.5 and 126, respectively offer key near-term support on pullbacks.

General Electric Co (GE)

2013 2014 2015 2016 20171616

1818

2020

2222

2424

2626

2828

3030

3232

3434

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

28-29/27 25.49-26.22 23.5-24/21-22 32.38-33/35- 36/37.75-38.5 39.5-42.15

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Industrials

Last Sale Price $30.19

Rationale: The 7-plus year uptrend channel remains intact as defined by 28-29 and 35-36. After finding support near 28.19 and a positive outside month (Nov '16) have led to another rally back to retest the top of its channel. However, the rally has stalled at 32.38 prompting the recent 9.6% correction. On the downside, key support remains visible along 28-29 coinciding with the Oct/Nov '16 lows, and the bottom of its channel. A flat relative strength trend (vs SPX) and a flat MACD trend warn of a near-to-medium term trading range scenario between the high-20s and the low-30s.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 12

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

300300

400400

500500

600600

700700

800800

900900

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

832/809 778-795/744- 755/673-682 867/875-880 910-917 945-950

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $847.81

Rationale: This leadership new Technology name retains its rising uptrend channel over the past 3-plus years. Alt-hough higher prices are likely, over time an overbought condition as well as a flat-to-sideways relative strength/MACD trends hint of a near-term consolidation. Nonetheless, a breakout above 867 can trigger a rally toward 875-880 (near-term), 910-917 (medium-term) and 945-950 (longer-term). The 10-wk ma (832) and 30-wk ma (809) provide key initial support. The bottom of its uptrend channel at 755 as well as its Nov/Dec '16 lows remains medium-term support.

Home Depot (HD)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

139-142/131- 133/119-123 110-112 149-152 158-161 163-164

Technical rating Bullish

Sector C. Discretionary

Last Sale Price $145.95

Rationale: The recent breakout above the top of its 1-year uptrend channel between 119-122 and 149-152 still sup-port the basis for higher prices to 158-159. We suspect the rally from 2008 low (+758%) is strikingly similar to the pri-or 1995-2000 rally (+757%) suggesting a likely overshooting of upside targets once again. The top of its 2011/2012 uptrend channel is at 158-161 suggesting key resistance. Failure to breakout here may set the stage for the next con-solidation. Initial support is 139-142 (10-wk ma and Feb '17 channel breakout) and then to 131-133 (30-wk ma).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 13

Honeywell International Inc. (HON)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

118-120/115.5 107-111/102- 105/93-96.5 125-126 130-133 151-152/156

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Industrials

Last Sale Price $125.03

Rationale: An ascending triangle breakout on Feb '16 above 107.5 renders upside targets to 119-120 (achieved) and then to 125-126 (extension of 2012 channel). A large gap down on 7/22/16 has triggered a minor correction to key initial support at 105-107 (Aug'15 uptrend and 30-mo ma). The ability to find support here coupled with a positive outside day on 11/09/2016 has triggered another rally to crucial initial resistance at 125-126. A convincing close above this supply may extend the rally to 130-133 and then to 151-152. Initial support is 118 -120 (Jul '16 high/10-wk ma).

International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

120120

140140

160160

180180

200200

220220

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

173-175 164-166/153- 155/140-142.5 192.5/196- 199/211-212 215.90

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $181.35

Rationale: A 3-plus year downtrend channel breakout above 165 is technically significant as this signals the start of a medium-term recovery. The rally from the breakout has met its initial target of 176-179.25 (the 61.8% retracementfrom its 2013-16 decline, Oct '14 gap down and May '15 high). Although higher prices to 192.5/196-199 (76.4% re-tracement /Apr'14 highs) and then to 211/215.90 (2012-2013 highs) are possible, over time a consolidation is probably in order. Violation initial support at 173-175 may trigger a correction to 164-166 (Feb '16 uptrend and 30-wk ma).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 14

Intel Corp (INTC)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

33-34 30.44 29.5/27.5-28 38-38.5 43.5-44.75 46.5-48/51.46

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $36.53

Rationale: A 12-year head-and-shoulders bottom breakout (29.5) on Jun '14 still renders upside to the mid-to-high 40s. However, the recent strong rally has briefly stalled near 38-38.5 coinciding with the Oct '16 highs. Also note the negative outside week (10/14/16) and negative outside month (Oct '16) warn of a near-term consolidation. This action helps to alleviate an overbought condition and sets into motion a breakout above 38.4 triggering the next rally to the mid-to-high 40s. Initial support is 33-34 (Aug '15 uptrend and Oct/Nov '16 lows) and then 30.44 (Jul '16 lows).

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

116-118 111/105-107 102/94-96 122.5-123 126.97/132- 134/137-139

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Healthcare

Last Sale Price $122.73

Rationale: A multi-year channel breakout above the mid-70s during 2013 signaled the start of an outperformance cycle. This leadership Healthcare name has quickly exceeded a number of intermediate-term technical targets including the low-110s and the low-to-mid 120s. During the recent correction, JNJ has found key support at 109 prompting the recent rally to the low-120s. A breakout here may trigger a retest of its all-time highs of 126.07 established on Jul '16. On the downside, initial support moves up 116-118 or the extension of Jul '16 downtrend and the 10-wk/30-wk ma.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 15

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

88.17-87.5 83.03-81 79-77/74.54 96.5-97 101-106 111-112

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Financials

Last Sale Price $90.33

Rationale: This leading Financials name has reversed back above the extension of its 2012/2013 uptrend in the high 80s. This technical action has further strengthened the intermediate-to-long term trend outlook. Next key resistance is evident near the mid-to-high 90s and above this to the low-100s. However, a moderately overbought condition warns of a near-term consolidation. Initial support is at 87.5-88.17 (10-wk ma and Jan'17 high) and below this to low-80s (extension of the 2013 uptrend). Violation here warns of a decline to 79-81 (30-wk ma and the Dec '16 gap up).

Coca Cola Co (KO)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

40.6-39.88 39.06/38-37.85 36.5-35.5 43.5-44.33 46.01-47.13 52-54

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Cons Staples

Last Sale Price $41.78

Rationale: This Consumer Staples has once again failed to breakout above the top of its uptrend channel at 46.01(Jun'16 high). A weak relative strength (vs SPX) and a negative outside week (07/29/16) have triggered a decline to initial support at 39.61-39.06 (Mar'15/ Aug'14 lows). The ability to find support here may trigger an oversold rally to43.5-44.3 (50% retracement from its Apr-Dec'16 decline and above to 46.01-47.13 (Apr/Jul'16 highs). However, viola-tion of 39.06 (Aug'14 low) warns of the start of a deeper correction to the bottom of its trading range at 35.5-36.5.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 16

McDonald’s Corp (MCD)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

123.9/117.7- 118.9/109-110 102-105 128.6/131.96 141-143 149-150

Technical rating Neutral

Sector C. Discretionary

Last Sale Price $128.65

Rationale: During the recent correction MCD held onto key support at 110.33 or the extension of its 2012-2013 uptrend and the 50% retracement (109.73) from its 2015-16 rally. This promptly led to an oversold rally which now challenges key resistances at 128.60 (Jul '16 high) and 131.96 (May'16 high). A breakout here renders is bullish as this renders next up-side targets to 141-143. However, failure to clear above this supply may lead to a consolidation to initial support at 124 (10-wk ma) and below this to 117-119 (Dec'16 low/30-wk ma). Violation here warns of a deeper decline to 109-110.

Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

40.5-41 39.21-39.68 35.88-36/37 46.36-47.42 48-49 57-59

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Cons. Staples

Last Sale Price $45.38

Rationale: A major base breakout in Mar ‘13 above 28.76 (not shown) confirms a long-term Bullish trend. Since then MDLZ has followed a steady uptrend recording new all-time highs during Jul '14 (39.54) and again during Aug '15 (48.58).A breakout above 46.36 (Jul '16 high) signals the resumption of its uptrend and next target to the high-40s. However, negative outside weeks (11/11/16 and 02/17/17) also warns of downside risks to 39.21(Mar '16 low) and below this to 37 (extension of its 2014 breakout). Key supports: 40.5-41 (Dec'16 low) and the mid-30s (Feb '16 low).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 17

Medtronic Inc. (MDT)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

79.31/76.96 74 /69.35 65.50-63.98 81.66-85.01 88-89 93-95

Technical rating Bullish

Sector HealthCare

Last Sale Price $81.03

Rationale: The recent 1-plus year base technical breakout above 78.5 (Apr '16) still renders upside targets to 88-89(near-term) and then to 93-95 (medium-term). However, after breaking out at 83.02 (11/04/16) the rally abruptly re-versed direction near 85.09 as evidenced by an island reversal (11/11/16). This led to the violation of key support at80.71 (Oct'16 low) thereby accelerating the correction to 69.35. The ability to find support along the extension of 2013 uptrend hint of a recovery to 81.66/85.01 (61.8-78.6% retracement from 2016-17 decline and Nov'16 high).

3M Co (MMM)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

176-179/172 160.09-163.85 158.14-158 200/205-207 215 219-220

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Industrials

Last Sale Price $187.41

Rationale: This Industrials leader remains in a steady uptrend setting record highs during Mar'15(170.5) and again on Aug'16 (182.27). Soon after recording all-time highs, an overbought condition and a negative outside week on 10/28/16 warn of a near-term correction. The primary uptrend can continue as long as stock maintains above its key initial support at 170-172 or the prior 2016 breakout. Recent surge above 182-183 confirms a technical breakout and renders next upside targets to 200-207 (near-term) and above this to 215 (medium-term). Key initial support is 176-179.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 18

Altria Group Inc. (MO)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

69-71 66.46/60.82 56/51-52 75/78-80 82 85-86

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Cons Staples

Last Sale Price $74.43

Rationale: Since 2009, MO has progressed in a steady uptrend recording new highs during Feb'15 (56.69) and again during July'16 (70.15). After failing to clear above the top of its 2012 uptrend channel at 70.15, a 13% correction met its downside target in the low-60s (Oct'16). This prompted an oversold rally which is now challenging resistance at 73-75(extension of its 2015 uptrend). The ability to breakout can extend the rally to the high-70s (top of its 2013/2015 chan-nel) and to mid-80s. Key support is 70.15 (Jul'16 high) and below this to 70.35-66.46 (10-wk and 30-wk ma).

Merck & Co (MRK)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

64-65/62- 65/58.3-58.5 55-56.4 75-77 83-85 90.8-91.5

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Healthcare

Last Sale Price $66.16

Rationale: Breakout from the 1-plus year downtrend channel and a close above the 61.82% retracement from its 2015 decline at 56-57 coupled with a recent surge above 61.62-63.6 hint of the resumption of the primary uptrend. A positive outside week during 01/06/17 prompted an oversold rally to its initial resistance at 65.46 (Nov'16 high price). The breakout from this supply zone suggests upside targets to the mid-70s and then to low-to-mid 80s, intermediate-term. Key support is near 64(Aug'16 high) and below this to 62.5-62.2(10-wk ma and 30-wk ma) and 58.3-58.5.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 19

Microsoft Inc. (MSFT)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

61.95-63.64 60.38/58-59 55.6-56.3 66/70-71 74-75 82-83

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $64.62

Rationale: MSFT continues to trend higher on the backdrop of strong relative strength (vs SPX) and favorable price momentum (MACD indicator). The strong relative strength is a reflection of the technical breakout above its Jan/Aug '16 highs at 56.8-58.7. The uptrend can continue as long as the stock maintains above its key initial support at 58.70. Recent surge above 61.37 solidifies its technical breakout and renders next upside targets to the low-to-mid 70s (near-term) and above this to the low-80s (medium-term). Key initial support is 61.95-63.64 (Jan'17 low/10-wk ma) and 60.38.

Nike Inc. Cl B (NKE)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

54.09/53.92 51.6/49-45.80 38.88-40.13 58.86/60.33 62.98 64-65.4

Technical rating Neutral

Sector C. Discretionary

Last Sale Price $57.86

Rationale: The Sep-Oct'16 correction led to violation of the bottom of its 2012 uptrend channel. A triangle pattern breakdown along the low-50s during Oct'16 and a potential head/shoulders top pattern warns of further downside risks to high-40s (the bottom of its downward channel (48-49). A moderately oversold condition and the ability to hold 49.01(Nov'16 low) has triggered a technical rally to 58.86 (Aug'15 high) and above this could extend the rally to 60.33. Failing to cross this supply zone can lead to a pullback to 53.92- 54.09 (10-wk ma and Jan'17 high) and 51.6-50.70.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 20

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

64.37-64.00 63.21 58.22-58.79 71-72/75.6 79.8/85-87 90-91

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Energy

Last Sale Price $64.89

Rationale: A 2-year falling wedge pattern breakout above 71-72 during mid-Apr '16 hints of a medium-term recovery. However, weak relative strength (vs SPX) and against energy peers warn of underperformance. OXY has struggled to close above its 50% retracement (79.78) from the 2014-2016 decline. The 18% decline from its Sep'16 high (78.48) and the rolling over the 10-wk /30-wk ma warns of a major top. Failing to maintain support at 64.37 could extend the decline to 58.22 (Jan'16 low). The ability to find support here can lead to a technical base between low-60s to low-70s.

Pepsico Inc. (PEP)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

105.2-105.5 100/98.5-97.5 93.25-94 110.94/115- -117/125 127/135-136

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Cons Staples

Last Sale Price $109.83

Rationale: A surge above 79.79 during Apr '13 confirms a multi-year breakout and renders upside targets to 115-117, over time. However, on a medium term basis, the 18.97% rally from its Jan '16 lows has created a moderately over-bought condition suggesting a consolidation before the resumption of uptrend toward 115-117.After violating the bottom of its 2016 uptrend channel a successful test of the high-90s (the bottom of the 2011/2012 uptrend) has trig-gered a rally to Jul'16 high. Short term support is 105.2-105.5 (10-wk and 30-wk ma) and below this to 98.5-100.12.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 21

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

32.65-33.0 31.6/30.9- 30.5/29.83 34.50-35.77 36.07 37.39/40

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Healthcare

Last Sale Price $34.26

Rationale: A negative outside week (8/5/16) coupled with a weekly death crossover (10/14/2016) led to a 4 month 20% correction till 29.83 (11/04/16). This prompted an oversold rally which is now approaching 34.50-35.77(61.82% and 78.6% retracement from its Aug-Nov'16 decline). After achieving the mid-30s target a consolidation can lead to a pullback to 32.65-33.00(10-wk ma and 30-wk ma) and below this to 31.61 (Oct'16 low). However, a breakout above 37.39 (Aug'16 high) signals the resumption of its primary uptrend and renders next upside target to low-to-mid 40s.

Procter & Gamble Co (PG)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

90.3/86.9- 86.4/83.2-81 79.1-74.46 93.89 100.7-105 111-116

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Cons. Staples

Last Sale Price $91.05

Rationale: During the recent correction key support was found near 81.18 (38.2% retracement (80.59) from its 2015-16 rally). This prompted an oversold rally which now challenges resistance at 93.89 (Dec'14 high). A breakout here reaffirms the primary uptrend and renders next upside targets to 100.7-105 and above this to 111-116. However, failure to clear resistance of 93.89 may trigger a near-term consolidation to initial support is at 90.33(Oct'16 high) and below to 86.98-86.42 (10-wk ma/30-wk ma). Secondary supports moves up to 83.24(Jan'17 low) and then to 81.18 (Dec'16 low).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 22

Philip Morris International (PM)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

100.58/96-97 89.97-90 86.78-86.32 107-108 116-118 122-123

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Cons Staples

Last Sale Price $107.72

Rationale: A 6-month head/shoulders top pattern and a weekly death crossover sell signal on 09/30/16 led to a viola-tion of initial support of 94-97 or Jul'16 low. The ability to find support at the 61.82% retracement of 2015-16 rally (86.32) coupled with positive outside week during 01/20/17 prompted the technical rally to the mid-100s. The Feb'17 breakout at 104.20 signals the resumption of its uptrend and renders targets to 107-108 and then to 116-118, over time. However, a moderately overbought condition may trigger pullback to initial support at 100.58 (Aug '16 high).

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

55.7/53.8-52.6 50.84/48-49.5 46-46.5/41-42 59.54-61.64 63.5-64 67-68/70-71

Technical rating Bullish

Sector C. Discretionary

Last Sale Price $57.48

Rationale: The longer-term trend remains favorable as long as SBUX retains its primary uptrend channel dating back to 2008/2009 bottom (48-49.5).However, a negative outside month (Apr '16) coupled with a failure to surpass the top of its 1-year downtrend channel (59-60) warn of a consolidation to the mid-50s and below this to low-50s. A breakdown below the low-50s warns of a trend reversal favoring lower prices. A convincing move above 59.54-61.64 helps to re-affirm a sustainable rally to the mid-to-high 60s (medium-term) and possibly to the low-70s (longer-term).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 23

Schlumberger Ltd (SLB)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

78.7-76.92 74.33-72.0 66-68 87-88/95-96 99-101 103/110

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Energy

Last Sale Price $80.15

Rationale: A negative outside week on 5/8/15 coupled with a weekly death cross sell signal during Aug'15 led to a sharp correction. An oversold condition and a successful test of the bottom of its falling wedge at 59.6 (Jan '16) signal a recovery. A subsequent falling wedge breakout at 74-76 prompted a rally to 87 (Jul'15 high). This resistance zone coincides with the extension of the 2012-2015 uptrend. A breakout here can extend the rally to the mid-to-high 90s.However, violation of key support near 76.92-74.33 (Sep/Nov'16 lows) warns of selling to the mid-60s.

AT&T Inc. (T)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support Levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

40.24/38.16 36/33-33.72 31-32 43.89-44 47.50/50-51 59-60

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Comm. Services

Last Sale Price $42.36

Rationale: This Telecommunication services name has corrected sharply after violating its prior 3-plus year breakout in the high-30s. The decline from 43.89(Jul'16 high) has found support near the 61.82% retracement (35.91) from the 2015-2016 rally and the extension of the 2013 downtrend channel breakout (35-36) and prompted an oversold rally back above the top of its 3-plus year channel. A breakout from this supply zone (39.72-40) suggests rally till 43.89 (Jul'16 high) and to high-40s. Failure to clear this supply suggests near-term consolidation within high-30s to mid-40s.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 24

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

72.47-71.99 66.3-66.80 59-60 78-79 90-91 99.78

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $77.24

Rationale: This technology name continues to trend higher retaining its strong relative strength readings (vs SPX) and favorable price momentum (MACD Indicator).The relative strength has strengthened as a result of the recent technical breakout above Mar/Oct '15 highs at 59-60. This breakout here reaffirms new highs and renders next upside technical targets to the high-70s (near term) and to low-90s (medium term). Key initial supports moves up to 72.47-71.99 coin-ciding with the Jan'17 low or 30-wk ma. Secondary support is visible near 66.30-66.80 (Sep'16, Nov'16 low).

United Parcel Service (UPS)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

103.87-100 93.64-94 90/87.30 111-112/118 120.4/127-130 141.50

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Industrials

Last Sale Price $106.18

Rationale: A negative outside week (12/16/16) coupled with a gap down on 1/31/2017 has pressured the stock to decline below 10-wk ma (116). The ability to find support near the mid-100s (50% retracement (103.87) from its Jan-Dec'16 rally) may contain the selling. Violation here opens the door for a decline to mid-90s and below this to Jan'16 lows (87.30) or bottom of its uptrend channel. However, a moderately oversold condition may prompt a relief rally to 111.83-112 (Jul'16 high/10-wk ma). A medium term trading range is likely to develop between 94-95 and 112-118.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 25

United Technologies Corp (UTX)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

106-107/100.7 93.08-92.07 91.63-87.17 114-115 119.5-120.6 124.45

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Industrials

Last Sale Price $112.46

Rationale: Although the longer-term still remains favourable, the intermediate-term technical outlook has weakened due to the 2009 uptrend breakdown at 101-102 during Jul '15. The recent rally from the low-100s is now challenging key resistance of 114-115, which coincides with the extension of the 2012 uptrend as well as the 76.4% retracement (114.76) from the 2015-2016 decline. A surge above this supply zone can help to strengthen the recovery to the 119.5-120.6 and above this back to the Feb'15 record highs at 124.45. Key initial support is 106-107 and to 100-101.

Visa Inc Cl A (V)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

83-84/81.71 81.54/75.17-76 73.25 92-96 98/102-103 108-110

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Technology

Last Sale Price $88.43

Rationale: After a 1-year consolidation this technology name has finally broken out above its 83.96 (Nov '16 high) cou-pled with a weekly golden cross buy signal reaffirms continuation of uptrend towards 92-96 or to the top of its uptrend channel. A breakout here further renders next upside targets to as high as 108-110 (extension of 2012/2014 uptrend), over time. Initial supports moves up to as high as 83.3 and then to 81.71 (10-wk and 30-wk ma). Failure to clear above the extension of Jan '14 uptrend (96-98) hints of a near-term consolidation to initial support near Nov '16 high (83.96).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 26

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

Source: FactSet, UBS as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

47.8-46.01 45-43.79 42.02/38.06 53/54-55 56/59 -60 62.31

Technical rating Bullish

Sector Comm. Services

Last Sale Price $50.60

Rationale: A multi-year breakout above 2007 highs (43.01) in late-2012 renders an upside target to 62.3-64.5 over the longer term. An island reversal (7/5/16), weekly death cross sell signal (Sep'16) and violation of 49-50 (Apr and May'16 lows) led to a 19.2% decline that found key support at 45-46 (Feb'15 lows and the extension of 2014-2015 downward sloping channel breakout). The above action prompted an oversold rally which failed to sustain above Apr'16 highs led to 12.8% correction from 54.83.Ability to hold support of 45-46 may prompt a relief rally back to 55.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

56.31/53-54 50-51 43.55-45 63-64 67-68 73-74

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Financials

Last Sale Price $57.81

Rationale: The Feb'17 technical breakout (above 58.77) signals rally to the mid-to-high 60s or to challenge the exten-sion of the bottom of its 2011-2012 uptrend channel. The relative strength (vs SPX) has been improving as a result of the recent technical breakout above Jul'15 highs. The longer-term trend will turn favorable once WFC enters into its uptrend channel dating back to 2011-2012. Failure to clear above this channel may trigger a near-term consolidation to 56.31(10-wk ma) and below this to 53.34(Jan'17 low). Key resistance is at 63-64 and above this towards 67-68.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 27

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)

Source: FactSet, UBS, as of 24 February 2017

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third

80-81 77.6-73.4 71-72 85-86/89 93-95/101 104.7-105

Technical rating Neutral

Sector Energy

Last Sale Price $81.08

Rationale: The recovery from Mar '16 breakout has stalled near 95-96 or the 76.4% retracement from its 2010-2014 rally and the 2007/2008 highs prompting a pullback to low-80s or to the bottom of the Aug'15 uptrend. The ability to find support here can ignite the next rally back to mid-to high-90s (Jan'17, Jul'16, Nov'14 highs). A breakout above 95-96 is technically important as this signals the resumption of its primary uptrend. However, failing to hold support at low-80s warns of a correction to low-70s (Jan'16 lows or to 76.4% retracement (73.4) from its 2015-2016 rally).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 28

Appendix

Description and Methodology This report provides technical analysis on a dynamic list of stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. Please note that technical views are highly variable and will change with market conditions. Accordingly, these rat-ings are only valid as of the publication date. Because CIO WMR equity sector analysts and WMR technical analysts employ different analytical methodologies, technical recommendations are, at times, contradictory to fundamental recommendations for the same security. For the latest company ratings by WMR sector analysts, please refer to the most recent equity sector research reports, located in the Equity Section on the Online Services Research website. For more background on the content of this report, please see Technical Analysis Research Primer, 18 February 2010.

Appendix

Term / Abbreviation Description / Definition

% +or- Moving Avg (DMA)

The percentage above or below the moving average (see Moving Average) is used to help measure an overbought or oversold condition and is a component of risk management. It is calculated by taking the difference between the group price and its 30-week moving average (see below), and then dividing by the 30-week moving average times 100.

30-Week Moving Average Also known as the 30-week line or 150-day line), this is one of the most popular and respected moving average indicators (see Moving Average) in technical circles. It is calculated by totaling the latest 30 weekly (usually Friday closing) prices and dividing by 30 to arrive at the average. Each week, the most recent week’s figure is added to the total, and the price level from 30 weeks ago is subtracted – hence the term “moving.” Please note that a breakout above or breakdown below this line does not, in and of itself, constitute a buy or sell signal.

Adjusted Relative Strength (ARS) Number gives a 50% weighting to the 1-month relative strength, 30% to the 3-month, and 20% to the 6-month numbers to arrive at a single weighted number.

Base A chart pattern marking a period of accumulation following a downtrend. The larger the base, the greater the upside potential following its completion. A base can take many forms.

Beta A measure of volatility of a security as it relates to the market as a whole. Beta is often calculated using regression analysis. A beta is basically the tendency of a security’s returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 implies that the security’s price will be more volatile than the market.

Blow off stage to a major rally This is often the last stage of a speculative bubble to a major rally. The blow off phase tends to be steep, but short-lived that often affords little opportunity for investors/traders to exit their positions. As price of a security or an asset advanced to an unsustainable level via a parabolic uptrend this give rise to the bursting of the speculative bubble resulting a quick and dramatic decline as inves-tors/traders try to exit the market/security at the same time.

Breakdown A technical term indicating a downside resolution of a chart pattern. Its significance is determined by the same factors governing a breakout.

Breakout A technical term indicating an upside resolution of a chart pattern. Breakouts can take many forms, and their degree of importance is determined by the significance of the chart pattern which preced-ed it.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 29

Appendix

Broadening Top Formation The Broadening top is a rare technical formation that resembles an inverted triangle pattern. It is formed by price swings that are increasingly widening and expanding volume. The most common of these broadening top patterns are the three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The combination of wide price swings and increasing volume often convey an increasingly volatile and emotional market that's basically out of control. This pattern is often associated with market tops rather than market bottoms. The confirmation of the Broadening top occurs when the price violates the second of these two troughs.

Channel

A chart pattern comprised of two parallel trend lines, which form a trading band. Channels take the form of uptrend, downtrend and horizontal.

Death Cross The opposite of a golden cross, this is a crossover on the chart resulting from a security’s shorter-term moving average falling below its longer-term moving average. Technicians often see this as a bearish technical sign indicating the market has turned negative on the security.

Downtrend Line

A trend line connecting successively lower peaks for a stock (or market). Its technical significance is determined by the same factors governing an uptrend line.

Fan reversal pattern The fan formation is a technical pattern that is based on the use of multiple trend lines to denote a major trend reversal. The fan pattern gets its name as it basically resembles a “fan”. It should have a minimum of three trend lines (uptrends or downtrends). The break out/break down of the third downtrend/uptrend often completes the fan pattern and signals the start of a major trend reversal. The starting point of these trend lines should come from a significant peak or a significant trough.

Fibonacci Retracement Level A technical analysis term used to describe potential areas of support (price stops declining) or re-sistance (price stops rising) on the charts. After a strong rally or decline there is a tendency for a security to retrace a certain portion of its prior move (up or down). Fibonacci retracements use hori-zontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before continuing in the original direction. These levels are computed by taking the two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

FSR Forecast Stock Return is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months.

Gap

An open space in a chart created when a stock (or market) opens either higher than its highest level attained during the prior session (referred to as a gap up or an upside chart gap) or lower than its lowest level reached during the prior day (called a gap down or a downside chart gap). Some gaps are caused by events and should be ignored: ex-dividend gaps, new share issues, and expiration of futures contracts.

Golden Cross A crossover on the chart that involves a security’s shorter-term moving average (such as the 50-day moving average) crossing above its longer-term moving average (such as the 150-day or 200-day moving average). Technicians often interpret this crossing of two moving averages as a bullish tech-nical sign that suggests the market has turned in favor of the security.

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern This technical formation is one of the best known of the reversal patterns. There are two types of head-and-shoulders patterns that often appear on the charts – H/S top and H/S bottom. Both of these patterns often denote the process of a reversal either from a bullish or bearish trend. Head-and-shoulders formation often is comprised of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder, and a line drawn across its shoulders defines its neckline. The breaking of the neckline to the upside con-firms a head-and-shoulders bottom breakout, which signals the start of a bullish reversal favoring higher prices. The violation of neckline to the downside validates a head-and-shoulders top, reaf-firming a bearish reversal of lower prices.

Internal Trend Line A single trend line connecting at least several high and low points for a stock (or market) over time.

Linear Regression Band A common statistical technique often used by investors/traders to better forecast values by utilizing the least squares fit method to plot a trend line. A linear regression band consists of upper and lower bands. These bands are calculated by computing the number of standard deviations above or below of the regression line.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 30

Appendix

Moving Average (m.a.) This is a technical indicator frequently used in technical analysis to show the average value of a security’s price over a set period of time. This tool is designed to smooth out a stock’s (or market’s) shorter-term fluctuations to provide a better picture of an underlying trend. Moving averages gener-ally are used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages can be helpful as they emphasize the direction of the dominant or prevailing trend and also tend to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or “noise,” giving the trader or investor a clearer picture of the security in question. Many moving averages exist.

MRA Market Return Assumption is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for the equity risk premium and not a forecast).

Neckline Support/Resistance This is a trend line that is drawn across the bottoms or tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom or top pattern. When prices break through this neckline support level and continue falling after forming the right shoulder, it confirms a head-and-shoulders top formation. Conversely, neckline resistance is a trend line drawn across the tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break above this neckline resistance level and keep on rising, it typically completes the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.

Overbought A technical condition in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that the price be-comes overvalued or has reached the upper band of its trading range resulting in a potential pull-back in price.

Oversold Opposite of Overbought. A technical condition that occurs when the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that the price becomes undervalued or has reached the lower band of its trading range prompting a potential rally.

Positive/Negative “Outside” Day

When one day’s range (high and low) exceeds the prior day’s range, and the stock (or market) in question closes near its daily peak, this is referred to as a positive “outside” day. A negative “out-side” day would be recorded if the stock (or index) finished near its daily low after having a wider range than the prior session. The same rule can be applied on a weekly and monthly basis as well.

Relative Strength

Relative strength is a performance comparison between a sector, group, or stock and the S&P 500 Index over a specified time frame. Our time frame is often a one-, three-, and six-month basis but does vary according to investment orientation.

RRD Rating/Return Divergence is automatically appended to the rating when stock price movement has caused the prevailing rating to differ from that which would be assigned according to the rating system and will be removed when there is no longer a divergence, either through market movement or analyst intervention.

Support An area where increased buying interest is likely to develop during a decline. These points, which can take several forms (minor, major, etc.), often provide downside protection for an issue in a pri-mary uptrend, but only temporary relief to an issue in a primary uptrend, during which time many support levels are often broken.

Top A chart pattern marking a period of distribution following an uptrend. The larger the top, the great-er the downside potential following its completion. It, too, can take many forms.

Triangle Patterns There are three different types of Triangle patterns – Symmetrical, Descending and Ascending. Symmetrical Triangle is considered to be a continuation pattern that often signals a period of con-solidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending trend and an ascending trend. An Ascending Triangle is a bullish pattern, which is denoted by two trend lines – a flat trend line and an ascending uptrend line. A Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern. It is the opposite of the Ascending Triangle in that there is a flat trend line and a downward sloping downtrend line.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 31

Appendix

Statement of Risk

Equities - Stock market returns are difficult to forecast because of fluctuations in the economy, investor psychology,geopolitical conditions and other important variables.

Required Disclosures

Analyst Certification

Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that withrespect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflecthis or her personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be,directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the researchreport.

CIO Wealth Management Research equity selection systemEquity sector strategists provide three equity selections: Most Preferred (MP), Least Preferred (LP) and Bellwetherdesignation.

Rating definitionsMost Preferred*: The equity sector strategist expects the stock to outperform the relevant benchmark in the next 12months.Least Preferred*: The equity sector strategist expects the stock to underperform the relevant benchmark in the next12 months.Bellwether: Stocks that are of high importance or relevance to the sector and which the equity sector strategist expectsthe stock to perform broadly in line with the sector benchmark in the next 12 months.*A stock cannot be selected as Most Preferred if UBS Investment Research rates it a Sell, while a UBS Investment ResearchBuy rated stock cannot be selected as Least Preferred.

Restricted: Issuing of research on a company by CIO WMR can be restricted due to legal, regulatory, contractual or bestbusiness practice obligations which are normally caused by UBS Investment Bank’s involvement in an investment bankingtransaction in regard to the concerned company.

Technical Research Rating Definitions

Rating Corresponding Rating Category Definition and criteriaBullish Buy Well-defined, reliable uptrend, an increase in the rate of change

(or strong momentum) and confirming technical indicators.Neutral Hold Trading range trend, a flat rate of change and confirming

technical indicators.Bearish Sell Negative or weakened trend, momentum and confirming

technical indicators.N/A Not enough historical data to make an evaluation.

For a complete set of required disclosures relating to the companies that are the subject of this report, please mail arequest to UBS CIO Wealth Management Research Business Management, 1285 Avenue of the Americas, 20th Floor,Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10019.

Disclosures (1 March 2017)3M Co. 1, 3, 4, Abbott Laboratories 1, 3, 4, AbbVie 1, 2, 5, Accenture Plc 1, 3, 4, Alphabet Inc. Class A 1, 2, 5, 11, AltriaGroup Inc. 1, 3, 4, Amazon.com Inc. 1, 3, 4, Amgen Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Apple Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, AT&T Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 10,Bank of America 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 1, 2, 7, Boeing Co. 1, 3, 4, 7, Bristol-MyersSquibb Co. 1, 3, 4, Campbell Soup Co. 1, 3, 4, Celgene Corp. 1, 2, 5, 11, Chevron 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, Cisco Systems Inc. 1,2, 3, 4, 10, 11, Coca-Cola Co. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, CVS Health 1, 3, 4, Exxon Mobil 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, Facebook 1, General ElectricCo. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 13, Home Depot Inc. 1, 3, 4, Honeywell International Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, Intel Corp. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,7, 10, 11, Intl Business Machines 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, Johnson and Johnson 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 11, 12, 14, JPMorgan 1, 2, 3,

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 32

Appendix

4, 5, 11, 12, 15, McDonald's Corp. 1, 3, 4, 7, Medtronic Inc. 1, 2, 5, 10, 11, Merck and Co Inc 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11,Microsoft Corp. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 13, Mondelez International 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 16; Nike Inc. 1, Occidental Petroleum 1,PepsiCo Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, Pfizer Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 13, Philip Morris Intl Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12, Procter &Gamble Co. 1, 3, 4, 10, Schlumberger 1, 3, 4, Starbucks Corp. 1, 2, 5, 16; Texas Instruments Inc. 1, 3, 4, United ParcelService Inc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, United Technologies Corp. 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 16; Verizon Communications Inc. 1, 2, 3,4, 6, 10, Visa Inc. 1, 2, 5, Walt Disney Co. 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 13, Wells Fargo 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12,

1. UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs of this company.2. Within the past 12 months, UBS Securities LLC and/or its affiliates have received compensation for products andservices other than investment banking services from this company/entity.3. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Financial Services Inc, and non-investment banking securities-related services are being, or have been, provided.4. Within the past 12 months, UBS Financial Services Inc has received compensation for products and services otherthan investment banking services from this company.5. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-securitiesservices are being, or have been, provided.6. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securitiesof this company/entity or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months.7. The equity analyst covering this company, a member of his or her team, or one of their household members has along common stock position in this company.8. UBS Limited is acting as financial adviser for Lloyds Banking Group on the acquisition of MBNA Ltd from Bank ofAmerica9. UBS Limited is acting as sole financial advisor to HSH Nordbank in relation to the sale of it's non-performing loanportfolio to Macquarie Bank Ltd. and Bank of America Corporation10. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and investmentbanking services are being, or have been, provided.11. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-investmentbanking securities-related services are being, or have been, provided.12. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment bankingservices from this company/entity within the next three months.13. The UBS Wealth Management strategist, a member of his or her team, or one of their household members has along common stock position in this company.14. UBS Securities LLC is acting as manager/co-manager, underwriter, placement or sales agent in regard to an offeringof securities of this company/entity or one of its affiliates.15. The equity analyst covering this company was previously an employee of the company during the past 12 monthsand received compensation from the company during that employment.16. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of this company's common equitysecurities as of last month's end (or the prior month's end if this report is dated less than 10 days after the most recentmonth's end).

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 33

Appendix

Disclaimer

In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA. This publication is for our clients’ information only and is notintended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. It does notconstitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation andneeds of any specific recipient. We recommend that recipients take financial and/or tax advice as to the implicationsof investing in any of the products mentioned herein. We do not provide tax advice. The analysis contained herein isbased on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Other than disclosuresrelating to UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates, all information expressed in this document were obtained from sourcesbelieved to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracyor completeness. All information and opinions are current only as of the date of this report, and are subject to changewithout notice. This publication is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets ordevelopments referred to in the report. Opinions may differ or be contrary to those expressed by other business areas orgroups of UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Chief Investment Office (CIO) Wealth Management (WM) Researchis published by UBS Wealth Management and UBS Wealth Management Americas, Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS)or an affiliate thereof. CIO WM Research reports published outside the US are branded as Chief Investment Office WM.UBS Investment Research is written by UBS Investment Bank. Except for economic forecasts, the research processof CIO WMR is independent of UBS Investment Research. As a consequence research methodologies applied andassumptions made by CIO WMR and UBS Investment Research may differ, for example, in terms of investment horizon,model assumptions, and valuation methods. Therefore investment recommendations independently provided by the twoUBS research organizations can be different. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interactwith trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing andinterpreting market information. The compensation of the analyst(s) who prepared this report is determined exclusively byresearch management and senior management (not including investment banking). Analyst compensation is not based oninvestment banking, sales and trading or principal trading revenues, however, compensation may relate to the revenuesof UBS as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading and principal trading are a part.UBS AG, its affiliates, subsidiaries and employees may trade as principal and buy and sell securities identified herein. At anytime, investment decisions (including whether to buy, sell or hold securities) made by UBS AG, its affiliates, subsidiaries andemployees may differ from or be contrary to the opinions expressed in UBS research publications. Some investments maynot be readily realizable since the market in the securities is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifyingthe risk to which you are exposed may be difficult to quantify. UBS relies on information barriers to control the flowof information contained in one or more areas within UBS, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of UBS. Someinvestments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on realization you may receive back less than youinvested or may be required to pay more. Changes in foreign currency exchange rates may have an adverse effect onthe price, value or income of an investment. Past performance of an investment is not a guide to its future performance.Additional information will be made available upon request. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances asmay be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors. Distributed to US persons by UBS Financial Services Inc. or UBS Securities LLC, subsidiaries of UBSAG. UBS Switzerland AG, UBS Deutschland AG, UBS Bank, S.A., UBS Brasil Administradora de Valores Mobiliarios Ltda,UBS Asesores Mexico, S.A. de C.V., UBS Securities Japan Co., Ltd, UBS Wealth Management Israel Ltd and UBS MenkulDegerler AS are affiliates of UBS AG. UBS Financial Services Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of a report preparedby a non-US affiliate when it distributes reports to US persons. All transactions by a US person in the securities mentionedin this report should be effected through a US-registered broker dealer affiliated with UBS, and not through a non-USaffiliate. The contents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any securities or investment authorityin the United States or elsewhere. UBS Financial Services Inc. is not acting as a municipal advisor to any municipal entityor obligated person within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act (the "Municipal Advisor Rule")and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice within the meaningof the Municipal Advisor Rule.Version as per June 2016.UBS specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the prior writtenpermission of UBS and UBS accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.© UBS 2017. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 1 March 2017 34