Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE - SMALL HYDRO DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA • Andrew Njoba • Team Leader, Clean Energy Promotion • KENYA ASSOCIATION OF
MANUFACTURERS • KENYA
Agenda
1 About KAM / DFID Clean Energy Promotion Program
2 DFID Program Activities
3 Why Climate Change Mitigation?
4 Policy – The Driver for Clean Energy Investment
THE KAM TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM
240MW
Generating
1,170 GWh of
electricity each
year
460,000 # of Kenyan Homes
Powered Per Year
Ready Project Pipeline:
▪ Began in 2012 ▪ Assisted 100+ Projects in East
Africa Project Pipeline includes:
▪ Installed capacity of 240MW ▪ Total Capex of $570 Million
CLEAN ENERGY PROMOTION - OBJECTIVES
Objectives:
▪ Catalyze Private-sector Investment
▪ Improve Policy Framework
▪ Reduce CO2 Emissions
▪ Job Creation
Specific Activities: 1.) Feasibility Studies 2.) Awareness Creation 3.) County Govertment Legislation Support 4.) Capacity Building
Concept Study
Pre-Feasibility
Establish Business
Need
Feasibility Study
Front End Engineering
Design
(FEED)
Develop Business
Case
Develop Procurement
Strategy
Develop Spec and Tender
Tender Selection and
Award
Financial Close
Establish Commercial
Arrangements
Detailed Engineering
Construction Management
Commissioning and Acceptance
Project Implementation
Commercial Operation
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
Pre-Development Phase
KAM Support
FEASIBILITY STUDIES SUPPORT
Technologies Supported: ▪ Small Hydros ▪ Solar PV ▪ Waste-to-Energy
Source: Ministry of Energy 7
POLICY – DRIVER FOR CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENTS
8
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
RENEWABLE ENERGY – POLICY DEVELOPMENT
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2000
6
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
RENEWABLE ENERGY – POLICY DEVELOPMENT
Market-based mechanisms – eg, Auctions, Certs, Portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2016
BNEF Summit, New York, 5 April
2016
7 Kenya FIT - 2008
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
$62bn
$175bn
$128bn
$88bn
$206bn $207bn
$274bn
$318bn $297bn
$272bn
$316bn $329bn
2012 2013 2014 2015
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE WHILE OIL PLUMMETED
GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS WTI CRUDE SPOT 2004-15
$146/bbl
Record
investment
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011
$37/bbl
Source: Bloomberg BNEF Summit, New York, 5 April
2016
1
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
14
15
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
Date - Q4, 2014 16
Kenya FIT - Project Pipeline (Dec’15)
Category Wind Biomass Biogas Small Hydro
Solar PV Geothermal TOTAL Total
Capacity (MW)
Plants in Operation 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
1
Projects With Signed PPA's
2 1 0 10 0 0 13
106
Projects with Initialled PPA's
2 0 1 1 0 0 4
158
Projects with Finalized PPA Negotiations
0 1 0 0 2 0 3
19
Projects with PPA's under Negotiations
2 1 0 2 7 0 12
323
Approved Projects with PPA Negotiations Yet to Start
1 1 1 14 1 0 18
225
Projects in Feasibility Study Stage
7 10 4 29 28 1 79
1,661
Total no. of Approved Projects
14 14 6 58 38 1 131
2,492
Total Capacity
(MW)
628
254
53
293
1,249
15
2,492
Source: Government of Kenya – Ministry of Energy & Petroleum 17
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
FIT Approved Projects – as of Q4’15
13
2,038
3,474
6,768
10,097
15,006
1,482
1,278
3,141
4,659
8,226
12,141
17,764
2009/10 2023/24
202
6/27
2029/30 2014/15
2018
/19
Peak Demand (MW)
Total Capacity (MW)
5,000
4,491
4,200
2,200
1,600
Geothermal
Fossil
Nuclear
Hydro Imports
Wind Hydro
17,754MW TOTAL CAPACITY MIX
263
Today’s Peak = 1,570MW Installed Capacity 2,298MW Demand is 30%-40% lag
National Plan to add 50%
of Renewables
KENYA – VISION 2030 ENERGY ROADMAP
Wind farms are a disaster
for the environment. They
kill the birds. They are very
expensive in terms of
energy. They're made in
China. Donald
Trump US Presidential Candidate Picture: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
BNEF Summit, New York, 5 April
2016
28
TRUMP ON WIND TRUMP ON WIND
POLICY – DRIVING INVESTMENT
THE OPPORTUNITY – SMALL HYDRO DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA
20
Our Goal – Development of low impact Small Hydros
Example of a Run-of-the-River low impact hydropower system.
Low Impact Small Hydro Power Plants
21
SMALL HYDROs OPPORTUNITY
Study – Grid Connection
22
SMALL HYDROs OPPORTUNITY T&D IMPROVEMENTS
OUR VISION – INCREASE IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENTS
Studies on River Nyamindi, Mt Kenya Basin Kirinyaga County, KENYA Scope of Works : ▪ Hydrology Studies ▪ Grid Connection Studies ▪ Economic Analyses ▪ Completed March, 2015
Gitie SHP – 2.2MW
Riamathakwa – 3MW Kiamutugu I – 3.3MW Kiamutugu II – 1.2MW
PROJECTS COMPLETED - 2015
PREFEASIBILITY STUDIES – SMALL HYDROS
Prefeasibility Studies – Mount Elgon Basin Western Kenya Scope of Works : ▪ Hydrology Studies ▪ Grid Connection Studies ▪ Economic Analyses ▪ Completed March, 2015
Nzoia River – 1MW
Suam River – 2MW
PROJECTS COMPLETED - 2015
PREFEASIBILITY STUDIES – SMALL HYDROS
Kleen Energy – 6.5MW Small Hydro Rupingazi River, Embu
Power Station Site
▪ Feasibility Study Completed – Q1’13
▪ EOI Submitted – Q2’13
▪ Other Pre-development work: 2013-2015
▪ PPA Signed – Q3’15
▪ Financial Close – Early 2016
▪ Construction – Late 2016
STUDIES COMPLETED
Kleen Energy Small Hydro Project
Kenya Power PPA Signing Ceremony – August 12, 2015
STUDIES COMPLETED
SMALL HYDRO – KTDA 5.8MW Gura SHPP
• EPC Contract awarded to VS Hydro Ltd on
26thJune 2012
• Contract completion date: March 2015
• Extended by 6 months to September 2015
• Expected annual generation: 27,300 MWh
PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
SMALL HYDRO – KTDA 1.5MW Iraru
• Expected annual generation:
9,350,000kWh
• Expected completion date:
December 2016
PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
SMALL HYDRO – KTDA 5.6MW
North Mathioya
• Expected annual generation:
28,400,000kWh
• Expected completion date:
Dec 2016
PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PROJECT RISKS
31
Risk Elements & Considerations
▪ Technology:
– Suppliers / track record
– Warranty
▪ Revenue:
– PPA structure (i.e., security of
revenue stream)
– Tradable credits (Carbon Mkts)
▪ Sponsors:
– Timeline Commitments
– Track record
▪ Construction:
– EPC / turnkey (i.e., structure)
– Contractor / track record
▪ Site control
– Land lease / license arrangements
• Easements
• Transmission/Distribution
▪ Permits
– Environmental
– Local issues (County)
▪ O&M / Asset Management:
– Contractor / track record
– Equipment/Service Warranties
– Transmission
– Incentives for good performance
▪ Regulatory:
– Change in law
32
PROJECT RISKS
Andrew Njoba Team Leader, DFID Clean Energy Promotion
Program KENYA ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS
[email protected] Tel: (0722) 201368
