TC Watch/Warning Group Update

Michael Brennan and Daniel BrownNational Hurricane Center

2009 NOAA Hurricane ConferenceMiami, Florida

2 Dec 2009

Storm Surge Warning

Background• Team formed in August

2009

• Grew out of agenda items from previous NOAA Hurricane Conferences – Unify terminology of inland

and coastal hurricane and tropical storm wind warnings

– Simplify issuance of VTEC codes for tropical cyclone related watches/warnings

NCZ095-103-104-282100- /O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W DUCK-NC 36.23N 75.77W

GMZ530-555-LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-131045- /O.CAN.KLIX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS- COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION- LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST- UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS- UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-

Team Members• Tim Schott (OS21)• Walt Zaleski (SRH)• Harvey Thurm (ERH)• Bill Sammler (AKQ)• Rich Bandy (MHX)• Gene Hafele (HGX)• Steve Letro (JAX)• Mike Brennan and Dan Brown (NHC)

Team Objectives1. Define a unified terminology and process (including IT) for issuing

watches and warnings associated with TC wind.

2. Coordinate with, and facilitate work by, the storm surge watch/warning team where interests coincide.

3. Address the WFOs’ desire for an event-ending time for NHC-led watches and warnings.

4. Increase WFOs’ flexibility in deciding which coastal zones will be included in each TCV while supporting NHC’s needs to accommodate national level customers, etc.

5. Unify, to the extent possible, the issuance product(s) for TC watches and warnings. Currently, TC watches/warnings for coastal zones are implemented in VTEC through the TCV. Inland TC watches/warnings and coastal marine zone TC watches/warnings are implemented in VTEC through the HLS. WFOs desire a single VTEC product for implementing all TC watches/warnings.

SPC/WFO Collaboration• Build on convective

watch collaborative process between SPC and WFOs– SPC defines broad outline

of watch area– WFOs provide feedback

to SPC about details of watch placement (inclusion or exclusion of counties near edge of SPC watch area)

Progress Made So Far• NHC would issue internal product (TCL) outlining preliminary

watch/warning areas • TCV should be retained and expanded to include inland (and

possibly marine) zones – TCV provides functionality of Watch/Warning Outline Update

Message (WOU) used by convective program

– TCV would be “national level” watch/warning product for national partners and vendors

• Unify terminology for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch/Warning for coastal and inland zones– Retire HI and TI VTEC codes

– Depending on progress of NWS storm surge team, team felt best time to do this would be concurrent with implementation of storm surge warning

Potential Issues• Desire by WFOs to have an expiration time on

all watches and warnings• Determination of who has final say when

there is disagreement between a WFO and NHC or between WFOs

• Developing technological tools to ensure efficient collaboration process

• Mechanism for issuance of watches for systems that have not yet become a TC

Potential Issues• Mechanics of collaboration between NHC and

as many as 10-15 WFOs– Typical SPC watch collaboration is with 4 WFOs

• Hurricane Hotline is not available to all potentially affected WFOs– Collaboration will likely have to occur outside

Hotline framework• NHC will look into possibility of releasing

preliminary wind speed probabilities to WFOs for the collaboration process

VTEC “Event End Time” - Uses• USE - Provides data users (media, emergency

responders, officials, public, etc.) projected cessation of tropical cyclone event/impacts.

– Example: 090713T2100Z (VTEC Event End Time)

• YEAR 09• MONTH 07• DAY 13• TIME (UTC) 2100Z

In the above example, tropical cyclone conditions were projected to end by 21Z on July 13, 2009.

VTEC “Event End Time” - Uses• Dissemination – VTEC “Event End Time” aids in the automated

delivery and depiction of tropical cyclone events/impacts.

– Critical information may be scrolled, graphically depicted /deleted automatically.– Removes human intervention/judgment from dissemination/receipt process.

• Event Duration – Allows users to project duration of tropical cyclone impacts in order to better prepare for the protection of life and property.

• Planning – Helps officials better assess, plan and project extent of economic and infrastructure loss/disruptions due to duration of tropical cyclone event/impacts.

• Response – Helps officials determine when to safely deploy disaster response resources and restore critical infrastructure in a timely and effective manner.

Technological Requirements• NHC needs access to GFE that will allow for

collaboration over a wide domain– NHC would identify preliminary watch and warning

zones and send to WFOs via Inter-site Coordination (ISC) grids

• Will probably be at least 3 seasons (2012) before new tools can be brought into AWIPS II

• OS21 will initiate an OSIP project for a long term plan for creating a collaborative software tool for the issuance of all TC watches and warnings for coastal and inland zones