TEL: 516.504.7576 | FAX: 516.498.2029 | EMAIL: info@ibf.org | WEB: www.ibf.org/1010.cfm

Disney’s Contemporary Resort, Orlando, FL | October 24-26, 2010

SUPPLY CHAIN PLANNING & FORECASTING: BEST PRACTICES CONFERENCEw / A DVA N C E D S & O P F O R U M

Planning

And Forecasting

Supply Chain

Early Bird

Special Conference

Only Pricing:

$895

WHEN YOU REGISTER BEFORE

SEPT 10, 2010

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WORKSHOP REGISTRATION FEE: with conference, an additional $100

FORUM REGISTRATION FEE: with conference, an additional $199

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PRE-CONFERENCE ADVANCED PRACTICES IN S&OP FORUM: BEYOND THE BASICS

SUNDAY | SUNDAY | 1:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Advanced Executive S&OP: Beyond the Basics

A lot has happened since Sales & Operations Planning was

born. It has grown and evolved into a far more powerful

process than it was initially.

This panel will examine two aspects of S&OP:

1. Where is it today? How specifi cally has the process evolved

and expanded over the 30 years since its creation

2. Where is it going? How will it look ten or so years into the

future?

The presenters will include fi ve practitioners from companies

who are successfully S&OP to manage their businesses far

better than they could before

Key learnings include how S&OP is being advanced to:

• Support earnings calls to corporate or Wall Street

• Provide key suppliers with S&OP-generated information,

enabling better on-time deliveries from heavily constrained

sources of supply

• Coordinate and integrate global businesses

• Generate superior new product launch plans, making the

launches more “sure-footed” and hence more successful

• Generate superior demand plans and forecasts in highly

complex situations

• And More!

MODERATOR:

Tom Wallace, Principal

T.F. Wallace & Co. LLC

PANELISTS:

Pam BowerDirector Trade Collaboration and Demand Management Whirlpool Corporation

John GallucciDirector, Demand & Supply Planning

Nestle Infant Nutrition

Grant HoffmanDirector of Global Business Operations

Motorola

Next Generation S&OP—Key Building IBlocks for Success

Join us for this multi-perspective workshop covering three

fundamental building blocks that are keys to success in the

next generation S&OP journey. The speakers will provide a

practitioner’s view on these fundamentals along with an

academic perspective as well as a supply chain consultant’s

deployment experiences. Our workshop will also provide

insight into supply chain Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk.

We’ll share with the audience a new ERM, Enterprise-wide

Risk Management Framework, Defi nitions, Templates

and Tactics to effectively mitigate risk within the S&OP

landscape and global supply chain.

You will learn about:

• Product Portfolio Management

• Customer Segmentation/Tiering

• Total-Cost-to-Serve Supply Chain Models

Gregory L. SchlegelVP Business Development

SherTrack LLC

Jeff MeterskyVice President, Supply Chain Strategy Practice

CHAINalytics LLC

How to Align Sales & Operations IIPlanning with Strategic Intent

This workshop will explore utilizing S&OP as a strategic

tool, not a one-size-fi ts-all plan. Businesses with strategies

such as customer relationships or product/service

differentiation require a different emphasis. These sectors

include specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and

drink, fast moving consumer goods and hi-tech. Learn

the strategic differences in S&OP implementation from a

case study showing how the S&OP process changes when

the strategy changes from cost leadership to product

differentiation. Join us to learn how S&OP drives strategy,

leading to different choices and better response to the

supply chain.

You will learn:

• How to align the S&OP process with the business

strategy

WORKSHOPS

DAY 1 | MONDAY | OCT 25 | 8:30 AM – 11:30 PM

Alan Milliken, CPFManager, Business Process Solutions

BASF

Jay Nearnberg, CPFSenior Director, Demand Planning

Pfi zer

3

1-DAY HANDS-ON STATISTICAL FORECASTING & PLANNING TUTORIAL

DAY 1 | MONDAY | OCT 25 | 8:30 AM – 4:30 PM

Section 1

INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS FORECASTING• Types of forecasting methods a] Judgmental methods b] Extrapolative (time series)

methods• Data considerations (e.g., missing data, outliers, etc.)

Section 2

INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES: MOVING AVERAGES, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, GENERALIZED MEMORY MODELSAmong all models, time series models are the ones that are used most in business.

• Simple moving averages• Exponential smoothing models

Section 3

REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING AND QUANTIFYING RELATIONSHIPS WITH PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EVENTSRegression is the basic tool for measuring the relationship between variables. It is often used where some understanding of the underlying reasons for the forecasted values is needed.

• Classical regression model• Simple regression• Multiple regression• Interpreting results

Section 4

MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCEThe measurement of forecast accuracy is essential in any forecasting process.

• Goodness of fi t vs. forecast accuracy and the “tail-wagging the dog fallacy”

• Within-sample vs. out-of sample tests

• Rolling out of sample evaluations

Section 5

“PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER” • Forecasting best practices

Summary • Productivity aids to help you

forecast better• Forecasting processes• Data collection & analysis

Section 6 (Bonus if time permits)

COMBINING REGRESSION AND TIME SERIES METHODS• Compensating for correlation

with previous time periods• Classical model

c] Explanatory (cause-and-effect) methods d] Integrated time series with

cause and effect methods.

• Holt Winters methods• Automatic model selection

• Regression coeffi cients• The R-squared statistic• “t” ratios and statistical signifi cance• Multicollinearity

• Three important statistical measures of forecast accuracy: MPE, MAPE, and WMAPE

• Designing an out-of sample test; multiple origins and multiple lead times

• Tracking forecast error ongoing.

• Methods & models; How to select a forecasting package

• Software & systems people• Collaboration, communication &

commitment

• Lead and lag effects on causal variables.

• Estimating models.

Fred M. Andres, President

PhredTek, Inc. | Logistics Consulting Service

Ms-Excel will be Used for Demonstration Exercises. Bring Along Your Laptop (Optional)

3

TUTORIAL REGISTRATION FEE: with Conference, an additional $100

• How to maximize S&OP benefi ts while improving

customer relations

• How to determine the best strategy for each type of

business

Mike WilsonGlobal S&OP Manager

Syngenta AG

Andy ColdrickFounder

Ling-Coldrick.com

Rick LingPresident

Demand Technologies, Inc.

Building Visibility and Transparency IIIin the Demand Planning Process

This workshop will outline the key steps in creating a

transparent and collaborative demand planning management

environment. Learn how data and metric sharing across all

functional areas, real time communication of events and their

execution within the plan impacts executive level visibility. Join

us for an interactive workshop demonstrating how to gain

useful and practical knowledge through an implementation

simulation. Witness how transparency leads to a breakdown

of the ‘silo’ mentality and promotes company goals. Learn

how to build and implement effective tools, which foster

an environment of transparency, which lead to increased

awareness and visibility within the S&OP process.

You will learn:

• Key steps to creating an effective demand planning

management environment

• How to build an effective and transparent planning

culture

• How to use transparency to initiate collaboration with

customers

Thomas SavageForecast Analyst

Donald MitchellDirector, Corporate Forecasting

Dorman Products

Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting | Best Practices Conference w

/ Advanced S&

OP Forum

| To Register, please call: 516 504 7576 or visit: ww

w.ibf.org/1010.cfm

WORKSHOPS (CONTINUED)

44

3 How TORO Synchronized their Supply Chain with Consumer DemandThe presentation will cover a high volume product line retailed at Home Depot. It includes the processes used and the changes made in the internal processes and procedures as well as customer facing changes. The result was synchronization and signifi cant improvement throughout the entire supply chain. Based on these results, Toro won Home Depot’s Partner of the Year award in 2009. Join us to learn how to move your company into position to grow your business into a true competitor.

You will learn:• How to upgrade supply chain planning by including consumer

demand• How to recognize where changes can be made to the

processes and technology • How to move your company to the next level in supply chain

planning & forecasting

Nadim ZoberiCorporate Continuous Improvement Manager

The Toro Company

4 Addressing the Next Generation of Forecasting RequirementsIf you could build or design the perfect demand planning process and system, what capabilities would you include in it? In this presentation, we will discuss the drivers that initiated this quest. We will highlight the data and system needs we feel are essential to make decisions that will lower forecast error and improve information delivery for all parties concerned. Join us for a discussion on assessing various tools and practices and how to utilize tools that will bring future process improvements. This presentation will also include lessons we have learned in our journey.

You will learn:• Factors driving the quest to the latest forecasting requirements• Business case elements

• What is needed in the next generation of tools

Jay Nearnberg, CPFSr. DirectorCollaborative Planning/Process Mgt

Pfi zer Consumer Healthcare

5 Conducting Effective Monthly Consensus MeetingsThe monthly consensus meeting gathers members of different functional groups, each with their own perspective, with the goal of agreeing on a single forecast number. Participants make judgments about the forecast to reach a consensus and all plans are based on that number, benefi tting the entire company’s operation. The consensus meeting facilitator uses fact-based data to highlight issues that require discussion. Using skills and techniques gained through experience, and by establishing ground rules, the facilitator keeps the meeting on point and participants

1 Using Exception Management to Improve Demand Planning & ExecutionSome of the lessons learned in the signifi cant downturn in the economy and associated volatility in demand, include the need to identify and manage exceptions in both planning and execution. Applying exception management as part of the forecasting process improves the demand plan and a review after the forecast is used to determine what went wrong. During the month, exceptions to plan should be identifi ed and actions taken to avoid excess inventories or stock-outs. This session will address the role of exception management in demand planning and execution of plans.

You will learn:• To develop and use business-specifi c exception rules• How to leverage software to monitor and provide

action alerts• How to incorporate exception management in the

planning & execution process

Alan L. Milliken, CPFBusiness Education Manager

BASF Corporation

2 How to Meet Demand Planning Challenges in a Global CompanyAs more companies enter the global market, many struggle with outdated or overwhelmed demand planning processes. Hollister was no exception; emerging countries experienced forecast error as high as 40-60%. Many of the forecast analysts were splitting their time between forecasting and other duties such as managing customer service or operations. About 2 years ago, Hollister embarked on globalizing their Demand Planning S&OP process using best practices while respecting cultural differences. Please join us as we walk through the current Demand Planning S&OP processes and reports.

You will learn:• About Hollister’s globalized Demand Planning S&OP process• How four demand planners successfully handle a nearly $1

billion medical device business• About reporting that developed from end user feedback

Mike KelleherChief Forecaster – North America

Hollister, Inc.

KEYNOTE PRESENTATION

The CPFR-S&OP Continuum

Nikhil SagarVice President, Retail Inventory ManagementOffi ceMax Incorporated

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Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting | Best Practices Conference w

/ Advanced S&

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| To Register, please call: 516 504 7576 or visit: ww

w.ibf.org/1010.cfm

with tools and information needed to become an effective meeting facilitator, a key skill for every forecaster.

You will learn:• How to create and execute an agenda that encourages a

productive consensus forecasting meeting• How to engage and empower meeting members, and learn

techniques for becoming an effective facilitator• What to present in the consensus meeting and how to resolve

confl icts

Gail Merritt, Demand Planner

BIC Consumer Products

6 The Lean Demand Forecasting Process – Really!At the heart of every demand-driven enterprise is the demand forecasting process. The agility of this process dictates the responsiveness of the enterprise. Managing the many inputs to the forecast process can be very time consuming and error prone. Using lean concepts exposes wastes that can be eliminated and improve the responsiveness of the demand forecasting process. Additionally, we will examine the opportunities of “leaning out” this process.

You will learn:• Which lean concepts can be applied to the demand forecast

process• How to eliminate waste in the demand forecasting process• Measuring forecast improvement

Janice Gullo, CPFLean Supply Chain Master Blackbelt

DuPont

7 Business Model Innovation Spurs Supply Chain ImprovementWhether it is internal operations or customer facing activities, companies providing better service to their customers, while being cost-effi cient, are the ones fi nding success in this challenging economy. In this session, learn the critical integration of operations and the supply chain into the business through experiences of a global team leader responsible for the recent expansion of an online business model. A number of lessons learned and how they are applied to many situations, this presentation will demonstrate how a company’s operations behind the scenes play a critical role in overall success and failure.

You will learn:• Strategies for supply chain optimization• How optimization of the supply chain can lead to increased

supply chain effi ciencies

• Constant tracking allows for continuous improvement in delivering effi ciencies

Michael R. LevelyGlobal Process & Operations Manager

Xiameter / Dow Corning

8 How to Revitalize Your S&OP ProcessMany companies have worked diligently on their S&OP processes, but are they as effective as possible? If there is room for improvement, then all issues standing in the way of maximum effectiveness need to be resolved. For some organizations, that may mean focusing on a few specifi c items, others may need wholesale change. Improvements include accommodating changes in the market, business, or organizational structure. In this presentation, we will discuss some of the challenges of keeping S&OP vibrant and give specifi c guidance on focus areas to rejuvenate your process and drive success for the company. Learn to make S&OP your platform for continuous improvement, results management, organizational alignment, and development of leaders.

You will learn:• What challenges companies participating in a research study

are having with S&OP• Key areas you can focus on to improve your S&OP process• How to benchmark and track your S&OP maturity against best

practices

Eric Tinker, Principal

Nexview Consulting

9 Organization Design, Career Path Considerations for Sourcing, Retaining and Growing the Right Talent for Tomorrow’s Demand Planning and Forecasting FunctionThis interactive session will consider a new approach for organization design and career path opportunities, along with its implications in a demand planning organization. It explores the need to bring visibility to the function, understanding the ideal profi le of a successful demand planner of the future and how to tailor sourcing, retaining and personal/ professional growth strategies in order to create a team that can innovate and evolve with changing business needs.

You will learn:• What the ideal profi le of a future demand planner is and how

to attract the right talent• How to retain the talent through career path opportunities

and by bringing recognition to the profession• How to support personal and professional development of the

team so the team can be the source of innovation

Girish GulvadyDirector of Demand Planning

Campbell Soup Company

“Quality, quality and quality... for the speakers, the subjects and the conference in general. Kudos! ”

Richard Groulx, Logistics Manager,

PREVOST (div. of Volvo Bus)

Nexview

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think that our way is the best way, we believe that there is no one perfect set of measurements. The key is how you adapt the available metrics to fi t with your company’s culture, and how you use the data to drive improvement or to support decisions. We will share how we create our “perfect” set of metrics to measure our supply chain performance and how to drive improvement and decisions with this information. Join us and see if you can rise to the challenge. This presentation will help you to evaluate your “perfect” set of metrics, while fi nding opportunities for improvement within your own company.

You will learn:• Practical ways to measure the quality of your forecast• How to adapt standard forecasting metrics to apply to your

company• Utilizing metric results to drive improvement

Jim WorkmanSupply Chain Consultant

Natalie Bolt ScheidlerSupply Chain Consultant

Eli Lilly & Company

13 Communications, Your Number One Forecasting ToolDo you know what the demand for your product is going to be? Probably not and given normal forecast accuracy, certainly not very far out into the future. There are a number of tools available to improve a forecast; S&OP, analytics and enough programs to sink a super-computer. What is the most important thing you can add to your forecasting toolbox? The ability be understood by communicating clearly and concisely. In this session, we will share thoughts on what we mean by communications, how to improve your communications skills and why this is critically important.

You will learn:• Why clear and complete communications are important to the

forecasting process• Communications as a two way process , listening is a

communication skill• How you can improve your communications skills to gain buy-

in for your forecasts

Ed White, CPFSupply Chain Specialist

Bayer Canada Inc.

14 Improve Your Forecasts By Including Marketing’s View In a typical S&OP process, representatives from each function bring a different view of the business and contribution to reaching a single consensus fi nished goods forecast. This presentation explores some of the thought processes, tools and point of view used by marketing to forecast demand in a branded consumer products company. Additionally, learn to understand how marketing’s view

“From creating a simple demand plan, to developing a complex and robust S&OP process IBF serves as a great

resource for any size company ” James Gregorio, Executive Director Demand Planning,

SONY PICTURES HOME ENTERTAINMENT

10 Developing the Baseline Forecasting ProcessWe all know that baseline forecasts can provide the unbiased input to the forecast decision-making process. However, defi ning the baseline forecast and how it benefi ts the organization can be a challenge. This presentation shares lessons learned and insights on the baseline forecasting processes and approaches that we have found effective at Microsoft. We will explain exactly how to capture a baseline and use it to build useful information for more accurate forecasts now and in the future.

You will learn:• The defi nition of baseline forecasts• Useful approaches for effective baseline forecasting• The challenges to establishing the baseline forecast

Hiroyuki Takechi, CPFBaseline Forecaster

Microsoft

11 Driving S&OP Decision Making through Forecasting S&OP is anchored on cross-functional alignment, and it begins with an accurate, unbiased, and mutually supported, consensus demand plan. S&OP process leaders must identify the potential obstacles that can prevent this result, and act quickly to ensure “win-win” results that enable the balancing of demand and supply, and the attainment of business objectives. The approach outlined in this session provides insights on generating process credibility through optimized decision making, and value generation across functions.

You will learn:• Why S&OP Processes sometimes fail• How to handle disagreements within the consensus demand

planning process with a “win-win” outcome• How S&OP scenario planning can effectively mitigate risks

John GallucciDirector of Demand & Supply Planning

Nestle Infant Nutrition

9 “Perfect” Forecasting Metrics for Imperfect ForecastsEvery company has their preferred metrics and reports, and everyone utilizes this information differently. While we all like to

5

Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting | Best Practices Conference w

/ Advanced S&

OP Forum

| To Register, please call: 516 504 7576 or visit: ww

w.ibf.org/1010.cfm

engaged. This session provides participants with tools and information needed to become an effective meeting facilitator, a key skill for every forecaster.

You will learn:• How to create and execute an agenda that encourages a

productive consensus forecasting meeting• How to engage and empower meeting members, and learn

techniques for becoming an effective facilitator• What to present in the consensus meeting and how to resolve

confl icts

Gail Merritt, Demand Planner

BIC Consumer Products

6 The Lean Demand Forecasting Process – Really!At the heart of every demand-driven enterprise is the demand forecasting process. The agility of this process dictates the responsiveness of the enterprise. Managing the many inputs to the forecast process can be very time consuming and error prone. Using lean concepts exposes wastes that can be eliminated and improve the responsiveness of the demand forecasting process. Additionally, we will examine the opportunities of “leaning out” this process.

You will learn:• Which lean concepts can be applied to the demand forecast

process• How to eliminate waste in the demand forecasting process• Measuring forecast improvement

Janice Gullo, CPFLean Supply Chain Master Blackbelt

DuPont

7 Business Model Innovation Spurs Supply Chain ImprovementWhether it is internal operations or customer facing activities, companies providing better service to their customers, while being cost-effi cient, are the ones fi nding success in this challenging economy. In this session, learn the critical integration of operations and the supply chain into the business through experiences of a global team leader responsible for the recent expansion of an online business model. A number of lessons learned and how they are applied to many situations, this presentation will demonstrate how a company’s operations behind the scenes play a critical role in overall success and failure.

You will learn:• Strategies for supply chain optimization• How optimization of the supply chain can lead to increased

supply chain effi ciencies

• Constant tracking allows for continuous improvement in delivering effi ciencies

Michael R. LevelyGlobal Process & Operations Manager

Xiameter / Dow Corning

8 How to Revitalize Your S&OP ProcessMany companies have worked diligently on their S&OP processes, but are they as effective as possible? If there is room for improvement, then all issues standing in the way of maximum effectiveness need to be resolved. For some organizations, that may mean focusing on a few specifi c items, others may need wholesale change. Improvements include accommodating changes in the market, business, or organizational structure. In this presentation, we will discuss some of the challenges of keeping S&OP vibrant and give specifi c guidance on focus areas to rejuvenate your process and drive success for the company. Learn to make S&OP your platform for continuous improvement, results management, organizational alignment, and development of leaders.

You will learn:• What challenges companies participating in a research study

are having with S&OP• Key areas you can focus on to improve your S&OP process• How to benchmark and track your S&OP maturity against best

practices

Eric Tinker, PrincipalNexview Consulting

9 “Perfect” Forecasting Metrics for Imperfect ForecastsEvery company has their preferred metrics and reports, and everyone utilizes this information differently. While we all like to think that our way is the best way, we believe that there is no one perfect set of measurements. The key is how you adapt the available metrics to fi t with your company’s culture, and how you use the data to drive improvement or to support decisions. We will share how we create our “perfect” set of metrics to measure our supply chain performance and how to drive improvement and decisions with this information. Join us and see if you can rise to the challenge. This presentation will help you to evaluate your “perfect” set of metrics, while fi nding opportunities for improvement within your own company.

You will learn:• Practical ways to measure the quality of your forecast• How to adapt standard forecasting metrics to apply to your

company• Utilizing metric results to drive improvement

Jim WorkmanSupply Chain Consultant

Natalie Bolt ScheidlerSupply Chain Consultant

Eli Lilly & Company

“Quality, quality and quality... for the speakers, the subjects and the conference in general. Kudos! ”

Richard Groulx, Logistics Manager,

PREVOST (div. of Volvo Bus)

Nexview

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Increase your networking opportunities at IBF’s Orlando conference by joining us at our very popular 1-hour Round Robin, Round-Table Discussion session. Take this opportunity to bring up the most challenging questions facing your team, share your own war stories from the fi eld and hear and share best practices. Choose up to 3 of 5 timely and practical topics provided for your professional enhancement. These sessions will add new dimensions to the services you provide your customers, and increase your contact base in the demand planning & forecasting community. All experience levels are invited and welcome. Plus, get a head start networking right before IBF’s Cocktail Reception!

Round Robin Topics Include:

• New Product Forecasting & Planning

• Scenario Planning & Forecasting

• Improving Forecasting & Planning with Consumption / Point of Sale (POS) and Syndicated Data

• Communication and Gaining Buy-in for your Forecasts & Plans

• Collaboration Within and Outside the Organization: Why & How?

CONFERENCE HOTEL FORECASTING & PLANNING ROUND ROBIN, ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSIONS

8

19 Searching For the Truth: Demand Planning

All demand planners are all searching for something. It could be

a better forecast, a better process, a better… This presentation

is not about textbook responses, but focus’ on problem solving

methods. Forecasting is about problem resolution, not fi nding the

best forecasting algorithm. This presentation explores different

perspectives to utilize when evaluating your forecasts and your

forecasting process. The evaluation process will help you identify

the truth that will increase your companies’ competitive edge.

You will learn:

• How to evaluate your forecast accuracy

• How to use forecast error review to improve your forecasting process

• How to communicate your forecast probability to the rest of the company

Scott RoyCollaboration Planning Manager

Well’s Dairy, Inc.

20 How Forecast Accuracy Impacts Inventory CostsForecasting is an important factor in controlling inventory levels. Learning to control the forecast accuracy and the associated variables helps companies to maintain inventory at appropriate levels. Understanding all of the variables within the supply chain is another essential element of this process. Without understanding all the components of the supply chain and their relationships inventory levels are sure to be insuffi cient or infl ated. Navistar has recently implemented a new system to better track forecast accuracy and some of the associated variables as well as leverage the opportunity to work closer with fulfi llment teams to drive collaborative inventory management within the organization.

You will learn:• How to recognize variables associated with forecast accuracy

for inventory levels• Developing a collaborative environment within the organization• Challenges of implementing a new system

Joseph Motta, Forecast Analyst

Mark Graham, Forecast ManagerNavistar Parts Group

Included

With Your

Conference

Registration

Disney’s’ Contemporary Resort Orlando Florida, USARESERVATIONS: 415.398.1234CUTOFF DATE: SEPT 30, 2010

We have set up a special discounted

rate of $195 / night (available for

standard room only) at the Disney’s’

Contemporary Resort. In order to

receive the discounted rate, please

mention the Institute of Business

Forecasting & Planning – IBF Event

when reserving your room by

September 30, 2010. Rooms

are limited, so act fast!

9

Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting | Best Practices Conference w

/ Advanced S&

OP Forum

| To Register, please call: 516 504 7576 or visit: ww

w.ibf.org/1010.cfm

9

SUNDAY | OCTOBER 24

12:00 pm – 1:30 pm FORUM REGISTRATION

1:30 pm – 5:00 pm ADVANCED PRACTICES IN S&OP FORUM

5:00 pm – 7:00 pm EARLY CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

MONDAY | OCTOBER 25

7:30 am – 8:30 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS & REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS

8:30 am –11:30 am I Next Gen S&OP—Key Building Blocks for Success Gregory L. Schlegel, CPIM, CSP VP Business Development SherTrack LLC Jeff Metersky, Vice President, Supply Chain Strategy Practice CHAINalytics LLC

II How to Align Sales & Operations Planning with Strategic Intent Mike Wilson, Global S&OP Manager Syngenta AG Andy Coldrick, Founder Ling-Coldrick.com Rick Ling, President Demand Technologies, Inc.

III Building Visibility and Transparency in the Demand Planning Process

Thomas Savage, Forecast Analyst Donald Mitchell, Director, Corporate Forecasting Dorman products

8:30 am – 4:30 pm STATISTICAL FORECASTING & PLANNING TUTORIALFred M. Andres, PresidentPhredTek, Inc. | Logistics Consulting Service

11:45 am – 12:30 pm LUNCH | CHAIRPERSONS WELCOME

12:30 pm – 1:30 pm KEYNOTE | The CPFR-S&OP ContinuumNikhil Sagar, Vice President, Retail Inventory ManagementOffi ceMax Incorporated

1:30 pm–2:30 pm 1 Using Exception Management to Improve Demand Planning & Execution Alan L. Milliken, CPF Business Education Manager BASF Corporation

2 How to Meet Demand Planning Challenges in a Global Company Mike Kelleher, Chief Forecaster – North America Hollister, Inc.

3 How Home Depot Synchronized their Supply Chain with Consumer Demand Nadim Zoberi Corporate Continuous Improvement Manager The Toro Company

2:30 pm–2:45 pm BREAK | Visit with Exhibitors

2:45 pm–3:45 pm 4 Addressing the Next Generation of Forecasting Requirements Jay Nearnberg, CPFSr. Director, Collaborative Planning/Process Mgt. Pfi zer Consumer Healthcare

5 Conducting Effective Monthly Consensus Meetings Gail Merritt, Demand Planner BIC Consumer Products

6 The Lean Demand Forecasting Process – Really! Janice Gullo, CPF, Lean Supply Chain Master Blackbelt DuPont

4:00 pm–5:00 pm ROUND ROBIN ROUND–TABLE DISCUSSION

5:30 pm–6:30 pm IBF COCKTAIL RECEPTION

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 26

8:00 am–9:00 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS

9:00 am–10:00 am 7 Business Model Innovation Spurs Supply Chain Improvement Michael R. Levely Global Process & Operations Manager Xiameter / Dow Corning

8 How to Revitalize Your S&OP Process Eric Tinker, Principal Nexview Consulting

9 Organization Design, Career Path Considerations for Sourcing, Retaining and Growing the Right Talent for Tomorrow’s Demand Planning and Forecasting Function

Girish Gulvady, Director of Demand Planning Campbell Soup Company

10:10 am–11:10 am 10 Developing the Baseline Forecasting Process Hiroyuki Takechi, CPF, Baseline Forecaster Microsoft

11 Driving S&OP Decision Making through Forecasting John Gallucci, Director of Demand & Supply Planning Nestle Infant Nutrition

12 “Perfect” Forecasting Metrics for Imperfect Forecasts Jim Workman, Supply Chain Consultant Natalie Bolt Scheidler, Supply Chain Consultant Eli Lilly & Company

11:10 am–11:25 pm MORNING BREAK

11:25 pm–12:25 pm 13 Communications, Your Number One Forecasting Tool

Ed White, CPF, Supply Chain Specialist Bayer Canada Inc.

14 Improve Your Forecasts by Including Marketing’s’ View David Zatz, Marketing Forecast Planner Post Foods

15 DEMAND MANAGEMENT: A Key Link to an Effective S&OP Process Todd Dunn, Director of Supply Chain & Procurement Accucaps Industries Limited

12:25 pm–1:25 pm LUNCH | CHAIRPERSON’S CLOSING REMARKS

1:25 pm–2:25 pm 16 Market Intelligence and the Budget Forecasting Process Dian Chu, Market Intelligence Specialist Marathon Oil Corp

17 Fostering Great Demand Planning & Forecasting Talent Jason Breault, Managing Director TopGrading Solutions

18 Calculating the Return On Investment for Supply Chain Improvements Chad Long, Business Intelligence Branch Chief Chengbin Zhu, Principle Logistics Engineer U.S. Coast Guard Aviation Logistics Center

2:35 pm–3:35 pm 19 Searching For the Truth: Demand Planning Scott Roy, Collaboration Planning Manager Well’s Dairy, Inc.

20 How Forecast Accuracy Impacts Inventory Costs Joseph Motta, Forecast Analyst Mark Graham, Forecast Manager Navistar Parts Group

CONFERENCE CONCLUDES

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 27 | EXAM DAY 8:30 am – 4:30 pm | IBF Certification Day | CPF & ACPF GOOD LUCK!

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13 Communications, Your Number One Forecasting ToolDo you know what the demand for your product is going to be? Probably not and given normal forecast accuracy, certainly not very far out into the future. There are a number of tools available to improve a forecast; S&OP, analytics and enough programs to sink a super-computer. What is the most important thing you can add to your forecasting toolbox? The ability be understood by communicating clearly and concisely. In this session, we will share thoughts on what we mean by communications, how to improve your communications skills and why this is critically important.

You will learn:• Why clear and complete communications are important to the

forecasting process• Communications as a two way process , listening is a

communication skill• How you can improve your communications skills to gain buy-

in for your forecasts

Ed White, CPFSupply Chain SpecialistBayer Canada Inc.

14 Improve Your Forecasts By Including Marketing’s View In a typical S&OP process, representatives from each function bring a different view of the business and contribution to reaching a single consensus fi nished goods forecast. This presentation explores some of the thought processes, tools and point of view used by marketing to forecast demand in a branded consumer products company. Additionally, learn to understand how marketing’s view differs from sales view and the supply chain forecasters. Join us to look at some of the techniques used by marketing to quantify the impact the forecast has on changes in advertising, promotions, pricing and customer penetration.

You will learn:• The role marketing plays in developing a comprehensive

“From creating a simple demand plan, to developing a complex and robust S&OP process IBF serves as a great

resource for any size company ” James Gregorio, Executive Director Demand Planning,

SONY PICTURES HOME ENTERTAINMENT

10 Developing the Baseline Forecasting ProcessWe all know that baseline forecasts can provide the unbiased input to the forecast decision-making process. However, defi ning the baseline forecast and how it benefi ts the organization can be a challenge. This presentation shares lessons learned and insights on the baseline forecasting processes and approaches that we have found effective at Microsoft. We will explain exactly how to capture a baseline and use it to build useful information for more accurate forecasts now and in the future.

You will learn:• The defi nition of baseline forecasts• Useful approaches for effective baseline forecasting• The challenges to establishing the baseline forecast

Hiroyuki Takechi, CPFBaseline Forecaster Microsoft

11 Driving S&OP Decision Making through Forecasting S&OP is anchored on cross-functional alignment, and it begins with an accurate, unbiased, and mutually supported, consensus demand plan. S&OP process leaders must identify the potential obstacles that can prevent this result, and act quickly to ensure “win-win” results that enable the balancing of demand and supply, and the attainment of business objectives. The approach outlined in this session provides insights on generating process credibility through optimized decision making, and value generation across functions.

You will learn:• Why S&OP Processes sometimes fail• How to handle disagreements within the consensus demand

planning process with a “win-win” outcome• How S&OP scenario planning can effectively mitigate risks

John GallucciDirector of Demand & Supply PlanningNestle Infant Nutrition

To Be

Determined

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Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting | Best Practices Conference w

/ Advanced S&

OP Forum

| To Register, please call: 516 504 7576 or visit: ww

w.ibf.org/1010.cfm

forecast • Some of the levers, tools and techniques used by marketing to

generate a forecast • How to partner with marketing and reach a consensus and

maximize performance

David ZatzMarketing Forecast PlannerPost Foods

15 DEMAND MANAGEMENT: A Key Link to an Effective S&OP ProcessDemand management is the fi rst step in the monthly S&OP process and the success of the demand review meeting is critical to gain the full benefi t of the overall S&OP process. The metrics, participants, inputs and outputs and the facilitation of the demand management process must be continuously monitored to maintain the necessary focus and achieve the meeting and process expectations. This presentation provides an overview of experiences and improvements over the past 7 years, highlighting demand managements contributions to an effective overall S&OP process.

You will learn:• Key meeting participants and how to address their interests• Identify and apply lessons learned for continuous improvement• How to respond to and resolve challenges faced in Demand

Management.

Todd DunnDirector of Supply Chain & ProcurementAccucaps Industries Limited

16 Market Intelligence and the Budget Forecasting ProcessMarket Intelligence (MI) has come into forefront in supply chain management due to the volatility of commodity prices brought upon primarily by the rapid growth of emerging economies, i.e. “the China Factor”. MI represents intelligence on the external forces impacting corporations, while Business Intelligence (BI) tells the story of internal drivers. It is essential for companies to develop a framework incorporating BI & MI to achieve a competitive strategic edge. This presentation will also give a brief overview of an example that BI & MI together as part of budget forecast process using a modifi ed Delphi Technique.

You will learn:• How MI, BI and supply chain management drive a

corporations’ competitive edge• Critical success factors and necessary tools for implementation• An overview of the modifi ed Delphi Technique

Dian ChuMarket Intelligence SpecialistMarathon Oil Corp

17 Fostering Great Demand Planning & Forecasting TalentWhile most companies would like to forget the recession, it actually has done wonders for the stability of the planning profession. With cash being king, executives realize that a strong cash position starts with a solid forecast. Employers are still hiring forecasters, leaving them largely unaffected by the devastating unemployment many sectors are reeling from. The downside is that solid demand planning talent is becoming more diffi cult to fi nd. Now that the economy is turning in the positive direction, come learn what leading organizations are doing to attract and retain their talent.

You will learn:• How the hiring environment has changed and how that

impacts your team• Those things that motivate your team – you’ll be surprised• How to leverage the power of networking to build

your team’s brand

Jason BreaultManaging DirectorTopGrading Solutions

18 Calculating the Return On Investment for Supply Chain ImprovementsIn 2007, the Coast Guard purchased a supply chain management tool to help manage the aviation spare part inventory. Since the Coast Guard does not fi t the usual business model, standard Return On Investment (ROI) metrics did not apply, and could not be easily modifi ed to accurately refl ect inventory value. A robust investment metric that included the Coast Guards specifi c needs was called for. The metric needed to include inventory decisions that are evaluated independently each fi scal year, exclusion of yearly initial inventory levels and no long term decision making. This presentation will discuss how we calculated our nontraditional ROI metric.

You will learn:• How to calculate supply chain ROI in an organization

that does not sell its inventory• Learn the process of creating and calculating a

nontraditional ROI • How the Coast Guard’s aviation unit manages its supply chain

Chad LongBusiness Intelligence Branch Chief

Chengbin ZhuPrinciple Logistics EngineerU.S. Coast Guard Aviation Logistics Center

19 Searching For the Truth: Demand PlanningAll demand planners are all searching for something. It could be a better forecast, a better process, a better… This presentation is not about textbook responses, but focus’ on problem solving

407.824.3869

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Increase your networking opportunities at IBF’s Orlando conference by joining us at our very popular 1-hour Round Robin, Round-Table Discussion session. Take this opportunity to bring up the most challenging questions facing your team, share your own war stories from the fi eld and hear and share best practices. Choose up to 3 of 5 timely and practical topics provided for your professional enhancement. These sessions will add new dimensions to the services you provide your customers, and increase your contact base in the demand planning & forecasting community. All experience levels are invited and welcome. Plus, get a head start networking right before IBF’s Cocktail Reception!

Round Robin Topics Include: • New Product Forecasting & Planning

• Scenario Planning & Forecasting

• Improving Forecasting & Planning with Consumption / Point of Sale (POS) and Syndicated Data

• Communication and Gaining Buy-in for your Forecasts & Plans

• Collaboration Within and Outside the Organization: Why & How?

CONFERENCE HOTEL FORECASTING & PLANNING ROUND ROBIN, ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSIONS

8

methods. Forecasting is about problem resolution, not fi nding the best forecasting algorithm. This presentation explores different perspectives to utilize when evaluating your forecasts and your forecasting process. The evaluation process will help you identify the truth that will increase your companies’ competitive edge.

You will learn:• How to evaluate your forecast accuracy• How to use forecast error review to improve your forecasting

process• How to communicate your forecast probability to the rest of

the company

Scott RoyCollaboration Planning ManagerWell’s Dairy, Inc.

20 How Forecast Accuracy Impacts Inventory CostsForecasting is an important factor in controlling inventory levels. Learning to control the forecast accuracy and the associated variables helps companies to maintain inventory at appropriate levels. Understanding all of the variables within the supply chain is another essential element of this process. Without understanding all the components of the supply chain and their relationships inventory levels are sure to be insuffi cient or infl ated. Navistar has recently implemented a new system to better track forecast accuracy and some of the associated variables as well as leverage the opportunity to work closer with fulfi llment teams to drive collaborative inventory management within the organization.

You will learn:• How to recognize variables associated with forecast accuracy

for inventory levels

• Developing a collaborative environment within the organization• Challenges of implementing a new system

Joseph MottaForecast Analyst

Mark GrahamForecast ManagerNavistar Parts Group

21 Mergers & Acquisitions—Can Two Demand Planning Process Models Coexist?Even in this economy, companies continue to grow through acquisition. Along with growth, acquisition presents many challenges, including choosing the correct demand planning process. This presentation explores the challenges facing Teva Pharmaceuticals, a global decentralized organization, in choosing a robust, appropriate, demand planning process for the entire company. Learn how Teva examined both models and questioned whether two process models, both seemingly sound and correct, can be integrated into the same organization. Join us while we examine the process, offer criteria to assess each process model and derive a solution that will promote success in the current market.

You will learn: • How to compare/contrast demand planning processes• How to evaluate the right process model for your operating

market• How Teva proposes to resolve the challenges that come from

inheriting two demand planning processes from acquisition

Jeremy JosmanDemand Planning Manager – Global Supply Chain StrategyTeva Pharmaceuticals

Included

With Your

Conference

Registration

Disney’s’ Contemporary Resort Orlando Florida, USARESERVATIONS: 415.398.1234CUTOFF DATE: SEPT 30, 2010

We have set up a special discounted

rate of $195 / night (available for

standard room only) at the Disney’s’

Contemporary Resort. In order to

receive the discounted rate, please

mention the Institute of Business

Forecasting & Planning – IBF Event

when reserving your room by

September 30, 2010. Rooms are

limited, so act fast!

9

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/ Advanced S&

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9

SUNDAY | OCTOBER 24

12:00 pm – 1:30 pm FORUM REGISTRATION

1:30 pm – 5:00 pm ADVANCED PRACTICES IN S&OP FORUM

5:00 pm – 7:00 pm EARLY CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

MONDAY | OCTOBER 25

7:30 am – 8:30 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS & REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS

8:30 am –11:30 am I Next Gen S&OP—Key Building Blocks for Success Gregory L. Schlegel, CPIM, CSP VP Business Development SherTrack LLC Jeff Metersky, Vice President, Supply Chain Strategy Practice CHAINalytics LLC

II How to Align Sales & Operations Planning with Strategic Intent Mike Wilson, Global S&OP Manager Syngenta AG Andy Coldrick, Founder Ling-Coldrick.com Rick Ling, President Demand Technologies, Inc.

III Building Visibility and Transparency in the Demand Planning Process

Thomas Savage, Forecast Analyst Donald Mitchell, Director, Corporate Forecasting Dorman products

8:30 am – 4:30 pm STATISTICAL FORECASTING & PLANNING TUTORIALFred M. Andres, PresidentPhredTek, Inc. | Logistics Consulting Service

11:45 am – 12:30 pm LUNCH | CHAIRPERSONS WELCOME

12:30 pm – 1:30 pm KEYNOTE | The CPFR-S&OP ContinuumNikhil Sagar, Vice President, Retail Inventory ManagementOffi ceMax Incorporated

1:30 pm–2:30 pm 1 Using Exception Management to Improve Demand Planning & Execution Alan L. Milliken, CPF Business Education Manager BASF Corporation

2 How to Meet Demand Planning Challenges in a Global Company Mike Kelleher, Chief Forecaster – North America Hollister, Inc.

3 How Home Depot Synchronized their Supply Chain with Consumer Demand Nadim Zoberi Corporate Continuous Improvement Manager The Toro Company

2:30 pm–2:45 pm BREAK | Visit with Exhibitors

2:45 pm–3:45 pm 4 Addressing the Next Generation of Forecasting Requirements Jay Nearnberg, CPFSr. Director, Collaborative Planning/Process Mgt. Pfi zer Consumer Healthcare

5 Conducting Effective Monthly Consensus Meetings Gail Merritt, Demand Planner BIC Consumer Products

6 The Lean Demand Forecasting Process – Really! Janice Gullo, CPF, Lean Supply Chain Master Blackbelt DuPont

4:00 pm–5:00 pm ROUND ROBIN ROUND–TABLE DISCUSSION

5:30 pm–6:30 pm IBF COCKTAIL RECEPTION

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 26

8:00 am–9:00 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS

9:00 am–10:00 am 7 Business Model Innovation Spurs Supply Chain Improvement Michael R. Levely Global Process & Operations Manager Xiameter / Dow Corning

8 How to Revitalize Your S&OP Process Eric Tinker, Principal Nexview Consulting

9 “Perfect” Forecasting Metrics for Imperfect Forecasts Jim Workman, Supply Chain Consultant Natalie Bolt Scheidler, Supply Chain Consultant Eli Lilly & Company

10:10 am–11:10 am 10 Developing the Baseline Forecasting Process Hiroyuki Takechi, CPF, Baseline Forecaster Microsoft

11 Driving S&OP Decision Making through Forecasting John Gallucci, Director of Demand & Supply Planning Nestle Infant Nutrition

12

11:10 am–11:25 pm MORNING BREAK

11:25 pm–12:25 pm 13 Communications, Your Number One Forecasting Tool

Ed White, CPF, Supply Chain Specialist Bayer Canada Inc.

14 Improve Your Forecasts by Including Marketing’s’ View David Zatz, Marketing Forecast Planner Post Foods

15 DEMAND MANAGEMENT: A Key Link to an Effective S&OP Process Todd Dunn, Director of Supply Chain & Procurement Accucaps Industries Limited

12:25 pm–1:25 pm LUNCH | CHAIRPERSON’S CLOSING REMARKS

1:25 pm–2:25 pm 16 Market Intelligence and the Budget Forecasting Process Dian Chu, Market Intelligence Specialist Marathon Oil Corp

17 Fostering Great Demand Planning & Forecasting Talent Jason Breault, Managing Director TopGrading Solutions

18 Calculating the Return On Investment for Supply Chain Improvements Chad Long, Business Intelligence Branch Chief Chengbin Zhu, Principle Logistics Engineer U.S. Coast Guard Aviation Logistics Center

2:35 pm–3:35 pm 19 Searching For the Truth: Demand Planning Scott Roy, Collaboration Planning Manager Well’s Dairy, Inc.

20 How Forecast Accuracy Impacts Inventory Costs Joseph Motta, Forecast Analyst Mark Graham, Forecast Manager Navistar Parts Group

21 Mergers & Acquisitions—Can Two Demand Planning Process Models Coexist? Jeremy Josman, Demand Planning Manager – Global Supply Chain Strategy Teva Pharmaceuticals

CONFERENCE CONCLUDES

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 27 | EXAM DAY 8:30 am – 4:30 pm | IBF Certification Day | CPF & ACPF GOOD LUCK!

To Be

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CONFERENCE FEES EARLY BIRD

THROUGH SEPT 10REGULAR PRICING

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Payment: Payment in full is required 15

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Unless payment is received by that day, your

registration will be canceled.

Cancellations: Registrant may cancel

without penalty up to 15 days prior to the

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and receive a full refund. All cancellations

must be submitted in writing. Cancellations

received less than 15 days prior to scheduled

conference & forum are subject to a

$195 (USD) service charge. No refunds will

be given for cancellations made on the date

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The Institute of Business Forecasting

& Planning – IBF, reserves the right to

substitute, eliminate, and/or reschedule

speakers if necessary.

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Please circle which Exam(s) you are interested in taking 1 2 3 4 5

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SUPPLY CHAIN PLANNING & FORECASTING: BEST PRACTICES CONFERENCEw / A DVA N C E D S & O P F O R U M

Planning

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Supply Chain

Disney’s Contemporary Resort, Orlando, FL | October 24-26, 2010