Creating a Supply-chain Methodology for Freight Forecasting in Wisconsin

Creating a Supply-Chain Methodology for FreightForecasting in WisconsinOctober 21, 2013

Jennifer MurrayTraffic Forecasting Section Chief Wisconsin Department of Transportation

1TRB SHRP2 Symposium: Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement1Multimodal Freight Fusion Forecasting ModelCreate a statewide freight forecasting framework that integrates travel demand modeling with freight analysis tools, provides performance metrics and analyzes alternative strategies to move freight.22Objectives for Multimodal Freight Fusion Forecasting ModelUse forecasting model day-to-dayImplement national best-practicesVisualize the data in one placeAlign transportation investment with needsBuild forward thinking and credibilitywith stakeholders33

4WISCONSINChicagoTwin CitiesLake SuperiorLake MichiganMississippi River

45Wisconsin Freight Facilities

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Governors Freight Industry SummitFreight Mobility Action AgendaTransportation Finance & Policy CommissionConnections 2030: Wisconsins Long-range Transportation PlanStakeholder MeetingsFreight Industry Partners

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Top Commodity Profiles - Economic DriversTonnageValueEconomic ImportanceFlowsForecastsCommodity TonsModeTransportation issues associated with each commodity

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Draft Highway Freight Factors on Southeast State Trunk Highways8Traffic segments assigned draft highway Freight Factor scores89

Draft Highway Freight Factor Scores

9Continued Partnerships10

10Multimodal Freight Fusion Forecasting ModelFreight supply-chain forecasting tool based on traditional statewide 4-step modelEconomics of moving freightBusiness production locations, product types, availability and general business development timeframesSystem performance measures

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11Data Improvements NeededVehicle classification count dataData disaggregation investigationCommodity informationShipping costsCommodity weightsFreight supply-chainIntermodal terminal supply-chain dataNew business dataDiesel fuel consumption dataNon-highway modes12

1213Permanent Count Stations (ATRs)Continuous Weight-in-MotionContinuous ClassContinuous Length

Portable Count StationsShort-term Length

Miscellaneous CountsManual

Centralized ProcessingData AnalysisData Collection Standards FHWA/WisDOT StandardsBinningData CollectionTraffic Forecast/ProjectionVehicle-Miles of Travel

ModelingMeta ManagerTravel Demand ModelMicrosimulation

Identified Project NeedBudgetCapacity AnalysisAccountabilityExpertise in Review and Development of ProductsSufficient Truck CountsStandard WisDOT Approach StatewideData-Driven Concept for FreightFusion Forecasting and Modeling (as represented by Vehicle Classification Count Data)Data Refinement / Improvement13Freight Forecasting with Fusion ConceptConcept continuing to evolve use the data, contribute to the data PLUG-INFlexibility and tailored to needsAir quality modelingMechanistic Empirical Pavement Design software inputsOversize, over-weight vehiclesMultimodal aspect provides insightsSurvey businesses for data

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15Web-based Interactive Corridor Mapping Application15Fusion Model RoleAnalysisTransportation project planning and programmingMAP-21 opportunitiesLast-mile connectionsPartneringGood stewardship16

16Schematic Business Plan for Fusion Concept17

Outline long-range goals, expectationsSpecific uses for the modelGuidelines for development, technology, transportation modes, tool and data updatesBudgetPerformance measuresImplementation - the everyday17Thank You!

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