Sun-Solar System Connection

Sun-Solar System Connection

Strategic Roadmap Committee #10

Interim Status Report

April 21, 2005

NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap

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Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the

• Sun and its effects on

• Earth,

• the solar system,

• the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and

• demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems

Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap: Knowledge for Exploration


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External and Internal Factors

• We are poised to provide knowledge and predictive understanding of the system

• Our technological society needs space weather knowledge to function efficiently

• Human beings require space weather predictions to work safely and productively in space


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Nature of the Challenge

Integration and synthesis of multi-point observations

Data assimilative models & theory

Interdisciplinary communities and tools

A quantitative, predictive understanding of a complex “system of systems”

Microphysical processes regulate global & interplanetary structures

Multi-constituent plasmasand complex photochemistry

Non-linear dynamic responses

http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/NewZoom2.mov


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Disturbed Upper Atmosphere

Space Storms at the Outer Planets

Solar System Blast Wave

Disturbed Mars-Space & Atmospheric Loss

Dangerous Radiation

Space Storms at Earth

We Have Already Begun!

Current Sun-Earth missions provide a prototype “Great Observatory”, providing a first look at the system level view and informing the roadmap plan

Theory, modeling, and observational tools now exist or can be developed to yield both transformational knowledge of the Sun-Earth system and provide needed tools and space weather knowledge for human exploration and societal needs


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Approach to Identify Priority Science Targets

Science that transforms knowledge

Science enabling

Exploration

Science enabled by Exploration

Priority Sun-Solar System

Connection Science

Understand

ExploreD

isco

ver

Science that is Vital, Compelling & Urgent

• Predictive capability for safe and productive exploration requires full understanding of a complex system of disparate systems

• Priority goals enable significant progress in three essential areas: Understanding, Exploration, and Discovery

• For example, discovery of near-Sun processes by Solar Probe provides transformational knowledge of the source of space weather enabling explorers to work safely and productively beyond Earth's magnetic shield


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Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction

Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space

Safeguard Our Outward Journey

Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other

planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium

Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected

by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields

Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to

predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space

Sun-Solar System Connection ObjectivesAgency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental

conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems


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2) Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles throughout the solar system

1) Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms

3) Understand how nonlinear interactions transfer energy and momentum within planetary upper atmospheres.

4) Determine how solar, stellar, and planetary magnetic dynamos are created and why they vary.

Open the Frontier to Space Weather Prediction


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1) Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment

2) Understand changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects

3) Understand the Sun's role as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, particularly the role of solar variability in driving climate change

4) Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability

Understand the Nature of our Home in Space


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1) Characterize the variability and extremes of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers

2) Develop the capability to predict the origin of solar activity and disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather.

3) Develop the capability to predict the acceleration and propagation of energetic particles in order to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers

4) Understand how space weather affects planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities.

Safeguard our Outward Journey


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Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Goal Structure

Phase 1: 2005-2015 Phase 2: 2015-2025 Phase 3: 2025-beyond

• Measure magnetic reconnection at the Sun and Earth

• Determine the dominant processes of particle acceleration

• Set the critical scales over which cross- scale coupling occurs

• Understand how solar disturbances propagate to Earth

• Determine quantitative drivers of the geospace environment

• Identify the impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere

• Describe how space plasmas and planetary atmospheres interact

• Determine extremes of the vari-able radiation and space environ-ments at Earth, Moon, & Mars

• Nowcast solar and space weather and forecast “All-Clear” periods for space explorers near Earth

• Model the magnetic processes that drive space weather

• Quantify particle acceleration for the key regions of exploration

• Identify precursors of important solar disturbances and predict the Earth’s response

• Integrate solar variability effects into Earth climate models

• Determine the habitability of solar system bodies

• Characterize the near-Sun source region of the space environment

• Reliably forecast space weather for the Earth-Moon system; make first space weather nowcasts at Mars

• Determine Mars atmospheric variability relevant to aerocapture, entry, descent, landing, surface navigation and communications

• Predict solar magnetic activity and energy release

• Predict high energy particle flux throughout the solar system.

• Understand the coupling of disparate astrophysical systems

• Continuously forecast conditions throughout the heliosphere

• Predict climate change*• Determine how the habitability

evolves in time• Image activity on other stars

• Provide situational awareness of the space environment throughout the inner Solar System

• Reliably predict atmospheric and radiation environment at Mars to ensure safe surface operations

• Analyze the first direct samples of the interstellar medium

• Develop technologies, observations, and knowledge systems that support operational systems



Safeguard our Outward Journey

Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems


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Detailed Requirements Flow Down

Requirement -flowdowns developed for each anticipated outcome. Prioritization of targeted outcomes informs final prioritization of program

elements and mission concepts. Access current set of these flow diagrams at http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/flowdiagrams.html

• U.S. mandate for Sun-Solar System Connection science and exploration determined research focus areas

• Vision for Space Exploration led to scheduling of targeted outcomes

• Each targeted outcome traced to required understanding and to focused, prioritized enabling capabilities and measurements

• Missions, groups of missions, research, theory, and modeling program elements, are derived from capabilities and measurement requirements

• Consolidation of priority outcomes show that many program elements contribute to multiple achievements and focus areas

• Missions singly and together contribute unique and vital data to understand the system of systems

• Mission studies at GSFC and JPL, including assessment of feasibility and maturity, categorized into cost classes:

– Explorer (< $250M), strategic ($250M-$500M), large strategic ($500M-$1B), flagship (>$1B)

Illustration of requirements flow-down


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Program Implementation

• The plan is designed to be robust - sufficiently flexible to facilitate adjustments as new knowledge is acquired, new discoveries are made, and transformational technologies are developed

• A spiral development (“learn as you go”) approach is used providing key decision points between spirals

• The spirals can be related to similar program elements of the Exploration Initiatives, with Spiral (n-1) for SSSC informing spiral (n) for human exploration. Thus, for example, accomplishments of SSSC Spiral 2 will inform human exploration Spiral 3

• First spiral is already underway, utilizing current program assets and near-term launches

• Subsequent spirals are focused on developing the new knowledge base, new understanding, and the new predictive capability that will enable safe and productive exploration activities


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Joint Sun-Earth ScienceJoint Sun-Earth Science

2005 2015 2025 2035

Model SystemsModel

SystemsCharacterizeEnvironmentsCharacterizeEnvironments

ForecastHazardsForecastHazards

From Goals to Implementation

Magnetic reconnection

Measure near-Sun space environment

Sample interstellar medium

Impacts of solar variability on Earth & Mars

Particle acceleration processes

Drivers of cis-lunar space

weather

Physical models of important space weather processes

Inner heliosphere radiation & space weather forecasts

Atmospheric response to

external drivers

Predict solar, heliospheric & stellar activity

Drivers of climate and habitability

Forecast space weather for society & explorers

Crew Exploration VehicleRobotic Lunar Exploration

Human/Robotic Lunar Surface

Exploration

Extended Human Operations on Lunar Surface

Human Exploration in the

Vicinity of Mars

Human Exploration of Mars

Exp

lora

tion

Sys

tem

s T

ime

line

Space Weather Impacts on System Design

Local Space Weather Forecasts for Operations

Reliable Predictions for all Uses of Space

Informs Lunar Exploration Informs Mars Exploration Mars Space Weather Operations Informs Lunar Exploration Informs Mars Exploration Mars Space Weather Operations

Spiral Phase 1Sun-Earth-Moon System

Characterization of System



Spiral Phase 2Sun - Terrestrial Planets

Modeling of System Elements



Spiral Phase 3Sun-Solar System

System Forecasting


System Forecasting


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Mission Planning

2005 2015 2025 2035









Model SystemsModel

SystemsCharacterizeEnvironmentsCharacterizeEnvironments

ForecastHazardsForecastHazards


System Forecasting


System Forecasting

Solar: SDO, Solar-B

CMEs & Heliosphere: STEREO, Sentinels

Radiation:: RBSP, Sentinels

Geospace Impacts: THEMIS, MMS, RBSP, ITSP

Climate Impacts:: SDO, AIM

Moon, Mars Awareness:: LRO, MSL, ITSP

Interstellar Boundary: IBEX

Inner Boundary:: Solar Probe

:

Solar System Space Weather:

DBC, SEPP, SIRA, SWBuoys

Mars Space Weather: Mars-GOES

Planetary Orbiters: JPO, NO, VAP

Interstellar Medium: Interstellar Probe

Habitability:Stellar Imager

Final mission recommendations for Phases 2 and 3 to be determined during the May 10-13 Roadmap Meetings. This assignment of missions by phase is driven primarily by resource availability. Benefits of progressive space weather capability may be realized earlier through acceleration of phased mission queue.

Already In Develop-ment or FormulationExplorerPartnershipRecommended

Solar Processes: MTRAP, RAM, Solar Orbiter, SPI

Heliospheric Structure & Disturbances:

Doppler, HIGO, Telemachus

Geospace System Impacts: AMS, GEC, GEMINI, ITMW, MagCon, T-ITMC

Climate Impacts: JANUS, SECEP

Mars Atmosphere: Mars Aeronomy, Mars Dynamics

Space Weather Stations: Heliostorm, L1 Diamond, SHIELDS

Future Mission Candidates


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Sun-Solar System Connection Summary

Users of SSSC science information

NASA & partner producers of SSSC science information

New Knowledge

Safe and Productive Space Operations

Future Scientists & Engineers

Achievements

ImpactsImplementation InvestigationsGoals

Decision Support Tools

Science Questions

Space Weather Mitigation



Safeguard our outbound Journey

Phase 1: Magnetic reconnection Particle acceleration

processes Drivers of cis-lunar space

weather Impacts of solar variability

on Earth and Mars

Phase 2: Physical models of important

space weather processes Inner heliosphere radiation &

space weather forecasts Atmospheric response to

external drivers Measure near-Sun space

environment

Phase 3: Predict solar, heliospheric &

stellar activity Drivers of climate and

habitability Sample Interstellar medium Forecast space weather for

society and explorers

Sample vast range with frequent small observatories

Utilize low-cost extended missions to gain solar system scale understanding - Great Observatory “sensor web”

Disseminate data for environmental modeling via distributed Virtual Observatories

Strategic missions planned for critical scientific exploration and for space weather understanding

Select low-cost Explorer opportunity missions for fast response as knowledge changes

Phase 1

Phase 1 missions:

-Solar: SDO, Solar-B-CMEs & Helio: STEREO, Sentinels

-Radiation: RBSP, Sentinels-Geospace Impact: MMS, THEMIS, RBSP, ITSP

-Earth Impacts: SDO, AIM-Moon, Mars Awareness: LRO, MSL, ITSP

-Interstellar Boundary: IBEX-Inner Boundary: Solar Probe

Phase 3 Missions:

-Solar System Space Weather -Mars space weather-Venus, Jupiter, Neptune orbiters

-Interstellar sample return-Stellar cycles

Phase 2 Missions:

-Solar magnetic processes-Impacts to geospace system-Mars atmosphere-Heliospheric structure & disturbances

Already In Develop-ment or FormulationExplorerPartnershipRecommended


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Near-Term Priorities and Gaps

1. Exploit the existing Sun-Solar System Great Observatory in service of space weather research

2. Take the next development step for the Sun-Solar System Connection Great Observatory:

– Integrate LWS Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm Probes (ITSP or ITM) into the Great Observatory to discover the science enabling the creation of space weather models at Earth. This science and these models will form the foundation upon which the Mars space environment and its evolution, including the Martian atmosphere, will be understood.

– Fly LWS Solar Probe through the Sun's atmosphere to explore inner boundary of our system and directly sample the source region of the solar wind and solar energetic particles for the first time

– Deploy LWS Solar Sentinels to discover the heliospheric initiation, propagation and solar connection of those energetic phenomena that adversely affect space exploration and life and society here on Earth

IT Storm Probes

Solar Probe

Sentinels


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Human Capital and Infrastructure

Science Investigations:• Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP)• Living with a Star (LWS)• Explorer Program• Discovery Program• Sun-Solar System Great Observatory

Research Programs:• Research and Analysis Grants• Guest Investigator• Theory Program• Targeted Research & Technology• Project Columbia

Enabling Capabilities:Sounding Rocket/Balloon ProgramAdvanced Technology ProgramEducation and Public Outreach

So that we may develop/maintain U.S. space plasma and space weather prediction / mitigation expertise, it is vital to provide a broad range of competed funding opportunities for the scientific

community

Develop IT, Computing, Modeling and Analysis Infrastructure• Virtual Observatories

Low Cost Access to Space• Science, Training, & Instrument Development

E/PO to Attract Workers to Earth-Sun Systems Science

Maintain Multiple Hardware & Modeling Groups• Strengthen University Involvement in Space Hardware Development• Facilitate and Exploit Partnerships• Interagency and International

Upgrade DSN to Collect More Data Throughout the Solar System


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External PartnershipsPartnership Forums:• International Living with a Star• International Heliophysical Year• Enabling Space Weather Predictions for the

International Space Environment Service• National Space Weather Program

Future Partnership Missions:•Solar Orbiter (ESA)

National Partners:•National Science Foundation•National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration•NOAA Space Environment Center•Department of Commerce• Department of Defense•Department of Transportation•Department of Energy•Department of the Interior

Current Partnership Missions:•Ulysses (ESA)•SoHO (ESA)•Cluster (ESA)•Geotail (JAXA)•Solar-B (JAXA)


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Technology Development• Answering science questions requires measurements at unique

vantage points in and outside the solar system– Cost-effective, high-∆V propulsion and deep space power

– CRM-1: High energy power & propulsion—nuclear electric propulsion, RTGs– CRM-2: In-space transportation—solar sails– CRM-15: Nanotechnology—carbon nanotube membranes for sails

• Resolving space-time ambiguities requires simultaneous in-situ measurements (constellations or sensor webs)

– Compact, affordable spacecraft via low-power electronics— CRM-3: Advanced telescopes & observatories

– Low-cost access to space– CRM-10: Transformational spaceport

• Return of large data sets from throughout the solar system– Next-generation, Deep Space Network

– CRM-5: Communication and Navigation

• Visualization, analysis and modeling of plasma data– CRM-13: Advanced modeling/simulation/analysis

• New measurement techniques – compact, instrumentation suites– Next generation of Sun-Solar System instrumentation

– CRM-11: Scientific instruments & sensors– CRM-15: Nanotechnology


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Education and Public Outreach is Essential to the Achievement of the Exploration Vision – Emphasis on workforce development – Requires increase in the capacity of our nation’s education systems (K-16)– Entrain under-represented communities in STEM careers (demographic projections to 2025 underscore this need)

Roadmap committee #10 has focused on:– Close up look at role national science education standards play in effectively connecting NASA content to formal education– Importance of E/PO to achievement of Exploration Vision– Identification of unique E/PO opportunities– Articulation of challenges and recommendations for effective E/PO

Education and Public Outreach

Living With a Star Study the Sun to learn about stars Role of Solar variability in Earth’s climate

Space Weather for Earth & Exploration

Analogy with terrestrial weather/climate Conditions changing all the time Need for situational awareness Protecting space explorers

Magnetism

Invisible force: “seeing the invisible” Magnetism vs gravity; significance of magnetism in Solar System and Universe Magnetic shields and planetary habitability Electromagnetic Spectrum

Plasma State of matter depends on location

Propulsion Solar sails for space travel

Tools, technology, scientific methods

Suborbital rockets -it really is rocket science Suborbital rockets - opportunity to "go to space" Large, high-resolution data sets, powerful images Modeling, visualization, simulation key to science

Engaging the Public

Eclipses, Transits, Auroras Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar storms

Unique E/PO opportunities associated with SSSC science


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Sun-Solar System Connections

Mars Exploration

Lunar Exploration

Exploration Transportation

Space Shuttle

Space Station

SRM2

SRM1

SRM5

SRM6

SRM7

Integration: Human and Robotic Flight

Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields

• Space environment specification for materials and technology requirements definition.

• Prediction of solar activity and its impact on planetary and interplanetary environments as an operational element of Exploration. Examples:

presence of penetrating radiation (hazardous to health and microcircuitry);

varying ionization/scintillations (interferes with communications and navigation);

increased atmospheric scale heights (enhanced frictional drag).

contributes receives


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Mars Exploration

Lunar Exploration

Solar System Exploration

Exploration of the Universe

Earth System and Dynamics

• Mars Aeronomy and Ionosphere

• Atmospheric Loss; Habitability

• Electrostatics & Charging Processes

• Sun/Climate Connection• Societal impacts of space weather

processes

• The Sun as a magnetic variable Star• Fundamental plasma processes

• History of the Solar Wind

• Platforms for investigations of com-parative magnetospheres/ionospheres; exploration of heliosphere and interstellar medium

SRM2

SRM1

SRM3

SRM9

SRM8

Integration: Science

Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields



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High Energy Power & Propulsion

In-Space Transportation

Advanced Telescopes and Observatories

Human Planetary Landing Systems

Robotic Access to Planetary Surfaces

Communication and Navigation

Human Health and Support System

Human Exploration Systems & Mobility

Integration: Major Capability Relationships #1

CRM2

CRM3

CRM4

CRM5

CRM6

CRM7

CRM8

CRM9


• High energy power and propulsion to reach unique vantage points and operate there;

• Development of in-space propulsion such as provided by solar sails;

• Space interferometry in UV, and compact affordable platforms for clusters & constellations

• Now-casting and fore-casting of space weather

• Characterization, modeling, and prediction of planetary environments;


• Characterization, modeling, and prediction of space environments;


• High band width deep space communication



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Autonomous Systems & Robotics

Transformation Spaceport/Range

Scientific Instruments & Sensors

Systems Engineering Cost/Risk Analysis

Advanced Modeling/Simulation /Analysis

In-Situ Resource Utilization

Nanotechnology


CRM10

CRM11

CRM12

CRM13

CRM14

CRM15

CRM16


• contributes expertise & experience in techniques for space resource detection and location

• sensor web technology; affordable operations for constellations

• low-cost space access via rockets, secondary payload accommodation, and low cost launchers;

• an array of new technologies that enable affordable synoptic observation program;

• advanced data assimilation from diverse sources and advanced model/simulation techniques for space weather prediction;

• best practices required across the board;

• advanced carbon membranes for solar sails; cross cutting technology beneficial to many missions;


Documents

Sun-Solar System Connection