Study to examine the socio-
economic impact of
Copernicus in the EU
Report on The socio-economic impact of the
Copernicus programme
Written by PwC October - 2016
European Commission
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs
DG GROW Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs
I.3 Unit Space Data for Societal Challenges and Growth
Contact: Thibaud Delourme
E-mail: [email protected]
European Commission
B-1049 Brussels
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Study to examine the socio-
economic impact of Copernicus in the EU
Report on The socio-economic impact of the
Copernicus programme
Final report The socio-economic impacts of the Copernicus programme
i
LEGAL NOTICE This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2016 ISBN number 978-92-79-59010-8 doi:number 10.2873/733800 European Union, 2016 Data provided in this report are the property of their rightful owners. Further data reuse is not permitted without the express authorisation of the data owner.
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Report Socio-economic impacts of space activities in the EU in 2015 and beyond
ii
Executive summary
This report presents an assessment of the overall economic impact derived from public spending on
the Copernicus programme. The report compiles the results from two other reports:
Strategy&, 2015. Study to examine the GDP impact of space activities in the EU. Final
Report Prepared by Strategy& for the European Commission. September, 2015.
This study focused on the GDP impact of EC & ESA spending on the Copernicus Space
component over the period 2008 2013.
PwC Strategy&, 2016. Study to examine the socio-economic impact of Copernicus in
the EU. Final Report Prepared by PwC Strategy& for the European Commission. July,
2016.
This study focused on the socio-economic impacts of freely available and open Copernicus
data & products in Europe. The project analysed the use of Copernicus data along eight
sector value chains: agriculture, ocean monitoring, insurance, O&G, renewable energies,
urban monitoring, air quality monitoring and forestry.
The economic assessment was performed using two different approaches. The economic benefits
derived from public investment in the Space & Services components of the Copernicus programme
were assessed using a GDP impact methodology. The GDP impact or transactional economic impact
is the first impact to fully materialize after the initial investment. GDP impact mostly includes the
impact of space manufacturing activities on the local or regional industrial sectors. However, this
assessment does not include the actual use of infrastructure, i.e. the usage of Copernicus data &
products available for free. The complexity of the economic linkages and imapcts arising from the
use of Copernicus data & products justifies the use of a micro-diffusion model to understand at the
level of the firm how the data & products are used and how they are creating specific knowledge
that leads to sales increases or cost reductions. Wider methodologies such as the GDP impact
assessment methodology are not able to capture the complexity of this type of phenomenon and
assess accurately such economic impact.
The overall economic impact of the Copernicus programme was estimated using two different
scenarios: a conservative scenario and an optimistic one.
The conservative scenario is more prudent and robust than the optimistic one; it relies only on
the results of the eight value chain case studies and uses lower-bound estimates of impacts.
The scenario offers a very conservative result on the catalytic impact derived from the availability of
free and open Copernicus data & products. The assessment has led to the estimation of ex-post
enabled revenues of EUR 38.3 M (2015) and ex-ante cumulative enabled revenues of EUR 445.1 M
(2016 2020).
The optimistic scenario is derived from the overall size of the markets under scrutiny, optimistic
growth rates (CAGR), and optimistic adoption rates for end-users, together with GIS revenues
for Europe. The assessment has led to the estimation of ex-post enabled revenues of EUR 342.7 M
(2015) and ex-ante cumulative enabled revenues of EUR 2 792.9 M (2016 2020).
Figure 1 summarises together all the monetary impacts transactional and catalytic impacts derived
from public investment (EC & ESA) in the Copernicus programme. In some cases, the initial
investment in the space programme varies considerably between years, and so to, therefore, do some
estimated impacts. Other impacts materialise at a date later than the initial investment. Consequently,
it is more informative to look at results for the period as a whole rather than for individual years,
distinguishing only between 2014 and 2021 and the period before it.
Report Socio-economic impacts of space activities in the EU in 2015 and beyond
iii
Figure 1 Overall monetary impact1 of EC & ESA investment in the Copernicus programme,
based on eight selected value chains (Source: Strategy& - PwC analysis)
As stated earlier, the enabled revenues derived from the use of Copernicus products are only based
on eight very specific value-chains and do not include the overall enabled revenues for all the
potential sectorial use of Copernicus in Europe. Furthermore, all the non-monetary benefits that are
generated by the Copernicus programme are not included in this assessment. In the case of the
enabled revenues for the downstream market and end-users, two scenarios were derived to represent
the variance in the use and the acceptance of Copernicus products among the EO downstream and
GIS markets, and among end-users.
The overall cumulative GVA and enabled revenues generated by the Copernicus programme (Space
& Services components and downstream usage of Copernicus products & data) from its beginning
and 2021 have been estimated on the basis of the following two scenarios:
Conservative scenario: EUR 10 766.0 M;
Optimistic scenario: EUR 13 418.2 M.
In both cases, EUR 4 405.04 M was generated before 2014.
1 The category Before 2013 illustrates the cumulative benefits from the beginning of the Copernicus programme up to 2013. The category 2014-2021 illustrates the cumulative benefits from 2014 to 2021 but it does not include the
benefits from the previous category.
Final report EEE Non-dependence
Table of contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... II
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ - 1 -
Objectives and scope of the study ....................................................................... - 1 -
THE COPERNICUS PROGRAMME .................................................................................. - 2 -
Programme description ...................................................................................... - 2 -
Programme structure ..................................................................................... - 3 -
Programme funding and financial overview ........................................................... - 4 -
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY ......................................................... - 6 -
Introduction ...................................................................................................... - 6 -
GDP Impact Assessment Methodology .................................................................. - 8 -
What is GDP Impact? ................................................................................... - 8 -
GDP Impact Assessment Methodology ...................................................... - 10 -
Baseline Single Tier modelling approach description ............................ - 12 -
Available data for test case modelling ........................................................ - 14 -
Space Supply Chain Modelling - Black box model evolution ................... - 16 -
Micro-diffusion model ....................................................................................... - 18 -
The original BETA methodology ............................................................... - 18 -
The adaptation of BETA methodology to the context of the enabled
revenues by the availability of Copernicus data & products ........ - 21 -
SUMMARY OF THE PREVIOUS STUDI
