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Steelhead Viability: Where are we now and where are we going?. Paul McElhany NOAA Fisherie Northwest Fisheries Science Center. Talk Outline. Recent NOAA Status Review General Conclusions Big Issues Next Steps TRT Viability Criteria Purpose of criteria General Structure - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Steelhead Viability: Where are we now and where are we going?
Paul McElhany
NOAA Fisherie
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Talk Outline
• Recent NOAA Status Review– General Conclusions– Big Issues– Next Steps
• TRT Viability Criteria– Purpose of criteria– General Structure– Preliminary Targets
• TRT Population Evaluations
Biological Review Team
• Reviewed status of all listed species in 2003
• Relied on available data
Winter Steelhead Populations in LCR
Summer Steelhead Populations in LCR
Population Statistics in BRT Review
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Ab
un
da
nc
e
Total Spawners Natural Origin Spawners
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Brood Year
Ab
un
da
nc
e
Pre-Harvest Recruits Spawners
Coweeman
Kalama
Sandy
WindSF Toutle
NF Toutle
Clackamas
Washougal
0.77
0.82
0.87
0.92
0.97
1.02
1.07
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Recent Mean Natural Origin Spawners
Gro
wth
Ra
te (l
)
Run Population
Years for Trend
Prob. Trend <1
Prob. l < 1
Hatchery = 0
Hatchery = Wild
Winter
Coweeman 1990-2002 0.822 0.851 0.995
South Fork Toutle 1990-2002 0.919 0.797 0.812
North Fork Toutle 1990-2002 0.026 0.135 0.135
Kalama 1990-2002 0.463 0.593 0.846
Clackamas 1990-2001 0.929 0.849 0.929
Sandy 1990-2001 0.999 0.991 1.000
Summer
Kalama 1990-2003 0.991 0.849 1.000
Washougal 1990-2003 0.249 0.349 0.757
Wind 1990-2003 0.659 0.538 0.989
Big Issue #1: Hatcheries
• Interim Policy: ESU’s must be naturally self sustaining
• Identified relation of hatchery stocks to ESUs
rela
tion
ship
to n
atur
al p
opul
atio
n
Substantial naturalorigin fish inbroodstock andminimaldivergence
Moderate to fewnatural origin fishin broodstock andno more thanmoderatedivergence *
substantialdivergence **
Source of hatchery stock and status of local population
source fromlocal, nativenaturalpopulation
source non-local butwithin ESU, nativelocal naturalpopulation exists
source non-local butwithin ESU, no nativelocal natural population
source non-local andpredominantly from outside ofESU
1a
2a
3a
2c
3b
1b
2b
3c
4
* moderate divergence = no more than observed between similar populations within ESU** substantial divergence = comparable to divergence observed within entire ESU*** extreme divergence = greater than divergence observed within ESU or substantial artificial selection or manipulation
NA
extreme divergence***
4 4 4 4
Hatchery Stock Categories
Key Point About Hatcheries->
Hatchery fish may be part of ESU ----
but they do not positively affect the natural self-sustainability of the ESU
Big Issue #2: Anadromous-Resident Interactions
• ESU Question – three categories– Sympatric = in ESU– Historically Allopatric = out of ESU– Recently Allopatric (i.e. Above Dams) = unknown
• Risk Question– Big Uncertainty– Anadromy essential life-history component for
long-term ESU viability
Big Issue #3: Recent High Returns
• How do recent high returns affect risk evaluation?
• What happens next time marine survivals decline?
• Long-term predictions in marine survival?
Next Steps in ESA Listing
• Policy consideration of recovery measures
• Public announcement of proposed listing this month
Technical Recovery Team Tasks
• Identify populations
• Inform recovery goals (viability criteria)
• Identify limiting factors
• Determine impact of potential recovery actions
Useful Figure?
Extinct
Current Status
Viable (delisting)
“Broad SenseRecovery”
Historic
ESA Delisting Criteria
• No longer threatened or endangered
• “Measurable and objective”
• Must relate to listed unit (e.g. ESU)
• Not necessarily the flip side of listing criteria
• Includes biological metrics of fish performance AND evaluation of threats
• Part science– part policy
Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP)
• Partition ESU into demographically independent populations
• Evaluate viability of individual populations– Abundance– Productivity– Spatial structure– Diversity
• Determine how many and which populations need to be in what status
How many and which populations?
• Catastrophic Risk
• Metapopulation Processes
• Evolutionary Processes
WLC-TRTViability Criteria
Framework
ESU Criteria
Strata Criteria
Population Persistence Probability
Population Attributes•Productivity and Abundance
•Diversity
•Habitat
•Spatial Structure
LCR Steelhead Strata
Summer Winter
Cascade 4 14
Gorge 2 3
Life History
Ecological
Zone
Within strata- How many and which populations?
• The recovery unit should have a enough populations with sufficiently high viability levels that the unit will persist.
• The populations restored/maintained at viable status should be selected to:– Allow normative metapopulation processes (include
“core” populations). – Allow normative evolutionary processes (include
“genetic legacy” populations) – Minimize susceptibility to catastrophic events.
Population Persistence Categories
Persistence Category
Description
0Very high extinction risk; extirpated
1 High extinction risk
2 Moderate extinction risk
3Low extinction risk over 100 years; VSP
4 Very low extinction risk
Strata rule set
• At least two viable populations (>= level 3)
• Average population persistence score >=2.25
Results in viability criteria proportional to historical population numbers
Current Status
0
1
2
3
4
Cowee
man
Wint
er
Lower
Cow
litz W
inter
S.F. T
outle
Wint
er
N.F. T
outle
Wint
er
Tilton
Wint
er
Upper
Cow
litz W
inter
Cispus
Wint
er
Kalam
a W
inter
N.F. L
ewis
Wint
er
E.F. L
ewis
Wint
er
Salmon
Cre
ek W
inter
Was
houg
al W
inter
Clacka
mas
Wint
er
Sandy
Wint
er
Lower
Gor
ge W
inter
Upper
Gor
ge W
inter
Hood
Wint
er
Kalam
a Sum
mer
N.F. L
ewis
Summ
er
E.F. L
ewis
Summ
er
Was
houg
al Sum
mer
Wind
Sum
mer
Hood
Summ
er
Population
Per
sist
ence
Cat
ego
ry
1.061.21 1.26
1.16
Example Viable ESU
0
1
2
3
4
Cowee
man
Wint
er
Lower
Cow
litz W
inter
S.F. T
outle
Wint
er
N.F. T
outle
Wint
er
Tilton
Wint
er
Upper
Cow
litz W
inter
Cispus
Wint
er
Kalam
a W
inter
N.F. L
ewis
Wint
er
E.F. L
ewis
Wint
er
Salmon
Cre
ek W
inter
Was
houg
al W
inter
Clacka
mas
Wint
er
Sandy
Wint
er
Lower
Gor
ge W
inter
Upper
Gor
ge W
inter
Hood
Wint
er
Kalam
a Sum
mer
N.F. L
ewis
Summ
er
E.F. L
ewis
Summ
er
Was
houg
al Sum
mer
Wind
Sum
mer
Hood
Summ
er
Population
Per
sist
ence
Cat
ego
ry
2.292.33 2.25
3.00
North Santiam Steelhead Attribute Persistence Probabilities
05
10152025303540
Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
Persistence Category
Cer
tain
ty P
oint
s
05
10152025303540
Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
Persistence Category
Cer
tain
ty P
oint
s
05
10152025303540
Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
Persistence Category
Cer
tain
ty P
oint
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
Persitence Category
Cer
tain
ty P
oint
s
Abundance and Productivity Diversity
Habitat Spatial Structure
Conclusions
• BRT recognizes many ESUs still at risk
• Viability criteria in development
• Identifying recovery plan actions…