STATISTICA REPORT 2019 5

5STATISTICAL REPORT 2019

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CH. 5 - BALANCE AT WORK: IN, OUT, CHANGEThe world of work involves various types of balance. The primary types of balance include: the balance be-tween supply and demand, where wages are the mechanism that regulates the market; the balance between training and the professionalism sought by companies; and the balance between retired persons and workers, particularly in the light of an ageing population. As far as the first type of balance is concerned, the questions we try to answer in the chapter are: firstly, those from a demand point of view, i.e., for example, what are the needs of Veneto companies, what type of workers and skills are they looking for and, secondly, from a supply point of view, who are the people looking for, or rather, offering work, what experience do they have, what job would they like etc...? The analysis of the balance between the educational system and the world of work is closely linked. Companies in the Veneto region state that they have difficulties in finding certain professional figures due to both a scarcity of candidates and their poor preparation. However, in addition to this, there is also the presence of a good proportion of over-qualified workers on the labour market, who have a higher qualification than that required to carry out their job: in Veneto about one in four workers is over-qualified. Finally, the last part of the chapter deals with the issue of an ageing population, which puts the sustainability of the pension system in a critical position, due to the contribution burden of an active population which will become increasingly weak compared to the growing number of old-age pensioners. As early as 2017, there was already a clear problem in maintaining the working capacity of the country and our region at a constant level: in the Veneto region, the elderly workforce potential outnumbered young people entering the market by 43 units. It should be noted, however, that in Veneto the pension system is more sustainable: for 100 employ-

Le aziende cercano:28% Professioni qualificate nei servizi e nel commercio17% Professioni non qualificate16% Artigiani e operai specializzati

I disoccupati svolgevano:30% Professioni qualificate nei servizi e nel commercio 18% Professioni non qualificate15% Artigiani e operai specializzati

Entrare

Cambiare Uscire

Le aziende non trovano laureati in:

64% Ingegneria elettronica e dell'informazione55% Ingegneria industriale55% Lingue, traduttori, interpreti

I giovani si laureano in:15% Economia e statistica13% Lingue11% Ingegneria

Occupati 15-24enni-33% dal 2005 al 2018

Ogni 100 occupati si contano:61 pensionati nel 2016

Ogni 100 occupati 15-24enni si contano: 97 occupati 55-64enni nel 2005

344 occupati 55-64enni nel 2018

Occupati 55-64enni+135% dal 2005 al 2018

5BALANCE AT WORK:IN, OUT, CHANGE

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ees there are 61 pensioners, the fourth lowest rate among the Italian regions. The world of work is one that involves various types of balance. In this chapter we aim to analyse some of the principal balances: the balance between sup-ply and demand, between the education system and the world of work and between the pension system (and pensioners) and workers in the light of an ageing population.Clearly, there are many other types of balance that could be studied in the labour market, particularly work-life balance and gender equality in employ-ment.

5.1 Labour as a market of supply and demand. In the free market, equilibrium is reached when the demand for a good meets the supply, i.e. when the quantity requested at a certain price is equal to the supply for that same price. In a situation of equilib-rium, all the people who wish to purchase a given good or service at a particular price are satisfied. The world of work is no different: it is a market in which workers represent supply (by offering their labour on the market) and businesses represent demand (by asking for labour on the market). Again, market balance is achieved when demand meets supply and wages should be the mechanism that regulates the market: if there is an excess of supply, i.e. too many workers, wages should be lowered and if, on the contrary, there are fewer workers, wages should be raised. In this theoretical model, involuntary un-employment should not exist because the market should automatically absorb this oversupply. It is clear that the reality is different from this theo-retical model, but the mechanism behind it remains valid: even in our daily lives, labour supply and de-mand interact constantly, people look for work that allows them to meet their needs and companies demand workers to achieve their missions. In this paragraph, we will try to examine these two forces at play.

From a demand perspective: businessesWhat are the needs of businesses in Veneto? What sort of workers are they looking for? What type of skills? What difficulties do they encounter?According to data from Unioncamere - Excelsior Information System, in 2017, businesses predicted around 403,000 entries. In 28% of cases they are

employed in qualified professions in commercial activities and services, followed by unskilled profes-sions (17%), craftsmen, specialised manual workers and agricultural workers (16%) and plant operators and operators of fixed and mobile machinery (15%). Above all, businesses require workers who have already acquired experience in the profession and in the sector, albeit with considerable differences. Managers and intellectual professionals are more often required to have experience (more than 80% of cases compared to an average of 62%), as are technical professionals, craftsmen and specialised workers (73-74%). For unqualified office workers and professions, experience is less sought after. For 35 of every 100 new entrants, under 29 year-olds are the preferred recruits, but this figure rises and exceeds 40% for office workers, commercial and service professions and for technical profes-sions. For more qualified professions (managers and specialists), the presence of over 29 year olds is required, going hand-in-hand with the requirement of prior experience. The requirement of experience and the presence of young people frequently con-tradict each other: generally, a young person does not have great work experience and an experienced worker is not so young. An employer can therefore opt for a young person who can be taught a pro-fession and who will probably be paid less, or they can opt for a worker with more experience, who will need little training but who will have a higher salary. This choice by businesses can be dangerous for young people who struggle to enter the market or who only find intermittent jobs that do not allow them to grow professionally. These young people risk becoming adults without developing skills and knowledge, thus they belong to neither of the two categories required by companies: they are neither young,nor do they have the required experience, they are non-professional adults.As far as education is concerned, only 9% of the entries involve the recruitment of graduates, while 36% require a high school diploma. Compared to other Italian regions, in Veneto degrees seem to be less expendable: in Lombardy, for example, the share of graduates required by companies is double at almost 18%. This is partly due to the diversity of the social and economic fabric, which is character-ised by small and medium-sized companies in Vene-to: it is enough to consider that 24% of employees in Lombardy are executives and highly specialised professionals (30% if we take the province of Milan alone), while in Veneto they reach just 15%.


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Conversely, some figures are easier to select and hire. For example, among the intellectual, scientific and highly specialised professions, only 9% of spe-cialists in the legal sciences are hard to find, while among the executive professions in office work, the most available are the counter operators and tellers. Other easily identifiable figures are farmers and spe-cialised agricultural workers, industrial packaging machine operators, operators of fixed machinery for the food industry.For businesses looking for staff, the most important skills that candidates must possess in addition to those specific to the profession, are flexibility and adaptation, the ability to work in a team and the ability to work independently, although the level required decreases with decreasing profession-alism: for example, the ability to solve problems is important for 88% of management candidates, while it drops to 52% for office workers and 20% for non-specialised manual workers. Digital skills, which are important for 21% of candidates, are an impor-

A peculiar characteristic of the Veneto region is the demand for foreign workers: 16% of new recruits are immigrants, the highest value among all the Italian regions. For some professional figures, the search for person-nel is difficult, both because of a lack of candidates and because of their inadequate skills and qualifi-cations; the professional macro-categories hardest

to recruit for are intellectual and technical profes-sions, craftsmen

and specialised manual workers. In detail, in 58% of cases, engineers are hard to find, followed by IT, telematic and telecommunications technicians (57%), technicians in the management of produc-tion processes of goods and services (55%), crafts-men and manual workers specialising in textiles and clothing (55%) and specialists in mathematics, infor-mation technology, chemistry, physics and natural sciences (54%).

Technicians, craftsmen, skilled manual workers harder to recruit

Fig. 5.1.1 - Recruitment forecast for 2017 by profession, demand for young people under 29 and difficulty in finding them. Veneto

Source: Processing of data from ISTAT and Unioncamere - ANPAL, Excelsior Information System, 2017 by the Regione Veneto Statistical Office

•Professioni qualificate nelle

attività commerciali e

nei servizi

112.870

•Professioni non qualificate

68.680

•Artigiani, operai specializzati e

agricoltori

64.170

•Conduttori di impianti e operai di

macchinari fissi e mobili

60.130

•Professioni tecniche

43.430

•Professioni esecutive nel lavoro d'ufficio

37.490

•Professioni intellettuali

15.720

•Dirigenti

450

Presenza di under 29 Di difficile reperimento


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people who had a job and, after losing it, are active-ly looking for a new job; 29% are looking for work after a period of inactivity, while 19% are looking for their first job. About one third of the unemployed are under 30, while more than half are in the middle age group of 30-54 years. About one in ten is over 54 years old. As far as education is concerned, 43% have at most a lower secondary school qualification, 44% a high school diploma and the remaining 13% a university degree. It is also interesting to look at the family situation of the unemployed, because among the personal reasons for accepting or not accepting a job offer, family is certainly an important element. 38% live at home with their parents, which is consistent with the fact that about one in three unemployed people is under 30 years of age. A further third, approximate-ly, are in a couple with children, while the remainder are couples without children and single people. Finally, the last social and demographic character-istic considered is nationality: it appears that about 23% of unemployed people are foreigners.Before continuing with the analysis, it is worth cross-checking the information on labour supply and demand. In the previous paragraph, we looked at the expected entries for companies in 2017; as far as age is concerned, new recruits seem to be in line with those seeking work: among those hired, 36% are under the age of 30, while among the unem-ployed this value is 34%. On the other hand, an im-

balance can be observed when looking at edu-cation and na-tionality. Among those looking for

work, 43% have at most a lower secondary school certificate but companies seem unable to absorb this workforce since the expected recruitment for this level of education is just 28%. The same applies to immigrants: among the unemployed, 23% are foreigners, but business recruitment estimates stop at 16%. In other words, for those with low qualifi-cations and for immigrants, the search for work is more complicated, as companies seem to employ fewer people than those in these categories who are unemployed. According to Istat data, the unem-ployment rate is 6.3% in the Veneto region, while among immigrants it rises to 12% and 9% among those who have not continued their studies beyond lower secondary school.

tant element especially for the intellectual (62%) and technical (54%) professions. An aptitude for energy saving is the most transversal competence, insofar as it is of average importance for all figures and var-ies from 47% for managers to 31% for unqualified professions.The difficulty of finding staff is a rather thorny issue that puts employers and jobseekers at odds, espe-cially when it comes to young people. On the one hand, in fact, we often hear that young people are lazy and spoiled, that they are big kids who are un-willing to make sacrifices, to endure long periods of training. On the other hand, perhaps companies ask a lot in terms of contractual flexibility, working hours, not exactly inviting wages, yet offer their em-ployees little in return. In recent years, there have been many reports of employers who have failed to find new recruits, showing that people, despite the crisis, are not willing to accept what the market has to offer. However, these reports conceal barely ac-ceptable working hours and conditions.The problem is, perhaps, due to a lack of Employer Branding. By this term, we mean a real marketing strategy through which a company seeks to recruit the best candidates, to beat the competition of oth-er businesses offering the same position and win the aspiring employee with the most talent. In order to do this, a company must first successfully communi-cate to candidates the characteristics that make that job unique, to make them understand that getting this job is an opportunity not to be missed. The com-pany can focus both on material aspects, such as pay, hours, benefits, but also on symbolic attributes, such as the perceived value and prestige of that job. All conditions being equal, a candidate will choose the most prestigious or established business.Therefore, for an employer, it is probably not enough just to throw a job offer into the digital cauldron, hoping that the need for work will lead to a deluge of applications, but instead it must promote the po-sition offered, as it would do with a new product being placed on the market.

From the supply perspective: peopleWho are the people who are looking or, rather, of-fering their work? What experience do they have? What type of job are they looking for?In Veneto, there were about 143,600 unemployed in 2017. Remember that an unemployed person is a person who is actively looking for work and who would be willing to accept it if it were offered. Of these, more than half are ex-employed (53%), i.e.

Harder for foreigners and people with a lower secondary school quali-fication to find work


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are unemployed in the technical professions, intel-lectual professions and among managers. Both in terms of demand and supply, therefore, the professions qualified in services and trade are the most dynamic, where there are more unemployed people but also more demand from businesses. These businesses have no difficulty in finding staff and, vice versa, unemployed people have no great difficulty in finding a new job. To confirm this, it is estimated that out of 100 people employed in this type of work, there are about 8 unemployed people (9 if we consider only sales staff and 11 only catering staff), compared to an average of 5 out of 100. How-ever, it takes an average of 11 months to find a job, compared to an overall average of 15 months for all sectors. In other words, there are certainly more unemployed people in the trade sector, but as they are very much in demand by businesses, they take less time to find a new job. Technical professionals, however, are among the hardest for businesses to find. This difficulty is part-ly motivated by the few unemployed people with these skills, since, out of 100 unemployed, only 9

Let us now consider only the unemployed who have already had a job before. Of these, 26% have been looking for work for less than four months, while more than a third have been looking for work for four to twelve months. A significant proportion have been looking for work for over a year and one in five unemployed have been seeking work for over two years. Before becoming unemployed, 12% worked in the trade sector, 25% in industry and about half in ser-vices (excluding trade). In detail, one in three unemployed people was in a qualified profession in services and trade. In par-ticular, 13% were restaurant owners or employees and 7% were sales employees. Then there are the

unskilled profes-sions (18% of the u n e m p l o y e d ) , craftsmen and

skilled manual workers (15%). The macro categories of plant operators, fixed and mobile machinery op-erators and vehicle drivers and executive profes-sions in office work reaches 14%. Even fewer people

Fig. 5.1.2 - Percentage distribution of the unemployed people according to certain social and per-sonal characteristics. Veneto - 2017

Source: Processing of Istat data by the Regione Veneto Statistical Office

Ex occupati53%

Ex inattivi29%

Primo lavoro19%

Fino licenza media 43%

Diploma44%

Laurea 13% Italiani

77%

Stranieri 23%

coppia con figli

33%

Giovani in casa con i genitori

38%

In coppiasenza figli 12%

15-29 anni34%

30-54 anni55%

>54 anni11%

Single 9%

More turn over in trade


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tract.were in a technical profession and, out of 100 em-ployed in this category, there are only 2 jobseek-ers (compared to 8 in trade and 10 in the unskilled professions). As a result, technical professionals take less time than the average to find a new job.As regards the nature of the job sought, the majority of unemployed people are prepared to accept both fixed-term and permanent jobs, part-time jobs and full-time jobs. Flexibility, however, increases over time: the longer a person remains unemployed, the more willing they are to take up temporary jobs and work fewer hours.

In particular, 32% would prefer a permanent con-tract but would also be willing to accept a fixed-term position, while 66% do not show any kind of preference. In fact, 98 out of 100 unemployed people would accept any contract. The question of working hours is more sensitive. About one in three unemployed people would like full time, but would also accept part time, while 53% have no prefer-ence. Conversely, 10% of jobseekers are willing to work only part-time and would refuse full time. It is interesting to note that the needs of an unem-ployed person are very different from those of an employed person looking for work: whilst the for-mer are very flexible in terms of contract, the latter are less inclined to forego a certain stability: about one in three employed people looking for a new job would only accept a permanent and full time con-

Fig. 5.1.3 - The previous job of unemployed people. Veneto - 2017

Source: Processing of Istat data by the Regione Veneto Statistical Office

< 4 mesi 26%

4-12 mesi 37%

13-24 mesi 17%

> 24 mesi 20%

••

•

•

•

Professioni qualificate nei servizi e nel commercio 30%

• Professioni non qualificate 18%

• Artigiani e operai specializzati 15%

• Servizi 51%

• Industria 25%

• Commercio 12%

Da quanto tempocerca lavoro?

Che professionesvolgeva prima?

In quale settorelavorava?

Fig. 5.1.4 - Type of work sought by unemployed and employed people. Veneto - Year 2017

Source: Processing of Istat data by the Regione Veneto Sta-tistical Office

Disoccupati

Solo tempo pieno -Solo part time 10%Senza preferenze 87%

Solo tempo indeterminato -Senza preferenze di contratto 98%

Occupati che cercano lavoro

Solo tempo pieno 33%Solo part time -Senza preferenze 59%

Solo tempo indeterminato 31%Senza preferenze di contratto 67%


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contacted acquaintances and trade unions in the last month to find work, 82% applied or sent CVs to private individuals, while 64% browsed online job adverts. The use of temporary employment agen-cies or job centres was more limited. In general, the majority of unemployed people have performed between three and six job-search actions, but the common denominator remains word-of-mouth and the direct sending of CVs to private individuals. Whereas Employer Branding is important for the company, Personal Branding is essential for the work-er. In this case as well, it involves a personal market-ing strategy through which a person describes his strengths - knowledge, skills, abilities - to create a sort of "personal brand", a self-image to communi-cate to a potential employer. In a social context like the one in which we live, it is not enough to create a good CV including all our training and work expe-rience. The footprints we leave go far beyond that and, before hiring a candidate, an employer has a wide range of social networks available for making checks on potential employees. That's why the web can become either a valid ally or a dangerous oppo-nent, depending on the content that each person decides to publish, the photos they post, articles they share and comments they make.

The balance between supply and demand for labourWhat action does a company take to recruit staff? And what actions does a jobseeker take?After having precisely defined the professional fig-ure that the company wants to recruit, it must decide on the best recruitment channel in order to identi-fy candidates as quickly as possible. In particular, it must decide on certain factors of time, quality and economics. For example, the timing of finding new staff changes radically from a vacancy that needs to be filled promptly to a position that is being add-ed with a view to growth. Much also depends on the figure required, that is, whether it is a gener-ic or specialised position and its availability on the labour market. Moreover, the choice of the recruit-ment channel is linked to the economic and human resources that a company can afford to invest.Having said that, there can be many channels. The most immediate and informal channel is word of

mouth, interper-sonal contacts and spontane-ous applications.

Then we move on to all services via the web, with the growth in recent years of websites where work-ers can enter their applications and employers can search for staff. Another important channel is the Public Job Centres and private employment ser-vices. Thanks to these services, businesses have a range of candidates at their disposal, pre-selected according to the required characteristics and whilst, until a few years ago, this channel was used only for the recruitment of low professional profiles, today it is also possible to recruit workers with more diverse profiles.In terms of employed people from Veneto, in 2017 29% declared that they had found their current job through relatives, friends and acquaintances, while 20% approached the employer directly. In addition to these, there are self-employed people who have started a business (15%) and state employees who successfully completed a competitive recruitment process (12%). Just under 1 in 10 workers were contacted by the employer and 6% were recruited following work experience such as internships, ap-prenticeships, temporary jobs. Less frequently em-ployees found work through public and private em-ployment services or responded to advertisements in newspapers or on the internet. Unemployed people also follow the same channels. Nine out of ten unemployed people said they had

Word of mouth: prima-ry channel in the job search

Ricerca di

lavoro

Si è rivolto a

conoscenti

Fatto domanda a privati

Esaminato offerte on

lineAgenzia

interinale

CPI

88%

82%

64%38%

34%

Fig. 5.1.5 - Job-search actions of the unemployed. Veneto - Year 2017



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improve their professional position. From a collec-tive point of view, an excess of qualified personnel can initiate a phase of technological development. On the other hand, permanent over-qualification, in which individuals and societies waste resources and knowledge, is quite different. In this section we will try to analyse the balance be-tween school and work, describing the educational pathways of young people and trying to understand which qualifications are most in demand from busi-nesses.

SchoolFirst of all, let's see what kind of pathways young people take during secondary school. 42% of the pupils in Veneto attend academic high school, 37% a technical college and the remaining 21% a pro-fessional college. However, the pathways vary a lot depending on gender. In detail, girls tend to-wards economic and technical colleges, scientific high schools or language high schools. For boys, on the other hand, their first choices are technical and technological colleges, scientific high schools and tertiary sector professional colleges. Among the technical courses most attended by boys, we find "Computer Science and Telecommunications", "Mechanics Mechatronics and Energy" and "Elec-tronics and Electrical Engineering". The increase in educational qualifications has led to an increase in high school enrolments and a con-sequent loss of professional courses. Young people are therefore more likely to choose a course of study that will give them the opportunity to go to univer-sity. However, the Veneto region has different dynamics from the rest of Italy. In fact, our region is character-ised by a low percentage of high school students, the lowest of all the regions: 42% compared to 60%

in Lazio, 55% in Umbria and Abruzzo (49% the national av-

erage). Conversely, we have the highest number of students enrolled in technical colleges: 37% in Veneto, 25% in Lazio, 27% in Umbria and Liguria (31% the national average).Other peculiar characteristics of Veneto can be seen by analysing the courses of study in detail, which in some way reflect our productive fabric. Among the professional courses in the field of services, "Ag-ricultural and rural development services" is more popular than in other regions; this course is aimed at

5.2 Educational qualifications at workAs we have seen in the previous paragraph, compa-nies state that they have difficulties in finding certain professional figures due to the lack of candidates and their poor experience. From this, an imbalance can emerge between the education system and the world of work, two entities that sometimes fail to communicate and follow a common direction. It is not always possible, however, to identify the causes and the culprits. Schools, for example, may not be attentive to the needs of businesses, forming too many people with a certain profile, neglecting oth-ers that become very hard to find. Businesses, on the other hand, do not always know how to or want to invest in human capital, forgetting that innova-tion and technological progress can improve com-petitiveness.A first effect of this imbalance is the presence of over-qualified workers on the labour market, who have a higher educational qualification than that re-quired to carry out the profession. In 2017, about one in four workers in Veneto was over-qualified (23.6%), a value very close to the national average (24.2%). Among the Italian regions, Veneto occu-pies an intermediate position, while Trentino Alto Adige and Sardinia have the lowest incidence of over-qualification (18-21%), and Umbria and Abru-zzo have the highest (30-32%). Over-qualification is a signal that something is not working in a country's production system. In the past, economic growth has led to an increase in ed-ucational qualifications because education became accessible even to population groups that had been excluded until then. This first phase of human capital development went hand-in-hand with technological development: more knowledge generated more development and more growth. Education was also valued from an economic point of view: the incomes of the most qualified people were higher than those of employees with lower educational qualifications. At present, the situation is more uncertain and this balance between human capital development and economic development seems a bit shaky. Meas-uring and evaluing over-qualification is not an easy task, because there are many things to consider. For example, over-education can be transitory: for an individual, it may be a temporary situation linked to the beginning of a working career in which ex-perience and knowledge are accumulated that will

Veneto region where academ-ic high school is least popular


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Among the three-year courses, the most popular degrees are "Modern Languages and Cultures", "Economics and Business Management " and "Healthcare, Nursing and Obstetrics". Among the Master's courses, there is another course in econom-ics, "Business Studies and Economics", followed by courses in "Psychology" and "Architecture and Architectural-Construction Engineering". Medicine and Law are the most popular single-cycle degrees.In recent years, the number of graduates from uni-versities in Veneto has followed a positive trend. In particular, there have been significant increases

in the last two years: from 2015 to 2016, the number of

graduates rose by 5%, from 2016 to 2017 by 4%. However, not all degree groups have followed this trend. In particular, from 2010 to 2017, languages grew by 41%, agriculture by 46% and medicine by 39%. Engineering also grew in popularity (+28%). Conversely, some degrees are gradually becoming less attractive: for example, literature degrees have

young people who intend to work in the field of ani-mal and crop farming and agri-business. Among the technical courses in the services sector, "Tourism" is the most popular course, training young people to work in tourism businesses and exploring aspects related to law, marketing, information technology and languages for the integrated and sustainable promotion of our artistic heritage. Finally, among the technical courses, young people in Veneto are more inclined than others to choose " Agriculture, agri-food and agi-industry" - which includes among others courses in "Viticulture and oenology" - and "Mechanics, mechatronics and energy".

UniversityAccording to data from the Ministry of Education and Research (MIUR), in 2017 about 23,500 students graduated from universities in Veneto: 62% com-pleted a three-year course of study, 31% a master's degree and the remaining 7% a single-cycle degree. The most popular university courses for young peo-ple are those in economics-statistics, languages and engineering.

Table 5.2.1 - Secondary school pupils by type of school, course and gender. Veneto - A.Y. 2017/2018

Source: Processing of MIUR data by the Regione Veneto Statistical Office

Course Male FemaleTotal

No. %

Professional college

IeFP (professional training) 1,324 316 1,640 0.8Industry and Crafts 8,490 2,195 10,685 5.2Services 14,012 16,261 30,273 14.7Of which: Food&wine and hotel hospitality 7,494 6,667 14,161 6.9Total 23,826 18,772 42,598 20.7

Technical college

Economics 12,928 21,717 34,645 16.8Of which: Administration, Finance and Marketing 10,103 12,673 22,776 11.1 Tourism 2,825 9,044 11,869 5.8Technology 34,592 6,664 41,256 20.0Of which: IT and telecommunications 7,931 483 8,414 4.1 Mechanical, Mechatronics, Energy 7,248 176 7,424 3.6Total 47,520 28,381 75,901 36.8

High School

Arts 3,147 7,422 10,569 5.1Classics 2,485 5,668 8,153 4.0Languages 2,689 13,177 15,866 7.7Music and Dance 439 596 1,035 0.5Sciences 21,712 15,905 37,617 18.3Human Sciences 2,844 11,432 14,276 6.9Total 33,316 54,200 87,516 42.5

Total pupils 104,662 101,353 206,015 100.0

Increasing number of graduates in languages, agriculture and medicine


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than others. As in the previous paragraph, Union-camere's Excelsior data help us to identify the most desirable qualifications for businesses.First of all, university degrees are required above all for managers and intellectual, scientific and highly specialised professionals: for the recruitment fore-seen for 2017 in Veneto, Unioncamere estimates that 65% of managers are required to have a degree, a figure that rises to 82% among highly specialised professionals. For the technical professions, both a degree (39%) and a diploma (49%) are required. For office workers, the most sought-after qualification is ta diploma (63%), while for qualified professionals in sales and services, there is a substantial balance be-tween diploma, professional qualification and com-pletion of compulsory education. Unskilled manual workers and other unskilled workers are required only to have finished compulsory education.Now we look at the fields of study. As we have al-ready seen, in 2017, 9% of the expected recruits by businesses in Veneto involve university graduates. The most sought-after degree is economics, for which over 10,000 graduates are expected to be hired. Then there is engineering, with about 7,400

seen graduates fall by 16% in seven years, as have degrees in architecture; political and social studies have also suffered heavy losses, even though there seems to have been a small recovery in the last two years.

Which educational qualifications offer the best opportunities?As already discussed in previous editions of the Statistical Report, educational qualifications have a significant impact on employment opportunities and lower the risk of unemployment. In 2017, the unemployment rate of 15-34 year olds in Veneto decreased as the person’s level of education in-creased: 20.5% for those with lower secondary ed-ucation, figure that is halved for those with upper secondary qualification, reaching 8.3% for those with further education qualifications. In terms of the national average, the situation has the same trend and the differences are even more visible.However, not all educational pathways are in equal demand by businesses: some are more popular

0 1.000 2.000 3.000

Educazione fisica

Chimico-farmaceutico

Giuridico

Scientifico

Agrario

Geo-biologico

Insegnamento

Architettura

Psicologico

Politico-sociale

Letterario

Medico

Ingegneria

Linguistico

Economico-statistico

Triennali Magistrali/Ciclo unico

Fig. 5.2.1 - Graduates of Veneto universities by group and type of degree - 2017

Source: Processing of MIUR data by the Regione Veneto Sta-tistical Office

100

141

80

100

120

140

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Linguistico

100

146

80

100

120

140

80

100

120

140

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Agrario

100

139

80

100

120

140

80

100

120

140

80

100

120

140

Medico

10084

Letterario

100 87

Architettura

100 106

Politico sociale

Fig. 5.2.2 - Graduates from Veneto universities by certain degree groups (base index numbers 2010=100) - 2010:2017

Source: Processing of MIUR data by the Regione Veneto Sta-tistical Office


11

marketing", "mechanics, mechatronics and energy" and "tourism, food&wine and hospitality". Once again, schools seem to be moving in the right di-rection, as the courses most popular among young people are also those most in demand by business-es. As proof of this, companies do not report low candidate numbers, even if they sometimes com-plain about their poor preparation. Finally, there is also a good alignment on the professional training front: catering and mechanical engineering are the areas most requested by businesses, food&wine services and maintenance/technical support are the areas most popular in school.

PhDs, added value poorly exploitedThe area in which there is a deep gap between the education system and the world of work is certain-ly tpost-graduate education and, in particular, PhD studies. According to the Conference of Italian Rectors (CRUI), in Italy "unlike in other countries, there is still a clear lack of appreciation for PhDs, insofar as they are not considered of sufficient 'added value' by businesses and, in general, even by public and pri-vate bodies, in personnel selection procedures. In addition, our industrial fabric of small and medium enterprises often does not offer substantial private investment in Research and Innovation, leading to the need for incentives and accompanying meas-ures for growth in competitiveness and demand for skilled labour. As far as the labour market is con-cerned, the academic setting has long been una-ble to absorb the number of university-trained PhD graduates. In Italy, over 12,000 graduates begin a PhD course every year with the aim of pursuing a successful academic career, but only 2,000 of them obtain a position at a university1. According to MIUR data, in 2016, there were 772 PhD graduates from universities in Veneto, 14% of whom are foreigners. Over the years, there have been increasing numbers of foreign students, a sign that universities in Veneto are becoming an increas-ingly attractive option internationally: in 2009 there were four foreigners for every 100 new PhD stu-dents, a value that has tripled in just a few years. On the other hand, analysing the Istat data from the sur-vey on the professional integration of PhD students, we can see that many young people from Veneto move abroad after graduating: in 2018 17% of PhD students who completed their doctorate in 2012

1 See CRUI - University-Business Observatory, Report 2016.

new recruits, in particular electronic/IT engineers and industrial engineers. This information is in line with the MIUR data, which shows that courses in Economics and Engineering are at the top of the list in terms of numbers of graduates. More than 2,000 people were hired, including graduates in teaching and training, healthcare/paramedics and chemis-try-pharmaceuticals. According to businesses, graduates in engineering, especially IT engineers, and graduates in languag-es are the hardest to find given the small number of candidates. The direction of the market is there-

fore obvious. On the one hand, businesses need qualified person-

nel in the field of Information and Communication Technology, able to support the company in this period of change and technological progress. On the other hand, the world of work requires a greater presence of professionals able to interact with in-ternational markets, characterised by different lan-guages and cultures, sometimes very distant from our own. Universities do not seem to be keeping pace with these changes, as the number of gradu-ates is lower than company expectations. However, young people seem to pick up these signals: lan-guage graduates, as well as those in engineering, have been increasing in numbers in recent years, a sign that the millennials and the young people of the new generation Z, who are entering the world of work, are ready to face these challenges: their hori-zon is increasingly broad, they are inclined to cross national borders and go international, they have grown up in the full Internet boom, accustomed to multitasking and the simultaneous use of different devices and they are increasingly interconnected. The direction taken by universities therefore seems correct, given that they are trying to fill the gap re-ported by businesses.There are certainly still some critical issues. All com-panies state that they struggle to find graduates in literature, philosophy, history and art, not so much because of a lack of candidates, but because of their inadequate preparation. This is where there is con-flict between universities and businesses: humani-ties graduates are in slow decline and their prepara-tion seems to be inadequate for the labour market.Further analysis shows that in 2017, 36% of expect-ed recruits will be required to have a high school di-ploma and further education qualification. The most requested areas are "administration, finance and

Businesses struggle to find engineers and graduates in languages


12

5.3 Pensions and generations, a precarious balanceItaly is getting older and Italians have few children. This is no small problem for balancing the public pension system. So much so that the pension re-forms implemented since the early 1990s have aimed at adapting the system to these changes. Few young people in work and too many elderly people retired. The contributions of the former will not be able to pay for the pensions of the latter, which are, among other things, more substantial be-cause the majority of them are calculated using a salary or mixed scheme.

and 2014 were living and working outside of Italy.As for the jobs performed by PhD students, in Italy, six years after graduating, 24.1% of PhD students are employed in university education, 17.3% in pub-lic administration and health and 17% in non-uni-versity education and training, while just over 9% of PhD students work in industry and agriculture. The proportion of PhD students employed in uni-versity facilities has fallen dramatically compared to the past: a sign that academic careers are becoming less and less accessible. Finally, according to Almalaurea data, one year after graduation many PhD students believe that post-graduate education is not useful to their job and that a PhD is not worthwhile. In particular, among the PhD students at Ca' Foscari, 46% declare that they use little or none of the knowledge acquired, a value that drops to 32% for PhD students at the Uni-versity of Verona. The most pessimistic evaluation of the degree acquired is found among PhD students at the IUAV University in Venice: 56% believe that a PhD is not required to perform their job but is more or less useful, while for 22% it is not even useful. Moreover, 14% of PhD students at the University of Padua consider their post-graduate degree to be hardly or not at all worthwhile.

Source: Processing of data from Consorzio Almalaurea by the Regione Veneto Statistical Office

Veneto universities Total Italian uni-versitiesPadua

VeniceCa' Foscari

IUAV Venice

Verona

Use of the skills acquired through a PhDSignificant 63.8 53.0 57.9 68.2 56.7Moderate 26.4 37.9 36.8 29.4 31.4Not at all 8.9 7.6 5.3 2.4 11.2

PhD required for jobRequired by law 29.6 18.0 5.6 24.1 20.5Not required but necessary 13.5 19.7 16.7 16.9 13.9Not required but useful 41.3 49.2 55.6 53.0 47.9Neither required nor useful 14.8 11.5 22.2 6.0 16.9

PhD worthwhile for work you doVery worthwhile/Worthwhile 65.5 59.3 58.8 70.7 57.6Fairly worthwhile 20.0 30.5 17.6 24.4 23.6Hardly worthwhile/Not at all worthwhile 14.5 10.2 23.5 4.9 18.8

Table 5.2.2 - Evaluation of PhD one year after graduating (% values). Veneto - 2017


13

43 units (in 2005 there were 33 more). According to demographic forecasts, the situation is set to wors-en until 2033. With the disappearance of the baby boom generation, it is estimated that this imbalance will gradually diminish, reaching an index of 136 in Veneto in 2060; however, the elderly component will continue to weigh significantly: 33.4% of the population will be elderly.Another index representing the degree of ageing in the working-age population is the active popu-lation structure indicator, i.e. the percentage ratio between the older working-age population (40-64 years) and younger working-age population (15-39 years). In 2005, this index showed a situation between the two parts in Veneto that was almost balanced (106), but in just over ten years, there has been such significant growth that, in 2017, a rate of 147 was recorded, due to the transition to the 40-64 age bracket of a large number of those born during thebaby boom.

An active population that gets older and olderThe fact that the working-age population is now older is even more evident if we analyse the same indices considering only those who are employed. In less than fifteen years, the replacement index of employed people in Veneto has risen from 97 in 2005, thus highlighting a situation in which young people in employment were more numerous than those in the 55-64 age group, to 127 in 2008 and 344 in 2018. The trend is similar if we examine the structure index. Among other things, it is interesting to highlight the gender gaps. At the beginning of the century, a certain degree of female initiative emerged, driven in part by European and national strategic policies aimed at increasing female participation in order to improve the sustainability of the labour market (con-sider the target, not yet reached, set by the Lisbon Strategy of achieving a 60% employment rate for women by 2010): against a 55-64 year-old female population that is more than a third larger than the 15-24 year-old population (the replacement index for the female population of Veneto was 137 in 2005), employed young women in Veneto exceed their colleagues who are potentially ready to retire by almost 30 units, while the figures for the male population favour the older age group. The cultur-al change in the relationship between women and work also has an impact: ever fewer housewives and more working women. In 2018, the gap narrowed

Ageing makes the sustainability of the pension system a critical issue.The progressive tilting of the population structure towards the elderly age groups threatens the sus-tainability of the pension system, which is based on the contribution load of an active population that will become increasingly weak compared to the growing number of old-age pensioners. From the analysis of the age structure, one measure of the generational imbalance in the labour market, and therefore of the social impact, is that of the ac-tive population replacement rate, which indicates the percentage ratio between the population group that is potentially about to retire (55-64 years) and the population that is about to enter the labour mar-ket (15-24 years). Values close to 100 express a sit-uation of equilibrium. As early as 2017, there was already a clear problem in maintaining the working capacity of the country and our region at a constant level: in Veneto, the potential elderly workforce ex-ceeded the number of young people entering by

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

2058

2060

Indice di struttura Indice di ricambio

147

133

106

143

Fig. 5.3.1 - Replacement index and structure of the active population (*). Veneto - 2005:2017 and forecasts 2018:2060

(*) Replacement index = (Population 55-64 years / Population 15-24 years)x100Structure index = (Population 40-64 years / Population 15-39 years)x100Source: Processing of Istat data and forecasts by the Regione Veneto Statistical Office


14

considering the assumption that later retirement limits the growth in the old-age dependency ratio and reduces the pension expenditure dynamics. This is how, between 2005 and 2018, the employ-ment rate of people between 55 and 64 years of age rose in Italy from 31.4% to 53.7% and in Veneto from 27.4% to 55.6%. The two components of the replacement index have, therefore, changed radically in the last fifteen years, following divergent dynamics: the elderly component, the index numerator, has strongly in-creased, and the youth component, the denomina-tor, has significantly decreased. If only women are considered, these changes have been even more

and the situation reversed in favour of greater em-ployment for people aged 55-64, for both men and women. The considerable variation in the replacement index

for the employed population be-tween those who are potential-

ly about to retire (55-64 years) and those who are about to enter the world of work (15-24 years) is due to several factors that have acted simultaneously, but in different directions on the two components of the indicator, namely the youngest and the oldest employed people.

From 2005 to 2018 the em-ployed popula-tion of Veneto

in the 15-24 age group decreased by 33.3%, with a loss of almost 53,600 units, against population growth in this age group of 5.4%. This debacle is due to the economic crisis, to difficulties in finding work, especially for young people, and to the in-crease in education, factors which are also interrelat-ed since the lower availability of jobs pushes young people to continue their studies. As proof of this, the tertiary education rate in the 30-34 age group, i.e. the share of graduates out of the total number of young people in the same age group, increased by 11.5 percentage points from 2005 to 2017, increas-ing from 16.1% to 27.6%.

On the other hand, changes in pension regu-lations due to fi-

nancial sustainability problems linked to an ageing population and lower fertility, European recommen-dations on increasing the employment of people in older age groups and greater female participa-tion in the labour market have led to an increase in the number of employed people in the 55-64 age group, more than doubling in recent years. The ageing of the population and its close connec-tion with the labour market led, towards the start of the century, to a policy of keeping older people in the labour market. On the one hand, in Europe, the Lisbon Strategy set a target of 50% for the employ-ment rate among 55-64 year-olds by 2010; on the other hand, there have been many reforms in our country, since the early 1990s, aimed at sustainable pension expenditure. Among other measures, these policies have raised the minimum retirement age,

Crisis and ageing: an alarming combination...

… fewer young people who work …

... more older people in employment

2,5 1,5 0,5 0,5 1,5 2,5202326293235384144475053565962

2005

Femmina Maschio

2,5 1,5 0,5 0,5 1,5 2,5202326293235384144475053565962

2017

Fig. 5.3.2 - Employed population by gender and age. Veneto - 2005 and 2017



15

ratio between the number of pen-sions and the res-ident population: in our region, 36.1 pensions

were paid for every 100 people, a lower value than that recorded at national level (37.2) and 1.2 per-centage points lower than that recorded five years earlier. Since, however, the same person can receive more than one pension, it is appropriate not only to an-alyse the pension benefits, but also the individu-al recipients, who in Veneto totalled 1,261,475 in 2016, and to take the dependency ratio that weighs the number of pensioners per 100 employees as a measure for the cost of the pension system. The regional comparison shows that our region has a more sustainable system than others: 100 employ-ees must, in fact, support 61 pensioners compared to 69 at the average Italian level. A better perfor-mance can only be seen in Trentino Alto Adige with 55 pensioners per 100 employees, in Lazio (59) and Lombardy (60). The most critical situations, on the

pronounced: in recent years, in fact, female employ-ment has grown despite the crisis and in contrast to male employment and, at the same time, pen-sion reforms have affected women more, starting with the elimination of baby pensions, whereby it was possible to leave work with 14 years 6 months and 1 day of contributions. For this reason, the em-ployed men from Veneto aged 55-64 years doubled in number in this period (2005:2018), while the num-ber of employed women more than tripled. The changes in the employment structure are shown in the diagram below, which gives the pyramid by gender and age, a graphic representation that is usually used to describe the general population. In just over ten years, the "belly" of the diagram has shifted to older ages, narrowing the base and widening the top of this pyramid. The employed population therefore rests on a narrower base that will struggle to maintain the balance of such a top-heavy structure.

In Veneto, the pension system is more sustainableThis complex combination of an ageing population and the financial crisis highlights the need for poli-cies to promote more prudent management of pen-sion savings and the long-term improvement of the sustainability of public finances. For a better understanding of the phenomenon, it is appropriate to mention the starting point of Italy and our region. To this end, we provide some data on pensions and pension beneficiaries.According to Istat data, in 2016 the total expendi-ture incurred to provide pensions in Italy amounted to 16.8% of GDP, while in Veneto, it stood at 14.5%. Only Trentino Alto Adige (11.8%) and Lombardy (13.7%) recorded a lower rate: this is a positive re-sult, since a greater proportion of the wealth pro-duced can be destined for other uses and public

services. At the other end of the scale is Calabria, where 23.2% of GDP was spent

on pensions.In 2016, a total of about 1,772,000 pensions were paid in Veneto. These are mainly old-age and re-tirement pensions (58.3%) and survivors' pensions (23.9%), less so welfare pensions (civil invalidity, social pensions and war) whose cost is borne entirely by the State. An indication of the cost of the pension system is given by the retirement rate, i.e. the percentage

In 2016, 16.8% of GDP was allocated to pensions in Italy and in Veneto14.5%

In Veneto, there are 61 pensioners per 100 employees... the fourth lowest rate among the Italian regions

95,8

68,8

60,655,2

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Cal

abria

Sici

liaPu

glia

Mol

ise

Lig

uria

Sard

egna

Bas

ilica

taC

amp

ania

Um

bria

Ab

ruzz

oFr

iuli

V.G

.M

arch

ePi

emon

teIt

alia

Tosc

ana

Valle

d'A

o.Em

ilia

Rom

.Ve

neto

Lom

bar

dia

Lazi

oTr

entin

o A

.A.

Fig. 5.3.3 - Dependency ratio: number of pensioners per 100 employees per region - 2016



16

needed today to live on); it is also important to question the quality of life once retired, the num-

ber of years left to spend on our-selves, on hob-bies and on the

family after a life spent at work. And the impact is not limited to the individual but can branch out in several directions: think, for example, of the great resource that are today's grandparents, who take care of; their grandchildren if they work up to old age, they will certainly not be able to devote as much time to the family and this will lead also to a review of childcare services.In this scenario, the current Italian policy on pen-sions "Quota 100" comes into play. Article 14 of Decree Law 4/2019 introduces, from 2019, the possibility of retiring with a combination of 62 years of age and 38 years of contributions, in addition to the traditional retirement channels pro-vided for by the Fornero Law (early retirement and old-age pension).

However, the measure is pro-visional and ex-perimental and is

active for the three-year period 2019-2021: it ap-plies to those who satisfy the above requirements of being at least 62 years of age and having at least 38 years of contributions by 31 December 2021. An-yone who has reached these requirements by that date acquires the right to retire even further down the line, i.e. freezing the right to a pension.It should be noted that the uncompromising nature of the combination of personal age and contribu-tion age means, for example, that a person with 36 years of contributions and 64 years old, despite hav-ing reached 100 mathematically, will have to wait at least another two years to qualify.After 2021, Quota 100 should make way - at least in the intentions of the current parliamentary majority - for Quota 41, a measure that the Government has not yet been able to adopt due to a lack of finan-cial resources and that will allow all those who have paid at least 41 years of contributions to retire early regardless of age.The European Commission has criticised the lower-ing of the retirement age by stating that this entails additional costs for the State. To this the Honoura-ble Claudio Durigon, Undersecretary of Labour, re-plied that "The resources allocated to Quota 100 amount to about 22 billion in three years. I realise

other hand, are found in the South, where the in-dicator exceeds 77% and Calabria has an almost equal ratio between the number of pensioners and number of employees. The figure for Liguria is also high, at 80%.

Financial sustainability of pensions and satisfactory living standards of pension-ers: walking the tightrope?Of course, the important social consequences of ageing are also of concern. It is a balancing act: whereas, on the one hand, the increase in the num-ber of elderly people, linked also to the difficulties generated by the financial crisis, jeopardises the fi-nancial sustainability of the pension system, on the other hand, care must be taken to ensure that pen-sioners have a satisfactory standard of living, in the spirit of fairness and solidarity between the gener-ations.From an economic point of view, the elderly rep-resent a vulnerable segment of the population, in particular women who face serious economic diffi-culties due to their lower average pensions and low pay.On average, a pensioner from Veneto lives with a gross annual income of about €17,850, which is also less than the national average (€17,936).In detail, in 2016, 35% of pensioners in Veneto re-ceived less than €1,000 per month (in Italy 38%), while 24.4% take home between €1,000 and €1,500. Once again there is clear gender inequality, in fact, the situation is very different between men and

women: women, who represent 52% of pension-ers, in 47.2% of cases receive a

pension that does not reach €1,000 per month, 33% not even €750, compared, respectively, to 21% and 22% for men. If we then want to examine the pro-portions of pensioners with a pension income below even €500, a sum with which it is virtually impossible to live today, 9.2% of women in Veneto have a pen-sion this low, against 6.5% of men (in Italy, respec-tively, 11.9% and 9.6%). In addition, 31% of male pensioners live with a pension of more than €2,000 compared to 12.3% recorded among women. What are the future prospects? It is clear that, thanks to the contribution system, the money to survive on will be significantly less than the money received while working (even with a supplementary pension that, in any case, sets aside money that could be

Almost half of retired women live on less than €1,000 per month

What future?

Quota 100


17

that, every time we tackle the pension system, we do not look at the human side of the people, worn out by work, but even when we look at the accounts there are terms of comparison that demonstrate that the measure is sustainable."

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STATISTICA REPORT 2019 5