State of the N.C. Workforce Report 2011 - 2020

1

10 BIG Challenges We Face

1. Worker dislocation accelerated during the recession due to long-term structural changes

2. Workers employed in low-skill, middle-wage jobs are competing for fewer good-paying jobs while opportunities offering similar wages (i.e., “new middle” jobs) demand higher skills

3. While metropolitan workers have a more diverse set of career possibilities, they must continuously adapt to increasing demands in the workplace and a more competitive labor market

4. Dislocated or young workers in economically hard-hit micropolitan and rural areas have very limited alternatives for employment

5. Seeking good-paying jobs, more workers must increase their skills by accessing and completing education beyond high school or by earning industry-recognized credentials

2

10 BIG Challenges (cont.)

6. The recession slowed baby boomer retirements, but the impact is likely to be felt first and greatest in micropolitan and rural areas where more workers are near-retirement age

7. High-skill in-migrants recruited to help companies meet their talent requirements are seeking jobs in amenity-rich metropolitan areas

8. Migration of new workers continued at near pre-recession levels, even among low-skilled workers, despite the limited availability of jobs

9. Lower-skilled workers accounted for most of the unemployed and required significantly greater social services during the recession

10. Workers employed in certain industries – e.g., manufacturing, finance, distribution, or construction – were more likely to lose their jobs and to need retraining to find work

3

“New Middle” Jobs Replacing Low-skill Middle Jobs

4

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Advanced Degree 4-year College Degree

Tech-Some Post High School with Some Experience

High School Below High School

Perc

ent o

f Net

New

Job

s (2

010-

2020

)

North Carolina

'New' Middle Jobs

'Disappearing' TraditionalMiddle Jobs

Source: EMSI

Certain Metro Areas Offer Jobseekers More Options

Source: EMSI Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness

Net Employment Change(2005-2010)

Each BLUE dot equals 150 net jobs gained

Each RED dot equals 150 net jobs lost

STEM Disciplines Among the Most Valued Knowledge and Skills

$21.34

$19.64

$33.69

$32.28

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00

USA

North Carolina

STEM Occupations

All Occupations

Source: EMSI, BLS STEM Definition, CREC estimates

Workforce Aging More Significant Challenge for Micro/Rural Areas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Metro

Micro

Rural

Source: EMSI

Born “outside NC” Soon to Become Majority

2005 2009 Change CAGR 05-09Born in NC 3,072,162 3,214,764 142,602 1.1%Born outside NC 2,496,727 2,935,483 438,756 4.1%Total 5,568,889 6,150,247 581,358 2.5%Source: American Community Survey (2005, 2009)

Large Proportion of New In-migrants Have BA or Higher

TOTAL (NC) 6,065,043 995,867 1,706,044 1,774,577 1,060,751 527,804 Moved from Out of State, 2008-09 201,394 21,959 45,125 60,645 44,422 29,243 Moved from Different State, 2008-09 171,888 15,975 39,938 53,888 37,658 24,429 Moved from Abroad, 2008-09 29,506 5,984 5,187 6,757 6,764 4,814 Out of State % of Total 3.3% 2.2% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.5%Source: ACS

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or professional

degreeLess than high

school graduate

High school graduate (incl. equivalency)

Some college or associate's

degreeTotal Pop. 25+,

2009

In-Migrants Concentrating in Charlotte and Research Triangle Areas

CountyNet In

migrantsNet Out

migrantsNET

MIGRANTSNorth Carolina 538,171 453,269 84,902Wake 56,403 38,092 18,311Mecklenburg 57,744 48,503 9,241Union 14,526 8,308 6,218Johnston 11,371 7,090 4,281Cabarrus 12,992 9,252 3,740Brunswick 7,819 4,475 3,344Iredell 9,796 6,891 2,905Gaston 10,519 7,742 2,777Guilford 23,461 20,909 2,552Harnett 9,728 7,451 2,277Source: US Internal Revenue Service

Education Increases Wages

11

Educational Band Emp 2010Net New Jobs

(10-20)

Annual Growth Rate

(10-20)Average Wages

2010% Total

Emp (2010)Advanced Degree 150,103 38,494 2.3% $99,634 3.7% 6.9%4-year College Degree 615,400 111,523 1.7% $73,909 15.3% 20.1%Tech Degree-Some Post 353,273 81,105 2.1% $43,771 8.8% 14.6%High School with Some Exp. 667,049 59,980 0.9% $42,677 16.6% 10.8%High School Degree 793,478 94,882 1.1% $33,615 19.7% 17.1%Below High School 1,442,115 169,167 1.1% $22,774 35.9% 30.5%Total* 4,021,418 555,151 1.3% $38,293 100.0% 100.0%Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.*Does not include military occupations, or other occupations that do not have a defined minimum education requirement

15.2%

10.6%

8.3%

4.5%

8.4%

17.5%

12.0%

9.4%

4.2%

9.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Less than High School

High school graduate

Some college or associate's degree

Bachelor's degree or higher

Total

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(200

9)

US North Carolina

Source: ACS 2009

Education Also Aids Job Stability