49
SRI annual meeting 13 November 2015

SRI annual meeting - BP · Forward-looking statements - cautionary statement The presentations and the associated slides and discussion contain certain forecasts, projections and

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SRI annual meeting

13 November 2015

Forward-looking statements - cautionary statement

The presentations and the associated slides and discussion contain certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements – that is, statements related to future, not past events – with

respect to the financial condition, results of operation and businesses of BP and certain of the plans and objectives of BP with respect to these items. In particular, among other statements, certain

statements regarding future focus on safety and efficiency in operations; with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of BP and certain of the expectations, intentions,

plans and objectives of BP with respect to these items, in particular statements regarding future global energy trends and oil price, expectations regarding the settlement of certain claims in the

Gulf of Mexico litigation; BP’s plans and expectations regarding the 'BP Proposition', active portfolio management, future portfolio resilience and the effects of future and current technologies on

BP’s portfolio; expectations regarding BP’s plans to rebalance the financial framework and the future growth of organic free cash flow; plans and expectations regarding the Upstream major project

pipeline and an increasing bias to gas; expectations regarding divestments and the prospects for, expected timing, locations, composition and future production of major projects and growth; plans

and expectations regarding BP’s ability to sustain its dividend, growth of shareholder distributions over the long-term and expected gearing levels; BP’s expectations in respect of future global

demographic and economic trends, expectations regarding future trends in global energy demand and expectations regarding future contributions to global supply from different energy sources;

levels of emissions and temperature, as well as improvements in engine efficiency, and the effect of a carbon price, are all forward looking in nature.

By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control

of BP. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including the timing of the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory

approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum

and nature of certain divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America; OPEC quota restrictions; PSA effects; operational

problems; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations;

changes in sanctions and other trade restrictions; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of

prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; the impact on our reputation following the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; the actions of the Claims Administrator appointed under the Economic and Property

Damages Settlement; the actions of all parties to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill-related litigation at various phases of the litigation; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology;

the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, creditors, rating agencies and others; decisions by Rosneft’s management and board of directors in respect of

strategy, operations or otherwise; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and

acts of terrorism, cyber-attacks or sabotage; and other factors discussed under “Principal risks and uncertainties” in BP’s Stock Exchange Announcement for the period ended 30 June 2015 and

under “Risk factors” in our Annual Report and Form 20-F 2014 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Cautionary note to US investors – This presentation contains references to non-proved resources and production outlooks based on non-proved resources that the SEC’s rules prohibit us from

including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures in our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-06262. This form is available on our website at www.bp.com. You

can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or by logging on to their website at www.sec.gov.

Tables and projections in this presentation are BP projections unless otherwise stated.

Stock Exchange Announcement: For further information on BP’s results, please see our Stock Exchange Announcement for the period ended 30 September 2015.

November 2015

Cautionary statement

Carl-Henric Svanberg

Chairman

Board context

Dev Sanyal

Executive vice president, strategy and

regions

Industry context and our

priorities

5

• Context for the sector and BP

• Managing operational risk

• Shareholder resolution 25 - our response

• Operating performance

Agenda

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Current context

6

(1) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

(2) Refining Marker Margin based on BP’s portfolio

Brent(1)

$/b

bl

Henry Hub(1)

Refining Marker Margin(2)

$/b

bl

2013 2014

$/m

mb

tu

2015 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 1

2

3

5

4

6

7

8

20

40

60

100

80

120

The longer term view $/b

bl

7

Money of the day

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1965 2000 2035

Th

ou

san

ds

OECD

Other

Non-OECD

Asia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1965 2000 2035

0

60

120

180

240

1965 2000 2035

GDP and energy demand growth

8

*Includes biofuels

Shares of primary energy

Oil

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear Renewables*

Billion toe

Energy consumption by region

Trillion, $2011 PPP

GDP

OECD

Other

Non-

OECD

Asia

Our strategic principles

• Safe and efficient

operations

• Capital and cost

discipline

• Resilience, focused on

value over volume

• Competitive growth

• A focused technology

programme

• Relationships of

mutual advantage

9

1. Capex of $17-19bn per annum over 2015-17

2. Cash costs reduced by over $6bn by 2017 versus

2014

3. Balance organic sources and uses of cash(1)

at

~$60/bbl by 2017; organic free cash flow growth

thereafter

4. Divestments of $9-10bn 2014-15; $3-5bn 2016;

$2-3bn 2017+

5. Gearing managed with flexibility around 20%

6. Commitment to sustaining the dividend

10

Our proposition

(1) Excludes Deepwater Horizon (DWH) payments, includes 100% of dividend.

Organic free cashflow = Operating cash flow excluding DWH payments less organic capex.

GDP, energy and emissions

11

GDP, energy and emissions Emissions growth 2013 to 2035

Billion tonnes CO2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GDP growth

effect

Projected

growth

Energy

intensity

Fuel mix

Index: 1990 = 100

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2005 2020 2035

CO2

Energy

GDP

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035

Partnership

12

Bob Fryar

Executive vice president, safety and

operational risk

Managing operational risk

A safer, stronger BP

BP’s agenda is a multi-year programme with activities risk-prioritized and paced to achieve

enduring and sustainable change. Three principles underpin our efforts:

14

Our goals on safety remains the same:

no accidents, no harm to people and no damage to the environment

To promote deep

capability and a safe

operating culture

Our operating

management system

(OMS) is the way BP

operates

We test our conduct of

operating through self

verification, independent

assurance and audit.

Risk mitigation

15

Mitigation barriers Prevention barriers

Reputation

impact

Toxic release

Environmental

release

Fire or explosion

Financial loss

Corrosion

Erosion

Mechanical

failure

Breaking

containment

Start-up / shut-

down operations

External impact

Operating outside an

operating envelope

Fatigue

Possible causes

Hydrocarbons

LOPC from

onshore process

facility

Possible

consequences

1

2

3

Plant shut down

Leak containment

Spill response

1 2 3

1 2 3

1

2

3 Corrosion prevention

Material protection

Maintain mechanical

integrity

Maintain mechanical

integrity 2

2

LOPC – Loss of primary containment

Risk mitigation

16

Prevention barriers

1 2 3

2 Maintain mechanical integrity 2

2

Routine maintenance on process equipment

(e.g. Rotating Machinery)

Vibration and fatigue assessments of pipework

Cathodic protection surveys

External hull inspection (FPSO)

Visual inspection walk-downs

Inspection pipeline pigging

Maintenance pipeline pigging

Subsea ROV inspection

Advanced non intrusive inspection

Internal vessel inspection

FPSO – Floating production, storage and offloading ROV – Remotely operated vehicle

Safety and environmental performance

Number of Tier 1 & Tier 2 process safety events (T1 &T2 PSE) Number of losses of primary containment (LOPC)

Recordable injury frequency (RIF) Number of oil spills ≥ 1 Barrel

17

• Year on year performance

• Underpinned by our three

principles

• 25 Bly recommendations

complete

• Safety is good business

18

In summary

SRI annual meeting

13 November 2015

Qs and As

SRI annual meeting

13 November 2015

21

Dev Sanyal

Executive vice president, strategy and

regions

Shareholder resolution

Shareholder resolution 25 – our response

22

• The energy transition

• Resolution response

− Emissions

− Portfolio resilience

− Public policy

− Technology and low carbon R&D

23

The energy transition – our point of view

1,700

700

400

Potential CO2 emissions from known

fossil fuel reserves (Gigatonnes)

Oil Gas Coal

Pragmatic action

needed

Access to

affordable and

secure energy

Multiple actors,

multiple actions

Production v

demand

Coal economy v

gas economy

IOCs and NOCs

BP Sustainability Report

24

Dominic Emery

VP long term planning and policy

David Eyton

Group head of technology

BP’s response

Emissions – reporting

25

Direct CO2e by segment

• Upstream

• Downstream

• Other business and corporate (OB&C),

including shipping and alternative

energies

Direct CO2e by GHG type

• CO2

• Methane

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mte C

O2e

OB&C

Upstream

Downstream

Direct GHG emissions by source

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mte C

O2e

Methane

CO2

Mte CO2e= Million tonnes CO

2 equivalent

Direct GHG emissions by segment

Emissions – operations

26

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mte C

H4

OB&C

Downstream

Upstream

Methane emissions by segment

Mte CH4

= Million tonnes methane

Upstream

• Methane detection

• Flaring intensity

• Real sustainable reductions

• External initiatives

Refining

• Energy intensity

• Product formulations

Petrochemicals

• Energy consumption and efficiency

Emissions – products

27

Lubricants

• 5.2 million tonnes of CO2 avoided using

in the last ten years

Advanced fuels

• New Ultimate fuels range launched in Spain

this year

• Up to 56km / tank better for diesel

• Up to 44km / tank better for gasoline

Portfolio resilience

Resilient to the environment

• Integrated business model

• ~80% of pre-FID(1) major projects break-even below

$60/bbl Brent oil price

• Carbon price applied to projects to test resilience

Long-term growth and optionality

• Balance of deepwater, gas value chains and giant

fields, with an increasing bias to gas

• Strong pipeline of growth options, with flexibility

Reserves replacement

• Reserves to production ratio of 13 years providing

portfolio flexibility

Contribution to 2020 pre-tax

operating cash flow(2)

Existing

assets

Post-FID(2)

major

projects

Pre-FID(2)

Giant

oil

fields

Deepwater

oil

Gas value

chains

Angola

North Sea

Azerbaijan

Gulf of

Mexico

Other

(1) Final Investment Decision

(2) Based on BP planning assumptions

Upstream

Proved

reserves at

end 2014

2014

Production

Reserves replaced

every ~13 years

28

Portfolio resilience – growth of gas

29

• Gas has half the CO2 emissions of coal when

combusted for power generation

• 50% of our current production is gas, and is

forecast to grow 60% by the mid 2020s

• Two mega-projects in construction

− Shah Deniz 2

− Oman Khazzan

Mid

2020s

2014

Gas Oil

Portfolio resilience – major gas projects

30

Shah Deniz 2

• 40TCF, giant resource base

• Pipelines to Europe through 7

countries

• Project under construction

• Gas to Turkey in 2018; to Europe

in 2020

Oman Khazzan

• 100TCF, giant resource base

• 7TCF first phase of development

• 2017 first gas for growing domestic market

• ~300 wells

• Designed to minimise methane leakage

TCF = Trillion cubic feet

Portfolio resilience – renewables businesses

31

• The largest operated renewable business of

supermajors

• ~3 million tonnes avoided CO2 in 2014

Brazilian biofuels: 3 mills, 643 million litres production

• Growing domestic ethanol market

• Cost-advantaged and robust at $45 – 50/bbl

US wind: 16 farms, 4,700 GWh production

• Consistent operational performance

• Power purchase agreements resilient to oil and gas

prices

GWh = Gigawatt hours

Portfolio resilience – asset classes

Source: BP Technology Outlook

Technology

• Grows recoverable volumes

• Reduces cost of supply

• Changes rank

Carbon price

• Increases cost of supply

• Price impact varies by asset class

• Changes rank

32

2012 2050

$80/t carbon price

Deepwater

Ultra-deepwater Onshore extra heavy Shale oil

Onshore heavy Shallow water

Oil sands

Onshore

Tight oil Oil shale

Technically recoverable volume (boe)

Co

st p

er b

arre

l o

f o

il e

qu

ivale

nt ($

/b

oe

)

Public policy – approach

33

Pillars

• Carbon price

• Efficiency of operations and products

• The role of gas

• The role of technology and research

• Partnerships and initiatives

Products

• Energy Outlook

• Technology Outlook

Partnerships

OGCI declaration and report – www.oilandgasclimateinitiative.com

Technology – approach

34

• R&D spend of $663m in

2014

• Leading technologies in

− Upstream – seismic

imaging and enhanced

oil recovery

− Downstream –

petrochemicals and

formulated products

• Efficiency of extraction

and conversion

• Low carbon options

Competitor

range

BP

Reported R&D/

capital employed

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1.8

%

Technology – venturing

35

Our venture portfolio

• 38 investments

• Supporting efficiency of

core oil and gas

• Insights into

renewables and

alternatives

• ~1000 opportunities

screened annually

Oil and gas

Renewables & alternatives

Heliex Power – Screw expander that recovers energy from

wet steam or two phase fluids to generate electricity

Biosynthetic Technologies – creates “biosynthetic” oils

from plant fatty acids used in lubricants, speciality

chemicals, and cosmetics

Liquid Light – develops technology that allows efficient

conversions of carbon dioxide to a wide variety of

chemicals, fuels and other compounds

Fo-Tech – Fiber optic Distribution Acoustic Sensing for

monitoring pipelines and downhole operations: fracture

monitoring, production logging and leak detection

Solidia Technologies – developing next generation

building materials that consume, not generate carbon

dioxide in the production process

Skyonic – converts carbon dioxide emissions to solids for

long-term storage

36

Technology – university & public-private partnerships

Energy Biosciences Institute

Energy Sustainability Challenge

BP Institute of Multiphase Flow

BP International Centre for Advanced Materials

Carbon Mitigation Initiative

Technology Outlook – key messages

37

• Energy resources are plentiful

• The power sector offers greatest scope for reducing emissions

• Transport is set to become more fuel efficient

• Some emerging technologies could prove disruptive

BP Technology Outlook – www.bp.com/technology

Bernard Looney

Chief operating officer, production

Operating safely, responsibly

and efficiently

Operating performance

• Latest metrics

• Performance in action

• Looking to the future

Environmental performance

• Flaring reduction

• Methane emission reduction

• Building for the future

39

Agenda

Operating performance – process safety

Data excludes Lower 48

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015

GOO process safety -

Tier 1 events

40

GOO – Global Operations Organisation

Operating performance – LOPCs

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3Q 2015

GOO loss of primary

containment events (A-G)

41

Data excludes Lower 48

Operating performance – plant reliability

42

80%

85%

90%

95%

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015

Upstream operated

plant reliability

GOO process safety -

tier 1 events

Data excludes Lower 48

Operating performance – today’s technology

Equipment reliability &

availability monitoring

Operating envelope

monitoring Advanced condition

monitoring

Plant operations advisor

Operating performance – the future

Flaring reduction - Azerbaijan

46

Methane reduction – leak detection and repair programme

Building for the future - Oman Khazzan

SRI annual meeting

13 November 2015

Qs and As

49 49

SRI annual meeting

13 November 2015