Impact evaluation for: Special Program for Food Security

and Productivity Enhancement of

Small Farmers in Pakistan

(Crop Maximization Project-II)

Section A: Presentation of

project

Area and Target Group • Areas of intervention: 1,012 Villages: Punjab

430, Sindh 230, NWFP 160, Balochistan 150, AJK 40 and FATA 2.

• Description of target group or beneficiaries: Small Farmers with land holding of up to 20 acres in Punjab, 25 acres in Sindh & Balochistan, 15 acres in KPK and 5 acres in AJ&K.

• Size of the target group: About 30,360 farmers in 1,012 villages

Description of existing data on

beneficiaries before the program started:

There is considerable gap between the yield per acre of a progressive farmer and a small farmer. The small farmers lack access to credit, technical know-how, farm implements, etc, which result in the low productivity of the small farms. The credit to these farmers is provided by middlemen (Arhties) who give the farmer rate of their choice for his produce. This project proposes to help small farmers get out of the clutches of these middlemen.

Brief description of the problem

tackled by the project:

• The project envisages enhancement of farm productivity and sustainability of agriculture for food security. It will establish collective institutions, i.e., beneficiary owned and managed 1,012 Village Organizations (VOs) in 1,012 villages of 27 districts of all the provinces, AJ&K and FATA for procurement of critical inputs / services, marketing of outputs and diversification of income generating activities. It will be a technology-led project with main focus on small and resource poor farmers having land holdings below 25 acres.

• A pilot project was implemented in three districts, popularly known as Sargodha Model. Finding the results to be encouraging, increase in productivity by about 30 %, Crop Maximization Project (CMP) was launched in 109 villages. Upon evaluation of this project, it was decided to implement the project on 1,012 villages, albeit with certain modifications.

Specific Objectives a). Increase agricultural productivity in rural areas of

Pakistan.

b). Enhance food security through provision of sustainable livelihood programs.

c). Empower small farmers and agricultural producers through the establishment of self-managed rural organizations backed by appropriate laws and regulations that enable them to manage their resources efficiently and become profitable market oriented entities.

d). Build sustainable financial mechanisms to channel smallholder’s own resources as well as external investments into the smallholder agriculture sector.

SPECIFIC SERVICES DELIVERED TO THE

PROJECT BENEFICIARIES/ PARTICIPANTS

• Organizing and empowering farmer’s community through social mobilization, formation / registration / empowerment of 1,012 Village Organizations (VOs) and establishment / operation of revolving fund by VOs.

• Revolving Fund: To solve credit problems of small farmers, a Revolving Fund of Rs. 4.391 billion will be established in 1,012 villages, 50% of which will be recovered in 5 equal installments starting from 6th year of loan disbursement. The remaining 50% will be Government equity. The VOs will extend the input loan to the farmers at 10% handling charges. The revolving fund will be recovered by the concerned revenue department of the District Governments from VOs and returned to the Federal Government.

• Capacity building for crop productivity and income enhancement through training of VOs for administrative, financial and business management, farmers field schools, short-term training, field days / meetings, study tours, workshops, seminars, etc. It involves training to 2,676 staff and 25,040 farmers.

• Crop productivity Enhancement: Crops such as wheat, cotton, rice, maize, sugarcane, potato, oilseeds, pulses and vegetables will be planted on an area of 1,680,860 acres with the target to enhance their productivity by 35%.

• Small Animal Health Units / Animal Breeding Farms: About 1,012 each of animal breeding farms / health units will be established in the project area.

SPECIFIC SERVICES Cont’d

• Market linkages development through formation of 2,900/340 Commodity Specific Groups / Clusters (CSGs/CSCs), linkage producers with market functionaries / value chains, linkage producers with financial institutions, facilitating technical support, facilitating capacity building and training, building physical sale and marketing points.

• Establishment of Farm Services Centers / Implement Pools in each village or a cluster of 3-5 villages to facilitate farmers in the availability of farm machinery: 80% cost will be borne by the project and 20% by the farmers. Rent of implements will go to revolving fund.

• Input Sale/Marketing Centers (66 in total) working as houses of sale / marketing of inputs and farmer’s produce will also be established in one cluster of 30 villages.

• Establishment of small enterprises through income diversification interventions such as establishment of enterprise clusters, rural poultry farming, fish farming, off-season vegetable production, aquaculture, bee farming, provision of specialized farm services, goat and sheep farming, calf farming, dairy farming, feed mill, inputs sale centers, milk collection centers, establishment of fruit and forest plant nurseries, introduction and promotion of women operated homestead tube plant nurseries. For these, 80% cost will be borne by the project and 20% upfront by the beneficiary farmers. The Project cost will be recovered in 24 equal installments along with 10% handling charges.

Annual Financial Phasing Financial Requirements (Rs Million)

Total

Percent

share

COMPONENTS

Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5

FMCU, MINFAL* 245.340 128.450 144.100 75.469 79.769 673.128 8.40

PUNJAB 978.531 1,097.469 656.938 379.901 156.508 3,269.347 40.79

SINDH 430.094 483.456 378.026 213.110 102.326 1,607.012 20.05

NWFP 297.744 339.897 264.745 139.243 70.121 1,111.750 13.87

BALUCHISTAN 293.210 334.355 238.705 132.015 69.424 1,067.710 13.32

AJK 68.393 71.129 65.774 40.556 23.574 269.426 3.70

FATA 4.740 5.940 2.252 1.280 0.938 15.150 0.19

TOTAL 2,318.052 2,460.696 1,750.540 981.574 502.660 8,013.522 100.00

* Federal Monitoring and Coordination Unit, Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock

Annual Financial Phasing for

Revolving Fund COMPONENT Financial Requirements (Rs Million)

Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Total

FMCU, MINFAL 0.000 0.000 8.112 0.000 0.000 8.112

PUNJAB 759.000 871.560 390.800 117.960 0.000 2,139.320

SINDH 285.000 346.120 207.800 63.600 0.000 902.520

NWFP 198.000 245.040 142.400 42.400 0.000 627.840

BALUCHISTAN 186.000 241.440 127.200 33.960 0.000 588.600

AJK 33.000 43.368 30.224 10.368 0.000 116.960

FATA 2.500 3.100 0.600 0.448 0.000 6.648

TOTAL 1,463.5 1,750.628 907.136 268.736 0.000 4,390.000

Project Management Structure

District Project Implementation

& Supervision Unit (DISU)

District Implementation Committee (DISC)

Provincial Steering

Committee Provincial Project Director (PPD)

(PMCU) & PIMC*

Revolving Fund

District officer

(Livestock)

District officer

(Agri. Extension) District officer

(Fisheries)

District officer

(OFWM)

District officer

(Revenue)

District officer

(COOP)

National Project Director (NPD)

(FMCU)

National Steering

Committee

MINFAL

Other Rural Partners

Farmers sub groups

Village Organization

* Provincial Implementation & Monitoring Committee

Provincial Project Monitoring & Coordination Structure

`

District Implementation Unit

Village Organization

Provincial Steering Committee under ACS (Dev.)

Secretary Agriculture Secretary Livestock Secretary Fisheries

DG/Director

Livestock Registrar Cooperatives DG Agriculture

Extension

DG/Director

Fisheries

Provincial Project Director (PPD)

Planning & Monitoring Expert Business Development & Marketing

Expert

Transfer of Technology & Training

Expert

District Project Implementation Structure

District

Officer

(Livestock)/ ADLO

Social Mobilizer

and Income

Diversification Officer

Business

Development &

Market Linkage Officer

Planning &

Training

Officer

Agriculture

Officers

District

Officer/Deput

y or Asstt (Fisheries)

District Implementation & Supervision Committee

under DCO

Executive District

Officer (EDO)

(Agriculture)

District Officer

(Revenue)

District Officer/Deputy Registrar (Cooperatives)

District Officer (Marketing)

District Project Manager

Assistant Registrar

(Cooperatives)

District Officer (Agri. Extension)

Credit & VO

Support Officer

Village Organization

A Similar Project in Tanzania: ASSP Theory of Change

A Similar Project in Tanzania: ASDP-L Theory of Change

PROGRAMME STEERING

COMMITTEE

PROGRAMME

TECHNICAL TEAM

Programme

Advisor

PROGRAMME

COORDINATOR

Liaison Officer Technical Support

Officer

Operation

Manager

Agricultural

Officer

Planning

Officer

CADO M&E Financial Manager

Assistant Programme

Coordinator

Drivers Messenger

Assistant

M&E Procurement

Officer

IFAD / SMZ

Accountant

Livestock Officer

Asstt.

Liaison

Officer

DMT

DFT

Farmer Groups

Individual farmers

Secretary

Cashier

Financers

Lead ministry

ASFT

Implementers

and

Beneficiaries

Accountant

Driver Secretary

Tanzania: Organization chart for ASSP AND ASDP-L

Section B: Impact evaluation

of project

Evaluation framework and context

• Baseline study for the 1012 villages with

village profiles, income of farmers, use of

technique, …

• Household survey for Pakistan

• Planning commission is monitoring

Evaluation questions • How much did household income go up in

participating households?

• Did agricultural productivity go up due to

the project?

• Did the dependence to middlemen go

down?

• Are there any unintended effects, e.g.

environmental effects?

Outcome indicators • Household income

• Yield per acre

• Months of food availability, number of

meals

• % borrowed from middlemen, % of yield

sold to the market

Theory and results-chain • Lower prices for inputs incl. credits plus

improved agricultural practices plus decent

prices for output

• will lead to higher income of household will

lead to better food security

• More access to credits will lead to higher

productivity will lead to higher food

security

Evaluation design To make with and without comparison

• Either add an immediate baseline on other

villages (of how many?)

• Or try to implement a randomized

approach on sequencing implementation

• Use propensity score matching to

compare similar households with and

without

Challenges and risks

(to project implementation)

• Natural disaster, e.g. drought, flood,

earthquake

• Terrorism

Methodology • Quantitative methods to compare with and

without

• Qualitative survey (interviews of a

restricted number of (150?) Households)

to find out why the effect occurred

Other remarks The objective of the evaluation might

influence the evaluation question:

• If it is to scale up the project

• If it is to modify the project

• If it is to target the roll out

The question could be:

• What worked under what conditions