Southeast Asia Program - IPNI

SEA04 BMP ALL STAGES PROJECT SOUTH SUMATRAIPNI Southeast Asia for Argus NPK Fertilizers Vietnam 2017
28-29 June, Sheraton Saigon Hotel & Towers
A brief analyses of key agricultural commodities in Southeast Asia
Thomas Oberthür & Tan Mei Shih IPNI Southeast Asia.
IPNI Southeast Asia Program
1. Market Typology
2. Crops & Fertilizers
3. Market Development
08 June 2016, Penang
28-29 June, Sheraton Saigon Hotel & Towers
1 Market Typology
Typology of Markets
20M 60M 140M100M0 40M 160M120M80M 180M
Production of all main crops in the SEA region (million tons)
A gr
ic ul
tu re
va lu
e ad
de d
20M 60M 140M100M0 40M 160M120M80M 180M
A gr
ic ul
tu re
va lu
e ad
de d
20M 60M 140M100M0 40M 160M120M80M 180M
A gr
ic ul
tu re
va lu
e ad
de d
A gr
ic ul
tu re
va lu
e ad
de d
Cambodia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Exit Ag
Value crops
S $)
Subsistence
Key Crops in SEA
Argus NPK Fertilizers Vietnam 2017 28-29 June, Sheraton Saigon Hotel & Towers
Sheet1
Crop
APPROACH
• USDA data (2016) on production (except rubber, FAO 2014)
• Nutrient removal values (mainly IPNI, with literature)
• Fertilizer Use Efficiency (literature or IPNI, +15% in 2025))
• Compound Annual Growth Rate (based on 20 years)
• Nutrient Ratios (FAO data)
Nutrient Removals & Demand (tons)
Nutrient removed 2016 2025
N P K Mg
1,835,201 351,310 435,205 174,781
Fertilizer requirement 2016 2025
N P K Mg
4,588,001 1,405,239 1,088,012 436,953
RICE
RICE
N P K Mg
826,608 96,142 986,530 143,092
N P K Mg
1,777,651 211,302 2,055,270 539,969
OIL PALM
OIL PALM
N P K Mg
373,476 65,358 112,043 NA
N P K Mg
933,690 261,433 280,107 NA
MAIZE
RUBBER
N P K Mg
199,910 49,977 249,887 49,977
N P K Mg
309,745 475,749 522,230 155,523
RUBBER
N P K Mg N P K Mg
309,745 475,749 522,230 155,523 324,564 498,275 547,214 162,939
N P K Mg
156,467 28,448 156,467 42,673
N P K Mg
391,167 113,794 391,167 106,682
N P K Mg N P K Mg
391,167 113,794 391,167 106,682 480,339 139,736 480,339 131,002
Nutrient Removal Ratios, P2O5:N and K2O:N
Sheet1
Crop
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Exiting agriculture Food sufficiency Value products Swing voters
Investment phase passing. Mature market may not extend beyond the next oil palm crop cycle. Only significant new sector: oil palm smallholders.
Continued demand but low cash availability sets limit for new products. New geographical markets emerging. Smallholder targeted approaches required.
High potential in mid- term but dependent on knowledge driven, innovative supply chains.
Strong growth options, but highly uncertain until institutions are in place. Smallholder targeted approaches required.
Typology
ry
Opportunities
A ttr
ac tiv
en es
A ttr
ac tiv
en es
Opportunities
Value Crops
Feasibility (certainty of benefit)
Food Crops
supply and growing conditions.
dealers to maintain trust in the product and
support farmers’ skill to manage the product
within more complex farming systems.
Increasing re- engineering of supply chains to move beyond standard fertilizer products towards targeted inputs that generate known value.
Ensure confidence in investment instruments that work for a region. Develop new supply chain partnerships to drive knowledge based fertilizer management.
Fertilizer is an accepted need for high
production. Translating general belief into targeted ground
action is complex. Identifying the right fertilizer and the right
knowledge for an evolving system is critical.
IPNI Southeast Asia Program
Questions: [email protected]
Malaysia:
Indonesia:
Severe imbalances and NPK gaps in oil palm smallholder systems
Myanmar:
Imbalances and nutrient gaps in in rice (maize, pulses) fertilization
Niches for high density products
Institutional uncertaintyFu
tu re
m ar
ev el
op m
en t
in ve
st m
en t
Opportunities
Vietnam:
Knowledge development opportunities
t
Geographic Opportunities
Philippines:
Large nutrient imbalances
Knowledge development required
t
Buyers’ Risks
Certainty of Benefit
Buyers’ Risks
FERTILIZER SEED FUEL
METRIC Uncertainty about the
.
Buyers’ Risks
TEMPORAL Uncertainty related
.
Buyers’ Risks
.
Buyers’ Risks
STRUCTURAL Uncertainty about impact of other internal factors relevant to the decision
Cook et al. Better Crops 97, 17 - 20 (2013)
TRANSLATIONAL Uncertainty related to issues external to the decision
.
Buyers’ Risks
STRUCTURAL Uncertainty about impact of other internal factors relevant to the decision
Fertilizer supply vis-à-vis crop nutrient demands
Slide Number 2
Slide Number 3
Typology of Markets
Typology of Markets
Typology of Markets
Typology of Markets
Typology of Markets
Slide Number 9
Supply Ratios, Malaysia, Value Crops
Supply Ratios, Myanmar, Food Crops
Supply Ratios, Indonesia, Food Crops
Supply Ratios, Indonesia, Value Crops
Supply Ratios, Philippines, Food & Value Crops
Supply Ratios, Vietnam, Food & Value Crops
Supply Ratios, Thailand, Food & Value Crops
Slide Number 30

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Southeast Asia Program - IPNI