South Indian Bank Result Updated

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Particulars(` cr) 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy)NII 285 273 4.1 222 28.4Pre-prov. profit 163 179 (8.9) 153 6.4

    PAT 122 102 19.3 82 49.1Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 4QFY2012, South Indian Bank (SIB) reported healthy net profit growth of

    49.1% yoy (up 19.3% qoq) to `122cr, which was higher than our estimates on

    account of higher non interest income and lower provisioning expenses than

    estimated by us. We remain Neutral on the stockStrong growth in loan book continues: For FY2012, the banks business growthremained above industry levels, with advances growing by 33.1% yoy (8.9% qoq

    during 4QFY2012) and deposits growing by 22.8% yoy (7.9% qoq during

    4QFY2012). Growth in gold loan portfolio for the bank continued to be healthy,

    registering a 4.6% increase on a sequential basis. The banks low cost deposits as

    a % of overall deposits dropped to 19.7% on account of NRE deposit rates de-

    regulation. The cost of deposits consequently rose by 17bp qoq, however, the

    yield on advances of the bank also rose by 20bp (aided by growth in high

    yielding gold loans), leading to marginal expansion of 5bp qoq in NIMs to 3.1%.

    The banks employee expenses jumped by 43.4% qoq on account of higher

    pension provisioning due to actuarial valuations (impact of ~`22cr). The asset

    quality of the bank deteriorated slightly during 4QFY2012, with slippagesincreasing to `66cr (annualised slippage ratio of 1.3%) from a quarterly run-rate

    of ~`35cr. However, the rise in slippages during 4QFY2012 can be primarily

    attributed to one chunky account (exposure of `50cr to Bharati shipyard).

    Outlook and valuation: The banks foray into gold loans has yielded positiveresults and has led to sustainably higher NIMs. The banks asset quality has also

    held up pretty well inspite of the macro headwinds which have led to higher

    provisioning expenses for most banks. However, current valuations at 1.1x

    FY2014E ABV have factored in the positives in our view and are considerably

    above the valuations of small and mid-sized PSU banks which have similar

    fundamentals, even after factoring in the robust growth witnessed due to the

    sharp rise in gold loans. Also, we expect the banks cost of funds to increasegoing ahead on account of NRE rates de-regulation which could pull down the

    NIMs for the bank. Hence we maintain our Neutral stance on the stock.Key financials

    Particulars (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013ENII 791 1,022 1,136 1,286% chg 39.2 29.2 11.2 13.2

    Net profit 293 402 408 439% chg 25.1 37.3 1.6 7.5

    NIM (%) 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.5

    EPS (`) 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.8P/E (x) 8.8 6.6 6.5 6.1P/ABV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0

    RoA (%) 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8

    RoE (%) 18.5 21.6 18.7 17.5

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    NEUTRALCMP `23

    Target Price -

    Investment Period -

    Stock Info

    Sector Banking

    Market Cap (` cr) 2,591

    Beta 0.9

    52 Week High / Low 28/20

    Avg. Daily Volume 496,218

    Face Value (`) 1

    BSE Sensex 16,480

    Nifty 4,975

    Reuters Code SIBK.BO

    Bloomberg Code SIB@IN

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters -

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.6

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 49.2

    Indian Public / Others 43.2

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex (7.6) (11.1) 38.8

    SIB (14.4) 0.7 261.6

    Vaibhav Agrawal022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

    [email protected]

    Varun Varma022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

    [email protected]

    Sourabh Taparia022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872

    [email protected]

    South Indian BankPerformance Highlights

    4QFY2012 Result Update | Banking

    May 9, 2012

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

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    Exhibit 1:4QFY2012 performanceParticulars (` cr) 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy)Interest earned 994 944 5.3 704 41.2- on Advances / Bills 803 753 6.7 557 44.3- on investments 164 161 2.0 132 24.2

    - on balance with RBI & others 26 30 (11.2) 15 78.4

    Interest Expended 709 670 5.8 482 47.1Net Interest Income 285 273 4.1 222 28.4Other income 83 60 37.8 60 36.4Other income excl. treasury 74 54 35.5 47 57.8

    - Fee Income 67 47 44.8 41 62.4

    - Treasury Income 9 6 60.1 14 (35.5)

    - Others 6 8 (20.2) 5 20.4

    Operating income 367 333 10.1 282 30.1Operating expenses 204 154 32.2 129 58.3- Employee expenses 128 89 43.4 76 68.7

    - Other Opex 76 65 16.9 53 43.3

    Pre-provision Profit 163 179 (8.9) 153 6.4Provisions & Contingencies 12 22 (44.4) 26 (53.3)- Provisions for NPAs 14 3 390.4 (4) (458.4)

    - Provisions for Investments (10) 10 (208.2) 9 (215.7)

    - Provisions for Standard Assets 12 7 64.3 6 94.1

    - Other Provisions (3) 3 (221.8) 15 (120.6)

    PBT 151 157 (3.9) 127 18.9Provision for Tax 29 55 (47.3) 45 (36.1)PAT 122 102 19.3 82 49.1Effective Tax Rate (%) 19.1 34.8 (1572)bp 35.5 (1642)bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:4QFY2012 Actual vs. Angel estimatesParticulars (` cr) Actual Estimates % chgNet interest income 285 281 1.3

    Non-interest income 83 69 19.3

    Operating income 367 350 4.9Operating expenses 204 168 21.7

    Pre-prov. profit 163 182 (10.6)Provisions & cont. 12 26 (52.4)

    PBT 151 156 (3.7)

    Prov. for taxes 29 46 (37.0)

    PAT 122 111 10.0Source: Company, Angel Research

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

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    Exhibit 3:4QFY2012 performance analysisParticulars 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy)Balance sheetAdvances (`cr) 27,281 25,050 8.9 20,489 33.1Deposits (`cr) 36,501 33,834 7.9 29,721 22.8

    Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 74.7 74.0 70bp 68.9 580bp

    Current deposits (`cr) 1,262 1,222 3.3 1,201 5.1

    Saving deposits (`cr) 5,917 6,058 (2.3) 5,203 13.7

    CASA deposits (` cr) 7,179 7,280 (1.4) 6,404 12.1

    CASA ratio (%) 19.7 21.5 (185)bp 21.5 (188)bp

    CAR (%) 14.0 12.0 197bp 14.0 (1)bp

    Tier 1 CAR (%) 11.5 9.6 193bp 11.3 27bp

    Profitability Ratios (%)Cost of deposits# 7.9 7.8 17bp 6.6 137bp

    Yield on advances# 12.5 12.3 20bp 10.9 160bp

    Reported NIM# 3.1 3.1 5bp 3.1 4bp

    Cost-to-income ratio 55.6 46.3 929bp 45.7 989bp

    Asset qualityGross NPAs (` cr) 267 234 14.1 230 16.0

    Gross NPAs (%) 1.0 0.9 3bp 1.1 (14)bp

    Net NPAs (`cr) 77 58 31.6 60 27.5

    Net NPAs (%) 0.3 0.2 4bp 0.3 (1)bp

    Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 71.4 75.2 (382)bp 73.9 (258)bp

    Slippage ratio (%) 1.3 0.7 63bp 0.8 52bp

    Loan loss provision to avg. assets (%) 0.1 0.0 11bp (0.1) 20bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note# : On a cumulative basis

    Above industry growth during FY2012

    For FY2012, the banks business growth remained above industry levels, with

    advances growing by 33.1% yoy (8.9% qoq during 4QFY2012) and deposits

    growing by 22.8% yoy (7.9% qoq during 4QFY2012).

    The effect of de-regulation of NRE deposits (SIB increased its NRE term deposit

    rates from ~3-4% to 9.5% effective January 01, 2012) was visible during the

    quarter with `483cr of NRE term deposits re-pricing upwards and NRE saving bankdeposits declining by`355cr. The total high cost term deposits now currently stand

    at `1,035cr, which is expected to increase the total cost of funds by 15bp of

    average total assets during FY2013.

    As of 4QFY2012, the banks low cost NRE term deposits (which will be re-priced in

    the coming quarters) stands at `348cr, which after re-pricing is expected to

    increase the cost of funds by 5bp of ATA in FY2013. Also, low cost NRE savings

    deposits could see significant outflows going ahead as customers switchover to

    higher yielding term deposits (cost of 20bp of ATA considering worst case

    scenario).

    Considering erosion of low-cost advantage of these NRE deposits, we have

    factored in a margin compression of 25bp in FY2013 over FY2012.

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 9, 2012 4

    Exhibit 4:Movement in NRI deposit base sequentiallyDeposit type (` cr) 31-Mar-12 31-Dec-11NRE SB 1,358 1,693

    NRO SB 188 173

    FCNR (B) 411 459

    RFC 1 1

    LOW COST TERM DEPOSIT 348 831

    LOW COST NRI DEPOSIT (SUB TOTAL) 2,306 3,158HIGH COST NRE TERM DEPOSIT 1,036 -

    NRO TERM DEPOSIT 1,275 1,299

    TOTAL NRI DEPOSIT 4,617 4,457

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Growth in gold loan portfolio for the bank continued to be healthy, registering a

    4.6% increase on a sequential basis.Share of gold loans in the overall loan book

    as of 4QFY2012 stands at c.25%. The management indicated that they would like

    to maintain the gold loan portfolio at 25-26% levels of the overall loan book and

    hence would now increase focus on corporate segment as well to drive the banks

    loan book growth (guidance of ~23-24% growth for FY2013)

    The cost of deposits of the bank rose by 17bp qoq on back of higher costs due to

    NRE deposit rates de-regulation. However, the yield on advances of the bank rose

    by 20bp (aided by growth in high yielding gold loans), leading to NIMs rising by a

    marginal 5bp qoq to 3.1%

    Exhibit 5:Advances growth remains above system

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:CASA ratio drops further

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    6.8

    8.1

    5.4

    7.3

    8.9

    10.1

    6.4

    4.5

    2.4

    7.9

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Advances qoq growth (%,) Deposits qoq growth (%)

    21.5 21.5 21.3 21.5

    19.7

    12.0

    15.0

    18.0

    21.0

    24.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    (%)

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

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    Exhibit 7:Reported NIM rises by 5bp qoq....

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Cumulative reported numbers

    Exhibit 8:...due to rise in yield on advances

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Cumulative reported numbers

    Non-interest income growth driven by higher fee income

    The fee income of the bank reported a strong growth of 57.8% yoy during

    4QFY2012. The management attributed the healthy performance on the fee

    income front to successful launch of gold loan products, traction from ATM

    business and pick up in insurance business during FY2012. We have accordingly

    factored in a healthy fee income growth of 20% yoy each in FY2013 and FY2014.

    Exhibit 9:Break-up of non-interest incomeParticulars (` cr) 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy)Fee income 67 47 44.8 41 62.4Treasury gains 9 6 60.1 14 (35.5)

    Profit on exchange transactions 6 8 (20.5) 5 13.7

    Non-interest income 83 60 37.8 60 36.4Excluding treasury 74 54 35.5 47 57.8

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Asset quality remains healthy despite higher slippages

    The asset quality of the bank deteriorated slightly during 4QFY2012, with

    slippages increasing to `66cr (annualised slippage ratio of 1.3%) from a quarterly

    run-rate of ~`35cr. However, the rise in slippages during 4QFY2012 can beprimarily attributed to one chunky account (exposure of `50cr to Bharti shipyard).

    Consequently, the gross and net NPA levels of the bank increased by 14.1% and

    31.6% qoq, respectively. The provision coverage ratio decreased by `380bp

    during 4QFY2012 to 71.4% from 75.2% in 3QFY2012.

    The bank restructured ~`400cr worth of accounts (mostly towards Jodhpur and

    Jaipur discoms) during 4QFY2012, taking the total restructured book to `1,021cr.

    The management indicated that the Bharti shipyard account would be reversed

    from NPA book to restructured book in 1QFY2013 as it will be restructured

    through the CDR route. The bank does not have any major restructuring n pipeline

    currently.

    3.1

    2.8

    3.03.1 3.1

    2.5

    2.7

    2.9

    3.1

    3.3

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    (%)

    10.9

    11.812.1 12.3 12.5

    8.5

    9.5

    10.5

    11.5

    12.5

    13.5

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    (%)

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

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    Exhibit 10:NPA coverage drops sequentially

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:Slippages up for 4QFY2012

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 12:Opex to average asset trends

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 13:Cost to income ratio trends

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Healthy capital adequacy

    The banks capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stood at 14.0% as of 4QFY2012, with

    tier-I ratio at 11.5%. The banks risk weighted assets have come down due on a

    qoq basis due to reduction in the risk weightings being assigned to gold loans (The

    bank is assigning near zero risk weighting to its gold loans as compared to 25bp

    before after prior approval from RBI).

    Due to healthy growth in profit and benefits of near zero risk weightings on gold

    loans, the bank is planning to now raise only`400cr during FY2013 (as against

    the previously planned `1,000cr via QIP). The mode of capital raising will be

    decided at a later date by the management.

    230

    236

    231

    234

    267

    60

    63

    58

    58

    77

    73.9 73.1 74.775.2

    71.4

    55.0

    60.0

    65.0

    70.0

    75.0

    80.0

    -

    75

    150

    225

    300

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Gross NPAs (` cr) Net NPA ( cr) PCR (%, RHS)

    0.8 0.8

    0.50.7

    1.3

    -

    0.3

    0.6

    0.9

    1.2

    1.5

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    (%)

    1.6

    1.3

    1.6 1.6

    2.1

    -

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    (%)

    45.744.2

    46.7 46.3

    55.6

    30.0

    34.0

    38.0

    42.0

    46.0

    50.0

    54.0

    58.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    (%)

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 9, 2012 7

    Exhibit 14:Trends in CAR

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Investment arguments

    Strong business growth

    The bank grew its advances and deposits at a strong rate of 33.1% and 22.8%

    yoy, respectively, in FY2012. Gold loan portfolio of the bank has increased at an

    60% CAGR over FY200912. The gold loan portfolio (`6,800cr as of 4QFY2012)

    now constitutes c.25% of the overall loan book. The management indicated that

    they would like to maintain the gold loan portfolio at 25-26% levels of the overall

    loan book and hence would now increase focus on corporate segment as well to

    drive the banks loan book growth (guidance of ~23% growth for FY2013)

    The banks tier-1 ratio stands at a healthy 11.5% (healthy profit growth and

    benefits of near zero risk weighting on gold loans) as of 4QFY2012. The bank is

    planning to raise ~`400cr of equity capital during FY2013, which would further

    increase the banks tier-I ratio, enabling the bank to achieve its growth targets.

    NIMs likely to have peaked out

    SIBs NIMs have been healthy despite its relatively lower CASA deposits due toincreasing share of high-yielding gold loans. However, increasing competition in

    the gold loan space and entry of several players is likely to reduce the so-far

    above-average profitability of this segment going forward. Also, the RBIs recent

    move of deregulating interest rates on NRE deposits has diminished the

    competitive cost advantage of these deposits, in our view.

    The costs of funds for the bank are expected to increase going ahead on account

    of NRE deposit rates de-regulation. Already upwardly re-priced NRE term deposits

    of `1,036cr (cost of 15bp), low cost NRE term deposits of `348cr which will be re-

    priced in the coming few quarters (cost of 5bp) and outflow of NRE savings of

    `

    1,358cr into higher yielding term NRE deposits (cost of 20bp assuming worst casescenario) are expected to increase the total cost of funds by 40bp of ATA in

    FY2013.

    11.3 10.9 10.89.6

    11.5

    2.7 2.7 2.72.4

    2.5

    14.0

    13.5 13.5 12.0

    14.0

    -

    4.0

    8.0

    12.0

    16.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Tier-I CAR Tier-II CAR (%)

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

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    In this quarter the bank managed the NIM impact by increasing its yield on

    advances, however continuing to rely on this strategy going forward is likely to

    have asset quality implications. Eventually, either on account of decline in NIMs or

    increase in asset quality pressures, we expect downside risks to the banks ROAs.

    Outlook and valuation

    The banks foray into gold loans has yielded positive results and has led to

    sustainably higher NIMs. The banks asset quality has also held up pretty well

    inspite of the macro headwinds which have led to higher provisioning expenses for

    most banks. However, current valuations at 1.1x FY2014E ABV have factored in

    the positives in our view and are considerably above the valuations of small and

    mid-sized PSU banks which have similar fundamentals, even after factoring in the

    robust growth witnessed due to the sharp rise in gold loans. Also, we expect the

    banks cost of funds to increase going ahead on account of NRE rates de-

    regulation which could pull down the NIMs for the bank. Hence we maintain ourNeutral stance on the stock.Exhibit 15:Key assumptionsParticulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimatesFY2013 FY2014 FY2013 FY2014Credit growth 18.0 18.0 20.0 20.0

    Deposit growth 17.0 18.0 21.0 20.0

    CASA ratio 21.3 20.4 18.7 17.6

    NIMs 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5

    Other income growth 4.5 14.6 6.6 17.6

    Growth in staff expenses 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0

    Growth in other expenses 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0

    Slippages 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.3

    Coverage ratio 75.1 76.4 71.0 69.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 16:Change in estimatesParticulars (` cr) FY2013 FY2014Earlier

    estimatesRevised

    estimatesVar. (%) Earlier

    estimatesRevised

    estimatesVar. (%)

    NII 1,124 1,136 1.1 1,277 1,286 0.7Non-interest income 244 263 7.9 280 310 10.7

    Operating income 1,368 1,399 2.3 1,557 1,596 2.5Operating expenses 656 698 6.3 742 788 6.3

    Pre-prov. profit 711 701 (1.4) 815 807 (0.9)Provisions & cont. 98 97 (1.2) 156 158 1.2

    PBT 613 604 (1.4) 658 649 (1.4)

    Prov. for taxes 199 196 (1.4) 214 211 (1.4)

    PAT 414 408 (1.4) 445 439 (1.4)Source: Angel Research

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 9, 2012 10

    Exhibit 18:Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%) FY2014EP/ABV (x) FY2014ETgt P/ABV (x) FY2014EP/E (x) FY2012-14EEPS CAGR (%) FY2014ERoA (%) FY2014ERoE (%)AxisBk Buy 963 1,587 64.8 1.3 2.2 6.9 16.4 1.5 20.3

    FedBk Neutral 406 - - 1.0 - 7.1 13.0 1.3 14.5

    HDFCBk Accumulate 512 567 10.6 2.9 3.3 14.4 27.0 1.7 22.1

    ICICIBk* Buy 822 1,201 46.2 1.3 1.9 10.1 20.4 1.5 16.0

    SIB Neutral 23 - - 1.1 - 6.1 4.5 0.8 17.5YesBk Buy 320 470 46.7 1.6 2.4 7.7 22.5 1.4 23.3

    AllBk Accumulate 150 166 10.8 0.6 0.7 3.6 6.2 0.9 17.6

    AndhBk Accumulate 110 120 9.1 0.7 0.7 4.3 3.3 0.9 16.0

    BOB Buy 641 969 51.1 0.7 1.1 4.3 11.1 1.1 18.2

    BOI Buy 353 411 16.3 0.7 1.0 4.4 23.3 0.8 16.9

    BOM Buy 48 60 24.0 0.6 0.7 3.6 26.8 0.9 17.5

    CanBk Buy 407 532 30.7 0.7 0.9 4.3 10.9 0.9 16.7CentBk Neutral 78 - - 0.7 - 3.9 45.7 0.5 13.8

    CorpBk Buy 400 504 25.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 5.3 0.8 16.5

    DenaBk Buy 85 118 39.2 0.5 0.7 3.3 6.2 0.9 16.9

    IDBI# Buy 92 117 27.3 0.5 0.7 3.8 22.7 0.9 14.8

    IndBk Buy 194 240 23.7 0.7 0.8 4.0 5.4 1.2 18.2

    IOB Buy 82 101 23.1 0.5 0.6 3.8 28.3 0.6 13.9

    J&KBk Accumulate 856 932 8.9 0.8 0.8 4.4 8.8 1.4 18.6

    OBC Buy 218 285 31.0 0.5 0.6 3.4 27.7 0.8 14.3

    PNB Buy 768 1,138 48.1 0.7 1.1 4.3 8.8 1.1 18.5

    SBI* Buy 1,888 2,593 37.4 1.2 1.6 7.0 23.6 1.0 19.1

    SynBk Buy 92 128 40.3 0.5 0.8 3.3 8.7 0.8 17.1

    UcoBk Neutral 67 - - 0.7 - 4.7 7.0 0.5 13.4

    UnionBk Buy 203 266 31.2 0.7 0.9 4.1 27.2 0.8 17.4

    UtdBk Buy 59 88 48.4 0.4 0.7 2.7 11.4 0.7 15.9

    VijBk Neutral 54 - - 0.6 - 4.4 13.5 0.5 13.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

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    South Indian Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

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    Income statement

    Y/E March (` cr) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14ENet Interest Income 394 523 568 791 1,022 1,136 1,286- YoY Growth (%) 7.2 32.7 8.7 39.2 29.2 11.2 13.2

    Other Income 143 164 208 197 247 263 310- YoY Growth (%) 17.3 15.2 26.9 (5.6) 25.6 6.6 17.6

    Operating Income 537 687 777 988 1,269 1,399 1,596- YoY Growth (%) 9.7 28.0 13.0 27.2 28.5 10.3 14.1

    Operating Expenses 248 328 366 463 617 698 788- YoY Growth (%) 13.4 32.4 11.5 26.3 33.5 13.0 13.0

    Pre - Provision Profit 289 359 411 525 652 701 807- YoY Growth (%) 6.8 24.3 14.5 27.9 24.0 7.7 15.1

    Prov. and Cont. 57 57 43 80 79 97 158- YoY Growth (%) (54.0) 0.7 (24.5) 84.4 (0.7) 22.8 62.6

    Profit Before Tax 232 301 367 446 572 604 649- YoY Growth (%) 58.3 30.0 21.9 21.3 28.5 5.6 7.5

    Prov. for Taxation 80 107 134 153 171 196 211- as a % of PBT 34.6 35.4 36.4 34.3 29.8 32.4 32.4

    PAT 152 195 234 293 402 408 439- YoY Growth (%) 45.6 28.4 20.0 25.1 37.3 1.6 7.5

    Balance sheet

    Y/E March (` cr) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14EShare Capital 90 113 113 113 116 116 116

    Reserve & Surplus 1,071 1,191 1,372 1,734 2,054 2,374 2,719

    Deposits 15,156 18,092 23,012 29,721 36,501 44,166 52,999

    - Growth (%) 23.8 19.4 27.2 29.2 22.8 21.0 20.0

    Borrowings 28 257 1 25 31 38 45

    Tier 2 Capital 155 155 330 265 557 674 809

    Other Liab. & Prov. 590 571 706 962 1,111 1,318 1,608

    Total Liabilities 17,090 20,379 25,534 32,820 40,370 48,686 58,295Cash balances 974 998 1,391 1,828 1,572 1,767 2,120

    Bank balances 729 1,038 597 638 1,069 1,289 1,543

    Investments 4,572 6,075 7,156 8,924 9,400 11,629 13,833

    Advances 10,454 11,848 15,823 20,489 27,281 32,737 39,284

    - Growth (%) 32.0 13.3 33.6 29.5 33.1 20.0 20.0

    Fixed Assets 113 136 153 357 378 455 545

    Other Assets 249 284 415 585 671 810 970

    Total Assets 17,090 20,379 25,534 32,820 40,370 48,686 58,295- Growth (%) 25.2 19.2 25.3 28.5 23.0 20.6 19.7

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    Ratio Analysis

    Y/E March FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14EProfitability ratios (%)NIMs 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.5

    Cost to Income ratio 46.2 47.8 47.1 46.8 48.6 49.9 49.4

    RoA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8

    RoE 16.4 16.0 17.0 18.5 21.6 18.7 17.5

    B/S ratios (%)CASA ratio 24.1 23.8 23.1 21.5 19.7 18.7 17.6

    Credit/Deposit ratio 69.0 65.5 68.8 68.9 74.7 74.1 74.1

    Net worth/ Assets 16.6 15.4 16.7 18.4 19.7 20.4 21.3

    CAR 13.8 14.8 15.4 14.0 13.0 12.5 12.0

    - Tier I 12.1 13.2 12.4 11.3 10.1 9.7 9.3

    Asset Quality (%)Gross NPAs 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8

    Net NPAs 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

    Slippages 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3

    NPA prov / avg. assets 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

    Provision Coverage 82.0 48.4 70.8 73.9 71.4 71.0 69.2

    Per Share Data (`)EPS 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.8

    ABVPS (75% cover) 12.6 10.8 12.9 15.0 17.3 20.0 21.5

    DPS 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7

    Valuation RatiosPER (x) 13.9 13.5 11.3 9.0 6.8 6.7 6.2P/ABVPS (x) 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1

    Dividend Yield 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0

    DuPont AnalysisNII 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4

    (-) Prov. Exp. 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3

    Adj NII 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.1

    Treasury 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

    Int. Sens. Inc. 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.1

    Other Inc. 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

    Op. Inc. 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.7

    Opex 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5

    PBT 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2

    Taxes 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

    RoA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8Leverage 16.6 15.4 16.7 18.4 19.7 20.4 21.3

    RoE 16.4 16.0 17.0 18.5 21.6 18.7 17.5

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    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement South Indian Bank

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