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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
(` cr) 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy)Net revenue
305 250 22.1 324 (5.7)EBITDA 36 25 42.8 40 (11.6)
EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 10.0 170bp 12.5 (78)bp
Reported PAT 26 41 (35.5) 38 (30.5)Source: Company, Angel
Research
For 4QFY2012, NIIT reported modest performance, which was
in-line with our
expectations. Revenue growth was driven by all businesses, but
reported
operational performance was dented due to one-time pass through
revenue in
SLS business. The companys net debt currently stands at `6.7cr,
which is a
significant improvement over `313cr in FY2011 due to sale of
Element-K during
3QFY2012. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.Quarterly
highlights: For 4QFY2012, NIIT reported consolidated revenue
of`305cr, up 22.1% yoy. This revenue includes one-time pass through
revenue of
`48.2cr; excluding this, revenue came in at `257cr. Revenue from
ILS, SLS
(excluding one-time pass through) and CLS (excluding Element-K)
businesses
increased by 14%, 2% and 36% yoy, respectively. Blended EBITDA
margin of NIIT
declined by 78bp yoy to 11.7% due to margin decline in ILS and
SLS businesses.
EBITDA margin, excluding Element-K and pass through, came in at
13.9%.
Outlook and valuation:Management indicated that the ILS and CLS
businesseswould be the companys primary growth drivers going ahead.
In the ILS business,
the company has started setting up cloud campuses in FY2012 and
got 13,800enrollments in FY2012, which is healthy and promises
large and growing
opportunity in this area. CLS, which was heavily impacted by the
downturn, has
rebounded with respect to growth and NIIT was able to bag nine
deals in FY2012
from global MTS customers, with US$120mn revenue visibility over
the contract
period. In the SLS business, the company is witnessing traction
from private
schools and has added 687 schools in FY2012. Also, the companys
net debt
currently stands at `6.7cr, which is a significant improvement
over `313cr in
FY2011 due to sale of Element-K during 3QFY2012. Hence, we
expect the
company to post a PAT CAGR of 12.7% over FY2012-14E. We have
valued NIIT
on an SOTP basis, arriving at a target EV/EBITDA of 2.6x on
FY2014E
consolidated EBITDA of `197cr, arriving at a target price of
`52. We maintain ourBuy rating on the stock.Key financials
(Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
FY2014ENet sales 1199 1248 1260 1162 1304% chg 4.4 4.1 1.0 (7.8)
12.3
Net profit 70 92 110 117 145% chg 0.6 31.2 19.6 6.2 24.0
EBITDA margin (%) 13.1 12.8 11.7 14.8 15.1
EPS (`) 4.3 5.6 6.7 7.1 8.8P/E (x) 10.0 7.6 6.3 6.0 4.8
P/BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9
RoE (%) 13.9 16.5 17.8 16.7 18.4RoCE (%) 9.0 8.0 8.1 11.1
11.7
EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 5.3 4.2 3.0 2.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `42
Target Price `52
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 34.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 13.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs 24.3
Indian Public / Others 28.4
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex (7.5) (11.3) 38.3
NIIT Ltd. (3.9) (23.4) 35.8
216,420
4,966
NIIT.BO
NIIT@IN
700
0.7
60/34
98,122
Education
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (`cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (`
)BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Ankita Somani022-3935 7800 Ext: 6819
[email protected]
NIITPerformance Highlights
4QFY2012 Result Update | Education
May 10, 2012
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NIIT | 4QFY2012 Result Update
May 10, 2012 2
Exhibit 1:4QFY2012 performance
(` cr) 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) FY2012
FY2011 % chg (yoy)Net revenue 305 250 22.1 324 (5.7) 1,260 1,248
1.0Operating expenses 270 225 19.8 283 (4.9) 1,113 1,089 2.2EBITDA
36 25 42.8 40 (11.6) 147 159 (7.5)Depreciation 20 20 (1.5) 21 (7.9)
87 86 2.2
EBIT 16 5 220.0 19 (15.8) 60 74 (18.7)
Other income (7) 165 8 143 (18)
PBT 9 170 (94.5) 27 (64.9) 203 56 264.7
Income tax (5) 145 (103.4) 3 (288.5) 141 9 1,483.1
PAT 14 25 (43.7) 24 (40.6) 62 47 32.5Share of associates' net
profit 12 15 14 48 45
Reported PAT 26 41 (35.5) 38 (30.5) 110 92 19.6EPS (`) 1.6 2.5
(35.5) 2.3 (30.5) 6.7 5.6 19.8
EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 10.0 170bp 12.5 (78)bp 11.7 12.8
(106)bp
EBIT margin (%) 5.2 2.0 324bp 5.9 (63)bp 4.8 5.9 (115)bp
PAT margin (%) 8.8 9.8 (100)bp 11.4 (260)bp 7.8 7.5 36bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Modest revenue growth
For 4QFY2012, NIIT reported revenue of `305cr, up 22.1% yoy.
This revenue
includes one-time pass through revenue of `48.2cr; excluding
this, revenue came
in at `257cr. The school learning solutions (SLS) business
emerged as the primary
growth driver for the company and reported 131.3% yoy growth in
revenuebecause of one-time pass through revenue, which the company
got from one
government project it took up during the quarter. Revenue from
individual
learning solution (ILS) grew by 13.8% yoy, while revenue from
corporate learning
solutions (CLS) business declined by 56.5% yoy due to divestment
of Element-K in
October 2011.
Exhibit 2:Revenue growth (Segment wise, yoy)
Source: Company, Angel Research
13.98.3
13.8
(27.4)
16.5
131.3
(5.9)
9.5
(56.5)
(1.9)
9.8
(5.7)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
JFM10 JFM11 JFM12
(%)
ILS SLS CLS Consolidated
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NIIT | 4QFY2012 Result Update
May 10, 2012 3
Exhibit 3:Segment-wise revenue contribution
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Revenue performance (Segment wise)
(` cr) JFM 12 JFM 11 OND 11 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)ILS 152 134
133 13.8 14.7
SLS 87 37 37 131.3 135.1
CLS 66 153 81 (56.5) (17.5)
Source: Company, Angel Research
ILS: For 4QFY2012, revenue of the ILS business grew by 13.8% yoy
to `152cr, withglobal enrollments growing by 7.8% yoy to 1,47,760
and short-term programenrollments increasing by 25%. The pending
order book of this segment currently
stands at `156.4cr, with 70% of it being executable in the next
12 months. Also,
cloud campus (new initiative by NIIT) was implemented in over
340 centers, with
digital enrollments of Digital NIIT standing at 13,800. EBITDA
margin of this
segment declined by 226bp yoy to 16.9% due to cloud
campus-related expenses
and adverse product mix.
Exhibit 5:ILS Enrolment growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
41.9 41.349.9
10.9 11.6
28.3
47.2 47.1
21.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
JFM10 JFM11 JFM12
(%)
ILS SLS CLS
7.7
21.2
11.2
4.56.4
7.8
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
OND 10 JFM 11 AMJ11 JAS11 OND 11 JFM 12
(%)
Nos.
Enrollment yoy growth (%)
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NIIT | 4QFY2012 Result Update
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SLS: Revenue of the SLS business grew by 131.3% yoy to `87cr in
4QFY2012.During the quarter, the company added 258 private schools.
Revenue from
non-government schools grew by 24% yoy and now contributes 47%
to total SLS
revenue. The pending order book of this segment stands at`
612.2cr, with 30%being executable in the next 12 months. For
4QFY2012, EBITDA margin of the
business declined by 321bp yoy to 4.3%, but excluding the impact
of one-time
pass through revenue, EBITDA margin actually stood at ~10%.
Exhibit 6:Trend in private school addition in the SLS
segment
Source: Company, Angel Research
CLS: Revenue of the CLS business came in at `66cr, down 56.5%
qoq due todivestment of Element-K business. On a continuing basis,
revenue actually grew by
36% yoy. Volume growth during the quarter was strong at 23% yoy,
driven by
volume growth of 72% yoy in managed training services (MTS). The
company
closed nine global MTS deals during the year, of which four were
signed in
4QFY2012. Order intake during the quarter stood at US$56.2mn,
with the
pending order book standing at US$47.1mn, of which 60% is
executable over the
next 12 months. EBITDA margin of the CLS segment increased by
177bp qoq to
9.6% on account of strong traction from managed services
contacts.
Exhibit 7:Volume growth trend in CLS
Source: Company, Angel Research
35
196
173
133
123
258
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
OND 10 JFM 11 AMJ 11 JAS 11 OND 11 JFM 12
N
os
Private schools
15.3
13.0 12.0
21.0
14.0
19.0
23.0
0
10
20
30
JAS 10 OND 10 JFM 11 AMJ 11 JAS 11 OND 11 JFM 12
(%)
Volume growth (%)
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NIIT | 4QFY2012 Result Update
May 10, 2012 5
Consolidated margin declines: Blended EBITDA margin of NIIT
declined by 78bpyoy 11.7% on the back of margin decline in ILS as
well as SLS business. EBITDA
margin, excluding Element-K and pass through revenue, came in at
13.9%.
Exhibit 8:EBITDA margin (Segment wise)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
Management indicated that the ILS and CLS businesses would be
the companys
primary growth drivers going ahead. In the ILS business, the
company has started
setting up cloud campuses (online portal to expand its reach and
increase
efficiency) in FY2012 and has currently got 340 centers under
coverage. NIIT got13,800 enrollments in FY2012 for cloud campus,
which is healthy and promises
large and growing opportunity in this area. Also, the companys
recently started JV
with ICICI IFBI, which trains people for banking-related
courses, is also fuelling
growth and NIIT is now providing employees to large private
sector banks.
We expect ILS to continue its growth momentum of 14% yoy in
FY2013 and
FY2014.
CLS, which was heavily impacted by the downturn, has rebounded
with respect to
growth and has managed to bag a strong order book. Demand for
discretionary
services, including training outsourcing, learning products and
MTS, is gaining
traction. NIIT was able to bag nine deals in FY2012 from global
MTS customers,with US$120mn revenue visibility over the contract
period.
In the SLS business, the company is witnessing traction from
private schools and
has added 687 schools in FY2012. The companys solution nGuru
which
provides services of interactive classrooms, match lab and
school ERP, is gaining
growth traction.
NIIT is strategically moving towards turning asset-light by
targeting more
annuity-based revenue. Management aims to do so by being
selective in
government SLS contracts, which are highly capital-intensive and
have long debtor
cycles (thus impacting returns), targeting more private schools
in the SLS business.Also, annuity contracts bagged in CLS (related
to learning products and MTS) are
expected to accelerate revenue growth and improve margins. With
the realignment
of its focus, management expects to improve the companys
profitability and
21.019.1
16.9
23.1
7.5
4.3
10.1
7.99.6
16.1
12.5 11.7
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
JFM10 JFM11 JFM12
(%)
ILS SLS CLS Consolidated
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NIIT | 4QFY2012 Result Update
May 10, 2012 6
reduce debtor cycle. Also, the companys net debt currently
stands at `6.7cr, which
is a significant improvement over `313cr in FY2011 due to sale
of Element-K
during 3QFY2012. Hence, we expect the company to post a PAT CAGR
of 12.7%
over FY2012-14E.
We have valued NIIT on an SOTP basis, arriving at a target
EV/EBITDA of 2.6x onFY2014E consolidated EBITDA of `196.7cr,
arriving at a target price of `52.We maintain our Buy rating on the
stock.Exhibit 9:Segmental expectations
(` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014EILSRevenue 457 517
583 665 758
yoy growth (%) 7.4 9.5 12.9 14.0 14.0
EBITDA 83 95 92 126 146EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 18.4 15.8 19.0
19.3
SLSRevenue 200 148 204 229 251
yoy growth (%) 44.6 (26.0) 37.8 12.0 10.0
EBITDA 30 17 15 21 23
EBITDA margin (%) 14.8 11.4 7.2 9.0 9.0
CLSRevenue 542 584 473 268 295
yoy growth (%) (6.3) 7.6 (19.0) (43.3) 10.0
EBITDA 44 47 44 26 28
EBITDA margin (%) 8.1 8.1 9.2 9.5 9.5
ConsolidatedRevenue 1,199 1,248 1,260 1,162 1,304
yoy growth (%) 4.4 4.1 1.0 (7.8) 12.3
EBITDA 157 159 150 172 197
EBITDA margin (%) 13.1 12.8 11.9 14.8 15.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:One-year forward EV/EBITDA
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
(`
cr)
EV 16 13 9 6 3
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Exhibit 11:Valuation metric for NIIT (Based on FY2014E)
FY2014E (` cr) EBITDA Target EV/EBITDA (X) Target EVILS 146.0
3.0 438.1
SLS 22.6 1.5 33.9CLS 28.1 1.5 42.1
Target EV for NIIT 514.1Debt 115.0
Cash & Cash equivalent 203.3
Target Mcap for NIIT 602.4Value per share for NIIT (`) 36.6
Value due to NIIT TechnologiesCurrent price (`) 269.5
Holding discount 0.35
No. of shares held by NIIT (cr) 1.4
Value of held equity 249.3
Value per share of held equity 15.2
Target price for NIIT Ltd. 51.8Source: Company, Angel
Research
Exhibit 12:Recommendation summary
Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside FY2014E FY2014E FY2011-14E
FY2014E FY2014E(`) (`) (%) EBITDA (%) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
HCL Tech Accumulate 491 560 14.0 17.4 11.4 17.0 20.4 21.3
Hexaware Accumulate 121 128 6.0 18.6 11.3 55.0 24.9 22.4
Infosys Buy 2,348 2,792 18.9 30.6 13.5 13.4 22.8 20.8
Infotech Entp. Accumulate 166 177 6.7 16.6 8.9 13.9 16.9
13.2
KPIT Cummins Accumulate 102 114 11.4 14.8 9.0 0.2 18.0 18.7
Mahindra Satyam Buy 72 89 24.4 15.0 8.7 25.3 11.4 13.0
MindTree Neutral 584 - - 15.5 10.0 32.9 19.8 17.0
Mphasis Accumulate 387 433 12.0 17.9 9.4 1.7 14.1 13.7
NIIT^ Buy 42 52 43.7 15.1 4.8 16.3 11.7 18.4Persistent Neutral
363 - - 22.4 9.1 4.7 17.0 14.5
TCS Neutral 1,234 - - 28.7 17.4 16.8 28.8 27.7Tech Mahindra
Accumulate 657 750 14.1 15.7 7.6 20.8 12.9 18.0
Wipro Accumulate 407 430 5.5 19.9 14.2 9.7 13.9 18.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Valued on SOTP basis
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Profit and loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014ENet sales
1,199 1,248 1,260 1,162 1,304Operating expenses 1,043 1,089 1,113
990 1,108
EBITDA 157 159 147 172 197% of net sales 13.1 12.8 11.7 14.8
15.1
Dep. and amortization 75 86 87 81 91
% of net sales 6.3 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0
EBIT 82 74 60 91 106
% of net sales 6.8 5.9 4.8 7.8 8.1
Other income (33) (18) 143 0 13
Profit before tax 49 56 203 91 119
Provision for tax 11 9 141 31 41
% of PBT 22.2 16.0 69.5 34.4 34.4
PAT 38 47 62 60 78Share in profit of associates 32 45 48 57
67
Profit after minority interest 70 92 110 117 145EPS (`) 4.3 5.6
6.7 7.1 8.8
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Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014ECapital
employedEquity capital 33 33 33 33 33ESOP outstanding - - - - -
Reserves and surplus 463 517 585 656 745
Currency translation reserve 8 7 - 10 10
Net worth 504 557 618 699 788Secured loans 254 265 85 85 85
Unsecured loans 151 101 30 30 30
Total debt 405 366 115 115 115Minority interest 2 3 3 3 3
Total capital employed 911 925 736 817 906Capital deployedGross
block 814 877 777 827 877
Accumulated depreciation 322 397 485 566 656
Net block 492 480 293 262 221
Capital WIP 45 62 70 50 50
Total fixed assets 536 542 363 312 271Investments 127 164 100
100 100
Inventories 13 15 13 10 10
Sundry debtors 340 390 356 328 357
Cash at bank 62 53 100 203 312
Loans and advances 154 135 176 163 167
Other current assets 70 117 58 76 83
Sundry creditors 211 234 235 209 234
Other liabilities 168 243 188 167 199
Provisions 42 45 50 48 61
Net deferred tax assets 30 31 42 50 100
Miscellaneous expense - - - - -
Total capital deployed 911 925 736 817 906
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Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014EPre tax
profit from oper. 48 39 60 91 106
Depreciation 75 86 87 81 91Pre tax cash from oper. 123 125 148
172 197
Other inc./prior period ad (33) (18) 143 0 13
Net cash from operations 91 107 290 172 210
Tax 11 9 141 31 41
Share of profit from ass. 32 45 48 57 67
Cash profits 112 143 198 198 236(Inc)/dec in sundry debtors (50)
(49) 34 28 (30)
(Inc)/dec in current assets (26) (48) 59 (18) (7)
(Inc)/dec in inventories (3) (3) 2 3 -
(Inc)/dec in loans and adv. (4) 19 (41) 14 (4)
Inc/(dec) in sundry creditors (31) 24 0 (26) 25
Inc/(dec) in other current liab. (5) 78 (50) (23) 45
Net trade working capital (118) 20 5 (22) 29
Cash flow from oper. actv. (7) 163 203 176 265(Inc)/dec in fixed
assets (38) (91) 92 (30) (50)
(Inc)/dec in investments (21) (37) 64 - -
(Inc)/dec in deferred tax asset 5 (1) (12) (8) (50)
Cash flow from investing actv. (55) (129) 145 (38)
(100)Inc/(dec) in debt 56 (39) (251) - -
Inc/(dec) in equity/premium 17 17 (7) 10 -
Inc/(dec) in minority interest 2 1 - - -
Dividends 27 22 43 45 56
Cash flow from fin. activities 48 (43) (300) (35) (56)Cash
generated/(utilized) (13) (9) 47 103 109Cash at start of the year
75 62 53 100 203
Cash at end of the year 62 53 100 203 312
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NIIT | 4QFY2012 Result Update
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Key ratios
Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014EValuation ratio
(x)P/E (on FDEPS) 10.0 7.6 6.3 6.0 4.8P/CEPS 4.8 3.9 3.5 3.5
3.0
P/BVPS 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9
Dividend yield (%) 3.3 2.7 5.2 5.5 6.8
EV/Sales 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3
EV/EBITDA 5.8 5.3 4.2 3.0 2.0
EV/Total assets 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4
Per share data (`)EPS 4.3 5.6 6.7 7.1 8.8
Cash EPS 8.8 10.8 12.0 12.0 14.3
Dividend 1.4 1.2 2.2 2.3 2.9
Book value 30.6 33.8 37.5 42.5 47.9
Dupont analysisTax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.7
0.7
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 0.6 0.8 3.4 1.0 1.1
EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.4
Leverage ratio (assets/equity) 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.1
Operating ROE 7.5 8.4 10.0 8.6 9.9
Return ratios (%)RoCE (pre-tax) 9.0 8.0 8.1 11.1 11.7
Angel RoIC 12.1 11.4 12.9 19.6 23.8
RoE 13.9 16.5 17.8 16.7 18.4
Turnover ratios(x)Asset turnover (fixed assets) 2.2 2.3 3.5 3.7
4.8
Receivables days 96 107 103 103 100
Payable days 79 75 77 77 77
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NIIT | 4QFY2012 Result Update
May 10 2012 12
Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail:
[email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement NIIT Ltd
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the
stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral
(-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `lakh for Angel,
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