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SOUTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC FORECAST
2017
PRESENTED TO
BERKELEY CHAMBER OF COMMERCEJanuary 13, 2017
JANUARY 22, 2016
ByFrank A. RainwaterExecutive Director
South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office1000 Assembly Street
Rembert Dennis Building, Suite 402Columbia, SC 29201
(803) 734-2265www.rfa.sc.gov
2
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
FY 8
0FY
81
FY 8
2FY
83
FY 8
4FY
85
FY 8
6FY
87
FY 8
8FY
89
FY 9
0FY
91
FY 9
2FY
93
FY 9
4FY
95
FY 9
6FY
97
FY 9
8FY
99
FY 0
0FY
01
FY 0
2FY
03
FY 0
4FY
05
FY 0
6FY
07
FY 0
8FY
09
FY 1
0FY
11
FY 1
2FY
13
FY 1
4FY
15
FY 1
6FY
17
est
FY 1
8 es
tFY
19
est
FY 2
0 es
tFY
21
est
FY 2
2 es
tFY
23
est
FY 2
4 es
tFY
25
est
FY 2
6 es
t
SC PERSONAL INCOME FY GROWTH RATESActuals, Estimates, and Averages
10 Year AVG4.1%
20 Year AVG4.8%
30 Year AVG5.4%
Long Term EST4.75%
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis RFA – 173/lj/11/10/16 3
REMEMBER- 2007
* Peak before the Great Recession
4
2007 WORLD LEADERS
United States – George W. BushUnited Kingdom – Tony BlairFrance – Jacques ChiracGermany – Angela MerkelRussia – Vladimir Putin
5
2007 CULTURE
*Apple introduced the iPhone
*Jordin Sparks wins American Idol
*Drew Carey takes over for Bob Barker on The Price is Right
6
2007 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON
#1 – LSU
#5 – Ohio State
#21 – Clemson- Alabama (7-6)- Washington (4-9)
7
Federal
State and Local
($5,000,000)
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
Wag
es &
Sal
arie
s
Tran
sfer
Pay
men
ts
Divi
dend
s, In
tere
st,
& R
ents
Cons
truc
tion
Educ
atio
nan
d He
alth
Ser
vice
s
Fina
ncia
l Ser
vice
s
Info
rmat
ion
Serv
ices
Leisu
re a
nd H
ospi
talit
y
Man
ufac
turin
g
Prof
essio
nal
and
Busin
ess S
ervi
ces
Trad
e, T
rans
port
atio
n, a
nd U
tiliti
es
Min
ing
and
Logg
ing
Gov
ernm
ent
(Tho
usan
ds o
f Dol
lars
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted)
CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME COMPONENTSPre-Recession Peak versus to-Date (Quarterly)
Personal IncomeWages and Salaries by IndustryPersonal Income
Components
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - RFA - BW/LHJ 12/20/16 8
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
$0
$1-$
4,99
9
$5,0
00-$
9,99
9
$10,
000-
$19,
999
$20,
000-
$29,
999
$30,
000-
$39,
999
$40,
000-
$49,
999
$50,
000-
$59,
999
$60,
000-
$69,
999
$70,
000-
$79,
999
$80,
000-
$89,
999
$90,
000-
$99,
999
$100
,000
-$10
9,99
9
$110
,000
-$11
9,99
9
$120
,000
-$12
9,99
9
$130
,000
-$13
9,99
9
$140
,000
-$14
9,99
9
$150
,000
-$15
9,99
9
$160
,000
-$16
9,99
9
$170
,000
-$17
9,99
9
$180
,000
-$18
9,99
9
$190
,000
-$19
9,99
9
$200
,000
-$22
4,99
9
$225
,000
-$24
9,99
9
$250
,000
-$29
9,99
9
$300
,000
-$39
9,99
9
$400
,000
-$49
9,99
9
$500
,000
-$99
9,99
9
$1,0
00,0
00-$
1,99
9,99
9
$2,0
00,0
00 +
Num
ber o
f Ret
urns
SC INCOME TAX RETURNS BY FEDERAL ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME
All Single/Head of Household/Married Separate Returns All Married Joint Returns
Source: SC Individual income tax federal return sample of 87% inflated to total returns 174A – RFA/lhj/12/15/16 9
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$0
$1-$
4,99
9
$5,0
00-$
9,99
9
$10,
000-
$19,
999
$20,
000-
$29,
999
$30,
000-
$39,
999
$40,
000-
$49,
999
$50,
000-
$59,
999
$60,
000-
$69,
999
$70,
000-
$79,
999
$80,
000-
$89,
999
$90,
000-
$99,
999
$100
,000
-$10
9,99
9
$110
,000
-$11
9,99
9
$120
,000
-$12
9,99
9
$130
,000
-$13
9,99
9
$140
,000
-$14
9,99
9
$150
,000
-$15
9,99
9
$160
,000
-$16
9,99
9
$170
,000
-$17
9,99
9
$180
,000
-$18
9,99
9
$190
,000
-$19
9,99
9
$200
,000
-$22
4,99
9
$225
,000
-$24
9,99
9
$250
,000
-$29
9,99
9
$300
,000
-$39
9,99
9
$400
,000
-$49
9,99
9
$500
,000
-$99
9,99
9
$1,0
00,0
00-$
1,99
9,99
9
$2,0
00,0
00 +
Tota
l Fed
eral
Adj
uste
d Gr
oss I
ncom
e(M
illio
ns o
f Dol
lars
)TOTAL SC FEDERAL ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME BY FILING STATUS
All Single/Head of Household/Married Separate Returns All Married Joint Returns
Source: SC Individual income tax federal return sample of 87%; Nonresident income adjusted to reflect only SC taxable portion 174B – RFA/lhj/12/15/16 10
(40,000)
(30,000)
(20,000)
(10,000)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Cons
truc
tion
Educ
atio
nan
d He
alth
Ser
vice
s
Fina
ncia
l Ser
vice
s
Info
rmat
ion
Serv
ices
Leisu
re a
nd H
ospi
talit
y
Man
ufac
turin
g
Prof
essio
nal
and
Busin
ess S
ervi
ces
Trad
e, T
rans
port
atio
n, a
nd U
tiliti
es
Min
ing
and
Logg
ing
Gov
ernm
ent
Chan
ges i
n Em
ploy
men
t Lev
elCHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT LEVEL BY INDUSTRY
Pre-Recession Peak versus to-Date
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics RFA/BW/11/01/16 11
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
The Great Recession The 1990-91 Recession The 1981-82 Recession
Chan
ge in
Tota
l Em
ploy
men
t CHANGE IN TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
Over a 106-Month Period Since Pre-Recession Peak
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics RFA/BW/11/01/16 12
Source: SC Department of Commerce 13
Appropriations, $7,580$7,477
Debt Service Reduction, $85
Homestead Exemption Reduction,
$17Revenue Growth , $307
Tax Relief Trust Fund, $578
Tax Relief Trust Fund, $584
$6,800
$7,000
$7,200
$7,400
$7,600
$7,800
$8,000
$8,200
$8,400
$8,600
FY 16-17 FY 17-18
(Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs)
GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS AND REVENUEFY 16-17 and FY 17-18
4.0% GF Appropriation Growth
FY 18 Base Appropriations
3.8% Gross GF Revenue Growth
Source: RFA, JCS, 12/16/2016 14
Source: RFA, JCS, 1/4/2017
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
$8,500
$9,000
$9,500
$10,000
$10,500
FY 16-17 FY 17-18
(Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs)
FY 16-17 AND FY 17-18 REVENUE
Contingency Reserve Fund FY 17 $87M, FY 18 $0 Prior Year End Surplus FY 17 $230M, FY 18 $0
Lapsed Appropriations and Litigation Recovery FY 17 $172M, FY 18 $6.5M Capital Reserve Fund FY 17 $131 M, FY 18 $139M
Tobacco MSA FY 17 $70M, FY18 $70M Cigarette Surtax FY 17 $132.3M, FY 18 $131M
Lottery FY 17 $435.6M, FY 18 $401M EIA FY 17 $752M, FY 18 $791M
Gross General Fund, FY 17 $8,158M, FY 18 $8,471M
Recurring
Non-Recurring
($156.5M) Difference
15
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
$3,200
Distribution toSubdivisions
Employee Salaryand Benefits
Case services Other OperatingExpenses
Special Items Debt Service
(Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs)
FY 17 GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS BY MAJOR BUDGET CATEGORY
40%
25%
17%
9%
6%
3%
Source: RFA, JCS, 12/15/2016 16
Source: RFA, JCS, 12/15/2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%FY
90
FY 9
1
FY 9
2
FY 9
3
FY 9
4
FY 9
5
FY 9
6
FY 9
7
FY 9
8
FY 9
9
FY 0
0
FY 0
1
FY 0
2
FY 0
3
FY 0
4
FY 0
5
FY 0
6
FY 0
7
FY 0
8
FY 0
9
FY 1
0
FY 1
1
FY 1
2
FY 1
3
FY 1
4
FY 1
5
FY 1
6
FY 1
7
GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS BY MAJOR CATEGORY,Percent of Total FY 90 to FY 17
Personal Services Other Operating Expenses Special Items
Debt Service Case services Distribution to Subdivisions
Employer Contributions
17
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
FY 90 FY 17 (Inflation Adjusted) FY 17 (Nominal)
(Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs)
APPROPRIATIONS BY MAJOR BUDGET CATEGORYFY 90 Actual, FY 17 Inflation Adjusted and FY 17 Actual
Distribution to Subdivisions Personal Services Case services Other Operating Expenses
Employer Contributions Special Items Debt Service
Source: RFA, JCS, 12/15/2016 18
19
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annu
al P
erce
ntag
e Ch
ange
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME
BERKELEY COUNTY
Personal Income (thousands of $)
Five-year average: 5.98%
Ten-year average: 5.93%
SC Five-year average: 4.71%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis/BW 20
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annu
al P
erce
ntag
e Ch
ange
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
BERKELEY COUNTY
Total Employment
Five-year average: 3.66%
Ten-year average: 2.85%
SC Five-year average: 2.24%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis/BW 21
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annu
al P
erce
ntag
e Ch
ange
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN POPULATION
BERKELEY COUNTY
Population
Five-year average: 2.54%
Ten-year average: 2.83%
SC Five-year average: 1.10%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis/BW 22
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annu
al P
erce
ntag
e Ch
ange
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN 135-DAY ADM BERKELEY COUNTY
135-day ADM
Five-year average: 2.66%
Ten-year average: 1.89%
SC Five-year average: 0.83%
Source: SC Revenue & Fiscal Affairs Office/BW 23
24
25
1980
2010
Goose Creek SC
Moncks Corner SC
1960
Gippy Dike Rd
3rd
St
Wappaoolah Rd
Tank
Rd
Mayfield Dr
8th
St
9th
St12
th S
t
14th
St
Young Ave
Vandross Rd
Treehouse Rd
Mel
lard
Dr
Wyn Way
Ayers Dr
3rd Ave
Loma Ln
Big
Cre
ekD
r
Dupree Ln
Hammer Ln
Tony Ln
Den
nis
Dr
Old
Hig
hway
52
Wap
paoo
lah
Rd
Estimated Population Center Map for Berkeley County from 1960 to 2010
Streets
Census Place
Legend
26
FORECASTS - 2017
• January 28 – Chinese New Year (Year of the Rooster)• June 10 – 2017 World Expo will open in Astana, Kazakhstan• August 21 – Total Solar Eclipse (Visit Columbia)
• September 15 - Spacecraft Cassini-Huygens, after having studied Saturn for 13 years, will be disposed of by plunging into Saturn's atmosphere
• October 26 – Release of JFK Assassination Records• December – SC population surpasses 5 million
27
28