Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Managementa123.g.akamai.net/7/123/11558/abc123/forestservic...Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 1 Summary

United States Department of Agriculture

Forest Service

Southwestern Region

Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management

Questa Ranger District Carson National Forest

Prepared by: __/s/ Jack D. Carpenter____ September 5, 2011______

JACK D. CARPENTER Natural Resource Planner/IDT Leader for Travel Management

Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 1

Summary There are immeasurable economic effects by managing the transportation system (road and trails open to public use) of the Questa Ranger district. The economic center of the entire study area is Taos, New Mexico outside the boundaries of the Carson National Forest. Within the study area two communities, Questa and Red River have distinct economic bases. Economic models work better at a larger landscape level rather than at a small more isolated community level. Neither Questa nor Red River have diverse economies allowing resilience in tough economic times. Each of these communities is forced to focus on the known strengths such as tourism or the mining industry. Changes in the known strength sectors could lead to increased tensions within the local economy resulting in a stagnant economy. The small change, 15 miles of road and trail added and 15 miles of road and trail removed in alternative 1, for example, does not show a measurable change in the economic structure of the either of the communities. A change in the hundreds of miles of added or removed roads and trails for public use would likely show an increase or decrease in economic measures at the local level. The changes at the study are level would likely show no change in economic measures due to size of the larger economy.

The social aspects may be changed by management of the transportation system. For example, the location of fuelwood collection areas may change necessitating changes in retrieval of the fuelwood resource. The number of homes using wood for fuel is larger percentagewise than the United States. The changes in the transportation do not preclude obtaining fuelwood. There is no impact other than a possible restriction in timing and change of locations for the removal of fuelwood. Fuelwood permits would still be issued to requestors. Roads and trails would still be available for use by the recreating public, outfitter guides, and permittees. The Questa community is more tied to use of the national forest and private lands to produce needed products such as wood resources, plant resources (medicinal for example), and local family recreation including hunting. The Red River community is more tied to the use of national forest lands to provide opportunities for tourists to travel within the national forest and provide services for the tourists.

Economics

Social/Economic Analysis Study Area

The study area for the social analysis is the Questa Ranger district which lies in Taos County. Economic data is readily available at the country level with some data available at the zip code level. Where possible economic data for communities within or adjacent to the district will be displayed. Comparison with state and national data will be displayed. The Questa travel management area data comprises several communities from Taos, New Mexico north to the Colorado state line, east and west roughly the Rio Grande on the west and the county line on the east. Communities within this analysis include Amalia, Costilla, Questa, Red River, Lama, San Cristobal and Taos, New Mexico. Several of these communities are unincorporated such as Lama, Costilla, and San Crisobal; others are incorporated such as Questa and Red River. The communities are limited in population with estimated resident population of Red River of approximately 520, Questa approximately 2,700, Other local communities near the Questa Ranger District include Costilla, Amalia, La Lama and San Cristobal The majority of these small communities contain few local stores and other infrastructure. The larger communities such as Questa and Red River contain local community stores and increased infrastructure such as water and sewer systems. Taos is the nearest community with larger chain stores, and increased

2 Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

infrastructure. The smaller communities tend to be rural and dependent on the larger nearby communities such as Taos, New Mexico or Alamosa, Colorado.

The study area data compares Census data from 2000 and 2010 where available Some of the data sources include the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, state and local governing bodies, and non government organizations.

The communities within the study area have varying economic bases with ranching/farming being a predominate use in many and others based on tourism. Others depend heavily on mining which fluctuates due to market conditions beyond the state and even national level. The majority of the communities are rural in nature with limited diversity in the economic structure.

Models Available

Several computer models are available to convert raw economic/employment information into comparisons more visually understood. The raw data consists of tables of numbers, comparison charts, and graphs. Economic data is generally collected at the county level. Community wide data is sometimes available at the zip code level. The smaller the geographic area the data usability becomes suspect or easily identifiable to specific individuals or businesses. Models often combine similar industries to prevent this identification. Governmental data follows definitions which preclude identification of specific industries and or individuals in the economic spectrum of the data collection area. These are known limitations in the models.

Economic Profile System Community (EPSC)

The Economic Profile System Community (EPSC) is designed to allow users to automatically and efficiently produce detailed socioeconomic profiles at a variety of geographic scales, county, state, and national, using the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Databases used for EPSC profiles are obtained from the Bureau of the Census.

Profiles contain tables and figures that illustrate long-term trends in population; employment and personal income by industry; average earnings; business development; retirement and other non-labor income; commuting patterns; agriculture; and earnings by industry.

ESPC was developed in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management by the Sonoran Institute, and continues to be refined and improved under the auspices of Headwaters Economics as contracted by the several government agencies which includes the Forest Service. This model and the following model have been combined into a single model. The new model, EPC-HDT is available through Headwaters Economics (http://www.headwaterseconomics.org/).

This model was not used due to the difficulty in combining/aggregating data to produce a meaningful analysis. The data was compared on a county to county basis with the EPS data. The use of data collected nearly a decade past while more recent data is available can give skewed results. Model profiles constructed with this data are included in the project record for comparison purposes.

Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 21

Economic Profile System (EPS)

The economic profile system (EPS) was designed to allow users to produce detailed socioeconomic profiles automatically and efficiently at a variety of geographic scales, county, state, geographic areas, national, using the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel.

Profiles contain tables and figures that illustrate long-term trends in population; employment and personal income by industry; average earnings; business development; retirement and other non-labor income; commuting patterns; agriculture; and earnings by industry.

Databases used for EPS profiles are from: Bureau of the Census including County Business Patterns; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

EPS was developed in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management the Sonoran Institute and continues to be refined and improved under the auspices, Headwaters Economics as contracted by the several government agencies which includes the Forest Service. This model and the above model have been combined into a single model. The new model, EPC-HDT is available throught Headwaters Economics (http://www.headwaterseconomics.org/).

IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning)

It has long been recognized that even localized economic, socio-political, or resource management changes can have widespread ripple effects on a region's employment, production, income, and natural resource base. "IMPLAN", short for IMpact analysis for PLANning, is one of the analysis tools. It is designed to assist the analyst in tracing these ripple effects through an affected region. The IMPLAN system consists of:

A rich database of socio-economic information,

Software which constructs a model of an economy delineated by U.S., county, and/or zip code boundaries, and

An analysis program that estimates the impacts of projects, programs, policies, and economic changes on a region.

Features of IMPLAN include:

Detailed reports on a model region can be produced describing trade, production, consumption, taxes, welfare and social security payments, savings and investment, debt, employment, and income.

A flexible analysis scale. Model scale can vary anywhere from the level of a community up to the nation as a whole.

Complex economic interactions are clearly modeled and reported.

Multifaceted economic impacts can be modeled efficiently and inexpensively. This facilitates with- or without analysis, and the comparison of alternatives.

The modeling process is flexible. Data, production functions, and trade relationships can all be edited by the analyst.

The outputs from IMPLAN are often difficult to understand and interpret. The size of the inputs and outputs generally run in the millions of dollars and tens of thousands of items. Use in a small area may exaggerate or simple not show any change from the current levels.


The IMPLAN model is used for regional/forest level estimations. The travel management analysis process does not lend itself to use of this model. The lack of industrial output (conversion of raw materials), the rural character of the area, and centralized location of larger population centers with larger more established infrastructure skews the results. Chamber of commerce data was collected where possible. This data was then compared to a sample IMPLAN model run. The model results indicated the ranger district involved and the local communities within or adjacent to the boundaries would not show any economic changes.

QuickSilver (An Application for Economic Efficiency Analysis)

Quick-Silver is a fast, flexible program for financial and economic analysis of resource management and capital investment projects. It provides a convenient and consistent way to figure the dollars and cents criteria needed to determine if one management action costs less or has a better payoff than another. Quick-Silver helps standardize economic analysis methods through sharing of project files and a comprehensive set of user-defined management activities so that the same costs and benefits can be used for similar projects.

While Quick-Silver doesn't project the consequences of management -- timber yields or other forest outputs -- users have plenty of flexibility to build project alternatives by including costs, revenues, and non-market benefits that occur now and are expected in the future. Once all the project alternatives and their costs, revenues, and benefits are defined, Quick-Silver takes over to calculate a variety of financial and economic measures, such as:

Present Net Value (PNV)

Net Annual Equivalent (NAE)

Annual Cash flows

Since 1984, Quick-Silver has been used by private industry, consulting foresters, and government agencies to analyzed projects and programs.

Economic Impact Decision Support System (DSS), Version 2.0.1 (Central Oregon Recreation Services, CORS)

This model was developed to estimate the economic impact of outdoor recreation visits and associated expenditures. This model uses the Forest Service National Visitor Use Monitoring results. In the case of the Carson national forest the first round results are used. The model is a forestwide model and has some difficulty at smaller scales. The model does not go below the ranger district due to the input data. The model inputs can be adjusted to account for differences based on local knowledge of the recreational opportunities. The model does not account for areas lacking recreational facilities or communities lacking support facilities. Nor does the model adequately include costs of area recreational opportunities. Model outputs are in the project record

New Mexico Gross Receipt Tax

The gross receipt tax collected in the incorporated communities was used when readily available. The business categories amounts were converted to percentage of receipts for the month. These percentages were graphed to display the economic sectors of the local economy. The available data is included in the project record.


Models Used

This analysis looked at each of the above models and interfaces. The IMPLAN model was chosen as the best model to represent the study area. This model permits aggregation of data, and individualized data by state, county, and zip code.. The model outputs are included as appendices to this report.

IMPLAN

The IMPLAN model is used for regional/forest level estimations. The travel analysis process does not lend itself to use of this model. The lack of industrial output (conversion of raw materials), the rural character of the area, and centralized location of larger population centers with larger more established infrastructure skews the results. Chamber of commerce data was collected where possible. This data was then compared to a sample IMPLAN model run. The model results indicated the ranger district involved and the local communities within or adjacent to the boundaries would not show any economic changes.

DSS (CORS)

This model gives estimated at a forest scale. This model does not easily lend itself to use at a district level. The input data is at the forest level Where possible a district area can be modeled if the recreational activity breakdown versus the forest level is known. An example would be ski area located on one district within the forest. All ski area activities could be attributed to the single district. A series of model runs are included in the project record for the analysis area. Differences between alternatives are small. This model used data collected by the Forest Service. This model examines the data from the Forest Service and does not look at information at the community level data as does robust models such as IMPLAN.

New Mexico Gross Receipts Tax

This model effort to graph the different sectors of the local economy gives a visual picture of the Red River economy. Areas lacking a manufacturing sector often on based on an economy more dependent on influences from outside the locality. See attached charts in Appendix A.

Demographics

Table 1 provides a summary of population information for the United States, New Mexico, Taos County, and some local communities. The table indicates the population of some local areas. For example, Taos County’s population in 1990 was nearly 23,000 and has increased to over 31,000 in 2009. Normally data releases are behind about 2 to 3 years. The combined data show the county population growth at about the same as state growth, while the community data show an overall increase in population. Population growth is not uniform across the county or particular communities.


Table 1. Population data for study area, New Mexico, and United States from 1990 to 2009

Area 1990 2000 2009 Average Annual

Growth 1990 to 2009(percent)

Red River, NM 387 484 5131 1.3

Questa, NM 1,707 1,864 1,900 0.5

Taos County 23,118 29,979 31,507 1.4

New Mexico 1,515,069 1,819,046 2,009,671 1.3

United States 248,709,873 281,421,906 307,006,550 1.0

Source: US Census American Factfinder 2010

Housing

A summary of housing and vacancy rates in 2000 for the study area, the state, and the nation is provided in Table 2. The data indicates housing units available in the study area. The data indicates available housing units above the state and nearly twice the national levels.

Table 2. Housing and Vacancy Rate, 2000

Area Housing Units Housing Vacancy

Rate

Red River, NM 880 74.4

Questa, NM 888 17.6

Taos County 17,404 27.2

New Mexico 780,579 13.1

United States 115,904,641 9.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Income Change 1970 to 2006

The income levels of the study area have increased over time. Using 1970 as a base year with a value of 100 (does not equal actual income) and comparing the change over time against the 1970 level, Table 3 shows an increase of nearly 3.5 times the income levels in 1970. This roughly equates to a per capita income level of $26,000. The income levels have increased over time. The recent downturn in the economy is not shown, as data collection has not been completed. The data should be available in the next 2 to 3 years. In summary, the income levels have grown in the

1 The Town of Red River receives a high number of visitors during the winter and summer; therefore, seasonal populations can substantially increase from these figures for year-round residents.


aggregated area about 3.5 times, with the majority of the growth at the county level, primarily Taos County. However, data are not readily available for the Red River and Questa communities. In 2000, the last data (USCB 2000) collected from these communities show the per capita income in Red River, NM to be $17,883 and in Questa, NM to be $13,393. Using the increase for Taos County from 2000 to 2006, a rough estimate is per capita income increased to $25,420 and $19,039, respectively.

Table 3. Income growth since 1970 (index year)

Area Income Growth Compared to 1970 (index level of 100)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2006

Taos County 100 147 204 306 435

New Mexico 100 157 206 278 343

United States 100 130 173 228 254

Source: Economic Profile System 2008

Aggregate County Wages and Employment

Table 4 gives a snapshot of Taos County’s industry sector and employment levels as a percentage of total employment in 2006. The data indicate nearly 66 percent of the employment is located in the service sector, while about 14 percent is in the goods producing (e.g., manufacturing) sector. The long term implication is the money coming into the localized economy leaves the local area fairly quickly. This is not to say the monies do not circulate within the economy, but many of the needs (supplies) for a service sector based economy are purchased outside the area (money migrates out), which gives an indication of the local economy. The majority of jobs are located in the population centers and not within the boundaries of the Questa Ranger District. Estimates from the New Mexico gross receipts for Red River indicate about 180 to 244 returns for gross receipts taxes, with an average of 213 for 26 different months from 2008 to 2010. Using the 2000 Census data, an estimate of a little over 400 individuals are either business owners or employees of local businesses or government agencies.

Table 4. Aggregated county employment in 2006

Employment Percent of Total

Total private and public 11,218 100

Total private 9,022 80

Goods Producing 1,600 14

Natural resources and mining 413 4

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 16 0

Mining 397 4

Construction 1,054 9

Manufacturing (incl. forest products) 133 1


Employment Percent of Total

Service Providing 7,423 66

Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,698 15

Information 139 1

Financial activities 496 4

Professional and business services 495 4

Education and health services 1,653 15

Leisure and hospitality 2,579 23

Other services 358 3

Unclassified 4 0.04

Total Public 2,195 20

Federal government 305 3

State government 316 3

Local government 1,574 14

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

Table 5 displays changes in employment in the top 10 industries of Taos County. The data indicate a small downturn in employment of about 2 percent from 2007 to 2008. This coincides with an upturn in fuel prices, which is beyond the control of the local area. The data also indicate an economy dependant on outside incomes from visitors or tourists, as many business sectors are non-manufacturing sectors. The overall decline in employment was not accountable to travel management on NFS lands. The transportation system on the Carson National Forest was the same in time period of the data. Employment fluctuates based on income to businesses and the expected financial future.

Table 5. Change in employment from 2007 to 2008 in top 10 industries of Taos County

Description Employment

Total change in county (426)

Retail stores - miscellaneous (35)

Food services and drinking places (57)

Retail nonstores - direct and electronic sales (16)

* Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) (188)

* Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, non-education) 233

Retail stores - food and beverage 3

Hotels and motels, including casino hotels 1

Real estate establishments (114)

Mining gold, silver, and other metal ore 358


Description Employment

Construction of new nonresidential commercial and health care structures 33

Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners (17)

Total change of top 10 industries in 2008 from 2007 (178)

Economic Effects

Direct

The economy of the study area, Taos County, New Mexico, is driven by the larger population centers such as Taos. Questa, Red River, and Taos Ski Valley are important economic centers within the study area but are dwarfed by the population and economic power of the Taos, New Mexico area. Red River has an aggressive Chamber of Commerce working to bring visitors to the community throughout the year with many activities showcasing the community. The Red River economy is driven by the service sector. The service sector depends heavily on incoming monies from outside the local area. Taos and Questa benefit from Red River activities since many access the Red River area from the south and the west.. Red River has businesses using the forest lands under special use permits during the summer and winter months. Some roads on the Questa ranger district are built to a high standard with gravel surfacing giving a 3 season road; others have native surfaces giving a fair weather road and are difficult to travel. The following tables give information concerning differences in mileage open to public travel using the existing condition and the proposed action alternatives.

The information below shows the changes in proportion to the total currently existing system. Motorized trail changes range from no change to additions of 6 miles. The roads open to public travel change from the current 214 to an additional 5 miles or loss of up to 28 miles. The changes indicated are percentagewise of the existing system in the range of an increase of 2 percent to a decrease of 13 percent. The proposed decreases include road mileages that have already been closed but due to a change in reporting are included now. These types of changes in actuality are no real change to the transportation system except in a database (paper change)The proposed changes are spread across the entire district. The information noted in the tables below indicates no direct measurable effects to the regional nor the Red River economy due to proposed changes in the transportation system on the Questa ranger district.

Table 6. Mileage changes for Questa Ranger District by alternative

Item Existing

Condition

Alternative 1 (proposed

action)

Alternative 2 (motorized)

Alternative 3 (non motorized)

Miles of existing roadbed (level1) converted to motorized trail 50” and less in width

23.2

28.2

25.2

18.8

Approx. total 158 158 169 124


Item Existing

Condition

Alternative 1 (proposed

action)

Alternative 2 (motorized)

Alternative 3 (non motorized)

miles of transportation system on NFS lands (rounded)

Recreation and Tourism

The economy of the study area, Taos County, New Mexico, is driven by the larger population center. Questa, Red River, and Taos Ski Valley are important economic centers within the study area, but are dwarfed by the population and economic power of the Taos area. Red River has an aggressive Chamber of Commerce working to bring visitors to the community throughout the year, with many activities showcasing the community. Since Red River is surrounded by the Carson National Forest, many of the visitors who come during the summer recreate on the national forest. Visitors, as well as, local residents, drive their motor vehicles along NFS roads and trails to sightsee, camp, access fishing areas and wilderness trailheads, or just to be outdoors.

The Town of Red River’s website (http://www.redriver.org/summer) includes a list provided by the Forest Service of roads and trails on the Questa Ranger District open to jeeps, ATVs, and motorcycles. The website also offers a list of eight businesses that rent jeeps or ATVs or provide jeep tours associated with using the national forest. Four of the Red River businesses (e.g., ATV/Jeep rentals, outfitter/guides) have special use permits authorizing them to use NFS roads and trails to generate income.

A list on the website, entitled “What to Do In and Around Red River, NM,” identifies 36 summer activities. Most of the activities require the use of public highways to access various locations around Red River, Questa, Taos, Eagle Nest, Cimarron, Angel Fire, and Costilla. Red River is the “hub”, where many sites and events can be easily accessed. The first bullet states, “Go Hiking and [mountain] biking on one of the many Carson National Forest trails.” Further down the list are:

take an ATV tour to Greenie Peak or Bobcat Pass

rent a jeep and tour high mountain 4x4 trails

take a guided jeep tour to see the area and learn about Red River history

The Red River economy is driven by the retail trade, accommodation and food service, and the construction sectors (appendix A and C). The retail trade and accommodation and food service sector depend on incoming monies from outside the local area. Taos and Questa benefit from Red River activities, since many visitors access the Red River area from the south and the west.

The Town is concerned the changes to the Questa RD’s transportation system may limit or negatively impact local businesses or its visitors who are attracted to Red River because of its easy access to the national forest. After the first 30-day comment period for the Questa RD’s proposed action (7/16/2009), the Town issued Resolution 2009-16, “A Resolution for Transportation Management, Carson National Forest on the Questa Ranger District” (8/31/2009). The resolution includes, “the Town recognizes the need and endorses responsible recreation use


in the Carson National Forest.” The resolution recommended alternative 2, with changes. The changes were included in the resolution. Since the Town of Red River promotes a number of roads and trails open to motor vehicle use on the Carson National Forest as a part of its marketing, the effects analysis described in the Recreation section (“Motorized Recreation in the Red River Area”) and the table in Appendix B of this report addresses how each alternative would affect these roads and trails.

Under all the alternatives would not change the vast majority of the existing roads and trails on the Questa Ranger District (Table 7). The alternatives would affect motorized access to NFS lands in local areas, but would not prevent motor vehicle users from recreating, gathering forest products, or accessing traditional areas of cultural or spiritual significance. The specific effects of each alternative on recreation, traditional uses, and cultural resources are discussed in more detail in specific sections of chapter 3. Middle Fork Lake Road has been closed to vehicular traffic since April 2004. There would be no discernable effects in the gross receipts tax tables from keeping the road closed to motor vehicle use in alternatives 1 and 3.

None of the alternatives would create a noticeable change in traffic volume on NFS roads and trails on Questa Ranger District roads. Motor vehicle use would still be heaviest between Memorial Day and Labor Day to access certain areas for sightseeing, viewing wildlife, camping, hiking, horseback riding, picnicking, family reunions, off-highway vehicle use, and recreational fishing. Non-commercial activities such as gathering firewood, digging up seedlings and saplings, collecting plants, or for other forest product uses would still occur under any alternative and roads would continue to be used by hunters during turkey (April-May) and deer and elk (September-December) hunting seasons and to cut a Christmas tree in December.

Motor vehicle use on several roads that connect to private property would be restricted to administrative use only under alternatives 1, 2, and 3 (Table 8). This would reduce the potential for motorized trespass onto adjacent private lands. Private landowners in these areas would still be able to access their lands on these roads.

Table 7. Roads where motor vehicle use would be restricted to administrative use only, due to private land issues

Road Description

FR 490 A portion of FR 490 would be rerouted around private land in the Foster Park area.

Upper end of FR 77 FR 77 leads to private land at the upper end of Bitter Creek Canyon.

Upper end of FR 54B & FR 54E

Both roads lead onto private land in the Cabresto Park area.

FR 97012 Only access to this NFS road is through private property in the El Rito area, north of Questa.

FR 7C1 Short road leading onto private land from FR 7A, in the Cerro Negro area.


Road Description

FR 132A Short road leading onto private land from FR 132, in the Lama area.

Upper portion of FR 7 Leads onto D.H. Lawrence Ranch in San Cristobal

Indirect Effects

The communities of Questa and Red River are both located in the study area. Both depend on transportation into and out of the communities for many aspects of their localized economies. State highways bisect both communities providing access to and from the communities. Access to the national forest is via the Forest Service system of roads and/or trails. These Forest Service roads are not available for year round use. They are used seasonally for resource removal (firewood) or visiting areas of the national forest. Many visitors to the area use the roads for recreational opportunities.

The Questa Ranger District transportation system has been restricted to use of existing designated open roads since implementation of the Forest Plan in 1986. Off road travel has been restricted since the 1996. Some other roads have been closed to vehicular travel due to resource protection issues. The proposed are spread across the study area and are not concentrated in one area. Any indirect effects to the economy of the study are contraindicated.

The economy of these areas, based on data obtained, do not depend solely on the lands within the Carson National Forest. While the Red River community might be expected to depend solely on the national forest lands, the data indicates tourism is a large percentage of the economy. The setting of the community within national forest lands draws many tourists. In addition, Red River has many activities designed to draw people to the community without actual interaction with national forest lands. Tourism based economies are subject to many factors outside the immediate community such as fuel prices, changes in the larger economy, weather both in the immediate community and the larger regional area, and a change in the type of individuals and families visiting the area (motorized enthusiasts to hikers for example)

The proposals for travel management on the Questa Ranger District have no discernable indirect effects on economies of the local communities.

Summary of Motorized Recreation

Northern New Mexico communities depend on motor vehicle use into and out of the Carson National Forest to support some of the local economies. State highways and some NFS roads bisect the national forest providing access to and from communities. Most of the NFS roads and trails are not available for year-round use, but are used seasonally for resource removal or visiting areas of the national forest.

Table 7 displays the differences in miles of road and trail open to motor vehicle use between the existing system and alternatives for the Questa RD. These proposed changes are spread across the entire Questa RD.


Table 7. Mileage changes between existing transportation system and alternatives, Questa RD

Item Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Existing

Condition

Resulting transportation system in miles of road and trail

158 169 124 158

Change in percent from the existing condition

-- +6.9 -21.5 --

With the exception of permanently restricting motor vehicle use to administrative use only on FR 487, alternative 1 would likely not have a noticeable effect on motorized recreation on the Questa RD. Most of these roads currently access private land, where the Forest Service has no legal access. Restricting motor vehicle use to administrative use only on these roads would discourage the public from trespassing on private land. Alternative 1 would add 36 unauthorized route segments to the road system for any type of purpose. Most of these segments are user-created two-track routes within existing corridors. It is unlikely recreationists would notice a change in their camping and big game retrieval experience under alternative 1.

When compared to alternative 1, alternative 2 would provide additional terrain for recreational motor vehicle use. With 922 miles of corridor along designated roads, alternative 2 would provide more opportunities for camping out of a car or truck off a designated NFS road. However, the added corridors would not be in areas where conditions are the most favorable for motorized campers in the summer.

Alternative 3 would reduce the number of miles of system roads and trails and eliminate corridors. This would have a negative effect on motorized recreation and the experience it provides for some people.

The proposed changes from any alternative are spread across the entire Questa RD, while all of the changes to the motorized trail system are in the vicinity of Red River. The changes to both the roads and trails would not be noticeable to the average visitor to the national forest in alternatives 1 and 2; however, visitors to the Red River area would notice fewer miles of road and motorized trail that would be available for motor vehicle use in alternative 3.

Summary

The economy of surrounding communities, based on data obtained, do not depend solely on the lands within the Carson National Forest. While the Red River community might be expected to depend on NFS lands, the data indicate tourism is a large percentage of the economy. The setting

2 The purpose for motor vehicle use on 34 miles of existing corridor would change to “dispersed camping and big game retrieval.” The total includes removing existing corridor along 2 miles of road where motor vehicle use would be restricted for administrative use only.


of the community, surrounded by the national forest draws many tourists. In addition, Red River has many activities designed to draw people to the community without actual interaction with NFS lands. Tourism based economies are subject to many factors outside the immediate community, such as fuel prices, changes in the larger economy, weather both in the immediate community and the larger regional area, and a change in the type of individuals and families visiting the area (motorized enthusiasts to hikers, for example). The proposals for travel management on the Questa Ranger District have no discernable indirect effects on economies of the local communities.

The location of fuelwood collection areas may necessitate changes in retrieval of the fuelwood resource. However, the changes in the transportation system would not preclude obtaining fuelwood. There is no impact other than a possible restriction in timing and change of locations for the removal of fuelwood. Fuelwood permits would still be issued to anyone who wants to cut their own fuelwood on the national forest. Roads and trails would still be available for use by the recreating public, outfitter guides, and permittees.

Cumulative Effects

A travel management decision on the Questa RD would not change the social makeup of the study area nor preclude access to NFS lands. The public would still be able to visit the Questa RD to recreate, collect wood, hike the wilderness, camp, and hunt. Additionally, there are no proposed projects planned that would affect the social and economic environments of Taos County; therefore, there would be no cumulative impacts on the social or economic environments.


Environmental Justice

Regulatory guidance for the evaluation of environmental justice includes both Executive Orders 12898 and 13045. Executive Order 12898—Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations—states “…each Federal agency shall make achieving environmental justice part of its mission by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects of its programs, policies, and activities on minority populations and low-income populations in the United States… (U.S. 1994).”

Executive Order 13045 - Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks - addresses the vulnerability and sensitivity of children stating, “…each Federal agency shall make it a high priority to identify and assess environmental health risks and safety risks that may disproportionately affect children; and shall ensure that its policies, programs, activities, and standards address disproportionate risks to children that result from environmental health risks or safety risks (U.S. 1997).”

The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) defines a minority as individuals belonging to one of the following groups: American Indian or Alaskan Native; Asian or Pacific Islander; Black, not of Hispanic origin; or Hispanic (CEQ 1997). The Questa RD is located within Taos County. Percentages of Hispanics and American Indians comprise considerably higher proportions of Taos County, compared to New Mexico and the United States. The population center of the Questa RD is located within Taos County. Taos County has a large Hispanic and American Indian population. Both of these population groups are listed as minorities by the CEQ. Taos County includes Taos and Picuris Pueblo lands.

Executive Order 12898, a low-income population is determined using annual statistical poverty thresholds from the U.S. Census Bureau (CEQ 1997). Estimates from 1999 indicate that a higher percentage of the populations of Taos County lived below poverty level as compared with the United States and New Mexico. The percentage of children under the age of 18 below poverty level in Rio Arriba County (23 percent) is higher than for the United States (17 percent). In addition, the proportion of children under 18 years of age in Rio Arriba and Taos Counties is either the same or slightly higher than the entire state of New Mexico, and 6 to 8 percent higher than the United States.

Race and Ethnicity

Census data indicate the majority of the population of the study area is Hispanic.3 The Hispanic ethnicity exceeds the national level, with nearly 3 of 5 individuals identifying themselves as Hispanic. The majority of the remaining 2 of 5 individuals identify themselves as white or American Indian. Although the area is predominately Hispanic, it is comprised of three different ethnicities.

3 This analysis uses the definition from the 2000 Census.

22 Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD

Table 8. Race and ethnicity of the study area

Ethnicity

Red River Questa Taos County

New Mexico United States

Total % Total % Total % Total % Total %

White alone 461 95 1,033 55 8,996 30 400,758 22 16,907,852 6

Black or African American alone

2 0.1 24 0.1 3,689 0.2 710,353 0.3

American Indian and Alaska Native alone

8 2 25 1 207 0.7 12,023 0.7 407,073 0.1

Asian alone 2 0.4 11 0.6 16 0.1 998 0.1 119,829 0.0

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone

0 0 6 0.3 25 0.1 511 0 45,326 0.0

Some other race alone

27 6 897 48 7,343 25 306,873 16 14,891,303 5

Two or more races

13 3 102 6 759 3 40,534 2 2,224,082 0.8

Not Hispanic or Latino

439 91 331 20 12,609 42 1,053,66

0 57

246,116,088

88

Hispanic or Latino (of any race)

425 9 1,501 81 17,370 58 765,386 42 35,305,818 13

Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2000


Appendix A. Gross Receipts for Town of Red River

Figure 1. Gross receipts tax by sector for the Town of Red River in 2008





Appendix B. Comparison of Alternatives Based on Roads/Trails Promoted by Red River Tourism

Table 9. Roads and trails on the Questa RD, comparison of alternatives

Road Existing

Condition Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Cabresto Canyon (FR 134)

Motor vehicle use on FR 134 only. Seasonal designation in upper Cabresto Canyon – motor vehicle use from late May to Dec 31.

Would add 9 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system. No change in seasonal designation.

No change.

Cabresto Lake Road (FR 134A)

FR 134A (requires high clearance) accesses Cabresto Lake, Cabresto Lake Campground, and Lake Fork Trail trailhead into Latir Peak Wilderness. Motor vehicle use on FR 134A only.

No change.

NOTE: This road is currently closed during the reconstruction of Cabresto Dam. Implementation is estimated to take 2 years.

4th of July Canyon (FR 490)

Motor vehicle use on FR 490 only.

Would reroute FR 490 around PVT land and convert (4th of July Canyon) to motorized trail for vehicles <50” wide and add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Would reroute FR 490 around PVT land. Maintain as an NFS road and add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Would restrict motor vehicle use on FR 490 to administrative use only and add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Garrapata Ridge (FR 9709R0)

FR 970R0 extends 1.8 mi to Rio Grande Gorge rim. No existing corridor.

Would restrict motor vehicle use to administrative use only on the lower portion within drainage (0.9 mi) and add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use

Would add 100’corridor to allow motor vehicle use for dispersed camping or big game retrieval and seasonal designation – motor vehicle use

Would restrict motor vehicle use to administrative use only on entire FR 9709R0 (1.8 mi) and add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec


Road Existing


from May 1 - Dec 31.

from May 1 - Dec 31.

31.

Goose Lake (FR 486)

Includes 100’ corridor for camping, parking, & fuelwood gathering.

Would remove 100’ corridor & add 4 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system and add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

No change to corridor. Would add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Would restrict motor vehicle use on FR 486 to administrative use only and close motorized trail to Pioneer Road (FR 485).

Largo Lake Private land holding in San Cristobal area. Access via state, and county roads

No change. No change. No change.

Mallette Canyon (FR 597 and FR 491)

FR 597 connects with Cabresto Canyon Road from Red River. Provides access to private lands and FR 491. No corridors. Seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from late May to Dec 31.

Would add 3 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system and seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Would add 3 miles of unauthorized route connecting FR 491 with FR 54C, 100’ corridor along FR 597 and FR 491, and seasonal designation on FR 491– motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Restrict motor vehicle use on FR 491 to administrative use only.

Old Red River Pass (FR 488)

Portion of road on steep slope. No existing corridor.

Would add 3 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) to the system and seasonal

No change to system. Would add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Same as alternative 2.


Road Existing


designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Pioneer Creek (FR 485)

Includes 100’ corridor for camping, parking, & fuelwood gathering.

Would remove 100’ corridor. Canyon is too steep to add route segments. Would add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

No change in system. Would add seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Would restrict motor vehicle use on FR 485 to administrative use only and close motorized trail to Goose Creek Road (FR 486).

Cerro Negro (FR 7C)

Takes off from FR 7 in San Cristobal area. No existing corridor. No seasonal designation except by forest order.

Would add approx. 1 mile of unauthorized route to create a loop road off FR 7C and seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Would add 100’ corridor along FR 7C for dispersed camping & big game retrieval and seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from May 1 - Dec 31.

Would restrict motor vehicle use on FR 7C to administrative use only.

Trail Canyon (FR 54K)

Road on steep slope and open seasonally in winter for over-snow use. No existing corridor. Seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from late May to Dec 31.

No change. No change. No change.

Middle Fork Lake Road (FR 487)

Includes 100’ corridor. Special order has not allowed motor vehicle use for safety reasons.

Would restrict motor vehicle use on FR 487 to administrative use only and add 4 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites) of FR 487, near Middle

No change. Same as alternative 1.


Road Existing


Fork Lake Trailhead.

Greenie Peak/Midnight (FR 54 series4)

Includes 100’ corridor for camping, parking, & fuelwood gathering. Seasonal designation (Jan 1-June 15).

Would remove 100’ corridor & add 10 unauthorized route segments (for any type of use, including motorized access to historic dispersed campsites).

No change. Would remove 100’ corridor. Motor vehicle use would be limited to designated road. Would change seasonal designation – motor vehicle use from July 1 to Dec 31.

4 “54 series” refers to a group of roads off FR 597 in the Greenie Peak area. Each road is numbered “54” followed by a letter (ex. “54C”).


Appendix C

United States IMPLAN Model US Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc.

Model Information Model Year 2009 Value Added GRP $14,119,100,022,110 Employee Compensation $7,813,139,005,981 Total Personal Income $12,015,530,000,000 Proprietor Income $1,011,899,999,148 Total Employment 172,400,746 Other Property Type Income $4,269,361,007,462

Indirect Business Taxes $1,024,700,009,519 Number of Industries 436 Land Area (Sq. Miles) 3,536,278 Total Value Added $14,119,100,022,110 Area Count 1

Final Demand Population 307,006,600 Households 10,126,747,286,093 Total Households 117,178,100 State/Local Government $2,226,099,998,118 Average Household Income $102,541 Federal Government $1,149,402,629,490

Capital $1,837,803,019,836 Trade Flows Method Supply/Demand Pooling Exports $1,463,807,376,299 Model Status Multipliers Imports ‐$1,850,107,338,900

Institutional Sales ‐$834,652,931,929 Economic Indicators Shannon‐Weaver Index .75695 Total Final Demand: $14,119,100,039,007

Top Ten Industries Sector Description Employment Labor Income Output

413 Food services and drinking places 10,428,660 $224,703,600,000 $605,955,000,000 438 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) 10,261,000 $570,762,000,000 $648,393,800,000

437 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, non‐education) 8,316,000 $483,179,000,000 $548,898,200,000


IMPLAN Model US Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. 360 Real estate establishments 7,298,913 $105,985,800,000 $1,054,313,000,000 319 Wholesale trade businesses 5,889,220 $445,627,400,000 $1,166,098,000,000 394 Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners 4,570,333 $344,719,300,000 $580,323,400,000 397 Private hospitals 4,526,887 $302,391,000,000 $622,634,500,000 36 Construction of other new nonresidential structures 3,487,749 $173,585,900,000 $412,974,300,000 382 Employment services 3,427,707 $100,674,000,000 $146,838,000,000 398 Nursing and residential care facilities 3,121,963 $106,291,800,000 $183,462,200,000

Areas In the Model United States


New Mexico IMPLAN Model NM Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc.

Model Information Model Year 2009 Value Added GRP $70,525,907,756 Employee Compensation $42,134,754,884 Total Personal Income $66,304,020,000 Proprietor Income $4,960,275,927 Total Employment 1,062,192 Other Property Type Income $18,688,881,341

Indirect Business Taxes $4,741,995,604 Number of Industries 360 Land Area (Sq. Miles) 121,365 Total Value Added $70,525,907,756 Area Count 1

Final Demand Population 2,009,671 Households 57,952,309,089 Total Households 765,736 State/Local Government $20,880,493,028 Average Household Income $86,589 Federal Government $10,685,636,445

Capital $8,375,105,807 Trade Flows Method Trade Flows Model Exports $47,484,172,621 Model Status Multipliers Imports ‐$68,565,898,978

Institutional Sales ‐$6,285,909,265 Economic Indicators Shannon‐Weaver Index .71241 Total Final Demand: $70,525,908,745


438 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) 101,709 $5,184,267,000 $5,889,402,000 413 Food services and drinking places 68,425 $1,414,153,000 $3,898,967,000

437 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, non‐education) 56,836 $3,059,764,000 $3,475,935,000

360 Real estate establishments 38,672 $354,217,700 $3,542,788,000 376 Scientific research and development services 31,483 $2,556,112,000 $4,723,038,000 439 * Employment and payroll only (federal govt, non‐military) 29,448 $3,015,159,000 $3,410,582,000 319 Wholesale trade businesses 25,799 $1,401,707,000 $3,743,603,000


394 Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners 24,589 $1,536,728,000 $2,731,455,000 36 Construction of other new nonresidential structures 24,440 $1,045,346,000 $2,663,939,000 329 Retail Stores ‐ General merchandise 22,311 $601,611,900 $1,153,014,000

Areas In the Model New Mexico


Taos County, New Mexico Taos co Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc.

Model Information Model Year 2009 Value Added GRP $1,060,527,674 Employee Compensation $436,367,811 Total Personal Income $1,018,933,000 Proprietor Income $181,622,415 Total Employment 19,553 Other Property Type Income $339,778,965

Indirect Business Taxes $102,758,483 Number of Industries 158 Land Area (Sq. Miles) 2,203 Total Value Added $1,060,527,674 Area Count 1

Final Demand Population 31,507 Households 952,988,811 Total Households 13,638 State/Local Government $230,454,561 Average Household Income $74,711 Federal Government $61,875,131

Capital $138,975,173 Trade Flows Method Trade Flows Model Exports $846,402,163 Model Status Multipliers Imports ‐$1,099,762,575

Institutional Sales ‐$70,405,592 Economic Indicators Shannon‐Weaver Index .65441 Total Final Demand: $1,060,527,673


330 Retail Stores ‐ Miscellaneous 2,179 $33,701,290 $62,193,860 413 Food services and drinking places 1,443 $30,746,660 $83,912,600 438 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) 1,165 $54,860,710 $62,322,550 331 Retail Nonstores ‐ Direct and electronic sales 1,061 $7,839,093 $28,658,550

437 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, non‐education) 662 $29,919,310 $33,988,760

360 Real estate establishments 649 $6,360,882 $63,408,770 324 Retail Stores ‐ Food and beverage 565 $19,444,400 $37,870,920


394 Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners 495 $24,090,800 $46,923,980 411 Hotels and motels, including casino hotels 482 $12,231,520 $42,399,680 36 Construction of other new nonresidential structures 472 $14,109,330 $43,712,840



Questa, New Mexico Questa Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc.

Model Information Model Year 2009 Value Added GRP $151,642,232 Employee Compensation $37,059,904 Total Personal Income $68,497,330 Proprietor Income $7,505,337 Total Employment 758 Other Property Type Income $93,766,743

Indirect Business Taxes $13,310,248 Number of Industries 78 Land Area (Sq. Miles) 253 Total Value Added $151,642,232 Area Count 1

Final Demand Population 2,537 Households 66,908,154 Total Households 1,087 State/Local Government $10,192,323 Average Household Income $63,001 Federal Government $3,788,921

Capital $6,126,641 Trade Flows Method Econometric RPC Exports $192,633,810 Model Status Multipliers Imports ‐$122,773,433

Institutional Sales ‐$5,234,183 Economic Indicators Shannon‐Weaver Index .45974 Total Final Demand: $151,642,233


24 Mining gold, silver, and other metal ore 258 $24,605,850 $213,479,500 438 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) 94 $4,417,204 $5,018,007 331 Retail Nonstores ‐ Direct and electronic sales 39 $288,202 $1,053,623

396 Medical and diagnostic labs and outpatient and other ambulatory care services 34 $1,422,750 $3,783,640

437 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, non‐education) 29 $1,323,242 $1,503,222 405 Independent artists, writers, and performers 29 $570,074 $984,992 324 Retail Stores ‐ Food and beverage 25 $854,147 $1,663,581


323 Retail Stores ‐ Building material and garden supply 18 $494,441 $931,285 326 Retail Stores ‐ Gasoline stations 16 $1,425,255 $2,855,092 36 Construction of other new nonresidential structures 16 $469,515 $1,454,629



Red River, New Mexico Red River Copyright 2011 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc.

Model Information Model Year 2009 Value Added GRP $41,115,707 Employee Compensation $12,905,559 Total Personal Income $29,620,530 Proprietor Income $7,725,122 Total Employment 897 Other Property Type Income $15,055,452

Indirect Business Taxes $5,429,574 Number of Industries 79 Land Area (Sq. Miles) 110 Total Value Added $41,115,707 Area Count 1

Final Demand Population 644 Households 25,640,345 Total Households 307 State/Local Government $9,027,752 Average Household Income $96,593 Federal Government $2,582,767

Capital $5,426,592 Trade Flows Method Econometric RPC Exports $42,242,061 Model Status Multipliers Imports ‐$42,144,521

Institutional Sales ‐$1,659,287 Economic Indicators Shannon‐Weaver Index .4251 Total Final Demand: $41,115,707


330 Retail Stores ‐ Miscellaneous 268 $4,150,052 $7,658,693 360 Real estate establishments 160 $1,571,686 $15,667,430 413 Food services and drinking places 110 $2,352,204 $6,419,544 411 Hotels and motels, including casino hotels 52 $1,326,860 $4,599,467 321 Retail Stores ‐ Furniture and home furnishings 28 $473,895 $1,038,024 363 General and consumer goods rental except video tapes and discs 27 $1,005,872 $1,834,866 437 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, non‐ 26 $1,172,049 $1,331,465


education) 438 * Employment and payroll only (state & local govt, education) 24 $1,120,730 $1,273,165 328 Retail Stores ‐ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music 22 $279,225 $551,023 324 Retail Stores ‐ Food and beverage 21 $728,537 $1,418,936



Literature Cited

United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region September 11, 2005. “Values, Attitudes and Beliefs Toward National Forest System Lands: New Mexico Tribal Peoples. Adams-Russell Consulting 1688 Springvale Road Placerville, CA 95667

United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region July, 2007. “Social Economic Assessment of the Carson National Forest, University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research

United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region 2006. “Values , Attitudes, and Beliefs Toward National Forest System lands: The Carson National Forest, Adams-Russell Consulting 1688 Springvale Road Placerville, CA 95667

United States Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, 2000 Census data, Washington, D.C.

A Social Economic profile for Taos County, New Mexico, Produced by the Economic Profile System, on August 30, 2011, Headwaters Economic.

A Social Economic profile for State of New Mexico, Produced by the Economic Profile System, on August 30, 2011, Headwaters Economic.

A Social Economic profile for United States, Produced by the Economic Profile System, on August 30, 2011 Headwaters Economic.

A Social Economic profile for Taos, New Mexico, Produced by the Economic Profile System, on August 30, 2011, Headwaters Economic.

A Social Economic profile for Red River, New Mexico, Produced by the Economic Profile System, on August 30, 2011, Headwaters Economic.

A Social Economic profile for Questa, New Mexico, Produced by the Economic Profile System, on August 30, 2011, Headwaters Economic.

USCB. 2000. Summary file 1: population, area, and density by census tract. U.S. Census Bureau. Washington, DC. http://www.census.gov/census2000/states/nm.html.

USCB. 2005. Table 1: Annual estimates of the population for counties of New Mexico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2004. U.S. Census Bureau. Online at http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-EST2004-01-35.xls. Accessed May 3, 2005.

Documents

Socio-Economic Analysis Report for Travel Managementa123.g.akamai.net/7/123/11558/abc123/forestservic...Socio-Economic Effects Report for Travel Management on the Questa RD 1 Summary