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Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012
Dave RohrlCreative Director, Playdom
Casual Connect EuropeFebruary 9, 2012
What Is the Crystal Ball?
Goal
• Predict important FB gaming trends• Understand reasons• Forecast impacts
Methodology
• But seriously– Year in Social Games reflection• Deflecting trends lines
– General industry trend lines• Inside/Outside social
– Interesting financial events and key quotes
Caveat Auditor
• Hugely speculative• Hard to predict• Consider the source
Prediction #1
Social GoesCasual
(Not Easy Money)
Trend Line
• 2008-2009: Text RPG
Trend Line
• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorators
Trend Line
• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorators• 2010-2011: Builder
Trend Line
• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorator• 2010-2011: Builder• 2011-2012: Genre diversification
Dominant Mammal?
• Casual!
2010 Casual Hits
2011 Casual Hits
Why Does This Work?
• Demographics/Psychographics• Large pool of experienced devs• Well-understood core game
Why Now?
• Development experience• Code has been cracked• Market is very, very proven
2011 Casual Hits
Missing From the Picture?
But……
• Expect lots of failure– Merging is hard– Execution is key– Lots of people trying
So?
• Classic casual gameplay as entry point• Stock up on high skill– Both sides of the coin
• Winners win big• Execution wins
Prediction #2
HTML5 Makes A Dent(But Doesn’t Become
Dominant)
What is HTML5?
• Web development standard• Open• Cross-platform• 2D gaming support via canvas• 3D gaming support via WebGL (still in infancy)
Trend Line
• Early yet
Late 2010 Late 2011
Why Now?
• April 2010: “new open standards, created in the web era, such as HTML 5, will win (over Flash)
• September 2010: Zynga buys Dextrose AG• January 2011: Facebook publishes HTML5
browser performance stats, suggests future prefs
• March 2011: Disney acquires RocketPack• November 2011: Adobe abandons Flash for
mobile, focuses on HTML5
Why Does It Matter?
• Web/mobile apps• Web = big $$$ today• Mobile = web of the future– Internet in your pocket
Is Web/Mobile Cross-Platform Always a Good Idea?
• Mostly, kinda, sorta• UI refactor• Different play patterns• Different purchase drivers• Different release cycles• BUT partial is better than nothing
Why Not Dominant?
• Lots of skilled Flash teams• Lots of games in the pipeline• Variable browser performance
So?
• If you’re not gearing up now, you should• You NEED a mobile strategy– Free-ish (with HTML5)
• Watch out for browser performance variance• This section will look VERY different in the
2013 version.
Prediction #3
IP Becomes Really Important
(But Still Isn’t a Magic Wand)
Why is IP Important?
• Facebook had over 550,000 apps as of January 2010– Probably 2MM+ by now
• iPhone had over 300,000 apps as of January 2011– 600,00 by now
Where Do Little Users Come From?
• Directory Search• Game Channel• Virals• Word of Mouth• Advertising
• Directory Search• Game Channel• Virals
IP and Advertising
• Does IP lower acquisition costs?
• Yes!
Oh, and
Additional Benefits
• Fan Base• Price Points• Content Stream
But…
Remember…
• Trial ≠ Conversion• Conversion isn’t just monetization
Prediction #4
Mobile-> Web Gets Leverage
(But Doesn’t Dominate)
Web->Mobile 2010
Mobile->Web Stories 2010
Pseudo Web->Mobile
Mobile->Web Stories 2011
Mobile->Web Stories 2012??
Why?
• Similarity of play patterns• Related expertise• Enough resources
But….
• Not a freebie– UI– Play duration & other variations
• Interoperation is hard• Competition will accelerate
…And the Rest
• The All-Singing, All-Dancing Photorealistic 3D Game Still Doesn’t Make It
• 2009 Won’t Come Back For Hardcore Strategy Games
• 2012 (post-IPO) Will Be An Interesting Year For the Zynga Quality Bar
