Slide 1 Tasmania - Launceston

Notes

22 September 2014

Presenter: Ivan Neville

Branch Manager

Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

www.employment.gov.au

Slide 2 Map of Tasmania

Notes

The region of Tasmania surveyed consists of the Launceston Employment Service Area (ESA) and West and North West Employment Service Area (ESA).

The Launceston ESA is made up of the following Local Government Areas:

Break O'Day (M), Dorset (M), Flinders (M), George Town (M), Launceston (C), Meander Valley (M), Northern Midlands (M), West Tamar (M).

The West and North West ESA is made up of the following Local Government Areas:

Burnie (C), Central Coast (M), Circular Head (M), Devonport (C), Kentish (M), King Island (M), Latrobe (M), Waratah/Wynyard (M), West Coast (M).

The Launceston ESA fits wholly within and comprises 100 per cent of the Launceston and North East Statistical Area Level 4.

Slide 3 Population profile

Region Adult Population

(15 years+)

Adult Population Growth

(2007 to 2012)

Median Age

Launceston 117,200 4% 41

West and North West 92,300 4% 41

Tasmania 417,000 5% 40

Australia 18,419,600 10% 37

Notes

Source: ABS, Estimated Residential Population, 2012, ABS, Census of Population

The adult population growth in Launceston was 4 per cent, less than half that for Australia (10 per cent). The median age for Launceston (41) was above Australia (37).

Slide 4 Age Distribution

Notes

Source: ABS, Estimated Residential Population, 2002 - 2012

The Launceston population has aged significantly from 2002 to 2012:

The proportion of the population aged 25-44 years has decreased

The proportion of the population aged 55 years and over has increased

Slide 5 Ageing Population

Age 2007 2012 Growth

0-14 years 27,600 26,400 -4%

15-29 years 26,200 26,900 3%

30-49 years 37,900 35,600 -6%

50 years and over 48,500 54,700 13%

Total 140,200 143,600 2%

Notes

Source: ABS, Estimated Residential Population, 2012 & 2007

Between 2007 and 2012, the population of Launceston has aged:

The proportion of the population aged 0-14 years decreased by 4 per cent.

The proportion of the population aged 15-29 years increased by 3 per cent.

The proportion of the population aged 30-49 years decreased by 6 per cent.

The proportion of the population aged 50 years and over increased by 13 per cent.

Slide 6 Full-time employment down but not out - Launceston

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014

A shift from full-time employment to part-time employment has occurred between September 2008 and August 2013. Since then, however, there has been a shift back to full-time employment and away from part-time employment.

Full-time employment decreased by 5,500 jobs over the period from September 2008 to August 2013. However, the year to August 2014 saw an increase in full-time employment of 1,900 jobs.

Part-time employment increased by 5,400 jobs from September 2008 to August 2013. However, the year to August 2014 saw a decrease in part-time employment of 2,600 jobs.

Slide 7 Females employed full-time leading the way - Launceston

Time period Employed full-time Employed part-time

Males Females Males Females

2013-2014 -450 2330 -500 -2070

GFC-2013 -2580 -2920 1610 3770

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014 2014

Over the year to August 2014, the number of females working full-time in Launceston increased by 2330, while the number of males working full-time, and the number of males and females working part-time has decreased.

95% of the females working full-time are aged 25 and over.

Slide 8 Increasing unemployment

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014

As shown in the graph, the unemployment rate for Launceston and Tasmania as a whole has been increasing since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Since August 2011, the unemployment rates for Launceston and Tasmania have increased at a faster rate than that of Australia.

Slide 9 Duration of unemployment

Region

Long-term unemployed(52 weeks or more)

Average duration of

unemployment (weeks)Persons Proportion of all

unemployed

Launceston 2,100 38% 64

West and North West 1,500 34% 60

Australia 157,600 22% 40

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014, 12 month averages of original data

 The average duration of unemployment for people in Launceston (64 weeks) was higher compared with Australia (40 weeks)

In addition, both Launceston (38 per cent) and West and North West (34 per cent) had higher proportions of long-term unemployed compared with Australia (22 per cent).

Slide 10 Exposure to unemployment starts at home – Families with children under the age of 15

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

At the time of the 2011 census:

19 per cent of families with children under the age of 15 (2,500 families) in the region were jobless.

48 per cent of one parent families with children under the age of 15 (1,700 families) in the region were jobless.

There were around 4,600 children (15 years and under) from jobless families.

Slide 11 High youth unemployment – 15-24 years

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014, 12 month averages of original data

The unemployment rate for persons aged 15-24 years in Launceston is 17.9 per cent - higher compared with Australia (12.9 per cent).

In addition, the participation rate for those aged 15-24 years in Launceston (64.1 per cent) is lower compared with Australia (66.5 per cent).

Slide 12 High levels of disengagement among young adults (20-24 year olds)

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

A larger proportion of females in Launceston were not studying and unemployed or not in the labour force compared with Australia.

Slide 13 Females aged 20-24 years are heavily reliant on income support payments

Launceston Tasmania Australia

% on Income support payments 40% 37% 26%

% on Unemployment benefits 10% 10% 6%

% on Disability payments 3% 3% 2%

% on Parenting (PPS +PPP) payments 13% 13% 7%

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, administrative data, June 2014; ABS Estimated Resident Population, 2012

In Launceston, females aged 20-24 years are heavily reliant on income support payments:

40 per cent are on income support payments (compared with 26 per cent for Australia).

10 per cent are on unemployment benefits (compared with 6 per cent for Australia).

3 per cent are on disability payments (compared with 2 per cent for Australia).

13 per cent are on parenting payments (compared with 7 per cent for Australia).

Slide 14 Indigenous labour market outcomes

RegionProportion

of WAP Indigenous

Unemployment Rate Participation Rate

Indigenous Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-

Indigenous

Launceston 3% 15.0% 6.7% 59.0% 73.0%

West and North West 6% 11.5% 6.9% 65.0% 72.4%

Tasmania 4% 12.6% 6.3% 62.2% 73.3%

Australia 2% 17.2% 5.5% 55.9% 76.4%

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Data from the 2011 Census shows that in Launceston, Indigenous labour market outcomes are poorer than those for Tasmania but better than Indigenous outcomes for Australia as a whole.

The unemployment rate for Indigenous persons in Launceston was 15.0 per cent, higher compared with Tasmania (12.6 per cent), but lower compared with Australia (17.2 per cent).

The participation rate for Indigenous persons in Launceston was 59.0 per cent, lower compared with Tasmania (62.2 per cent) but higher compared with Australia (55.9 per cent)

Slide 15 Lower educational attainment – Persons aged 25-34 years

Region Completed Year 12

Attained Advanced

Diploma, Diploma or Certificate III &

IV Level

Attained Bachelor Degree or

Higher

Launceston 56% 33% 21%

West and North West 45% 36% 15%

Tasmania 59% 32% 24%

Australia 75% 30% 35%

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

At the time of the 2011 Census, Launceston had a lower proportion of 25-34 year olds who completed Year 12 (56 per cent) compared with Australia (75 per cent). There was also a lower proportion of 25-34 year olds who had attained a Bachelor degree or higher (21 per cent) compared with Australia (35 per cent).

Slide 16 The problem starts early – Highest year of school completed for persons aged 25-34 years

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

This graph shows that at the time of the 2011 Census, Launceston had a lower proportion of 25-34 year olds who completed Year 12 or equivalent (56 per cent) compared with Australia (75 per cent), and a larger proportion whose highest level of schooling was Year 11 or Year 10.

Slide 17 Educational attainment & labour market outcomes – Launceston, persons aged 25-34

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

There is a strong relationship between educational attainment and employment outcomes. For those aged 25 to 34 years in Launceston, there were high unemployment rates for those who had completed Certificate I & II (13.1 per cent) and those who did not complete Year 12 without any further post school qualification (13.0 per cent).

Unemployment rates are considerably lower for those who have completed a tertiary education at the Bachelor degree (3.1 per cent) or an Advanced Diploma and Diploma Level (4.6 per cent). It should also be noted that employment outcomes are better for those who have attained Certificate Levels III or IV (4.8 per cent unemployment rate). This emphasises the importance of post school education in ensuring success in gaining employment.

Slide 18 Employment by Industry – Launceston (Adult population)

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August Quarter 2014

The largest employing industries in Launceston are Health Care and Social Assistance (13 per cent of total employment), Retail Trade (12 per cent), and Education and Training (10 per cent).

Launceston also has a larger proportion of people employed in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (7 per cent) compared with Australia (3 per cent).

Slide 19 Employment growth for largest industries – Launceston (2009-2014)

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August Quarter 2014

Over the past 5 years, the largest employment growth has occurred in the Education and Training industry (2200 employed persons), and the largest decline in employment has occurred in the Construction (-1500) and the Manufacturing (-1300) industries.

Slide 20 Future opportunities? - Launceston

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Projections to November 2018

Projected employment growth is greatest over the next five years for the Health Care and Social Assistance (720 employed persons), Education and Training (660), and Retail Trade (530) industries.

The greatest declines in jobs are expected to occur for the Manufacturing (-590) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (-440) industries.

Slide 21 Recruitment activity - Launceston

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014

Majority of employers (61 per cent) recruited over the past year despite the softening of the region’s labour market.

o The recruitment rate for the Accommodation and Food Services industry was high (24.6 vacancies per 100 staff)

Most positions in Launceston were filled (1.3% unfill rate). One third of employers had difficulty recruiting.

Slide 22 The recruitment process - Launceston

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014

This slide shows the average number of total applicants, average number interviewed, and average number found suitable in Launceston.

On average employers in Launceston received 9 applicants per vacancy

Of these applicants on average only 3 were interviewed.

Of these interviewed applicants only 1 were considered suitable for the vacancy.

The reason those applicants did not get an interview were:

Lack of relevant experience Application poorly written/presented or not good enough Applicant not available for required work hours Insufficient qualifications or training

Slide 23 Reasons applicants didn’t get an interview – for vacancies advertised in the Newspaper or on the Internet – Launceston

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014

For vacancies advertised in the Newspaper or on the Internet, over two thirds of applicants (68 per cent) were regarded by employers as unsuitable in Launceston.

Reasons applicants were considered unsuitable include:

Lack of relevant experience (46 per cent) Insufficient qualifications or training (17 per cent) Poorly written/presented application (17 per cent) Applicant not available for required work hours (17 per cent) Applicant located overseas/interstate/out of area (17 per cent) Applicant uninterested/did not turn up for interview (13 per cent) Lack of soft skills (4 per cent)

Personality traits and employability skills employers in Launceston viewed as essential

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014

Employers in Launceston viewed the following employability skills and personality traits as essential:

Employability skills: Interpersonal/Social Skills, Customer Service Skills, Communication

Personality traits: Reliability, Honesty and Work Ethic, Enthusiasm/positive attitude, Presentation

Slide 25 Almost half employers do not formally advertise vacancies in Launceston

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014

Half of recruiting employers (52 per cent) used formal methods to advertise for vacancies (i.e. Internet, Newspaper)

The other half (48 per cent) of recruiting employers used Informal methods ONLY to recruit for vacancies (i.e. Word of Mouth, Approached by job seeker)

Slide 26 Recruitment outlook slightly above average

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014; Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, all regions surveyed to March 2014

This slide suggests that that the recruitment outlook in Launceston is slightly above average:

40 per cent of employers expected to recruit in the 12 months following the survey, slightly larger compared with all regions surveyed (38 per cent).

20 per cent of employers in the Launceston ESA expected to increase in size in the 12 months following the survey, slightly larger compared with all regions surveyed (19 per cent).

Slide 27 Occupations likely to present opportunities – Launceston

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014

Employers in Launceston considered the following occupations as likely to present opportunities for job seekers:

Sales Assistants (general)

Truck Drivers

Housekeepers

Bar Attendants and Baristas

Child carers

General clerks

Waiters

Slide 28 Single greatest concern for the future

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Tasmania, May 2014

Over half of employers (57 per cent) in Launceston reported the economy as the single greatest concern for the future.

Other concerns were:

Cash flow/costs/wage: 13%

Paperwork, regulations and red tape: 7%

Recruitment or retention difficulty: 6%

Competition (including high Australian dollar): 2%

Other: 2%

No concerns: 13%

Slide 29 Conclusion

Labour market conditions remain soft

Unemployment rate has increased; recruitment slowing

Challenges

Disengaged groups: youth, jobless families, less educated and long term unemployed Many people receiving income support Declining male employment Ageing population and future labour supply Transitioning to the Services sector

Opportunities

Future recruitment encouraging Growth industries such as Health Care and Social Assistance Niche industries Broad range of occupations likely to be available

Job seekers need to have…

Employability skills Higher levels of education and training Broader job search techniques

Ongoing collaboration with key stakeholders essential

Slide 30 Further Information

More information on labour market conditions and other research on small areas can be found on these websites:

www.employment.gov.au/regionalreports

www.lmip.gov.au

www.emplyoment.gov.au/SkillShortages

www.employment.gov.au/australianjobs

www.joboutlook.gov.au

Slide 31

If you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Recruitment Analysis and Employer Surveys sections on 1800 059 439 or email recruitmentsurveys@employment.gov.au

Slide 32

Australian Government Department of Employment