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Communication Systems Limited Email: [email protected] 42 Holywell Hill, St Albans, Herts, AL1 1BX, UK Tel: +44-1727-832288 Fax: +44-1727-810194
Simon Bull Senior Consultant
30.10.2012
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
2
The Market
Future Services
What All this Means to You
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
VSAT Vessels in Service
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Maritime VSAT Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Commercial fleet use of VSAT has continued to grow as data needs increase & L-band MSS struggles with broadband
Vessels in service grew by 23.5% But growth of growth slowed significantly as the maritime business went into recession
Decline in net growth of 2% in 2009 But picked up to 12% in 2011 and 20% in 2012
3
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
VSAT
Ter
min
al P
enet
ratio
n
VSAT Penetration vs Inmarsat
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
VSAT
Ter
min
al P
enet
ratio
n
Serv
ice
Reve
nues
(US$
m)
Inmarsat (Wholesale)
VSAT (Retail)
VSAT Terminal Penetration
VSAT vs Inmarsat Revenues
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Inland
Leisure
Fishing
Commercial
Military/Government
High-End Commercial
Offshore Service
O&G Rigs
VSAT services have continued to penetrate Inmarsat’s core market
Taking the largest spenders Performance of individual segments varies - LNG/LPG Tankers, Oil Tankers, Containers and Freight have each consecutively performed better than the other
But it has largely been OSV segment that has kept the market alive
4
Maritime VSAT Segment Growth
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
Annual Stabilised Antenna Sales
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
06 07 08 09 10 11Antenna Size Sales Distribution
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
>2 Metres
1-2 Metres
Sub-Metre
Stabilised antenna sales grew by around 10% between 2009-11, although this was off a decline in 2008
Over 2,900 antennas sold in 2011 However, the mix of new sales has changed considerably over the past few years, even more so since 2009
Sub-metre antenna sales grew by ~20% in 2011 - >4x 1-2m sales
5
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
6
Tran
sact
iona
l
• Inventory management
• Payroll • Account reconciliation • Warranty support • Promotions • Price updates • Etc . . . . .
Bro
adba
nd
• . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . Etc.
Con
tinui
ty
• Product updates • Traffic Overflow • Credit verification • Staff training • Videoconferencing • Special promotions • Etc . . . . .
Network Centralisation
Bandwidth Consumption
Cloud Computing & Virtualisation
Value Value? Value
Uniformity Expedient Pervasive
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
7
$200
$5,000
$350
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
Application data requirements and internet use are growing rapidly in all industries with very few exceptions
Back-up services use more than primary links of five years ago
Communication failure is a major issue: - Lost revenue - Recovery
Bandwidth is taking over as the key driver over number of sites
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
09 10 11 120
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
09 10 11 12
Gbytes/Month/Vessel
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
Regulatory, business process, safety, control and operational applications are pushing the demand for data at sea
But all apps are built around the assumption of Inmarsat
In 2008 crew welfare drove purchase decisions, by 2010 this was no longer true and corporate apps closed the deal
Nevertheless, it is crew welfare that uses the bandwidth
9
Share of Bandwidth Consumption
Cor
pora
te
Cre
w W
elfa
re
10,0
00
40,0
00
75,0
00
10,0
00
1,50
0
1,00
0
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
10
100 MB/month 1.5 TB/month 20 GB/month 40 GB/month
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
11
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
GH
z/G
bps
FSS Capacity Data Use by Frequency
Ka-band
Ku-band
C-band
Spot Beam
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
12
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
13
1. Typical antenna sizes are indicative and will vary depending on the application and operator. 2. Potentially any teleport within Epic coverage area. 3. Band in brackets “()” denotes possible back-up frequency. GX L-band is integral, Epic will be dependent on hardware and operator. 4. GX will have near-Global coverage whilst Epic services can be integrated with Intelsat’s conventional global satellite coverage.
Note:
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
Product Mix Installation, Support & Maintenance
Volumes Relationships with Wholesalers
Competitive Landscape Capacity Acquisition & Management Infrastructure Investment Decisions Value Added Services
Customer Balance Network Structure
Sales Channels & Relationships Investment Decisions & Risk Profile
14
The Rising Tide of VSAT Services Digital Ship Korea, Seoul – 30.10.2012
15
There will be room for many players, but also consolidation
The maritime VSAT world is going to change radically, soon
Scale will bring opportunities in commoditisation
Broadband at sea is inevitable and is driving multiple innovations
There will be massive customer choice
But there will also be alternatives and value
But customers need to educate themselves
