InvestmentOutlook Q2 2018

Shanghai Commercial BankWealth Management

Buckle UpTariff threats that might escalate into global trade war have spooked the market. While the direct impact of Trump’s proposal is estimated to be minimal, its second-order impacts from retaliatory measures could come with more substantial costs for the global economy down the road.

Risk aversion is a theme that is set to persist over the near term. Safe-haven bids would lend support to the USD and the JPY. The EUR will remain relatively calm, on the back of bright economic prospects, attractive asset valuations, and talks about ECB’s imminent rate hike. The same cannot be said about the commodity-bloc currencies like Aussie and Kiwi. The high yielders could have another leg down, before a potential turn in risk appetite later this year revives their demand. GBP has come a long way already. As UK Prime Minister May’s red lines run into the cold reality of facts, GBP will be struggling to regain its lustre.

Global Market and Currency Outlook

Asset Managers’ Corner – UBS Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited

Valuations remain reasonableWhile valuations have risen, we are still optimistic on prospects for 2018 and believe valuations currently look reasonable compared to fundamentals. Different from previous years, fundamental factors have been behind the recent rise in the market and we see little reason for that to change in 2018.

Slower GDP, deleveraging policy not a concernWe aren't overly concerned about the possibility of slower growth in China during 2018. It's true that deleveraging is part of government policy in 2018 but private companies, most of whom have excellent cash flow and little or no debt, look like attractive opportunities. Old economy companies with high debt levels, will likely feel pressure.

Fundamental factors are driving performanceHealth, IT and consumer sectors have their own fundamental growth drivers that are propelling growth as China undergoes profound economic and social changes and these drivers are largely unaffected by slight changes in China's macroeconomic statistics.

Take healthcare as an example, there is an undersupply of health services in China but demand is growing due to fundamental changes in China's economy and society, such as ageing population, increasing incomes, and changing lifestyle aspirations.

Spending on health remains low by international standards but this is changing as these fundamental factors play out. In fact, we have seen strong growth in industry revenues in recent years and we expect this to continue as health spending per capita increases and potentially exceeds levels in more developed economies.

New economy sectors are emerging; Chinese firms are becoming more competitiveChina's economy is seeing profound changes with many new sectors emerging from economic rebalancing that have great potential for growth over the long-term.

We have witnessed these changes first-hand from our numerous visits to companies in China. Chinese companies are attracting the talent, building the innovative capacity, and developing the products to compete globally.

Take our recent visit to a China-based pharmaceutical developer for example. At that company, world-class scientists previously at global rivals now lead their drug and product development. This shows the company has the potential to recruit the best talent that will soon deliver a range of advanced, globally competitive products.

Improving corporate governance in China will also promote investors’ understanding of the Chinese companies. We believe that the quality of companies currently in the Chinese equity markets is much higher than before, and that raises the prospect of sustained performance in the markets over the longer term.

Source: Shanghai Commercial Bank Limited

So we are positive on the outlook for Chinese equities markets in 2018. We maintain that the profound changes playing out in China's economy are creating many attractive opportunities, particularly in 'new economy' sectors like healthcare, IT and insurance. Investors can be confident about the future because a changing China is offering significant opportunities for growth.

Source: UBS Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited

DISCLAIMERThis document and its contents have not been reviewed by, delivered to or registered with any regulatory or other relevant authority in any jurisdiction. This document is for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or invitation to the public, direct or indirect, to buy or sell securities. This document is intended for limited distribution and only to the extent permitted under applicable laws in any jurisdiction. No representations are made with respect to the eligibility of any recipients of this document to acquire interests in securities under the laws of any jurisdiction.

Using, copying, redistributing or republishing any part of this document without prior written permission from UBS Asset Management is prohibited. Any statements made regarding investment performance objectives, risk and/or return targets shall not constitute a representation or warranty that such objectives or expectations will be achieved or risks are fully disclosed. The information and opinions contained in this document is based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no responsibility is accepted for any misrepresentation, errors or omissions. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. A number of comments in this document are based on current expectations and are considered “forward-looking statements”. Actual future results may prove to be different from expectations and any unforeseen risk or event may arise in the future. The opinions expressed are a reflection of UBS Asset Management’s judgment at the time this document is compiled and any obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise is disclaimed.

You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. The information in this document does not constitute advice and does not take into consideration your investment objectives, legal, financial or tax situation or particular needs in any other respect. Investors should be aware that past performance of investment is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Potential for profit is accompanied by possibility of loss. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.

Source for all data and charts (if not indicated otherwise): UBS Asset Management.© UBS 2018. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.

Source: Shanghai Commercial Bank Limited

Outlook for Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter

After hitting a record high of 33,484 points in January this year, the HSI fell sharply in February, with a fluctuation range of more than 4,000 points, reversing the upward trend that lasted for four consecutive months. Subsequently the market kept fluctuating during March. Global corporate profits have generally risen, and the valuations of Hong Kong stocks are lower than stocks among most major stock markets, which is attractive to foreign investors when the profit growth rate has reached a low double-digit level. Considering that the restructuring featuring the “same share with different rights” is to be implemented during the year, MSCI's inclusion into A-shares, full circulation of H-shares and other positive news which have not yet been fully reflected at the current price level, we hold a cautiously optimistic view on the medium to long-term perspective.

According to the trend chart analysis, the HSI has surged upward wave upon wave since 2016, and if, technically, it does not fall below the 28,000-point level, the bull market will continue, and we expect the Hong Kong stocks will continue to fluctuate in the uptrend pattern at the beginning of the second quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, the Index is expected in a range between 29,200-32,000 points. However, if Hong Kong stocks are affected by external fluctuations and short-term adjustments are made, the HSI may fall to a level around 28,000 points, which provides a good opportunity to buy stocks at a low price. Due to the sound economic tone, it is expected that the Hong Kong stocks will resume their uptrend once the external situation has become clear.

In terms of sectors, we maintain our positive view on domestic financial stocks this year. Domestic banking and insurance sectors enjoy favourable state policies, whereas focuses of the market, high-tech, pharmaceutical, and gambling sectors still have the potential of rising. Investing in leading companies of these sectors can be considered.

In addition, the risks involved in changes in the external political and economic conditions cannot be ignored. The pace of interest rate increase after the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board took office, the trade policy of the US, the situation of EU after Brexit and China's deleveraging speed deserve attention.

The fluctuation is expected to continue at the beginning of the quarter; valuation is attractive with thegrowth of Hong Kong stocks.

Optimistic on 2018, many opportunities in the market

SCB 2018 Q1 Top 10 Best-Selling Funds*

4 20/2/2014 0.48 7.52 4.92 0.57 2.83 2.88 2.56 1.39USD1,203.91

4 6/11/2000 3.13 14.23 -1.46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEUR6,140

4 18/8/2014 8.20 47.58 -18.50 -2.38 N/A N/A 28.21 0.40USD198.2

4 22/6/2009 5.24 30.71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AUSD495.5

4 19/6/2006 8.40 48.60 -11.50 -0.83 33.27 5.31 30.59 0.53USD1,079.2

3 30/9/2016 4.35 12.96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AUSD193

4 15/11/1996 10.85 59.70 -2.29 16.49 N/A N/A 21.99 1.18USD4,403.12

4 31/3/2014 -1.31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEUR

747.08

4 27/3/2012 1.36 10.04 15.90 6.14 1.02 1.20 6.09 1.63USD5,324.5

4 8/6/2015 4.56 25.81 2.04 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AUSD309.78

AB FCP I - MortgageIncome

Portfolio - AT/USDInvesco Pan European

Structured Equity Fund - A/monthly distribution

-1/USD HedgedJPMorgan China

A - Share Opportunities

Fund - A/Acc/USD

JPMorgan China Income - mth/USD

JPMorgan China Pioneer A - Share

Pictet HK - Pictet Strategic

Income - P/USD/dm

UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - China

Opportunity (USD) - P/Mdist/USD

Value Partners Greater China High Yield Income Fund -

P/MDis/USD

UBS (Lux) Key Selection SICAV - European Growth

and Income (EUR) - P/6Pct/Mdist/USD Hedged

UBS (Lux) Key Selection SICAV - China Allocation

Opportunity (USD) - P/6Pct/Mdist/USD

ProductRisk

Rating

FundInception

Date1

FundAUM1

($m)

YTDCumulative

Returns2 (%)

2017Calendar

YearReturns2 (%)

2016Calendar

YearReturns2 (%)

2015Calendar

YearReturns2 (%)

2014Calendar

YearReturns2 (%)

2013Calendar

YearReturns2 (%)

3-YearAnnualisedVolatility2

(%)

3-YearSharpeRatio2

• *“SCB 2018 Q1Top 10 Best-Selling Funds” lists the top 10 best-selling funds among all funds distributed by Shanghai Commercial Bank Limited (the “Bank”) during 1 January 2018 to 15 March 2018, based on the total subscription and switching amount (in HKD or equivalent) for each fund. The funds shown in the table under “SCB 2018 Q1 Top 10 Best-Selling Funds” are sorted by ascending alphabetical order, without reference to the total subscription amount involved for each fund. Result of the Top 10 Best-Selling Funds is provided for information and reference only and is not intended to constitute any investment advice or opinion. The funds referred to in this document constitute only a portion of the funds that are available for distribution from the Bank and references to such funds in this document do not constitute recommendations over any other fund available from the Bank.

• The data used to calculate the year to date cumulative returns are as of 15 March 2018.• Fund inception date refers to the fund’s first share class inception date.• Shanghai Commercial Bank Limited Product Risk Rating ("Product Risk Rating") is assigned by the Bank to each distributing investment fund in a scale of 1 to

5, with 1 indicating the lowest risk category and 5 being the highest. Product Risk Rating of each investment fund is assigned by the Bank according to its product features and corresponding risk factors. The categorization results may be different from those provided by the respective fund houses. The Bank may revise the Product Risk Rating assigned to an investment fund from time to time without prior notice. For more information on the Product Risk Rating and the respective investment preference, please visit your nearest Shanghai Commercial Bank Limited branch.

• Volatility is a statistical measure of risk. The above 3 year volatility has been annualised for comparison and is calculated by using the annualised standard deviation of the monthly returns during 1 March 2015 to 28 February 2018.

• Risk relative to return can be measured by 3-year Sharpe Ratio. Sharpe Ratio at the table above is a measure of the fund’s performance against the 3-month US Treasury bill rate (risk free investment return), adjusted for risk. A relatively high positive ratio indicates that the fund has a relatively high risk-adjusted return historically. Data is calculated by using the returns from 1 March 2015 to 28 February 2018.

• In respect of each relevant fund, the returns were calculated based on the principle of NAV-to-NAV of the relevant fund, with reinvestment of all dividends (if any). Only the funds that have an investment track record of at least 6 months as of the information captured date will have their percentage returns displayed.

• Certain funds may have significant exposure in financial derivatives instruments. Risks associated with these instruments include among other risks, counterparty risk, credit risk and liquidity risk. Such exposure may lead to a high risk of loss of all or part of the invested capital.

• The returns are denominated in relevant fund currency (which may be foreign currency). Investors may be exposed to exchange rate fluctuations which may cause the value of investments to go up or down. The value and income of your investment can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than invested.

• The fund(s) mentioned above has been authorized by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong (the "SFC"). SFC authorization is not a recommendation or endorsement of a fund nor does it guarantee the commercial merits of a fund or its performance. It does not mean the fund is suitable for all investors nor is it an endorsement of its suitability for any particular investor or class of investors. The information herein contained has not been reviewed by the SFC.

Remarks:

1 Source: AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, Allianz Global Investors Hong Kong Limited, BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited, UBS Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited, as of 31 January 2018

2 Source: Bloomberg, as of 28 February 2018

• The following risk disclosure statement cannot disclose all the risks involved and does not take into account any circumstances that are unknown to the Bank. Investment involves risks. Securities, Investment fund and Bonds are investment products. The price of investment products may go up or down and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of subscribing and redeeming investment products. Any past performance figures shown are not indicative of futures performance. Part of the investment may not be able to liquidate immediately under certain market situation. Customers should refer to relevant offering documents for detailed information, as well as Risk Disclosures, prior to any investment subscription. The products described herein may not be suitable for all people. The decisions to invest are made by customers and customers should not invest in investment products unless the intermediary selling them has explained to them that the product is suitable for them having regard to customers’ financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives. Customers should not make any investment decisions based on this document alone. Customers must make their own assessment of the information provided in this document. Customers should carefully consider whether any investment products or services mentioned herein are appropriate for them in view of their financial situations, investment experiences and investment objectives. If customers have any doubt about this material or any relevant offering document, they should consult their own independent advisers on the legal, regulatory, tax, investment and financial implications of the investments as they deem appropriate to ensure that they understand the nature of the investments in order to consider whether the investments are suitable investments for them.

• Investment Risk in Securities: The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Customers must ensure to read and understand the information of Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect A-shares trading of the Bank including relevant details, trading rules, risk, fees, restriction and notices before investing in Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect A-shares trading.

• Investment Risk in Unit Trust: The price of investment funds may go up or down and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of subscribing and redeeming investment funds. Investment involves risks. Any past performance figures shown are not indicative of futures performance. Part of the investment may not be able to liquidate immediately under certain market situation. Customers should refer to relevant investment fund offering documents for detailed information, as well as Risk Disclosures, prior to any investment fund subscription. Customers should carefully consider whether any investment products or services mentioned herein are appropriate for them in view of their financial situations, investment experiences and investment objectives. Please refer to explanatory memorandum or relevant materials of the fund for further information. The subscription of investment fund is subjected to prevailing regulatory requirements and restrictions and relevant terms and conditions of the Bank. The Bank acts as a distributor of the funds managed by fund housed and the funds are the product of the third party fund houses. For distribution of funds – in respect of an eligible dispute (as defined in the Terms of Reference for the Financial Dispute Resolution Centre in relation to the Financial Dispute Resolution Scheme) arising between the Bank and the customers out of the selling process or processing of the related transaction, the Bank is required to enter into a Financial Dispute Resolution Scheme process with the customers; however any dispute over the contractual terms of the product should be resolved directly between the third party fund house and the customers.

• Investment Risk in Bonds: Bond investments are not bank deposits and involve risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Customers in bonds denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, which may cause a loss of principal. Unless specified, these investments are not obligations of or guaranteed by the Bank. The price of bonds may go up or down and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of subscribing and redeeming bonds. The Bank does not guarantee the existence of a secondary market for bonds. Part of the investment may not be able to liquidate immediately under certain market situation. Customers should refer to relevant bonds offering documents for detailed information, as well as Risk Disclosures, prior to any bonds subscription.

• RMB is subject to exchange rate risk (only applicable to Individual Customers): RMB is currently not freely convertible. Customers should be realized that they can conduct conversion of RMB at CNH rate through bank accounts, for which it is subject to the requirements specified by the Relevant Authorities from time to time, the requirements specified by the Bank and/ or the RMB position and commercial decisions of the Bank at that moment. RMB Conversion Limitation Risk (only applicable to Corporate Customers): RMB is currently not freely convertible. Corporate Customers should be realized that they can conduct conversion of RMB through bank accounts, for which it is subject to the requirements specified by the Relevant Authorities from time to time, the requirements specified by the Bank and/ or the RMB position and commercial decisions of the Bank at that moment. RMB investments are subject to exchange rate fluctuations which may provide both opportunities and risks. The fluctuation in the exchange rate of RMB may result in losses in the event that the customer converts RMB into HKD or other foreign currencies. If your home currency is different from the Investment Fund currency or the Investment Fund's reference currency, changes in currency exchange rates may erode your investment gains or widen your investment losses.

• The information of this document has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong or any regulatory authorities in Hong Kong.

Investment Risk Disclosure

• This document is issued and solely owned by the Bank. This document is for general information and reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, invitation, advice or recommendation to subscribe, trade, redeem or sell for any deposits or investments. No representation, guarantee or other assurance as to the outcome of any investment has been made or will be given to you by or on behalf of the Bank.

• Part of the information in this document is derived from third party sources and it may be incomplete and condensed. Although the information herein contained is obtained or compiled from sources the Bank believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified, the Bank cannot and does not represent or warrant the accuracy, validity, reliability, timeliness or completeness of any such information (whether in whole or in part) for any loss or damage howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of such information or opinions (unless due to the negligence or wilful default of the Bank, the Bank’s authorised officers, employees or agents). The Bank reserves the right to amend all or any part in this document, all views, forecasts and estimates constitute the judgments made before the publication date, and are subject to change without further notice. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed as forward-look-ing statements and may be affected by risks and uncertainties, actual results or events may differ materially from those projected, estimated, assumed or anticipated in any such forward-looking statements.

• The information herein contained may not bereproduced, quoted, distributed, disclosed or published (whether in whole or inpart) in any media for any purpose without prior express written consent from the Bank. The Bank accepts no liability for any loss arising from or in reliance upon such information or contents. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution would be contrary to the laws or regulations.

• The above offers are not applicable to the staff of the Bank. The above offers cannot be used in conjunction with other promotion offers that are not listed in this promotional material. The above offers are subjected to prevailing regulatory requirements and restrictions and relevant terms and conditions of the Bank, please refer to relevant materials or consult our staff. The Bank reserves the right to amend these terms and conditions or to amend, suspend or terminate all or any part of the offers. The Bank is entitled at its absolute discretion for the above rights without prior notice to customers. If any matters or disputes arise at any time in relation to the contents of the promotional offers, the Bank's relevant recordings / decisions / explanations shall be conclusive evidence of the offers. The decision of the Bank on all matters relating to this promotion and the relevant offers shall be final and binding on all parties concerned.

• The Bank and its affiliates or subsidiaries, and/or their officers, directors, agents and employees may have positions in and may trade for their own account in all or any of the securities or investments mentioned in this document. Companies within the Bank may have provided investment services or underwritten in relation to these securities. Commission or other fees may be earned by the Bank respect of the services provided by them relating to these securities or investments.

• In case of any inconsistency between the Chinese and English versions of this promotional material, the English version shall prevail.

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