Scenarios

Gregg, Emily, Nasser, Rich, Spencer 12 March 2013, NatCap Olympics

Scenarios = Time & data-hungry, difficult, essential

Conceptual diagram

• Crawl before you walk

Best Coast Belize

Scenario Primer and Cases

InSEAM

Scenario Generator

Landcover Types Change Rules

Broadleaved tree plantation increase

along roads, in poor soils, on hilltops, difficult to cultivate areas, in and around cfrs & lfrs,

Coniferous plantation increase

along roads, in poor soils, on hilltops, difficult to cultivate areas, in and around cfrs & lfrs,

Tropical high forest increase

in and around cfrs and lfrs, not in nps

Degraded forest decreasein and around cfrs and lfrs, not in nps

Woodland increase outside pas

?

Link InVEST to IDRISI Land Change Modeler

Collaborators have approached us to:

1. Test NatCap’s scenarios tools– E.g. Scenarios Work Package, UK National

Ecosystem Assessment

2. Link InVEST to Tier 3 scenario approaches– E.g Simile (Systems Dynamic Modeling)

3. Help share lessons from scenario applications– E.g S3 in New England, Harvard University

Break-out discussion

• What more work should we do on scenarios?

• Should scenarios be embedded in trainings?– If so, what would that look like?

• Which initiatives & partners should we collaborate with?