Back to the Future -

The P P P Way

Prepared & Presented

by

Dr. Stephen Lee

PhD, EMBA, MSc, BSc

About the Title

Back to the Future – We visit and

revisit our future scenario plan

The P P P Way – When we visit and

revisit our future scenario plan, we

have to link the Past and the Present

plans to the Plausible Future plan

About this case

Main Purpose – To demonstrate a

technique for planning the future

scenario of a company

About the Case

Carried out for a Singapore seafood

company

10-year plan is very long-term!!

ContentsThe Company :

- Core purpose / Core Values / Vision /

Mission / Goals / Credo / SWOT Analysis /

What are important ? What are uncertain ?

Focal Issue

Driving Forces

Likely Driving Forces

Assumptions

Scenarios

Implication and Impact

Desirable Scenarios

Strategic Linkage

Sign Posts / Early Indicators

“Light Bulb” Factor

The Company

Univers-Markt Enterprise Pte

Ltd

- The Business : Seafood Trade

since 1985

The World the Market

The Globe the Limit

Core Purpose

To conduct business by

supplying protein-rich seafood

for the betterment of mankind

Core Values

Common passion for eating

seafood and serve customers

with their love-seafood-passion

Vision

Vision 2010 – Charting the right

course by setting the bearing and

steering the seafood business in

the 21st century by means of auto-

mation, technology, value-added

products and globalization.

Mission

>To conduct business by supplying

protein-rich seafood for the

betterment of mankind

> To add more value to customer

by continuously improving product

quality

Mission (cont.)

To globalize market in new

economy

To enhance work processes by using latest information and

communication technology for

better efficiency and effective-

ness in serving customers

Goals / Objectives

> To upgrade business knowledge

and operational skill of company’s

personnel by using latest

information and communication

technologies including the internet,

with the ultimate aim of converting

existing personnels to a better

knowledge-based and skill-based

workforce within a continuously

learning organization.

Goals / Objectives

To enhance product image

by strengthening brand

equity through better

product quality

To enlarge market by

using latest information-age

technologies

GROWTH Credo

Goal - Always set goal in what we do or wish to achieve

Resource - Make full and proper use of whatever resources we have or available to us

Opportunity - Seize any good oppor-

tunity we encounter along our way in doing business

GROWTH Credo

Willing - Show willingness in identifying our weakness, and in achieving our goal

Threat / Time-frame - Identify what are our threats, and always give ourselves a time-frame in achieving our set goal

Humility - Show humility after we have achieved our goal or success, or whatever we do

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

> Core competency

Niche market player

Product marketing focus

Lean organization

Quick decision-making

SWOT Analysis

Weaknesses

Reactive, instead of proactive, in

technological change

Bias in market development due to con-

straint in resources

Slow in building knowledge-based & skill-based workforce

SWOT analysis

Opportunity

Trade - Freer world trade

Economy - Faster economic growth in

both supplying and

consuming countries

SWOT Analysis

Threats

Trade - Barriers , substitutes

Environment - “Green” campaign

What Are Important ?

Core values

Core competency & capability

Niche market player

Product marketing focus / brand equity

Lean & learning organization

Proper usage of technology

What are Uncertain ?

Economic condition

Trade system

Environmental impact

Social influence

What is the Focal Issue ?

How does our

organization do the

seafood business in year

2010 in this fast

changing world ?

The Driving Forces

Economy

Trade

Environment

Society

Politics

Technology

Demography

The Likely Driving Forces

Economy

Trade

The Assumptions

World Economic Condition

- Good & faster growth

- Bad & slower growth

World Trade System

- Free

- Restricted

The Scenario Matrix free

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Silver Pomfret Pink Salmon

Trade

Bad economy Good

Scenario 4 Scenario 3

Muddy Catfish Black Pomfret

restricted

The Scenarios

Scenario 1 - “ Silver Pomfret “

( The north-west quadrant)

The economy is bad with slow growth though the

market is enjoying free trade. The movement of

goods between countries are not restricted at all,

but consumption is slow with consumers having

less disposable income and poor buying power.

Though we are able to sell to many parts of the

world, our sales volume suffers, and thus

business performance declines.

The Scenarios

Scenario 2 - “ Pink Salmon “

( The north-east quadrant )

This scenario represent good and fast economic

growth with market enjoying free trade

between countries. Goods are able to be sold

freely to all markets. Consumers are happy

with better purchasing power due to more

disposable income. Business outlook is “pink”

and rosy, with climbing up business

performance. World economy is bullish.

The Scenarios

Scenario 3 - “ Black Pomfret”

( The south-east quadrant )

In this scenario trade is restricted due to tariff

and/or non-tariff barriers in many parts of the

world, though economic condition is good and

growth is fast. Economic growth is highly

regional within each trade block. Thus sales of

goods is highly regional with less inter-

regional business. Industry is happy with

intra-regional trade, but disappointed with

inter-regional business.

The Scenarios

Scenario 4 - “ Muddy Catfish “

( The south-west quadrant )

In this scenario, the economy is bad with

slow growth, and trade is restricted with

tariff and non-tariff barriers between

regions and trade blocks. Consumers’

purchasing power is poor due to lesser

disposable income. There are many

unhappy people around, with world

economy sinks into recession and bearish.

Implications & Impact

Scenario 1 - “ Silver Pomfret “ ( The north-west

Quadrant )

> Goods are able to be sold to all parts of the

world due to free trade.

Goods can be sold at cheaper price due to non-

existence of tariff & non-tariff barriers.

Non-existence of trade conflict between

countries and trade blocks

Ideal trade globalization.

Trade volume is less due to bad and slow

economy.

Implications & impact

Scenario 2 - “ Pink Salmon “

( The north-east quadrant )

Goods are able to be sold to all parts of the

world due to free trade

Goods can be sold at cheaper price due to non-

existence of tariff & non-tariff barriers

Non-existence of trade conflict between

countries and trade blocks

Ideal trade globalization

Trade volume increases due to good and fast

growing economy

Business is “pink” and rosy.

Implications & Impact

Scenario 3 - “ Black Pomfret “

( The south-east quadrant )

Economic growth is highly regionalized

Trade within each region or trade block is

good

Trade between regions and trade blocks is

disappointed

Difficult to do trade with many trade blocks

and thus have to restrict to doing business

with regions having closer trade policy

Trade volume will be affected

Implications & Impact

Scenario 4 - “ Muddy Catfish “

( The south-west quadrant )

Consumers purchasing power is poor due to

lesser disposable income

Difficult for consumers to purchase goods

from other regions or trade blocks

World trade suffers

Economy sinks into recession

Business volume decreases

Profitability suffers

The Desirable Scenarios

(1). The first desirable scenario at 2010 –

Scenario 1 – “ Silver Pomfret “ at the

north-west quadrant

(2). The second desirable scenario at 2010 –

Scenario 2 – “ Pink Salmon “ at the

north-east quadrant

Strategy Linkage

To source for better quality product at more

competitive price

To enhance product image by strengthening brand

equity through better product quality

To be proactive in responding to technological change

To enlarge market by using latest information and

communication technologies (ICT)

To upgrade business knowledge & operational skill by

using latest technologies with the aim of converting the

existing personnel to a better knowledge-based and

skill-based workforce within a continuously learning

organization

Sign Posts (Early Indicators)

With WTO as driver, the trend is for the

world to move toward freer trade

There is trend that the engine of growth in

next decade is by way of freer trade.

GDP/GNP as sign posts

Trade figures, both imports and exports

Unemployment figures

Interest rates

Inflation rates

“ Light Bulb “ Factor

The scenario 1 ( Silver Pomfret ) for year

2010 is likely to move to scenario 2 (Pink

Salmon ) in year 2013/14/15 “hopefully !”

(Light Bulb factor – Is the first plausible

scenario showing the way to the next likely

scenario??)

Back to The Future – The P P P Way

End of lecture

Q & A