Scenario Building(2)

8/13/2019 Scenario Building(2)

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How do you prepare for disasters …

There are several methodsBased on past experienceLocally and internationallyThe event – its positive actions and negative actions

Based on research findingsBased on future predictions

Predictions of disaster events and their extentGlobal warming and islands going under the see

Based on anticipation Anticipated outcomes based on SCENARIOS


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Two Questions ………………………..

Who is V. Sharman?

What did he do?


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Vishnu Sharman was a grate sage wholived in India.He wrote the epic tale of “PanchaTantraya”Through the verses or stories of the“Pancha Tantraya” the sage was able to

teach the stupid princes of the art andscience of governance.


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What is a SCENARIO“A situation” to be simple“ A situation of eventsbased on probability”


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Define …………………………………MURPHY’S Law

“IF ANYTHING CAN GO WRONG,

IT WILL”!


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What is a “Worst Case Scenario”Is an extreme situation that

is hypothesized based onthe worst possible outcome/ outcomes that may occur.


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Example of a SCENARIO“A passenger bus coming from Kurunegala today morning (Monday the 29 th of December), has run intothe train at the rail crossing. Several persons have diedand several dozens of persons have succumbed injuriesfollowing this incident. The accident victims have beentaken to the Kurunegala and Ragama Hospitals fortreatment and some are in critical condition”


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What do you observe in thisSCENARIO

A disastrous event has occurred with many fatal and nonfatal casualties

Since it is a Monday – there will be lot of vehicles in theroad and transportation of the victims to the hospital will not be much of a problem

Again the hospital will be full of medical officers and

other staff – therefore no problem will be there in thetreatment


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If preparedness is based on this

event . We cant be certain that should a more

CATASTROPHICEVENToccur the response will be the same.


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Therefore………………………………….In the preparedness phase we have to

prepare for the worst possible situationthat could happen, so that once we areprepared for the worst possiblesituation we can fully manage a lesssevere condition with relative ease.


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How do you transform this“SCENARIO” to a “WORST CASE

SCENARIO”Select the worst possible disaster situation wheremaximum number of casualties can be affected

RTA / Dam burst / reservoir TSUNAMI / CycloneSelect the worst possible time

Time of yearDay of the weekTime of the day

Select the instance where the hospital is most vulnerableSunday or Public HolidayNight time or early morning


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Now lets transform the previous

SCENARIODisaster situation

Train and bus collisionDue to collision the several compartments of the trainhave derailed and capsized and the bus has explodedand burntMany hundred injured ranging from scratches tomultiple fractures to severe burns

Several dozens dead Victims still trapped in the train wreckage and the firehas spread to some of the train compartmentsThe train crossing and the two roads are fully blocked


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Time ……………………………………….

It is Saturday the 15th

of April, the New year had beenon the 13th and 14th . The accident had occurred around5.30 PM. All the government servants from police and fire

brigade to the hospital staff are on minimal stand by asthey will be on vacation leave


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Hospital ……………………………………Only house officers and on call medical officersMight have no surgeons, anesthetists and theater staff

as long weekend and no routine theater lists Ambulance staff at a minimumNursing staff on a minimum


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E.G two .. Worst Case ScenarioBlast incident at a Mall in ColomboTime – 3.30 PM

Date – December 23rd

Sunday


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What is the problemBlastDuring off time

On a week end

Couldn't be much of a problem


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But2 days to ChristmasLast Sunday before Christmas

People packed to the brim on last minuetShoppingSunday – Hospitals empty

No medical officers / nursesLeave / PH off / VacationNo ambulance drivers

Bloody mess


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Exercise

Design a case scenario for your place of workConsider all possible disaster events that have anypossibility of occurring in your area and plot the worstpossible disaster scenario in order to be prepared.Do this exercise for all the possible disaster situationsin your area and do this as a group so that there ispooling of ideas and “brain storming” involved


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Thank you

Documents

Scenario Building(2)