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Scenarios: Very Serious Fiction 1950 ’s Developed by RAND for U.S. Military World War III 1960 ’s Modified as business tool by Herman Kahn Doomsday Machine & Cold War Toda y University of Houston Clear Lake Kiski area schools in Pittsburgh

MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

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Slides for an online blended learning course for the Maryland Vision Quest group.

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Page 1: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

Scenarios: Very Serious Fiction

1950’s

•Developed by RAND for U.S. Military

•World War III

1960’s

•Modified as business tool by Herman Kahn

•Doomsday Machine & Cold War

Today

•University of Houston Clear Lake

•Kiski area schools in Pittsburgh

Page 2: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

Why Build Scenarios

Page 3: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

How to Build Scenarios: The Process

Identify2

ProduceReduce

Match

Create

Select

Page 4: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

How to Build Scenarios: Perspectives

Miracle Optimistic Status Quo Pessimistic Disaster

Page 5: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

How to Build Scenarios: Methods

Page 6: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building
Page 7: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building
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Other Methods: Fortunately / Unfortunately

Page 9: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

Other Methods: Scenario Construction for Forecasting

Figure 2: The Process of Scenario Formulation, p. 40. Forge, Blackman, Bohlin.

Page 10: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

Preparing to PracticeClaim your space and use the text tool to share one library trend that you brought with you

Page 11: MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building

Breakout Group Recap

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Limitations to Scenario Building