Prescillano C. Seno Jr.Municipal Coordinator-Hernani and BalangkayanPlan International

Review on Contingency Planning/Worst Case Scenario Building

Referring to specific threats Presence of early warning/trend Achieving readiness to respond Premium on rapidity and appropriateness Emphasizes inter-agency coordination Not a mere academic exerciseIn Brief: Contingency Plan

Scanning the EnvironmentGenerating Scenarios(Anatomy of emergency)Predicting NeedsEmploy indicatorsTaking stock Of ResourcesArranging Response System & ActionsSetting policies and sectoral objectivesIdentify GapsEndorsement/ Updating /Testing & ActivationTHE PROCESS

Scanning the Environment

Scanning the Environment

PAST EVENTS- what- when- wherePOTENTIAL HAZARDS/RISK- probability- impactScanning the EnvironmentB. HAZARD/DISASTER PROFILE BUILDING

Defining the Event to Plan forCriteria*Probability to occur (P)* Will create the most Impact (I)Scanning the Environment

Hazard ID and Risk Assessment Group CP Form 1 Legend:P ProbabilityI Impact

RISK RATING SCALE 1 Most unlikely1 Negligible 2 Low Probability2 Low Impact 3 Perhaps 3 Minimal Impact 4 High Probability4 High Impact5 Almost Certain5 Devastating

Scanning the Environment

RANKHAZARDPIREMARKSAVERAGE

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

By this time you should have arrived at one particular emergency that is agreed to be the one that the local must plan for Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Part-1Draw a location mapPut important landmarksState & describe the emergency event Draw the event in the map..Part-2Determine the root cause/sIdentify the triggerList down the observable early warning signalsDrawing the Anatomy of the Event to plan for Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Event to Plan for _______________________ Group ____CP Form 2 Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Root CausesEarly WarningTriggering FactorsDRR Measures(P / M / R)

What scenarios do we plan for? Different shapes of possible emergency Scenarios to which your School is likely to respond.3 of the most plausible scenarios (Bad, Worse & Worst) Plan for the worst case scenarioThe plausibility or probability of each scenario should be communicated to other offices to assess the urgency and preparedness actions. Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Stating Scenarios Bad, Worse, WorstAssumptions form the foundation of each scenario and should be made explicit so others can understand the reasoning. Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

ASSUMPTIONS: KANLAON VOLCANO

ScenarioWorst CaseDescription of the eventVolcanic eruption reaching Alert Level 5Impact on social sectorFamilies directly affectedDeathsInjuriesMissingHouses damaged 20,943 households 3,000 persons 20,000 persons 3,000 persons 31,000 houses damaged due to pyroclastic flow 3,500 houses damaged due to lahar flow P5.2 Billion worth of damaged housesImpact on AgricultureSugarcaneLivestockFisheriesOthers P2.5 Billion worth of damage in agriculture

Event to Plan for _______________________ Group ____CP Form 3 Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

S C E N A R I OSITUATIONSBad CaseWorse CaseWorst CaseDescription of Event/occurenceDeath/InjuryAffected PopulationEffects on Housing, Properties and LivelihoodEffects on Infra and FacilitiesResponse Capabilities

No. of Population likely to be affected: _____________________CP Form 4 Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Setting Policies and Objectives

General Policies- Defines vision and direction of operation- Defines areas of responsibilities- Reference for operation- General in nature, less controversy- Should be acceptable to all partiesSetting Policies and Objectives

Important Policies to Consider

Global norms

- Declaration of World Leaders during the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held on January 18 22, 2005, Kobe, Japan - Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities for Action 2005 2010

- UN Milennium Development Goals (UNMDGs)

Setting Policies and Objectives

- SPHERE Project on Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response

- United Nations Convention on Refugee Status - UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (UNGPID) - IFRCs International Disaster Response Laws, Rules and Principles (IDRL) - ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER)

- UN Cluster Approach for Humanitarian ResponseSetting Policies and Objectives Important Policies to Consider Global norms

Setting Policies and Objectives Important Policies to Consider LOCAL NORMS LOCAL NORMS

- RA 10121

- Local Government Code of 1991

- Other local legislations/issuances

INSTRUCTIONS:1. You may ask each group to formulate at least two (2) policy statements on the following areas of concern : Resource AllocationCoordination (GO NGO Private Sector)Standards in Humanitarian AssistanceHuman Security (for responders) Setting Policies and Objectives

Resource Allocation / Human Security (for responders)

Coordination (GO NGO Private Sector)

Standards in Humanitarian Assistance Setting Policies and Objectives

Identifying GapsPROJECTED NEEDS VS. EXISTING RESOURCES

Brainstorm on all tasks in emergency responseGroup them into major clusters of task and arrange verticallyList horizontally all agencies/ parties to be involved in the responseLink the clusters with agenciesDetermine who are the coordinatorsTask AnalysisIdentifying Gaps

GAP ID MATRIXT A S K S / N E E D SAGENCIES LIKELY TO BE INVOLVED

Result of Task Analysis: A gap analysis matrix containing what will be accomplished by who by whenIdentifying Gaps

Identifying Gaps

Main Points Many problems facing emergency managers point to the need for more openness towards coordination, starting from indicators as common DENOMINATION

It is important to shift the focus from We, the responders to They, the people who need help

Standard indicators are valuable tools in all of these regards, but they must be balanced with common senseIdentifying Gaps

SECTORS / CLUSTERS

SAR

WASH

Evacuation Center Management

Food

Communications / Security

Engineering

Food & nutrition Health/Medical Water & sanitation Temporary shelter Evacuation Center Management Transportation Communications and Warning DANA SAR Engineering Command, Control & Coordination On-Scene Incident ManagementThe Sectors / ClustersIdentifying Gaps

Some Emergency Indicators

Balance analysis of indicators with common sense!Identifying Gaps

Define sectoral objectives Present the sector / cluster organization (sector/cluster leads and members).Describe the sector/cluster tasks Describe the general situation in the sector when the event to plan for occursDefine the needs by comparing the existing resources vs. projected requirementsDetermine the sectoral indicators when appropriateDraw a flowchart of the sectors activities and how the tasks are distributed to sector members Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST MT LT)

Sectoral / Cluster PlanningIdentifying Gaps

X = minor (X) = major/leadCluster/Sector Plans and Arrangements CP Form 5 Task AnalysisIdentifying Gaps

Cluster/Sectoral Planning and ArrangementsCP Form 6 Needs and Activities Inventory Objective: To upgrade immediate/adequate relief/food assistance to affected familiesCluster/Sector _______________Identifying Gaps

Cluster/Sector Planning and ArrangementsCP Form 7 Resource Inventory Cluster /Sector_______________Identifying Gaps

Cluster /Sector Planning and ArrangementsCP Form 8 Needs Projection and Resource Gap Identification Cluster/Sector _______________Identifying Gaps

Concept of Operation (Flow Chart)Sector: ______________

Arranging Response Systems and ActionsCoordination

Mock Coordination MeetingElect one chairpersonSimulate a coordination meeting Sectoral presentationPutting them together into a coherent planTake note of possible gaps

CONSOLIDATION OF THE DRAFT CONTINGENCY PLAN Integrate the otherwise fragmented sectoral plans into a coherent contingency plan (drafting stage) A three-man committee may be constituted to consolidate the draft contingency plan based on the standard Contingency Plan format Follow-up of the draft plan regular and monitoring meetings, updating of facts and assumptions

Endorsement and Activation

Endorsement - Activation When the plan has been finalized, have the group actually submit the PLAN to relevant authorities . . . Local Chief Executive/Chairman-LDCC . . . Local Sanggunian Provide sufficient justification to the local chief executive and local Sanggunian that in case such emergency takes place, the amount of resources specified in the plan will be required.

Endorsement - ActivationWho will put together the sectoral plans into a Contingency Plan?Which agency will follow through this plan (calling regular and monitoring meeting, updating the facts and assumptions, etc.)Who will monitor and report the early warning signalsHow the plan will be tested (table-top, hypothetical drill, full-fledged simulation?)When and how will the plan be activated?, reviewed, and updated (or staged down)

Steps Forward

Contingency Plan Format

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