Scenario building workshop

Dec 2009

2

Objectives of the workshop:

Impact

Intervention

Introduce different scenario building concepts and tools

Develop basic scenario building skills

Develop country and disaster scenarios

3

Concept:

Impact

Intervention

What is a scenario?

An account or synopsis of a possible course of events that could occur, which forms the basis for planning assumptions

Why are scenarios important?

Normally we base our plans on an assessment of the current situation.

But we do not know what the future will be like

So we use scenarios to try to understand what might happen in the future as a basis for contingency planning

4

Scenarios and emergencies

Impact

Intervention

How do scenarios relate to contingencies?

Each contingency can have a number of scenarios depending on the potential scale and nature of the contingency

Local D roughtLocal Im pact

National D roughtNational Im pact

R egional DroughtR egional Im pact

C ontingency:Drought

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Types of scenarios:

Impact

Intervention

Worst-case scenario

Best-case scenario

Most probable scenario

Representative scenario

Augmentation scenarios: These are scenarios where there is a gradual increase in the scale of a problem Most commonly used in refugee and displacement plans

One way to develop a scenario is by looking at previous crises or years (analogue years)

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What goes into a scenario?

Impact

Intervention

Hazard and resulting emergency

Likely Triggers

Risk Analysis

Population at Risk

Anticipated duration of emergency conditions

7

Main components:

Impact

Intervention

Hazard and resulting emergencies

Describe the hazard that the population faces and the probable resulting emergency that is likely to occur should the hazard affect them

Likely triggers: What early warning indicators and triggers can be identified? What conditions must be met in order for this scenario to occur? What indicators can be monitored by your organization?

Risk analysis: How likely is this scenario to occur? What will the consequences be should the scenario unfold? Use your risk ranking results!

8

Main components:

Impact

Intervention

Population at risk, including: Location Demographics Specific vulnerable groups Humanitarian issues and concerns Gender considerations HIV/AIDS prevalence

Anticipated duration of emergency conditions

9

Scenario check list:

Impact

Intervention

What areas are likely to be affected and what will be the geographical extent of the damage / crisis?

Numbers and percentage of population affected; population profile and demographics?

Gender considerations; specific vulnerable groups; and target beneficiaries?

What will be the impact on livelihoods? What will the specific sectoral impacts be?

How long are emergency conditions likely to last under this scenario?

Do the government / local authorities have prior experience in responding to the situation?

How will the scenario affect on-going operations? What other organizations are likely to respond to the emergency and in what way? What are likely to be the major constraints to an emergency response? What are likely to be the major gaps? What are the various factors (negative or mitigating) influencing the situation? What events could trigger this scenario? What are the early warning indicators that should be monitored?

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Exemples elements of a scenario:

Impact

Intervention

People will be totally cut off from food sources for 6 months. The main road out of the main port will be destroyed. Security conditions in the area may prevent access. National authorities are not expected to be able to provide for the humanitarian needs of the affected population.

Adapted scenarios: If there is other relevant information or assumptions which will ensure a clear and concise scenario, it should be included as well. The guidelines are not supposed to be a straight jacket.

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Link between scenarios and plan

Impact

Intervention

Assumption Action

Pasture will be limited due to

poor rains

Therefore, pastoralistswill not be able to

purchase or producesufficient food for the 3

months

Scenario Plan

As a result food aid for 3 months will be

distributed

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Linking scenarios to contingency plans

Impact

Intervention

Scenario Objective Response

Increased conflict in the region will result in thedisplacement of an estimated 100,000 people. Most of these people are expected to cross the border. Half will stay with host families, while half will be without shelter

Meet the shelter needs of50,000 refugees

Provide plastic sheeting for 10,000

Households

As a result of drought, pastoralists will migrate to areas with limited water and pasture resources. The increased number of animals around water points is likely to lead to increased animal disease and ultimately livestock deaths

Improve or maintain curative and preventative veterinary care for livestock, especially breeding stock

• Immunise 200,000 head of livestock• Provide essential medicines and veterinary support for 25,000 diseased animals

Food insecurity will lead to high levels of malnutrition in the affected population, especially among children

Maintain the nutritional status of children and other at-risk groups

• Distribute a dry take-home supplementary food ration through health centres to feed 125,000 malnourished children for six months

• Provide community-based therapeutic feeding for 15,000 severely malnourished children

As a result of the spoiling of wells by combatant groups, affected communities will not have access to potable water

Ensure adequate potable water for affected communities

• Implement a water tankering programme for 175,000 people for six months

• Provide water purification tablets for

1,000,000 people for three months

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Practical exercice

Impact

Intervention

Over the next 2 hours, each group will have to develop concise and clear scenarios for the following hazards:

Drought in XX Floods in XX Conflict and displacement in XX Conflict and displacement in XX