DERBY COUNTDOWN

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15

He’s Had Enough

ROAD TO THE 2013 KENTUCKY DERBY

KENTUCKY DERBY CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

KENTUCKY DERBY 2013 POINT STANDINGS

SUPER LOOK

DERBY COUNTDOWN BACK TO CONTENTS

DATE..........................RACE............................................ DISTANCE..................... TRACK................................. LOCATION....................WINNER.....................................................................1ST.......... 2ND............3RD........... 4TH

9/29/2012............Royal Lodge ......................1M (T) ...................Newmarket ..................England ................Steeler RECAP REPLAY .......................... 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

9/29/2012............FrontRunner .......................1 1/16M ................Santa Anita ..................California ..............Power Broker RECAP REPLAY ................ 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

10/6/2012............Breeders’ Futurity ..............1 1/16M (S) ...........Keeneland ...................Kentucky ..............Joha RECAP REPLAY .............................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

10/6/2012............Champagne .......................1M ........................Belmont .......................New York ..............Shanghai Bobby RECAP REPLAY ........... 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

10/7/2012............Grey ...................................1 1/16M (S) ...........Woodbine ....................Ontario ..................River Seven RECAP REPLAY .................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

11/3/2012............BC Juvenile .......................1 1/16M ................Santa Anita ..................California ..............Shanghai Bobby RECAP REPLAY ........... 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

11/17/2012..........Delta Downs Jackpot ........1 1/16M ................Delta Downs ................Louisiana ..............Goldencents RECAP REPLAY ................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

11/24/2012..........Remsen .............................1 1/8M ..................Aqueduct ....................New York ..............Overanalyze RECAP REPLAY ................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

11/24/2012..........Kentucky Jockey Club .......1 1/16M ................Churchill Downs ..........Kentucky ..............Uncaptured RECAP REPLAY ................... 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

12/15/2012..........CashCall Futurity ...............1 1/16M (S) ...........Hollywood Park ...........California ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

1/5/2013..............Sham .................................1M ........................Santa Anita ..................California ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

1/19/2013............Lecomte .............................1M 70 yds .............Fair Grounds ...............Louisiana ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

1/21/2013............Smarty Jones .....................1M ........................Oaklawn Park ..............Arkansas ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

1/26/2013............Holy Bull ............................1M ........................Gulfstream ...................Florida ..................................................................................... 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

2/2/2013..............Robert B. Lewis .................1 1/16M ................Santa Anita ..................California ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

2/2/2013..............Sam F. Davis ......................1 1/16M ................Tampa Bay Downs ......Florida ..................................................................................... 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

2/2/2013..............Withers ...............................1 1/16M ................Aqueduct ....................New York ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

2/16/2013............El Camino Real Derby .......1 1/8M (S) .............Golden Gate ................California ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

2/18/2013............Southwest ..........................1M ........................Oaklawn Park ..............Arkansas ................................................................................. 10 ...........4 ............2 ............ 1

Road to the 2013 Kentucky Derby

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RACE........................................................DISTANCE.............. TRACK.............................................LOCATION........................1ST................ 2ND................3RD.............4TH.

FIRST LEG OF SERIESRisen Star ...................................1 1/16M ...........Fair Grounds ........................Louisiana ...................50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

Fountain of Youth ........................1 1/16M ...........Gulfstream ............................Florida .......................50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

Gotham .......................................1 1/16M ...........Aqueduct .............................New York ...................50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

Tampa Bay Derby .......................1 1/16M ...........Tampa Bay Downs ...............Florida .......................50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

San Felipe ...................................1 1/16M ...........Santa Anita ...........................California ...................50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

Rebel ..........................................1 1/16M ...........Oaklawn ...............................Arkansas ...................50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

Spiral ..........................................1 1/8M (S) ........Turfway .................................Kentucky ...................50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

Sunland Derby ............................1 1/8M .............Sunland Park ........................New Mexico ..............50 ............. 20 .............10 .............5

SECOND LEG OF SERIESFlorida Derby ..............................1 1/8M .............Gulfstream Park ...................Florida .....................100 ............. 40 .............20 ...........10

UAE Derby ..................................1 3/16M (S) ......Meydan ................................UAE .........................100 ............. 40 .............20 ...........10

Louisiana Derby .........................1 1/8M .............Fair Grounds ........................Louisiana .................100 ............. 40 .............20 ...........10

Wood Memorial ..........................1 1/8M .............Aqueduct .............................New York .................100 ............. 40 .............20 ...........10

Santa Anita Derby ......................1 1/8M .............Santa Anita ...........................California .................100 ............. 40 .............20 ...........10

Arkansas Derby ..........................1 1/8M .............Oaklawn Park .......................Arkansas .................100 ............. 40 .............20 ...........10

Blue Grass ..................................1 1/8M (S) ........Keeneland ............................Kentucky .................100 ............. 40 .............20 ...........10

“WILD CARD”Lexington ....................................1 1/16M (S) ......Keeneland ............................Kentucky ...................20 ............... 8 ...............4 .............2

The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial ........1M ...................Churchill Downs ...................Kentucky ...................20 ............... 8 ...............4 .............2

Kentucky Derby Championship Series

DERBY COUNTDOWN BACK TO CONTENTS

DATE......... TRACK.....................................RACE.....................................WINNER

1............ Shanghai Bobby ........... Todd Pletcher ......................20

2............ Goldencents ................. Doug O’Neill ........................14

3............ Joha .............................. Mike Maker ..........................10

4............ Overanalyze .................. Todd Pletcher ......................10

5............ Uncaptured ................... Mark Casse .........................10

6............ Power Broker ................ Bob Baffert ..........................10

7............ Steeler ........................... Mark Johnston .....................10

8............ River Seven ................... Nick Gonzalez .....................10

9............ Tesseron ....................... Josie Carroll ...........................5

10.......... Bern Identity ................. Kelly Breen ............................4

11.......... He’s Had Enough .......... Doug O’Neill ..........................4

12.......... Capo Bastone ............... John Sadler ...........................4

13.......... Know More .................... Doug O’Neill ..........................4

14.......... Dynamic Sky ................. Mark Casse ...........................4

15.......... Artigiano ....................... Mahmood Al Zarooni .............4

16.......... Normandy Invasion....... Chad Brown ...........................4

DATE......... TRACK.....................................RACE.....................................WINNER

17.......... Frac Daddy ................... Ken McPeek ..........................4

18.......... Fortify ............................ Kiaran McLaughlin ................3

19.......... Mylute ........................... Tom Amoss ............................2

20.......... Java’s War ..................... Ken McPeek ..........................2

21.......... Indiano Jones ............... Mark Casse ...........................2

22.......... Al Waab ........................ Henry Cecil ............................2

23.......... Delhomme .................... Todd Pletcher ........................4

24.......... Dewey Square .............. Dale Romans .........................2

25.......... Hightail .......................... D. Wayne Lukas.....................1

26.......... Pataky Kid ..................... Tom Proctor ...........................1

27.......... Carving ......................... Bob Baffert ............................1

28.......... Five Iron ........................ Bryan Lynch ..........................1

29.......... Birdman ........................ David Simcock ......................1

t-30 ....... Archwarrior ................... Todd Pletcher ........................1

t-30 ....... Quinzieme Monarque ... Tom Albertrani .......................1

Kentucky Derby 2013 Point Standings (through Dec. 14)

DERBY COUNTDOWN BACK TO CONTENTS

HE’S HAD ENOUGH Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up really took a good

step forward while trying dirt for the first time. He did break his maiden sprinting over synthetic footing at Del Mar first out this summer and maybe the presence of a significant amount of early lick again helps him overcome this tough draw, but the barn is 0 for its last 22 with 2-year-old males in G1 stakes heats over the past 5 years and only 4 of those runners even managed to hit the board.

DEN’S LEGACY G3 SW turfer returns to synthetic footing after holding

on to score on the stretchout over the local sod. The first of 4 Baffert runners in here, he broke his maiden down at Del Mar and Gomez sticks with him today but despite his pedigree we still have to question his ability to prosper at this trip. Prefer to side with others.

DIRTY SWAGG Made a nice run despite the wide trip in the prep for this

last month but still couldn’t get to either of the 2 guys who beat him and show up in the next couple of gates today. He’s been working well in the interim and maybe he’s just an improving juvenile who will take another step forward now that he’s gotten things going a bit, but even so we’d have to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

CARVING Barn’s second runner in here bounced back from a

disappointing effort in Santa Anita’s G1 FrontRunner to outduel the guy next door in his first local spin.This colt has the tactical foot to secure a good spot for himself early and he is one of just 2 trip winners in the field and that’s a big plus. He’s a serious threat to repeat, but Baffert graded stakes juveniles with this pilot aloft are just 2 for 22 over the past 5 years.

FURY KAPCORI He’s on the improve and he held pretty well when sand-

wiched by a couple these in the Real Quiet last month. Colt worked quickly here last week and he’s another who figures to find himself just off the pacesetters from the outset today. If he’s able to settle a bit this contender could well turn the tables at a decent price.

VIOLENCE They shelled out $600K for this guy at auction last year

and expected some big things out of him.He got the job done when hammered at the windows first out at Sara-toga and the guy he beat in that heat returned to break his maiden in Kentucky with a 98 Beyer. Showed that he could handle added ground in the G2 score in New York and 2 turns shouldn’t pose him much of a problem, but now he’ll have the new footing to deal with. It’s nice to see this top pilot fly across the country to ride him, but over the past 5 years the barn surprisingly hits at only an 11% clip with an ROI of just $0.82 on its G1 stakes runners.

SIMON EYES Boasts a bullet drill for his second crack at 3 foes who

finished in front of him in the Real Quiet. He’s got some positional foot and maybe he’s better second time going long but he’ll need to be in order to threaten these for the top spot. Price should be right but a top pilot gets off and though this barn hits at a 25% clip overall throughout the past 5 years, that rate dips to 6% with juveniles in the graded stakes ranks.

REALLY MR GREELY Field’s highest Beyer earner did so through moder-

ate frontend splits while sprinting in his first crack with winners. The barn’s third runner in here isn’t bred to prosper at 2 turns, but he draws inside what look to be his main pace foes and will probably be allowed to roll from the bell. Baffert juveniles have stretched out success-fully 28% of the time over the past 5 years so if he’s able to outrun his stablemate next door they’ll have to come and get him and he could offer some resistance.

Super LookBETFAIR HOLLYWOOD 12/15 – CASHCALL FUTURITY

Continued

DERBY COUNTDOWN BACK TO CONTENTS

TITLE CONTENDER Barn’s fourth entrant in here tired after setting a quick

clip from the fence when in against some of the better runners of his generation in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; his game is speed so he again figures to be let loose from the outset, but note his lone competitive figure came when able to dictate soft splits first time in blinkers in the maiden score on dirt; stablemate to his inside is also quick early so that won’t make things easy for him either.

LITTLE JERRY Earned a solid number in breaking his maiden from

well out of it early first time out. He takes a big step up the class ladder to the G1 stakes ranks today but should get a much better clip to run at and he certainly has a right to improve with the initial experience out of the way. His low-profile barn has stretched 10 runners out from a sprint trip over the past 5 years and 4 of them won, provid-ing them with a $6.90 ROI off the angle.

OXBOW Shipper draws outside for his first route try while also

stepping in with winners for the initial time. He does enter this on the improve, but he’s been all speed thus far and this starting slot isn’t going to make things easy on him in a field that contains plenty of other lick. Barn boasts a timid $0.27 ROI from a 2 for 46 slate with juveniles in the graded stakes ranks over the past 5 years. Looks to have a tough task ahead of him.

-Steve Grabowski

Super Look (continued)

BETFAIR HOLLYWOOD 12/15 – CASHCALL FUTURITY

Derby Countdown will be expanded starting in January 2013 with additional features including the 2013 Derby Watch Rankings.