SAMI Consulting St Andrews Management Institute decisions in uncertain times Scenarios for higher education in the 21 st

SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institute

www.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain times

Scenarios for higher education in the

21st century

Gill RinglandOctober 2009

SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Agenda

• What questions might we ask?• Scenarios & Forecasts

• Case study – Scenarios for Scotland• Case Study – Forecasts and scenarios

• What scope for scenarios? What timescale?• Case study – scenarios for higher education in Estonia• Case study – using scenarios to think about future skills

• What happens next?• Case study – developing and using scenarios in a University

• Questions revisited


• Formed in 1989• Until 1999 based at St Andrews University• Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows

• Strategic support for senior managers• Forecasts, scenarios, options, choices, planning, targets,

metrics, change management• Resources:

• 7 Fellows, all with Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, teach & write on business, strategy and futures

• 6 Principals, experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and change management,

• 10 Consultants and 30 Associates with specialist expertise • Library of data, sources of information, networks of people,

shared virtual space, wide knowledge of methods and tools

SAMI Consulting


What questions might we ask?

• How do we define Higher Education?• What is the purpose of HE?• What economic and societal changes will shape HE?• What influence can HE have on the economy and

society? What aspects?• When (what life stage) can/should people undertake

HE?• How can HE be delivered?


Fo

reca

sts

Sce

na r

ios

Hope!

Uncertainty

Predetermined

Distance into the futures

Forecasts and Scenarios


Forecasting is good for

• Technology• Products for next 10 years in lab now• Products for next 20 years discussed now• But – adoption - surprises

• Demographics• Reducing population in developed world• World population may peak at 8.8 billion• But – migration – surprises

• Next five years in most sectors• But – scenarios in marketing – use for recognising new

customer behaviour for new products within a year• Forecasts use the current mental model

St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI)


What are scenarios useful for?

• Scenarios are• “an internally consistent view of what the future

might be”• “not a forecast but one possible future outcome”

• Professor Michael Porter, Harvard University

• Scenarios deal with uncertainty and change• Frame mental models to anticipate change• Create a space for dialogue and exploring options• Expose default assumptions• Early indicators allow for signals of change to be

picked up


Case Study – Forecasts and Scenarios

• Example comparing both scenarios and forecasts• Scenarios for Scotland

• Set agenda for new devolved government• Use scenarios for University in Scotland

• New Head (Principal) and Senior Management Team (SMT)• Purpose: set new strategy

• Use global drivers of change with SMT• Five years later• Update strategic plan


Scenarios for Scotland

• Purpose: set agenda for new devolved government – what sort of country should Scotland aspire to be?

• Timing as new Scottish Parliament set up• 10 sponsors, from private sector & Government,

managed by SAMI plus two Universities, 1,000 interviews, 50 + focus groups

• Launch on St Andrews Day 1999• High Road scenario, “can do”• Low Road scenario, “government’s fault”

• Used by Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Executive & politicians to formulate policy and strategy


Scenarios for Scotland

SAMI Consulting 2006

2000 2005 2010 2015

Low Road -“government’s fault” – Business as Usual

Economy and Quality of Life

High Road scenario - “can do”

possible upward triggers

Graduate Entrepreneurs Naturaleducation advantages


Using scenarios

• New University Head (Principal) and new Senior Management Team

• Needed to create a common language and strategic plan• Used the Scenarios for Scotland to frame a discussion

• What scenario for Scotland?• Did the University need to share the Scotland scenario?

• Two day workshop discussion led to 37 actions and new Strategic Plan• To change from technical college with mostly local, undergraduate

engineering students• Target:

• Use positives of Edinburgh brand to become global• Use positives of Edinburgh Festival to connect with Arts• Develop Master courses with global focus


Local

Global

Possible futures for the University

University

Scotland

Low Road High Road

X

? ?

?Graduate education

New courses,

new students


Five years later

• Phone call to SAMI • We’ve done that, will you help us with a plan for the next five years?

• Did not use scenarios, the University had a mental model• Used our five global drivers of change

• Globalisation• Climate change• Raw materials• Technology• People

• Within the SMT had experts on each but no effective communication

• Two day workshop discussion allowed them to calibrate what was achievable, desirable, set targets for next five years.


Why scenarios work

• Ingvar, a neurobiologist, found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleep• “memories of the future”

• Models of the world provide a context for these explorations• “memories of the future” act as a filter to signals.

• Scenarios provide several alternative model future worlds for the brain to explore • increases the range of “what we have experienced” and

“what is relevant to our future”• increases the ability of the brain to perceive.

. Source: D. Ingvar, “Memory of the Future”, Human Neurobiology, 4 (3), p127-136, 1985


Lessons learnt

• Scenarios are important for forming mental models• Facilitate a discussion about options• Explore assumptions

• Forecasts and knowledge of drivers may be what is needed for a strategic plan• Though good plans include analysis of decision points

where review of the data is needed to be sure that the world view is still correct

• Example – population in London


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1951 1971 1991 2006 2016

ActualForecast now

London projections

1991 forecast


Scenario scope & timescale

• Change comes from outside the domain• Japanese Foresight study

• Scope needs to be wide, eg for HE consider• demographics, • the economy, • changing skill needs, • technology ----

• Timescale• Longer than strategic planning horizon• Relevant to the community


GE Oil & Gas Planning Horizon

Changes from outside the horizon

Planning Horizon

Timescale

New technologies

Other industries

Politics, economics

Societal change

Competitors

Customers

Regulators

3

5

10


• Japan Foresight Review• Foresight started in Japan early 50’s• Review of accuracy after 25 years

• Found that accuracy better if used a wide set of inputs, eg:• Future of surface chemistry• Consulted surface chemists plus other chemists, chemical

engineers, physicists, biologists, economist, mathematicians

• Changes come from outside the domain of the current experts

Where change comes from

Source: B.R. Martin and J. Irvine, “Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science”(Pinter Publishers, London & New York, 1989).


Scenarios for HE in Estonia

• What problem were we trying to solve?• Demographic dip related to 1989-91, few Estonian students• Facilities in place, plus ageing academic and support staff

• What could be done?• Attract international students to Estonian Universities• Using ICT to support distance learning based in Estonia

• Scenarios to explore options• How are the scenarios being used?

• To outline possible solutions• To develop a plan for EU funding


Construction Skills

• The UK Sector Council for Construction Skills was faced with a problem:• Training in the industry takes 3-5 years• The Council is responsible for qualifications which are lagging

today’s needs, • Will the requirements be the same in say 10 years time?• The workforce is ageing – how many people are needed to

replace the retirees? • Much of the workforce in construction has always been

migrant – how stable is this?


Using scenarios

• Interviews with all the major employers and Trade Unions

• Built a model to extend existing scenarios for the UK to 2020• Took into account changing technologies & productivity • Also possible economic and social patterns & effect of

climate change and raw materials• Extend existing model used by the Sector Council

• Results tested in workshops around the country


Interdependence

Autonomy

Four Scenarios

Individual CommunityConventionaldevelopment

World markets Global sustainability

Local stewardship

National enterprise

Go

ve

rnan

ce

Values

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What were the findings?

• In all scenarios there is continuing demand for construction workers• But mix of skills will be different• Need for multi-skilling & end of “silos”

• Climate change and resource efficiency demands will cause changes in the methods used,

• Potential increase in productivity eg from modularisation, need for multi-skilling

• Construction companies will need to pay more attention to recruitment and retention • because of global war for talent and increased mobility of

workers

• Results challenge the culture of the industry but are difficult to argue against


Lessons learnt

• National scope for scenarios can be useful for engaging with decision makers• Though global forces need to be considered

• Combining scenarios with existing well-respected models works• Enables people who use the output from the model to

understand the role of assumptions• And to question their assumptions

• Timescale for scenarios may be beyond the planning horizons• But effective scenarios will mean decisions in the short term


What happens next?

• Scenarios are useful mental models• Basis for discussion

• Who decides? Do the decision makers need to be part of the scenario creation process?• Evidence is that no, • From University SMT and Construction Skills

• How to engage decision makers?• Scenarios need to be plausible and provide approaches to

recognised issues• Project designers need to identify the decision making forum

and process


“Typical” scenarios project

• Scenarios project in 2000 led by the new Vice Chancellor• Team formed mostly from administrative staff• Created four scenarios for Higher Education in 2010

• Workshops across the University • What are the implications of each scenario for the University?• What scenario do we want to make happen?

• Strategy Group of about 80 people set up• Senior academics and young high flyers, met three times at

monthly intervals• To take output from workshops and create a strategy• Strategy outlined

• Senate needed to agree changes in strategy• Senate has over 800 academic members• Decision process still stalled

SAMI Consulting 2006


Lessons learnt

• Decision process• Need to think through in advance• Who makes decisions• Why they should decide for change

• Scenarios are tools to think about uncertainty and change

• Like any project, • need to know what is the aim • what the steps are to getting there


Scenarios for higher education

• Universities UK scenarios• Common assumptions

• Main increase is in part time demand & part distance learning

• Tiering of institutions – top 100 globally, long tail

• Scenario 1: adapt slowly• Scenario 2: market-driven, i.e. by students• Scenario 3: employer-driven

• Useful background to our thinking today


Questions revisited

• How do we define Higher Education?• What is the purpose of HE? Will demand be driven by

students or by employers? Or by national governments? Or the EU?

• What societal and economic changes will shape HE?• What influence can HE have on the economy and

society?• When (what life stage) can/should students undertake

HE? What proportion of people can/should undertake HE?

• What sort of organisations can/should deliver HE? How can HE be delivered? (technology, face-to-face. part time, full time)

SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institute

www.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain times

Thank you

discussion,

the floor is yours

Documents

SAMI Consulting St Andrews Management Institute decisions in uncertain times Scenarios for higher education in the 21 st