SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times 1/2/2012 John Reynolds [email protected]

SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times

1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1

RenewableUK - Health and Safety 20121st February 2012

“The use of scenarios to evaluate future health and safety issues for wind energy”

John Reynolds

[email protected]

Background• Project for European Agency for Safety and

Health at Work (EU-OSHA) http://osha.europa.eu– EU-OSHA’s role is to help improve working conditions

in the European Union by providing technical, scientific and economic information to people involved in safety and health at work

• Working with the UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) and Technopolis Group

• Project – “Foresight of New and Emerging Risks to Occupational Safety and Health Associated with New Technologies in Green Jobs by 2020”


http://osha.europa.eu/

http://osha.europa.eu/

Project scope

• Phase 1 (completed): Identification of key drivers of contextual change that could shape green jobs over the next 10 years

• Phase 2 (completed): Identification of key new technologies likely to impact on OSH in green jobs – negatively and positively

• Phase 3 (June 2011- March 2012):Development of plausible and consistent scenarios on how the key new technologies may evolve in the context of the changes induced by the key drivers and create emerging risks in green jobs by 2020


Key technologies• Wind Energy• Construction• Biotechnology/Bio-energy• Waste and recycling• Transport• Manufacturing and robotics• Energy

– Domestic and small scale energy – Battery technology– Energy storage and recovery– Energy transmission

Also horizontal technologies, e.g. nanomaterials1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4

What are scenarios?

• Stories that describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future

• Possible ‘paths’ to the future• Based on an analysis of drivers of change• Should be engaging, compelling and credible• Must have internal logic and consistency• Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined

elements to be separated• Not predictions or forecasts


Main Drivers of Future Change

1. Economic Growth• Growth In Europe• Global Growth rates

2. Green Culture and Values• Public Opinion• Government Incentives and controls• Energy Efficiency and Resource Use• Waste Management and Recycling

3. Rate of Innovation in Green technology


Scenario axes


Scenario Win – Win Bonus World Deep Green

Economic Growth High High Low

Green Values Strong Weak Strong

Rate of Innovation in Green Technologies

High Medium - Medium +

Gre

en V

alu

es

Economic Growth

Deep GreenStrongly green

culture and values

Bonus World

Strong GrowthGlobal and European

Win - WinHigh Rate ofInnovation

in Green Technology

Ve

ry S

tron

g

Low Growth High Growth

We

ak

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Innovation Axis


For profit

For Green

Growth For Green Future

Gre

en V

alu

es

Economic Growth

Ve

ry S

tron

g

Low Growth High Growth

We

ak

Deep Green Win - Win

Bonus World

101/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Win - Win

Defined by• High economic growth• Strong Green Values• High rate of Innovation

in Green Technologies


Win - Win

• Green growth is sustainable. • Green activities are seen as a major

contribution to economic growth rather than simply as a cost

• Technology is delivering on its promise to make green growth achievable.


Strong Green Values

• Growing public concerns over climate change and other environmental threats

• Mandate for deeply green legislation • Green behaviour is strongly approved of• Better models show how vulnerable the human

race will be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services.


High Innovation in Green Technology

• The trajectory of technology accelerates – More and more young engineers and

scientists qualify around the world, – Developments are propagated immediately

• Technology has made green growth achievable. Most innovations use fewer resources and less pollution.

• Energy science continues to deliver• The path to a zero-carbon future is now clear


Occupational Safety and Health

• Higher investments in safety and health • Funds available to make infrastructure and

business processes safer and more accessible.• Environmental hazards are seen by society as of

particular concern• Many all-new green processes and enterprises,

most of which require new OSH procedures and training


Occupational Safety and Health• New jobs and new products may bring new hazards

and risks at an ever-increasing speed. • Rapid roll-out of new technologies and products

mean that wider population may be exposed to any new hazards and risks in shorter timescales.

• OSH assessments needs to be done ever earlier in product development cycles – in order to catch issues before they have been

rolled out globally.• High pace of innovation is transforming the nature of

work, with an equally transformative potential effect on OSH.1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16


WIN-WIN

The solar powered office buildings needed a lot of cleaning

1/2/2012 18

Bonus World

Defined by• High economic growth• Weak Green Values• Medium rate of

Innovation in Green Technology (directed towards profits)


Bonus World

• People will choose the route of increased prosperity – when faced with the costs of going green.

• Technology is helping the world to be more efficient in its use of resources – but this efficiency merely translates into

increased consumption• Carbon emissions and resource use are still

rising.– High resource price stimulate increased

supply


Medium Innovation in Green Technology• Technology continues to advance, driven by the

profit motive• High levels of overall innovation• High growth allows capital-intensive inventions

to be implemented quickly.• Energy sciences continue to deliver,

– but it is not clear how or whether a zero-carbon future can be achieved without unacceptable compromises


Occupational Safety and Health• Funds available to make infrastructure and business

processes safer and more accessible.• Rapid roll-out of new technologies / products

– wider population exposed in shorter timescales. • OSH is of relatively low priority for most

governments. • New jobs and new products may bring new hazards

and risks.• OSH is seen by most employers as important in term

of its impact on profits• OSH by regulation may be more effective than OSH

by education1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22



Deep Green

Defined by• Low economic growth• Strong Green Values• Medium rate of

Innovation in Green Technologies


Deep Green

• A Green economy is achievable – but at the cost of economic growth.

• Sustainability and Greenness are valued by people more than economic growth

• Green activities are seen as a cost that needs to be borne.

• High taxes on pollution and carbon emissions• Technology is helping to deliver a green future


Strongly Green Values

• Growing public concern over climate change and other environmental threats

• Mandate for green legislation • Green behaviour is strongly approved of• Better models show how vulnerable the human

race may be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services

• Repeated resource shortages reinforce the need to be green


Medium Innovation in Green Technology • Technology continues to advance, driven by a

desire to achieve sustainability• Restricted levels of capital investment restrict

the adoption of capital-intensive innovations • Energy sciences continue to deliver

– but it is now clear that low economic growth is necessary to achieve a zero-carbon future


Occupational Safety and Health• Low growth may tempt employers to cut corners

and makes investing in safer and healthier infrastructure more difficult

• Slower roll-out of some new technologies and new products gives more time to assimilate new hazards and new risks.

• Many all-new green processes and enterprises, all of which require new OSH procedures and training

• Environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular concern





Pathways Win–Win Bonus World Deep Green

Amount of wind power

ExtensiveLimited, depending on the price of energy

Lots of wind power but less that Win–Win

LocationsDeep water offshore, in addition to traditional sites

Onshore, closer to cities. Planning rules relaxed.

Mostly Onshore

Less ambition and less off-shore than Win–Win

Turbines

Up to 20MW

Specialised marine designs.

5–7 MW

Standard turbine designs to minimise cost per unit output

3-5MW

Smaller turbines

Grid connection

Extensive interconnectors Continental supergrid

Direct to connections to areas of greatest consumption

Storage buffers rather than the Supergrid

Existing wind farms

Sites get repowered Decommissioning Issues

Old turbines kept going as long as possible

Health and Safety Conclusions• New and emerging risk in each scenario are a

combination of the different social and economic conditions with the respective technology pathway

• Scenarios have provided a framework for discussion between experts in technology and health and safety – leading to new insights

• Realisation that some technology pathways and targets are particularly scenario dependant

• Main health and safety implications to be reviewed at European workshop in March


Documents

SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times 1/2/2012 John Reynolds [email protected]