Sales Price Trends Report

SALES PRICE TRENDS

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND

RESIDENTIAL and NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES 2000-2010

April 2013

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND

RESIDENTIAL and NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE TRENDS: 2000 - 2010

COLUMBIA, MD / TRENDS ANALYSIS / 04.2013

Acknowledgments

Phillip L. Nelson, Columbia Association President/CEO

Columbia Association Project Team

Jane Dembner, Director, Community Building and Sustainability Bureau

Scott Templin, Assistant Community Planner

Consultant

Chesapeake Group Inc.; Howard Kohn, President

Responsible for analysis and report development

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................... 1

INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 6

STUDY METHODOLOGY ................................................................. 8

RESIDENTIAL SALES TRENDS ..................................................... 11

RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICES TRENDS – COMPOSITE ............. 53

NON-RESIDENTIAL VALUE TRENDS ........................................... 59

CONCLUSION ................................................................................ 65

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Tables Table 1 – Columbia and Howard County, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ..................................... 11

Table 2 – Columbia and Howard County, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ... 12

Table 3 – Dorsey Search, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................................. 13

Table 4 – Dorsey Search, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................... 14

Table 5 – Harper’s Choice, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................................................... 17

Table 6 – Harper’s Choice, Change in Average Residential Sale Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................... 18

Table 7 – Hickory Ridge, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 .............................................................. 21

Table 8 – Hickory Ridge, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................ 22

Table 9 – Kings Contrivance, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................................................ 25

Table 10 – Kings Contrivance, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 .................... 26

Table 11 – Long Reach, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010................................................................ 29

Table 12 – Long Reach, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 .............................. 30

Table 13 – Oakland Mills, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................................. 33

Table 14 – Oakland Mills, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................... 34

Table 15 – Owen Brown, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010............................................................... 37

Table 16 – Owen Brown, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................. 38

Table 17 – River Hill, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ..................................................................... 41

Table 18 – River Hill, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ................................... 42

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Table 19 – Town Center, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................................... 45

Table 20 – Town Center, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................. 46

Table 21 – Wilde Lake, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ................................................................. 49

Table 22 – Wilde Lake, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................... 50

Table 23 – Village Comparison, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 .................................................... 53

Table 24 – Village Comparison, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 .................. 55

Table 25 – Village Comparison, Residential Number of Sales per Year, 2000 through 2010 .......................................................... 57

Table 26 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential Number of Sales per Year, 2000 through 2010 .................................................. 59

Table 27 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential Average Price per Square Foot of Building Area, 2000 through 2010 ............... 61

Table 28 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential: Annual Change in Average Price per Square Foot, 2000 through 2010 ........... 62

Table 29 – Village Comparison, Sales Volume for Non-residential Property per Year, 2000 through 2010 .................................... 63

Figures Figure 1 – Dorsey Search, Average Residential Sales Price for Residential Units per Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................... 15

Figure 2 – Dorsey Search, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 .......................... 16

Figure 3 – Harper’s Choice, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 .......................................................... 19

Figure 4 – Harper’s Choice, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................ 20

Figure 5 – Hickory Ridge, Average Sales Prices for Residential Units per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................. 23

Figure 6 – Hickory Ridge, Change in Average Sales Prices from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................ 24

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Figure 7 – Kings Contrivance, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ...................................................... 27

Figure 8 – Kings Contrivance, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 .................... 28

Figure 9 – Long Reach, Average Residential Sales Price for Residential Units per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................... 31

Figure 10 – Long Reach, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................ 32

Figure 11 – Oakland Mills, Average Residential Sales Price Per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................................ 35

Figure 12 – Oakland Mills, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 .......................... 36

Figure 13 – Owen Brown, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................................. 39

Figure 14 – Owen Brown, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ........................... 40

Figure 15 – River Hill, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 .................................................................... 43

Figure 16 – River Hill, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 .................................. 44

Figure 17– Town Center, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................................................... 47

Figure 18 – Town Center, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................ 48

Figure 19 – Wilde Lake, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010 ................................................................ 51

Figure 20 – Wilde Lake, Change in Average Residential Sales Prices from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010 ............................ 52

Figure 21 – Village Comparison, Average Residential Sales Price Change Per Year, 2000 to 2010 Timeframe ............................ 54

Figure 22 – Village Comparison, Percent Change in Average Residential Sales Price, 2000 through 2010 ................................... 56

Figure 23 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential Number of Sales per Year, 2000 through 2010 ................................................. 60

Figure 24 – Sales Volume for Non-residential Property per Year, 2000 through 2010 .................................................................... 64

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


1 /COLUMBIA, MD / TRENDS ANALYSIS / 04.2013

Executive Summary

Residential sales prices in Columbia’s villages have fared well in the past decade even with the “great recession” of 2008 to 2009. The greatest proportional increases in the average residential sales price for Columbia villages are associated with 2003 through 2006, while, not surprisingly, the largest decline occurred from 2008 to 2009. In general, the percentage increase in average sales prices for the Columbia villages were equivalent or exceeded those for Howard County for the years between 2001 and 2007 and fell less steeply than those in the county in 2008 and 2009.

All villages experienced increases in average residential sales prices. River Hill had the highest average sales price of all Columbia villages in 2000 and maintained that standing for most of the study period.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Oakland Mills and Hickory Ridge had the highest percentage increases

of any village from 2000 to 2010.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



The largest villages—Long Reach and Hickory Ridge—had the largest number of sales. All villages combined had more than 11,000 sales.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



In 2010, Hickory Ridge and River Hill had the highest average residential sale price of all the villages. The average sale price for Howard County (other than Columbia) was only slightly higher.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



The Columbia Association commissioned research and analysis on residential and non-residential real estate sales in Columbia, Maryland for the period from 2000 to 2010. This report entitled “Sales Price Trends, Columbia, Maryland: Residential and Non-

Residential Sales, 2000-2010” examines the trends for each of Columbia’s villages and Town Center and compares the villages, Columbia and Howard County. It also includes information on non-residential sales.

The average sales prices presented in the report are derived from the calculated square foot price, based on the size of the unit sold. This allows for the comparison of sale prices that also account for the mix of unit types and sizes.

The Columbia Association undertook this analysis to better understand Columbia real estate price trends, particularly home price trends, given the significant market changes and redevelopment activity occurring. The report provides important datasets that can be

used to better understand Columbia and where further study, follow-up investigation or action might be warranted.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Introduction

This report documents an analysis of residential and non-residential real estate sales in Columbia, Maryland for the period from 2000 to 2010. The average sales prices presented in this report are derived from the calculated square foot price, based on the size of the unit

sold. This allows for the comparison of sale prices that also account for the mix of unit types and sizes. The methodology on page 2 explains how this analysis was completed.

The report compares overall Columbia sales to those of Howard County as a whole, then examines the trends for each of Columbia’s villages and Town Center, and then is followed by a composite look at trends for all the villages, Columbia and Howard County. Residential trends are presented first followed by non-residential trends.

This research and analysis was undertaken at the request of the Columbia Association to better understand Columbia real estate sales trends, particularly home sales trends, given the significant market changes and redevelopment activity occurring. As with Columbia Association’s recent analysis of Census Bureau data (“Characteristics of Columbia: a Demographic and Socio-economic Profile”

http://bit.ly/columbiacharacteristics), this report provides important datasets that can be used to better understand Columbia and

where further study, follow-up investigation or action might be warranted.

Columbia, as a whole, and the individual villages have fared well in the past decade even with the “great recession” of 2008 to 2009, following national and regional patterns for established communities. The findings in this analysis are significant in the sense that few negative trends are discernible. Sometimes the inability to not find issues or problems is as or more important than the identification of

negatives or issues.

http://bit.ly/columbiacharacteristics

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Study Methodology

A series of analysis steps were performed by consultant Chesapeake Group Inc. to create the datasets analyzed in this study of sale prices for the period 2000 through 2010. These included:

1. Obtaining property sales data from the Maryland’s Real Estate Information datasets as compiled by the state’s contractor SpecPrint.

2. Identifying sales of residential units for each calendar year from 2000 through 2010 for Columbia’s Town Center and villages (for Columbia Association assessed properties) and Howard County.

3. Identification within those sales of “arms-length” improved property transactions. This type of transaction is one in which the improved property was exposed for sale in the open market and the transaction involved a non-family member willing seller and willing buyer.

4. Defining the improved property as building area having an “enclosed area.” The enclosed area for residential property is one

with a dwelling above ground level. Calculations of square footage therefore exclude the area of the basement (if any) even if it is finished. (For non-residential it is generally the square footage of the building and excludes parking structures and out buildings.)

5. Defining land area is defined in square feet, with acreage converted to square feet, employing the definition of 43,560 square feet per acre.

6. Since units vary in size, evaluation of units is performed on a “sale price” per square foot.

7. Determining the average (mean) sale price by taking the price of each unit sold, dividing each by the square footage of the unit,

totaling the values and dividing the total by the number of units sold and multiplying this figure by the average sized unit.

Whether residential or non-residential, there are many factors that impact the resulting trends. These range from national economic issues to data furnished by the State of Maryland’s contractor SpecPrint and its Maryland Real Estate Information DVD. These include but are not necessarily limited to:

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



National housing and finance market issues, most notably those associated with the “great recession” of 2008 to 2009.

Small numbers of units sold in any given year or geographic area.

The timing and number of new buildings constructed, which can significantly alter the composition in any geographic area.

The types of housing units sold.

Inconsistencies in data for a composite of units or for any one unit over time, which results from issues with recordation,

changes/additions to units made by ownership and other factors.

The following is a synopsis of the average sales price study for Columbia conducted by Chesapeake Group Inc. on behalf of the Columbia Association. The residential properties are analyzed separately from the non-residential properties.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Residential Sales Trends

The analysis begins with a comparison of residential sales between Columbia and Howard County, then delves deeper to examine sales prices in each village for each year in the study period, and concludes with a tabular summary of the villages as compared to Columbia

and Howard County. As shown in Table 1, in general, the average sales price for housing in Columbia and Howard County rose from 2000 through 2007. The average sales price of a home in the Columbia Association-assessed area rose from roughly $177,000 in 2000

to more than $374,000 in 2007. The average sales price for a home in 2010 was about $326,000 ($326,516), a lower number that reflects the loss of home values during the national “great recession” of 2008 and 2009. This recession was linked to the housing market and had its impact on both Columbia and Howard County. Housing values fell less in Columbia’s villages overall than in other parts of Howard County for 2008 and 2009.

Table 1 – Columbia and Howard County, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Columbia Villages $177,376 $189,589 $208,187 $238,760 $288,273 $344,309 $365,456 $374,600 $357,303 $328,048 $326,516 $149,140 84%

Howard County (Other than Columbia)

$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%

Source: Developed by the Chesapeake Group, Inc., 2012. Average sale prices are based on the average square footage of the units and the price per square foot.

The greatest proportional increases in the average residential sales price for Columbia villages are associated with 2003 through 2006, while, not surprisingly, the largest decline occurred from 2008 to 2009. In general, the percent increase in average sales prices for the

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Columbia villages was equivalent or exceeded those for Howard County for the years between 2001 and 2007 and fell less steeply than those in the county in 2008 and 2009. Details are shown Table 2.

Table 2 – Columbia and Howard County, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Columbia Villages $12,213 $18,598 $30,573 $49,512 $56,036 $21,147 $9,143 ($17,297) ($29,255) ($1,531)

Howard County (Other than Columbia) $25,897 $25,847 $21,467 $68,201 $60,031 $27,595 $11,085 ($39,668) ($40,061) $36,228

Columbia Villages % Change 7% 10% 15% 21% 19% 6% 3% -5% -8% 0%

Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%


The following is a synopsis of the sales trends for each of the sections and villages of Columbia for which the analysis was performed.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND

RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICES and NON-RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICES TRENDS: 2000 - 2010

DORSEY SEARCH


In the early years of the previous decade (2000 to 2002), the average price of housing in Dorsey Search did not increase. However,

between 2000 and 2010 overall, the average price of a home in Dorsey Search rose by 109 percent as compared to the average rise of 84 percent for Columbia villages and 82 percent for Howard County. Dorsey Search has consistently seen lower levels of sales activity

than the other villages of Columbia. Residential sales activity for all villages is presented towards the end of this report in Table 25.

Table 3 shows the average sales prices during the study period.

Table 3 – Dorsey Search, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Dorsey Search $154,567 $148,925 $133,177 $231,354 $262,840 $279,386 $291,406 $330,918 $300,678 $289,032 $322,608 $168,041 109%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


DORSEY SEARCH


Table 4 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Dorsey Search to the villages overall and to Howard County

(other than Columbia).

Table 4 – Dorsey Search, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dorsey Search ($5,642) ($15,748) $98,177 $31,486 $16,547 $12,020 $39,512 ($30,240) ($11,646) $33,577



Dorsey Search % Change -4% -11% 74% 14% 6% 4% 14% -9% -4% 12%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%


Figures 1 and 2 display the sales price data in a graphic format and illustrate comparisons with the villages overall and Howard County


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


DORSEY SEARCH


Figure 1 – Dorsey Search, Average Residential Sales Price for Residential Units per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dorsey Search Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


DORSEY SEARCH


Figure 2 – Dorsey Search, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dorsey Search % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HARPER’S CHOICE


With the exception of 2003 and 2010, Harper’s Choice sales prices essentially mirrored the directional pattern of rising or falling values

for Columbia in general. The village saw steady sales price gains through 2007. This was followed by a decline in sale prices for Harper’s Choice beginning in 2008 and then reversing course in 2010.


Table 5 – Harper’s Choice, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Harper's Choice $175,996 $190,207 $241,126 $230,978 $330,961 $363,487 $387,436 $398,284 $363,783 $349,332 $361,268 $185,272 105%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HARPER’S CHOICE


Table 6 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Harper’s Choice to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 6 – Harper’s Choice, Change in Average Residential Sale Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Harper's Choice $14,211 $50,919 ($10,148) $99,983 $32,526 $23,949 $10,848 ($34,501) ($14,451) $11,936



Harper's Choice % Change 8% 27% -4% 43% 10% 7% 3% -9% -4% 3%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HARPER’S CHOICE


Figure 3 – Harper’s Choice, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Harper's Choice Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HARPER’S CHOICE


Figure 4 – Harper’s Choice, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Harper's Choice % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HICKORY RIDGE


With the exception of 2010, Hickory Ridge trends and patterns mirror the defined patterns for Columbia. However, during the

previous decade, Hickory Ridge sales prices increased to a greater extent than Columbia overall. The price differential grew from roughly $17,000 to more than $65,000 by 2008. On the other hand, as a result of the recession, the fall in prices in 2008 and 2009

exceeded Columbia’s fall in prices. Then in 2010, Hickory Ridge sales prices increased significantly, recovering much of the loss attributed to 2008 and 2009.


Table 7 – Hickory Ridge, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Hickory Ridge $194,810 $226,188 $262,445 $270,953 $349,072 $379,895 $409,088 $449,289 $422,767 $364,162 $422,778 $227,968 117%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HICKORY RIDGE


Table 8 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Hickory Ridge to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 8 – Hickory Ridge, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Hickory Ridge $31,379 $36,257 $8,508 $78,119 $30,823 $29,193 $40,201 ($26,522) ($58,605) $58,616



Hickory Ridge % Change 16% 16% 3% 29% 9% 8% 10% -6% -14% 16%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HICKORY RIDGE


Figure 5 – Hickory Ridge, Average Sales Prices for Residential Units per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Hickory Ridge Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


HICKORY RIDGE


Figure 6 – Hickory Ridge, Change in Average Sales Prices from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Hickory Ridge % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


KINGS CONTRIVANCE


Kings Contrivance reflects the general pattern for Columbia and overall the village has seen a substantial increase in the average sales

price over the study period. However, it appears that the declines since the “great recession” are much steeper, with an overall decline of more than 25 percent since 2007. This is almost double that of Columbia, and over two and a half times that of Howard County

outside of Columbia.


Table 9 – Kings Contrivance, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Kings Contrivance $165,543 $185,459 $218,825 $254,194 $307,343 $350,851 $366,122 $398,701 $363,253 $308,710 $298,482 $132,939 80%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


KINGS CONTRIVANCE


Table 10 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Kings Contrivance to the villages overall and to Howard

County (other than Columbia).

Table 10 – Kings Contrivance, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Kings Contrivance $19,916 $33,366 $35,369 $53,148 $43,508 $15,271 $32,579 ($35,448) ($54,543) ($10,229)



Kings Contrivance 12% 18% 16% 21% 14% 4% 9% -9% -15% -3%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


KINGS CONTRIVANCE


Figure 7 – Kings Contrivance, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Kings Contrivance Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


KINGS CONTRIVANCE


Figure 8 – Kings Contrivance, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Kings Contrivance % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


LONG REACH


Long Reach average residential sale prices reflect the general Columbia pattern with prices rising through the mid portion to late in the

decade and then declining during the recession. However, in 2004 and 2005, the percent change in average sale prices in Long Reach was higher than both the average for Columbia villages and for Howard County (other than Columbia). While declines related in

average sale prices in Long Reach actually began in 2007 versus the more typical 2008, the proportional decline related to the recession was relatively small and statistically insignificant.

Table 11 shows the average sales prices during the study period. Long Reach, the largest village in Columbia, had the highest number of residential home sales with almost 2,200 during the study period. See Table 25 for number of sales for each village by year.

Table 11 – Long Reach, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Long Reach $143,419 $157,267 $169,270 $184,600 $233,437 $330,761 $350,124 $345,941 $306,865 $290,313 $291,707 $148,289 103%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


LONG REACH


Table 12 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Long Reach to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 12 – Long Reach, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Long Reach $13,848 $12,003 $15,330 $48,837 $97,324 $19,363 ($4,183) ($39,077) ($16,552) $1,394



Long Reach % Change 10% 8% 9% 26% 42% 6% -1% -11% -5% 0%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


LONG REACH


Figure 9 – Long Reach, Average Residential Sales Price for Residential Units per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Long Reach Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


LONG REACH


Figure 10 – Long Reach, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Long Reach % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OAKLAND MILLS


Oakland Mills mirrored the pattern of average sale prices for Columbia in general. The average sales price increased each year from

2000 through 2007 and then dropped off during the recession as they did throughout the community. While the average sale prices are more modest than some other villages, Oakland Mills had the highest percentage increase in average sale prices during the study

period for all the villages with a 120 percent increase, as compared to the average for Columbia villages of 84 percent and the Howard County average of 82 percent.


Table 13 – Oakland Mills, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Oakland Mills $142,972 $169,645 $185,607 $208,489 $254,757 $319,351 $343,867 $353,098 $309,852 $297,542 $314,502 $171,530 120%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OAKLAND MILLS


Table 14 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Oakland Mills to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 14 – Oakland Mills, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Oakland Mills $26,673 $15,962 $22,882 $46,269 $64,594 $24,516 $9,230 ($43,246) ($12,309) $16,959



Oakland Mills 19% 9% 12% 22% 25% 8% 3% -12% -4% 6%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%


Figures 11 and 12 display the sales price data in a graphic format and illustrate comparisons with the villages overall and Howard


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OAKLAND MILLS


Figure 11 – Oakland Mills, Average Residential Sales Price Per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Oakland Mills Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OAKLAND MILLS


Figure 12 – Oakland Mills, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Oakland Mills % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OWEN BROWN


Owen Brown’s patterns follow a similar pattern as that for other Columbia villages. It had steady increases in average sale prices from

2001 until the beginning of the recession in 2008. However, average sale prices for Owen Brown beginning in 2008 fell at a rate higher than that for Columbia. Over the study period, average residential sales prices rose by 71 percent.

Table 15 shows the average sale prices during the study period.

Table 15 – Owen Brown, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Owen Brown $168,935 $168,859 $190,714 $231,218 $266,651 $329,845 $344,934 $352,158 $329,538 $317,849 $289,447 $120,512 71%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OWEN BROWN


Table 16 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Owen Brown to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 16 – Owen Brown, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Owen Brown ($76) $21,855 $40,504 $35,433 $63,194 $15,089 $7,224 ($22,620) ($11,689) ($28,402)



Owen Brown % Change 0% 13% 21% 15% 24% 5% 2% -6% -4% -9%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OWEN BROWN


Figure 13 – Owen Brown, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Owen Brown Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


OWEN BROWN


Figure 14 – Owen Brown, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Owen Brown % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


RIVER HILL


River Hill had the highest average sales price of all Columbia villages in 2000 and maintained that standing through most of the study

period. However, River Hill increases did not keep pace with average increases for Columbia or other areas of Howard County. In addition, declines in sales prices during the recession were steeper than either Columbia in general or other parts of Howard County.

This difference may be a result of the average price of a unit in River Hill generally being above the average price of units in other Columbia villages and Howard County. Between 2000 and 2010, River Hill saw increases in the average sales price in six of the years

and, unlike most of the other areas, River Hill saw increases in sales prices in 2008 during the beginning of the great recession period.

Table 17 shows the average sale prices during the study period.

Table 17 – River Hill, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

River Hill $306,718 $379,051 $354,294 $366,882 $403,657 $469,304 $527,144 $518,819 $562,029 $491,038 $421,286 $114,569 37%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


RIVER HILL


Table 18 shows the average change from the previous year and compares River Hill to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 18 – River Hill, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

River Hill $72,334 ($24,757) $12,588 $36,775 $65,648 $57,840 ($8,325) $43,210 ($70,991) ($69,752)



River Hill % Change 24% -7% 4% 10% 16% 12% -2% 8% -13% -14%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


RIVER HILL


Figure 15 – River Hill, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

River Hill Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


RIVER HILL


Figure 16 – River Hill, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

River Hill % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


TOWN CENTER


Town Center’s average sales price increased over the study period by a higher percentage than the overall average for all the villages.

However, the average sales price for Town Center residential units in 2010 were below the norm for Columbia and were below the norm throughout the previous decade. One possible reason for these trends includes the uncertainty associated with Downtown

Columbia redevelopment during much of the last decade, which could have weighed on the sale price patterns. Another more likely reason is the residential unit composition of Town Center, which is comprised of almost all single-family attached and multi-family

units, which generally bring lower sale prices then single-family detached units.


Table 19 – Town Center, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Town Center $120,486 $99,021 $139,331 $166,827 $184,279 $282,070 $297,167 $264,042 $278,668 $249,189 $240,816 $120,330 100%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


TOWN CENTER


Table 20 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Town Center to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 20 – Town Center, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Town Center ($21,465) $40,310 $27,496 $17,452 $97,792 $15,097 ($33,125) $14,626 ($29,479) ($8,373)



Town Center % Change -18% 41% 20% 10% 53% 5% -11% 6% -11% -3%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


TOWN CENTER


Figure 17– Town Center, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Town Center Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


TOWN CENTER


Figure 18 – Town Center, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Town Center % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


WILDE LAKE


Wilde Lake’s sales price patterns differ from most of the other villages as well as Howard County. In general, the proportional price

increases from 2000 through 2007 (before the recession) for Wilde Lake were below the norm for other villages of Columbia or Howard County. Between 2000 and 2010, sales prices declined in five of the years, with prices peaking in 2005 or before the start of

the “great recession” in the economy and housing market. Possible reasons for these trends include the uncertainty associated with the neighboring Downtown Columbia redevelopment during this time as well as the uncertainty about the redevelopment of the Wilde

Lake Village Center, which may have impacted residential sales.


Table 21 – Wilde Lake, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Change

% Change

Wilde Lake $200,316 $171,270 $187,081 $242,109 $289,730 $338,138 $337,275 $334,747 $335,596 $323,311 $302,271 $101,956 51%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


WILDE LAKE


Table 22 shows the average change from the previous year and compares Wilde Lake to the villages overall and to Howard County


Table 22 – Wilde Lake, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Wilde Lake ($29,045) $15,811 $55,028 $47,621 $48,407 ($862) ($2,528) $849 ($12,285) ($21,039)



Wilde Lake % Change -14% 9% 29% 20% 17% 0% -1% 0% -4% -7%



11% 10% 7% 22% 16% 6% 2% -8% -9% 9%




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


WILDE LAKE


Figure 19 – Wilde Lake, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Wilde Lake Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND


WILDE LAKE


Figure 20 – Wilde Lake, Change in Average Residential Sales Prices from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Wilde Lake % Change Columbia Villages % Change Howard County (Other than Columbia) % Change

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Residential Sales Prices Trends – Composite

Table 23 contains a synopsis of the average sales prices for all of the geographic areas from 2000 through 2010.

Table 23 – Village Comparison, Average Residential Sales Price per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total

Change %

Change

Dorsey Search $154,567 $148,925 $133,177 $231,354 $262,840 $279,386 $291,406 $330,918 $300,678 $289,032 $322,608 $168,041 109%

Harper's Choice $175,996 $190,207 $241,126 $230,978 $330,961 $363,487 $387,436 $398,284 $363,783 $349,332 $361,268 $185,272 105%

Hickory Ridge $194,810 $226,188 $262,445 $270,953 $349,072 $379,895 $409,088 $449,289 $422,767 $364,162 $422,778 $227,968 117%

Kings Contrivance $165,543 $185,459 $218,825 $254,194 $307,343 $350,851 $366,122 $398,701 $363,253 $308,710 $298,482 $132,939 80%

Long Reach $143,419 $157,267 $169,270 $184,600 $233,437 $330,761 $350,124 $345,941 $306,865 $290,313 $291,707 $148,289 103%

Oakland Mills $142,972 $169,645 $185,607 $208,489 $254,757 $319,351 $343,867 $353,098 $309,852 $297,542 $314,502 $171,530 120%

Owen Brown $168,935 $168,859 $190,714 $231,218 $266,651 $329,845 $344,934 $352,158 $329,538 $317,849 $289,447 $120,512 71%

River Hill $306,718 $379,051 $354,294 $366,882 $403,657 $469,304 $527,144 $518,819 $562,029 $491,038 $421,286 $114,569 37%

Town Center $120,486 $99,021 $139,331 $166,827 $184,279 $282,070 $297,167 $264,042 $278,668 $249,189 $240,816 $120,330 100%

Wilde Lake $200,316 $171,270 $187,081 $242,109 $289,730 $338,138 $337,275 $334,747 $335,596 $323,311 $302,271 $101,956 51%



$240,953 $266,850 $292,697 $314,163 $382,364 $442,395 $469,989 $481,074 $441,406 $401,345 $437,573 $196,620 82%


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Figure 21 shows the average sales price change by village year over year.

Figure 21 – Village Comparison, Average Residential Sales Price Change Per Year, 2000 to 2010 Timeframe

$0.00

$5,000.00

$10,000.00

$15,000.00

$20,000.00

$25,000.00

Do

rsey Search

Harp

er's Ch

oice

Hicko

ry Rid

ge

Kin

gs Co

ntrivan

ce

Lon

g Re

ach

Oaklan

d M

ills

Ow

en B

row

n

River H

ill

Tow

n C

en

ter

Wild

e Lake

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Table 24 contains the average sales price change from the previous year for all geographic areas. The impact of the recession is apparent, with most areas showing declines in average area sales prices beginning with 2007 or 2008.

Table 24 – Village Comparison, Change in Average Residential Sales Price from Previous Year, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dorsey Search ($5,642) ($15,748) $98,177 $31,486 $16,547 $12,020 $39,512 ($30,240) ($11,646) $33,577

Harper’s Choice $14,211 $50,919 ($10,148) $99,983 $32,526 $23,949 $10,848 ($34,501) ($14,451) $11,936

Hickory Ridge $31,379 $36,257 $8,508 $78,119 $30,823 $29,193 $40,201 ($26,522) ($58,605) $58,616

Kings Contrivance $19,916 $33,366 $35,369 $53,148 $43,508 $15,271 $32,579 ($35,448) ($54,543) ($10,229)

Long Reach $13,848 $12,003 $15,330 $48,837 $97,324 $19,363 ($4,183) ($39,077) ($16,552) $1,394

Oakland Mills $26,673 $15,962 $22,882 $46,269 $64,594 $24,516 $9,230 ($43,246) ($12,309) $16,959

Owen Brown ($76) $21,855 $40,504 $35,433 $63,194 $15,089 $7,224 ($22,620) ($11,689) ($28,402)

River Hill $72,334 ($24,757) $12,588 $36,775 $65,648 $57,840 ($8,325) $43,210 ($70,991) ($69,752)

Town Center ($21,465) $40,310 $27,496 $17,452 $97,792 $15,097 ($33,125) $14,626 ($29,479) ($8,373)

Wilde Lake ($29,045) $15,811 $55,028 $47,621 $48,407 ($862) ($2,528) $849 ($12,285) ($21,039)




COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Figure 22 shows the average sales prices change in percent.

Figure 22 – Village Comparison, Percent Change in Average Residential Sales Price, 2000 through 2010

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Do

rsey S

earc

h

Ha

rper's

Choic

e

Hic

kory

Rid

ge

Kin

gs C

ontriv

ance

Lo

ng R

each

Oakla

nd M

ills

Ow

en

Bro

wn

Riv

er H

ill

Tow

n C

en

ter

Wild

e L

ake

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



The number of residential sales by year for each village is shown in Table 25. Long Reach, the village with the largest number of housing units, had the highest number of sales followed by Hickory Ridge, River Hill and Kings Contrivance. Dorsey Search had the lowest number of sales followed by Town Center, which is the smallest of Columbia’s villages.

Table 25 – Village Comparison, Residential Number of Sales per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Sales

Dorsey Search 10 16 22 26 38 38 42 44 29 19 12 296

Harper's Choice 55 62 77 89 116 126 89 91 45 67 61 878

Hickory Ridge 91 158 170 158 168 158 184 162 126 144 140 1659

Kings Contrivance 86 84 115 109 127 146 123 108 80 126 68 1,172

Long Reach 86 162 157 201 225 293 267 240 166 180 195 2,172

Oakland Mills 70 71 77 96 98 145 107 103 89 90 86 1,032

Owen Brown 59 80 99 130 137 153 127 119 86 106 105 1,201

River Hill 140 164 87 139 168 126 87 93 66 99 104 1,273

Town Center 45 29 26 36 53 49 40 53 32 36 43 442

Wilde Lake 62 54 70 90 108 140 116 100 84 80 70 974

Columbia Villages Total 704 880 900 1,074 1,238 1,374 1,182 1,113 803 947 884 11,099

Source: Developed by the Chesapeake Group, Inc., 2012.

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Non-Residential Sales Trends

Unlike residential sales, the numbers of non-residential sales in any given year was small. In fact, while the information is furnished in

this document on sales by geographic area, other than for Columbia in general and Howard County other than Columbia, the number of sales is too small for any statistically valid evaluation. As can be seen in Table 26, there are many years in almost all of the villages of

Columbia where there were three or fewer sales and, in some years, none whatsoever.

Table 26 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential Number of Sales per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total

Dorsey Search 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Harper’s Choice 0 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 6

Hickory Ridge 2 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 10

Kings Contrivance 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 11

Long Reach 3 2 3 2 12 3 3 0 7 2 7 44

Oakland Mills 5 1 1 2 3 8 3 4 3 2 3 35

Owen Brown 6 5 8 0 2 1 17 4 8 0 4 55

River Hill 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5

Town Center 1 0 2 4 2 1 1 6 3 7 6 33

Wilde Lake 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 7

Total Columbia Villages 19 12 22 11 26 17 25 15 22 11 26 206

Columbia (not within a Village) 19 12 16 12 19 40 37 41 27 9 27 259

Total Columbia 38 26 31 31 45 66 63 60 49 20 53 482

Howard County (Other than Columbia) 99 73 105 120 156 177 216 160 109 77 129 1,421


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Figure 23 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential Number of Sales per Year, 2000 through 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Total Columbia Total Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia) Columbia (Not within a Village)

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



The average sale per square foot of building varies substantially from a high of $932 to a low of just under $9. This is because of many variables, such as: use of property; condition of structure; intended for reuse or demolition; whether single building or a shopping or other center; condominium; and whether the sale included land and building or simply building; or low number of sales in some areas.

The details are shown in Table 27.

Table 27 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential Average Price per Square Foot of Building Area, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dorsey Search $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Harper’s Choice $0 $81 $0 $78 $0 $126 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Hickory Ridge $77 $0 $92 $140 $169 $413 $0 $0 $0 $0 $321

Kings Contrivance $0 $0 $607 $9 $196 $0 $0 $0 $346 $0 $226

Long Reach $176 $95 $132 $98 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $202 $300

Oakland Mills $159 $0 $0 $0 $80 $575 $613 $218 $288 $247 $167

Owen Brown $114 $177 $271 $0 $417 $0 $0 $0 $597 $0 $209

River Hill $0 $177 $0 $0 $534 $0 $222 $0 $0 $0 $0

Town Center $70 $0 $239 $346 $932 $368 $182 $0 $771 $346 $108

Wilde Lake $108 $126 $0 $0 $86 $0 $0 $88 $0 $0 $258

Total Columbia Villages $117 $133 $229 $159 $389 $435 $339 $153 $549 $265 $246

Total Columbia (not within a Village) $111 $183 $217 $195 $320 $253 $455 $417 $348 $257 $180

Total Columbia $117 $161 $209 $198 $428 $319 $229 $358 $337 $260 $297

Howard County (Other than Columbia) $165 $168 $195 $237 $304 $269 $354 $413 $449 $281 $293


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Even with the diversity of non-residential sales mentioned previously, the general trend in per square foot prices was to increase at least through 2007, after which there was a drop-off in the averages in Columbia and the following year in Howard County outside of Columbia. The details are shown in Table 28.

Table 28 – Village Comparison, Non-Residential: Annual Change in Average Price per Square Foot, 2000 through 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dorsey Search $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Harper’s Choice $81 ($81) $78 ($78) $126 ($126) $0 $0 $0 $0

Hickory Ridge ($77) $92 $48 $30 $244 ($413) $0 $0 $0 $321

Kings Contrivance $0 $607 ($599) $187 ($196) $0 $0 $346 ($346) $226

Long Reach ($81) $37 ($34) ($98) $0 $0 $0 $0 $202 $98

Oakland Mills ($159) $0 $0 $80 $495 $37 ($394) $69 ($41) ($79)

Owen Brown $63 $94 ($271) $417 ($417) $0 $0 $597 ($597) $209

River Hill $177 ($177) $0 $534 ($534) $222 ($222) $0 $0 $0

Town Center ($70) $239 $107 $586 ($564) ($187) ($182) $771 ($425) ($238)

Wilde Lake $18 ($126) $0 $86 ($86) $0 $88 ($88) $0 $258

Total Columbia Villages $15 $96 ($70) $229 $47 ($96) ($185) $396 ($284) ($19)

Total Columbia (not within a Village) $72 $33 ($21) $124 ($66) $201 ($38) ($69) ($90) ($77)

Total Columbia $44 $48 ($11) $230 ($109) ($91) $130 ($22) ($76) $37

Howard County (Other than Columbia) $3 $26 $42 $68 ($35) $85 $58 $36 ($167) $12


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Because of the variables and changes in number of sales in any given year, the total dollar volume of sales or total value of the properties changing hands differed significantly from year to year and location to location. The details are shown in Table 29.

Table 29 – Village Comparison, Sales Volume for Non-residential Property per Year, 2000 through 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dorsey Search $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Harper’s Choice $0 $212,500 $0 $245,000 $47,300,000 $673,200 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Hickory Ridge $240,000 $0 $287,900 $295,000 $542,600 $12,923,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $360,000

Kings Contrivance $0 $0 $7,470,000 $50,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,125,000 $0 $28,473,414

Long Reach $15,110,000 $322,000 $6,729,000 $1,239,000 $9,313,555 $983,190 $1,262,250 $0 $179,644,997 $842,500 $16,972,991

Oakland Mills $1,358,700 $190,000 $160,000 $297,600 $678,000 $32,168,376 $11,709,126 $1,097,500 $992,000 $536,700 $6,474,504

Owen Brown $11,297,500 $13,979,900 $15,893,552 $0 $1,979,471 $1,100,000 $10,354,178 $6,242,540 $74,247,904 $0 $31,381,820

River Hill $0 $419,034 $0 $0 $3,427,360 $493,600 $1,250,000 $0 $0 $0 $0

Town Center $1,400,000 $0 $6,688,954 $25,300,500 $42,000,000 $2,675,900 $10,933,738 $36,736,194 $16,330,551 $3,178,540 $31,449,828

Wilde Lake $218,000 $194,900 $0 $0 $65,000 $0 $0 $82,000 $0 $0 $1,149,084

Total Columbia Villages

$29,624,200 $15,318,334 $37,229,406 $27,427,100 $105,305,986 $51,017,266 $35,509,292 $44,158,234 $272,340,452 $4,557,740 $116,261,641

Total Columbia (not within a Village)

$47,817,832 $32,383,152 $91,141,504 $29,243,004 $210,401,877 $80,102,052 $42,557,104 $61,177,576 $138,462,804 $21,155,499 $120,689,919

Total Columbia $77,442,024 $35,010,040 $112,667,361 $72,563,653 $200,773,125 $177,979,362 $59,794,982 $81,564,660 $410,803,260 $25,713,240 $236,951,552


$136,244,196 $72,394,421 $186,812,430 $240,748,080 $302,128,944 $262,705,878 $275,367,168 $267,146,240 $278,336,732 $96,873,777 $615,680,880


COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Figure 24 – Sales Volume for Non-residential Property per Year, 2000 through 2010

$0

$100,000,000

$200,000,000

$300,000,000

$400,000,000

$500,000,000

$600,000,000

$700,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Columbia Total Columbia Villages Howard County (Other than Columbia) Total Columbia not within a Village

COLUMBIA, MARYLAND



Conclusion

The findings in this analysis are significant in the sense that few negative trends are discernible. Sometimes the inability to not find

issues or problems is as or more important than the identification of negative issues. From what can be discerned from the data, generally Columbia as a whole and its villages have fared well in the past decade, following national and regional patterns for

established communities, as well as when compared to Howard County in general.

Two geographic areas within Columbia seem to have residential sale price patterns that are worth mentioning. One of those two areas

– Town Center – is in the process of undergoing substantial new investment with a potential dramatic change in character for Downtown Columbia. While Town Center’s average sales price increased over the study period by a higher percentage than the overall average for all the villages, the average sales price for Town Center residential units in 2010 were below the norm for Columbia and were below the norm throughout the previous decade. In addition to the uncertainty associated with Downtown Columbia redevelopment during at least half of the last decade, another reason for these lower values in Town Center is certainly the residential unit composition of Town Center, which is comprised of almost all single-family attached and multi-family units, which generally bring

lower sale prices then single-family detached units.

The other geographic area is the residential market in Wilde Lake. The village experienced falling average sale prices in a few years before the commencement of the “great recession” and associated economic and housing issues. This suggests that a review of housing, social, investment patterns and other community factors should be undertaken either to understand existing issues or prevent

potential future ones. However, Wilde Lake is likely to benefit from the reinvestment to both Downtown, which is immediately adjacent to Wilde Lake, and its own village center, currently undergoing redevelopment.

In general, both commercial and residential markets have fared reasonably well and remained strong when compared to Howard County during the “great recession” period and its aftermath. There is no evidence to suggest that, in general, home and commercial

values will not increase as general national market forces strengthen.

ColumbiaAssociation.org

Documents

Sales Price Trends Report