Upload
tianna-murch
View
218
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 1
PM in Europe - State and past trendsPM in Europe - State and past trends
Emissions and concentration levels
Steinar Larssen
Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU)
European Topic Centre for Air Quality and Climate Change (ETC-ACC)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 2
Conclusions on PM emissionsConclusions on PM emissions
• PM emission and trends data have been improved, but are still uncertain
• Primary PM10 and precursor gases emissions have been reduced by 18 % and 40% since 1990, respectively.
• Source contributions:
- differs in EU15 and AC13
• Resuspension of particles from road surfaces in an important source, but poorly quantified; source strength highly dependent on weather/climatic conditions
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 3
PMPM1010
emissions, 2000emissions, 2000
Country Grouping
Country PM10 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
AC Bulgaria 93 184 982 120 56
AC Czech Republic 125 398 265 247 74
AC Estonia 33 41 95 34 9
AC Hungary 62 187 485 172 71
AC Latvia 13 37 18 96 12
AC Lithuania 20 48 43 61 25
AC Poland 314 922 1511 599 325
AC Romania 186 319 912 638 221
AC Slovakia 41 106 120 89 30
AC Slovenia 13 58 97 40 19
AC Total 900 2300 4528 2096 842
EFTA4 Iceland 0 40 44 10 0
EFTA4 Liechtenstein 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2
EFTA4 Norway 0 223 27 372 305
EFTA4 Switzerland 26 96 19 159 68
EFTA4 Total 26 359 90 542 373
EU15 Austria 47 184 41 239 68
EU15 Belgium 59 289 181 248 100
EU15 Denmark 34 207 27 132 101
EU15 Finland 48 236 74 160 33
EU15 France 567 1432 659 1660 791
EU15 Germany 887 1637 832 1653 624
EU15 Greece 41 382 541 398 74
EU15 Ireland 19 125 131 90 122
EU15 Italy 204 1485 923 1672 448
EU15 Luxembourg 5 17 3 15 7
EU15 Netherlands 53 421 91 281 153
EU15 Portugal 21 369 375 484 103
EU15 Spain 115 1419 1535 1585 518
EU15 Sweden 30 247 58 418 56
EU15 United Kingdom 172 1513 1166 1499 297
EU15 Total 2303 9963 6637 10533 3495
European emissions of primary PM10
and PM10
precursors, 2000 (in ktonnes)
29 countries
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 4
PMPM1010 emissions, 2000 emissions, 2000
Source contributions, primary PM10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Energy
Industries
Industry
(Energy +
Processes)
Other (Energy
+ Non Energy)
Road
Transport
Agriculture Waste
% c
on
trib
uti
on
EU15
AC13
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 5
PM emissions, 2000PM emissions, 2000
Source contributions, PM precursor gases (weighted)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
EnergyIndustries
Industry(Energy +
Processes)
Other (Energy+ Non Energy)
RoadTransport
Agriculture Waste
% c
on
trib
uti
on
EEA18
AC13
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 6
PMPM1010 emission trends 1990-2000 emission trends 1990-2000
Primary PM10 Precursor gases
0
1 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0
1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0
kto
nn
es S O 2
N O xN M V O C
N H 3
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
kto
nn
es SO2
NOxNMVOC
NH3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
kto
nn
es EFTA
AC
EU15
0
5 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
3 0 0 0
3 5 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 5 0 0
5 0 0 0
1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0
kto
nn
es E F T A
A C
E U 1 5
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 7
Conclusions on state of PMConclusions on state of PM1010, 2001, 2001
• Data from 928 stations (97 / 417 / 293 / 77)750 cities and towns
• Methods: Beta 40% ; Gravi 20% ; TEOM 20% ; nondef 20%
• Limit value exceedances at 34% of the stations
• Limit value exceedances in cities with total 30 mill people
• Population exposure: Remember importance of indoor exposure
• Average annual concentrations Rural 20.6 µg/m3
Urban 25.2 µg/m3
Traffic 32.1 µg/m3
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 8
• From 89 traffic/urban station pairs:– 35% higher concentration at traffic stations– Up to 90% higher
• Regional differences– Rural background higher in some accession countries
and in NL, BE and NW DE– Urban concentrations highest in Southern/Eastern
Europe?
• The indicative LV for 2010 was exceeded at most stations in cities and at about 50% at the rural sites.
• Significant uncertainty in such summary assessments due to– Representativeness of stations– Different monitoring methods
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 9
PMPM1010 concentrations, Europe 2001 concentrations, Europe 2001
Max. value
µg/m3
# stations > LV
Annual average 103 (Spain) 93 of 718
36th highest day 180 (Spain) 242 of 718
8th highest day 245 (Spain) 584 of 718
Some statistics
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 10
PMPM1010 2001 Map 2001 Map
PM10
Rural stations
Annual average
Note: different methods,no corrections(also following maps)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 11
PMPM1010 2001 Map 2001 Map
PM10
Rural stations
”Max 36”
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 12
PMPM1010 2001 Map 2001 Map
Urban background
”Max 36”
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 13
PMPM1010 2001 Map 2001 Map
PM 10
Hot spot
”Max 36”
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 14
””Population exposure” to PMPopulation exposure” to PM1010
Population in cities according to concentration range, ”max 36”
exposure of urban population in EEA-31exceedance days with daily mean > 50 ug/m3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
urb
an p
op
ula
tio
n(M
illi
on
)
0 days 1-7 days 8-35 days >35 days
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 15
PMPM1010 2001 Distribution of 2001 Distribution of concentrations at stations concentrations at stations
Rural stations
y = 1,65x
y = 2,4747x
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
annual average ug/m3
MAX8
MAX36
stage 1
stage 2
Linear (MAX36)
Linear (MAX8)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 16
PMPM1010 2001 Distribution of 2001 Distribution of concentrations at stations concentrations at stations
Urban stations
y = 1,6026x
y = 2,3613x
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
annual average ug/m3
MAX8
MAX36
stage 1
stage 2
Linear (MAX36)
Linear (MAX8)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 17
PM10 2001 Distribution ofPM10 2001 Distribution of concentrations at stations concentrations at stations
Street stations
y = 1,5476x
y = 2,1903x
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
annual average ug/m3
MAX8
MAX36
stage 2
stage 1
Linear (MAX36)
Linear (MAX8)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 18
PMPM1010 for station types for station types
PM10, Annual average mean - max
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
rural urban street
ug
/m3
2001max
mean
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 19
PMPM1010 at hot-spot stations, 2001 at hot-spot stations, 2001
Data from ”station pairs”Ratio PM10 street / PM10 urban, Annual average
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2,0
-1,9
1,9
-1,8
1,8
-1,7
1,7
-1,6
1,6
-1,5
1,5
-1,4
1,4
-1,3
1,3
-1,2
1,2
-1,1
1,1
-1,0
1,0
-0,9
0,9
-0,8
PM10 ratios of annual means
Average ratio: 1.34 0.25
Also up to 50 more daily exceedances at street station
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 20
Conclusions on PMConclusions on PM1010 past tendencies past tendencies
• Time series are too short (1997-2001) to conclude statistically on trend
• Only 6 countries have a significant amount of stations reporting data since 1997 (UK, NL, BE, CZ, CH, ES)
• The tendency is towards lower concentrations (15-20%) but the tendency is not monotonic
• The upward tendency since 1999 is to a large extent guided by the tendency in the Czech Republic.
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 21
• The tendency, and absolute amount of reduction, is on the average, about the same for rural, urban and hot-spot areas
• Much of the downward tendency can be explained by reductions in rural concentrations of secondary inorganic particles (SO4, NO3, ....)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 22
PMPM1010 concentration concentration tendenciestendencies 1997-2001 1997-2001
PM10 36th highest valueall stations
0
20
40
60
80
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 c
once
ntra
tion
(ug/
m3)
urban
street
rural
PM10 annual meanall stations with 4-5 mon years
0
20
40
60
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
con
cent
ratio
n (u
g/m
3)
urban
street
rural
Annual average183 stations
36th highest day193 stations
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 23
PMPM1010 trends trends1997-20011997-2001
s ign dow n ( 54)
s ign up ( 4)
n.s .dow n ( 82)
n.s .up ( 43)
PM 10
annua l m ean 1997 -2001
Location of stations with >4 years with data
Mainly UK, NL, BE, CH, CZ, ES
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 24
The use of correction factors for PMThe use of correction factors for PM1010
Information extracted from the Compliance Reporting Questionnaire, for 2001
Correction Factor for PM10: beta-absorption method
0
50
100
150
200
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Value of Correction Factor (+/- 0.05)
Num
ber
of s
tati
on
s
Correction Factor for PM10: gravimetric method
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Value of Correction Factor (+/- 0.05)
Num
ber
of s
tati
on
s
Correction Factor for PM10: oscillating
microbalance method
020406080
100120140
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Value of Correction Factor (+/- 0.05)
Num
ber
of s
tati
on
s
Total stations: 1098
No methods info on
353 stations
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 25
PMPM1010 correction factors on AirBase data correction factors on AirBase data
Belgium: No corrections till 2001 (included)1.37/1.47 from 2002 onwards
Germany: All PM10 data are in principle corrected PM10 data
Netherlands: 1.33 for all station years
Czech Republic: No correction applied
United Kingdom:
No correction applied
France:
Spain:
No correction applied
No correction applied
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 26
PM Rural tendencies 1992-2001PM Rural tendencies 1992-2001
PM (”SPM”) at EMEP stations, country averages
CH: PM10 from 1997 onwardsDE: PM10 from 1999 onwards
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
µg/
m3
CH(4)
DE(8)
ES(4)
JRC(1)
Source: EMEP-CCC
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 27
PM Rural tendencies 1997-2001PM Rural tendencies 1997-2001
Country averages
CH: PM10
DE: PM10 from 1999 onwards
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
µg/
m3
CH(6)
CZ(19)
UK(3)
NL(7)
DE(8)
ES(5)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 28
PMPM1010 Rural tendencies Rural tendencies
Secondary inorganic particles (SO4) (EMEP data)
SO4-S at EMEP Stations
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
ug S
/m3
DE(8) ES(5) FR(6) UK(7) CH(2) CZ(2) NL(2) SE(5) NO(5) DK(3)
FI(4) PL(4) SK(4) Average
Rough estimate of reduction of sulfate and nitrate particles 1997-2000: Source: EMEP-CCC ~ 5 µg/m3
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 29
PMPM1010 Urban tendencies 1997-2001 Urban tendencies 1997-2001
Urban background, 36th highest day, country averages
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
BE(3)
CH(4)
CZ(29)
UK(29)
NL(5)
PL(4)
SE(2)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 30
PMPM1010 Street tendencies 1997-2001 Street tendencies 1997-2001
Traffic stations, 36th highest day, country averages
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
160,00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
BE(4)
CH(2)
CZ(5)
DE(1)
ES(17)
FI(2)
UK(5)
NL(4)
PL(1)
PT(1)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 31
Conclusions on other PM metricsConclusions on other PM metrics
• Available data on PM2.5, PM1.0 and UFP are too scarce to draw firm conclusions
• The PM2.5 / PM10 ratio is about 0.65 (average 0.4-0.8)
• The indicative PM2.5 LV of 20 µg/m3 (aa) was
– met at all rural and most urban sites– exceeded at 15 or 23 traffic sites
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 32
• PM1.0 was reported from 15 stations in 4 countries
• The PM1.0 / PM2.5 ratio was about 0.75
• Annual average PM1.0 range: 6-21 µg/m3
• Max. 24 h concentration: 147 µg/m3
• UFP was reported from 15 stations in 5 countries
• High surplus burden of UFP at traffic sites
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 33
PMPM2.52.5 Concentrations, Europe 2001 Concentrations, Europe 2001
• 13 countries with data
• 119 station years
38 urban background
23 traffic
58 rural
• Methods: Gravimetry: 8 countries TEOM: 6 countries
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 34
PMPM2.52.5 at urban and street stations at urban and street stations
36 of 61 stations met a threshold of 20 µg/m3 in 2001
< 10
10-1
2,5
12,5
-15
15-1
7,5
17,5
-20
20-2
2,5
22,5
-25
25-2
7,5
27,5
-30
>30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
N
µg/m3
traffic
urban background
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 35
PMPM2.52.5 Ratio 90%-ile (day) to annual average Ratio 90%-ile (day) to annual average
PM2.5-statistics (2001 *); sites from: Germany, Portugal, Sweden, Spain
y = 1.677xR2 = 0.9076
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5 10 15 20 25 30
mean value (µg/m³)
90
-pe
rce
nti
le (
µg
/m³)
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 36
Ratio PMRatio PM2.5 2.5 / PM/ PM1010
From PM WG
questionnaire
Putaud et al.2002
Average 0.65 0.73
Range 0.42-0.82 0.57-0.85
Std. Dev. ±0.09 ±0.15
N 72
Somewhat higher at rural than at traffic stations,reflecting resuspension at traffic stations
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 37
PMPM1.01.0 concentrations, 2001 concentrations, 2001
• 4 countries
• 15 station years
• no rural stations
0-55-10
10-1515-20
20-25
UT
UB0
1
2
3
4
5
6
µg/m3
N
• Range: 6-21 µg/m3 annual average
• Max. daily: > 50 µg/m3 at most stations
• Max. 24 h conc: 147 µg/m3
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 38
PM ratiosPM ratios
PM2.5 / PM10 0.65 0.09 N = 72
PM1.0 / PM10 0.49 ± 0.16 N = 15
PM1.0 / PM2.5 0.73 0.11 N = 15
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 39
Ultra-fine particles, UFP 2001Ultra-fine particles, UFP 2001
Number size distributions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
<10 <50 <100 <280 <500 <800 <1000 Total
Size fraction
Nu
mb
er o
f U
FP
Traffic Urban background Rural background
S Larssen: PM-PP-Stockholm-Oct-2003.ppt slide 40
UFP 2001UFP 2001
Total number of particles
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0 1 2 3 4 5
Station type
Nu
mb
er
of
UF
P
R(B) SB U(B) T