RoTAP Chapter 7 European and Global Perspective 4-5 December 2008

RoTAP Chapter 7European and

Global Perspective

4-5 December 2008

P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008

2

Aspects of importance – based on RoTAP objectives Identify the effects of control strategies over the period 1980

to 2005 (incl. evidence of non-linearities). European emissions concentrations and deposition

Demonstrate the capabilities of models to simulate the past and present situation.

Apply models to future conditions - different control scenarios, climate change

Critical assess outcome with respect to methodologies, risks and impacts to ecosystems and crops

UK vs Europe

Importance of sources outside Europe – shipping, intercontinental transport and hemispheric background


3

Overall outline of the Chapter

Introduction

Trends in emissions, conc. & dep. over Europe 1980 – 2007

What Have We Achieved?

Effects of Climate Change on TAP

The Growing Scale

The Future: Is Europe on its way towards a clean air continent ?


4

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

SOx EU15 (excl. GB)

SOx GB

SOx EU25 - EU15

SO2 emissions in Europe 1990 - 2006


5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n, i

nd

ex

vs

. 19

90

SOx EU15 (excl. UK)

SOx UK

SOx EU25 - EU15

SO2. Relative reductions 1990-2006


6

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

NOx EU15 (excl. GB)

NOx GB

NOx EU25 - EU15

NOx emissions in Europe 1990-2006


7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n, i

nd

ex

vs

. 19

90

NOx EU15 (excl. UK)

NOx UK

NOx EU25 - EU15

NOx emissions. Relative change 1990-2006


8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

NH3 EU15 (excl. GB)

NH3 GB

NH3 EU25 - EU15

NH3 emissions in Europe


9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n, i

nd

ex

vs

. 19

90

NH3 EU15 (excl. UK)

NH3 UK

NH3 EU25 - EU15

NH3 emissions


10

Sulphur emissions 1980-2000

European Countries SO2

CE = Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland and Slovak Rep.-73%

CW = Austria, Switzerland and Germany-89%

E = Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia (European part)*

-73%

N = Denmark Finland Iceland, Norway and Sweden-87%

NW = Belgium, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Ireland and United Kingdom -76%

S = France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain-62%

SE = Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Slovenia, The FYROM Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine and Yugoslavia

-40%

TOTAL EUROPE (excluding ships ) -67%

Successful decrease of pollutant emissions, generally larger after 1990 when different Protocols came into force


11

The observed levels of SO2 and SO4 in air have decreased accordingly

Averaged air concentrations over all European stations in the EMEP network


12

Acid deposition to forests

Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997

meteorology

2000 2020 2020 Current legislation MTFR


13

What have we achieved?


14

The experiments show

N addition slow responseNITREX Gårdsjön, Sweden

Climate warming increased NO3CLIMEX Risdalsheia, Norway

Moldan unpub. Van Breemen et al. 1998 Ecosystems

Gårdsjön NITREX N in-out

0

100

200

300

400

500

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

me

q m

-2 y

r-1

NO3 in runoff

0

5

10

15

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

µe

q L

-1

control

treatment

pre-treatment treatment


15

Acidification – signs of recovery

Sulphate is going down in soil waters, surface waters etc. all over Europe. (WGE report 2004, Surface waters NIVA report 2008)

Inorg. Al is decreasing. ANC is increasing.

Biological responses: Lakes and streams have been studied to some extent (UK, Nordic countries, some countries on the continent, CZ, US)

There is a need for more follow-up studies


16

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

Cyp

rus

Cze

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Est

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Sp

ain

Sw

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en

UK

EU

-25

% o

f N

ati

on

al

Em

iss

ion

Ce

ilin

g 2

010

NEC 2010 National energy projection PRIMES €20 energy projection

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

Cyp

rus

Cze

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Est

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a

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ven

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Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

UK

EU

-25

% o

f N

ati

on

al

em

iss

ion

ceil

ing

fo

r 2

01

0


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep

ub

lic

De

nm

ark

Est

on

ia

Fin

lan

d

Fra

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Ge

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ny

Gre

ece

Hu

ng

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Ire

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d

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La

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Lith

ua

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Lu

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Ma

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Ne

the

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Po

lan

d

Po

rtu

ga

l

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

UK

EU

-25

% o

f N

ati

on

al

Em

iss

ion

Ce

ilin

g 2

010

NEC 2010 National energy projection CAPRI agricultural projection

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep

ub

lic

De

nm

ark

Est

on

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Fin

lan

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Fra

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Ge

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ny

Gre

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Hu

ng

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Ma

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UK

EU

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% o

f N

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Em

iss

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Ce

ilin

g 2

01

0


Issue 4: Compliance with national emission ceilings in 2010Emissions resulting from the national projections compared to NECs

SO2 NOx

VOC NH3

FR NL

DKIR MT

SP

AT

BE

DK

LU

SP

SWFR IR

BE

DK MT


17

Conclusions from the CAFE baseline projections

1. Emissions will further decline

– Present legislation and structural change will significantly reduce air pollution in the future

– Expected changes between 2000 and 2020 (EU-25):

– SO2: -65%

– NOx: -50%

– VOC: -45%

– PM2.5: -45%

– NH3: -4%


18



2. But: Air quality remains threat to human health– Approximately 5 months loss in life expectancy due to

PM, – Several 1000s premature deaths due to ozone


19



2. But: Air quality remains threat to human health

3. Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached– European forests

– will continue be exposed to ozone up to six times above sustainable levels

– 150.000 km2 (13%) will receive unsustainable acid deposition

– Many Natura2000 areas remain unprotected from acidification

– 13% of Swedish lakes will face excess of critical loads– 55% of European ecosystems will receive to high nitrogen

deposition, endangering bio-diversity


20



2. But: Air quality remains threat to human health

3. Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached

4. Relevance of sources will change– Traditional “large polluters” will reduce their contributions– Other sources will take over:

– SO2: Ships, industrial processes, small sources

– NOx: Ships, diesel heavy duty vehicles, off-road

– VOC: Solvents

– NH3: Agriculture

– PM: Wood burning, industrial processes


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More need to be done!!!!


22

SO2 cost curves for ships and land-based sources2020

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Emission removal potential, ktons SO2

Ma

rgin

al c

ost,

€/t S

O2

Measures proposed in the Themaric Strategy for land based sourcesAvailable measures for international shipping

Seawater scrubbing post-2010

Seawater scrubbing2000 -

0.5 % S Residual oil

1.5 % S Residual oilpre-2000

Documents

RoTAP Chapter 7 European and Global Perspective 4-5 December 2008