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A European perspective on sustainability. Professor Jacqueline McGlade Executive Director, European Environment Agency Reykjavik, Iceland 19 November 2005. SOER 2005. - Country Perspectives: Greenhouse gas emissions Energy consumption Renewable electricity - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
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Professor Jacqueline McGladeExecutive Director, European Environment Agency
Reykjavik, Iceland19 November 2005
A European perspective on sustainabilityA European perspective on sustainability
2 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
SOER 2005SOER 2005
- Country Perspectives:
• Greenhouse gas emissions• Energy consumption• Renewable electricity• Emissions of acidifying substances• Emission of ozone precursors• Freight transport demand• Area under organic farming• Municipal waste• Use of freshwater resources
3 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
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The European Environment Outlook The European Environment Outlook conceptconcept
• Exploring sustainability of baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100).
• Highlight the interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing Commission exercises when appropriate.
• Provide a coherent quantitative assessment as feasible, supplemented by qualitative analyses where needed.
• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.
4 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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The Analytical FrameworkThe Analytical Framework• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes
• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality (CAFE)• Water stress• Water quality
• Key driving forces (socio/technico/economic, DG TREN)• Demography• Economy activity• Technological and sectoral developments• Consumption patterns• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows
Common set of assumptions for driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis
5 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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Integrated quantitative assessmentIntegrated quantitative assessment
Water stress and water quality outlooks
Models WaterGAP (water use and availability), A model on nutrients from UWWT plants
Agriculture outlooks
Models CAPSIM (sectoral model)
Climate change and air pollution outlooks
Models PRIMES (energy & transport) POLES (energy & transport) TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emissions) RAINS (air pollution) IMAGE (climate change) Euromove (ecosystem composition)
Waste and material flows outlooks
Models A macro-econometric waste & material flows model
Results also used as input to other Technical Reports
'Household Consumption'EEA Technical Report
'Sustainable use of natural resources'
EEA Technical Report
'Halting the loss of biodiversity'EEA Technical Report
'Environmental aspects of enlargement'
Advisory Group
'Europe’s Environment & the Global Dimension'
Multimedia
'Environment & health'EEA Technical Report
'Climate change & sustainable energy'
EEA Technical Report State of the Environment and Outlook report
2005
'European Environment Outlook'EEA Technical Report
6 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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Key messagesKey messages
• The more fragmented European society is expected to increase some environmental pressures
90
95
100
105
110
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
EEA-31 EU-15 New-10
Index (1990 = 100)
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Number of households (EU-15) Number of households (New-10)Number of persons per household (EU-15) Number of persons per household (New-10)
Index (1990 = 100) units
Population development 1990-2030
7 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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Key messagesKey messages
• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented
• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)
Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year
EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)
NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global temperature change-'Baseline' Global temperature change-'Low emission scenario'
Degree Celsius
EU long-term sustainable target (6th EAP)
8 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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Key messagesKey messages
• The recent enlargement of the European Union is expected to provide both opportunities for and threats to the environment
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Organic supply (N, P, K)
Potassium(K)
Phosphate(P)
Nitrogen(N)
New-8 EU-15 %%
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Methane(CH4; animals)
Nitrous oxide(N2O; fertilizer)
Potassium(K)
Phosphate(P)
Ammonia losses(NH3)
Nitrogen(N)
New-8 EU-15 %
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)
Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year
EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)
NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)
Use of fertilisers, Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG emissions (2020/2001)
9 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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EN
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Key messagesKey messages• Air pollution and its
impacts on health and ecosystems are expected to decline significantly
Excess of nitrogen deposition (2000 and 2030 for the MFR scenario)
Emissions of air pollutants (Baseline and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenarios, index 100 in 2000)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
PM2.5
PM10
NH3
SO2
NMVOC
NOX
MFR (2030) Baseline (2030) Baseline (2010) NEC ceiling (2010) Year 2000
Index
10 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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Key messagesKey messages• Water use in Europe is
expected to become more sustainable, however many Mediterranean river basins will continue to face water stress
Water stress in large European river basins, 2000 and 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dauga
va
Rhone
Garon
ne
Nemun
asLo
ire
Danub
e
Vistula
Rhine
Oder
Elbe
Douro
Seine Po
Ebro
Tagus
Kizil Ir
mak
Guadia
na
Guada
lquivi
r
Wat
er E
xplo
itat
ion
In
dex
(%
)
2000 2030
11 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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Key messagesKey messages
• The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive is expected to reduce significantly the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Pe
rce
nt
of
po
pu
lati
on
Primary Secondary Tertiary Without treatment
New-5
Group 1 (EU-15)
Group 2 (EU-15)Group 3 (EU-15)
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Group 1 (EU-15)
Group 2 (EU-15)
Group 3 (EU-15)
New-5
Current situation UWWT Directive
kg N / inh. / yr
Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous from wastewater treatment plants
12 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.