Risk Assessment Framework for CO2 Geological Storage

Anna KorreImperial College London

CO2 GeoNet ProjectIntegrating Risk Assessment Tools in a

Consistent Framework for CO2 Geological Storage Performance Assessment

Co-ordinator: Imperial College London (IMPERIAL)

Partners: Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)

Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM)

Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP)

Methodology

The work programme consists of three interrelated tasks.

Task 1 Risk and performance assessment inventorycontents

1. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENTThe scenarios approachAssessment basis (FEPs databases)Scenarios construction methodologies

2. MODEL DEVELOPMENTConceptual models developmentProcess level modellingModelling tools (software codes) System level models

3. PROBABILISTIC ANALYSISTreatment of uncertaintiesProbabilistic performance assessmentSensitivity analysisExpert judgment elicitation

Task 3 Development of a consistent conceptual framework for CO2 storage performance assessment

The aims of this task are to:

- identify the strengths/weaknesses of existing/under development methodologies for CO2 storage performanceand risk assessment;

- determine the complimentary functionality or niche for each;

- identify gaps where improvements can be implemented; and

- harmonise the use of tools and methods under a unified conceptual framework.

Relevance of risk assessment to the lifetime stages of a CO2 storage project

data availability resolutionaccuracy

site specific knowledge

A. Site Selection

B. Storage Licensing

C. Storage Monitoring and Verification

D. Potential Leakage Mitigation Plan

Conceptual CO2 storage risk assessment framework

Pathway

Source

Receptor

Risk Evaluation

Risk Management

Risk communication

Risk Assessment

Ris

k E

stim

ati

on

Potential hazard assessment

Exposure assessment

Consequence assessment

Conceptual CO2 storage risk assessment framework

Risk Assessment

Tier 3Tier 3 Consequenceassessment

Source

Pathway Risk Evaluation

Tier 1Tier 1 Potential hazard assessment

Tier 2Tier 2 Exposure assessment

Receptor

Risk communication

Risk Management

Conceptual CO2 storage risk assessment framework

A. Site SelectionB. Storage LicensingC. Storage Monitoring

and VerificationD. Potential Leakage

Mitigation PlanTier 1Potential Hazard Assessment

Scenario analysis toolsFEPs analysis toolsConceptual model development tools

Data requirements: modest, use of generic data

Risk evaluation

Risk likelihood (likely, …, unlikely) and

Significance (negligible, marginal, significant)

Conceptual CO2 storage risk assessment framework

A. Site SelectionB. Storage LicensingC. Storage Monitoring

and VerificationD. Potential Leakage

Mitigation PlanTier 1Potential Hazard Assessment

Scenario analysis toolsFEPs analysis toolsConceptual model development toolsTreatment of uncertaintiesSystem level modelling

Data requirements: generic datacoarse site specific data (aggregation, audit)

Risk evaluation

Risk and significance qualitative,semi-quantitative

Performance: CO2 fluxEcosystem acceptable

levels(?)

Conceptual CO2 storage risk assessment framework

A. Site SelectionB. Storage LicensingC. Storage Monitoring

and VerificationD. Potential Leakage

Mitigation PlanTier 2Exposure Assessment

Process level modelling toolsfluid flow codes; geochemical codes; geomechanical codes, …ecosystem modelling codes(?)

System level modelsTreatment of uncertainties, natural heterogeneity (geological model)

Data requirements: site specific data, surrogate data from analogue sites(data audit)

Risk evaluation

Risk and significance quantitative

Performance: CO2 flux (volume, timescale)

Receptor based thresholds (?)

Conceptual CO2 storage risk assessment framework

A. Site SelectionB. Storage LicensingC. Storage Monitoring

and VerificationD. Potential Leakage

Mitigation PlanTier 3Consequence Assessment

Ecosystem modellingecotoxicity assessment, biodiversity impact assessment, dose - response curves

Data requirements: experimental data from laboratory and field studies

Risk evaluation

Receptor based thresholds (?)

Conceptual CO2 storage risk assessment framework

Source

Pathway

Receptor

Risk Evaluation

Tier 1Tier 1 Potential hazard assessment

Tier 2Tier 2 Exposure assessment

Tier 3Tier 3 Consequenceassessment

A. Site SelectionB. Storage Licensing

B. Storage LicensingC. Storage Monitoring

and VerificationD. Potential Leakage

Mitigation Plan

C. Storage Monitoring and Verification

D. Potential Leakage

Risk Assessment

Mitigation PlanRisk communication

Risk Management

Relevance of …

at the lifetime stages of a CO2 storage project

Site characterisationstandards for site characterisation (?)standards for site selection (?)

Risk Assessmentstandards for risk evaluation

A. Site SelectionB. Storage LicensingC. Storage Monitoring

and VerificationD. Potential Leakage

Mitigation PlanValue of Information

Risk Managementincluding risk communication