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Risk Assessment for Rare EventsApplication to terrorism: talk at Duke University
April 23rd 2008Richard Wilson
Mallinckrodt Research Professor of PhysicsHarvard University
Physicists are used to rare events:they occur with calculated probability
Molecules reaching the surface of a liquid usually turn back.
A few (fast ones) evaporate. This leads to vapor pressure (Clausius – Clapeyron)
Meteorites hit earth with roughly calculated frequencyrisk of extinction - 10-8/yr
Individual risk of Death - 5 x 10-7/yr
Rare Nuclear Power accidents first studied by physicistsAdvisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards –
Teller, Wigner, and Feynman
Before 1970, only accidents less than the MAXIMUM CREDIBLE ACCIDENT
were consideredThe landmark Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400) in 1975
was chaired by a physicist (Rasmussen)Looked quantitatively at the extreme events
(Low Probability; High Consequence)by a combination of EVENT TREES and FAULT TREES
First task:Define the problem.
Next task: break it into manageable component
partsfactorizable as much as possible
Nuclear Power was the first example
Simplified EVENT TREE for pipe break
Rate of Pipe Breaks F1Probability of ECCS (SF) failure P2Probability of Containment Failure P3Probability of wind blowing to City P4
IF INDEPENDENT
Overall rate = F1x P2 x P3 x P4FAULT TREE can be used to estimate
P2,P3, P4
GOOD BAD
F1 1/10,000yr 1/100yrP2 1/30 1/5P3 1/3 1/2P4 1/3 1/2
Overall 1/2.7million 1/2000
Are the probabilities coupled?A failure scenario which couples them is called a
Common Mode Failure
Fire or flood can couple the individual steps At Browns Ferry fire in a cable duct led to loss of control.
(solution: use redundant cable ducts)
The event tree enables us to focus on these correlations.Now every reactor has a detailed study
(Jargon - Probabilistic Risk Analysis -PRA)It enables the analyst to find weak points.
In the first PRA (Surry, VA) a simple change for about $50,000 reduced the calculated accident probability by a factor of 5
Industries now using Event Tree Analysis
1975 Nuclear Power WASH 1400;NUREG 75/014 1978 LNG: Keeney et al Techn. Rev. 81:64 1985 Oil refineries1985 Chemical plants2000 NASA2xxx Building Industry (not yet)Independence of steps not as easy as in nuclear power.
A saboteur can :take a nuclear engineering course
work at a nuclear plant as a “sleeper”
Then he can set off two bombs(1) To break a pipe and
(2) open a containment hole (3) when the wind is blowing to a city
If 6 terrorists act in concert it is easier
A saboteur (terrorist) can couple the different steps
Rasmussen said in 1978:“There is nothing a terrorist can do that
those clowns (operators at TMI ) did not do on their own”.
My response: A terrorist can increase the probability!
Especially a group of terrorists
World Trade Center 2001Steel Frame buildings must have the beams insulated to
stop bending in case of fire. The first steel buildings were more dangerous than wood ones.
Insulation used:1900 Concrete1960 Asbestos incl. mineral wool1970 Only mineral wool2010 Maybe material used in nose cones???
Who decides? Who knows?Examine FEMA report and later NIST report with jaundiced eyes
What is missing?
At WTC beams and links bent. WHY?Was the insulation there?
It was sprayed on dry, not wet. Did it stick?Did plumbers and electricians remove any?
DOES ANYONE KNOW?The consequence of WTC collapse
was more than 3000 deaths.It was a political change in the USA
Will there be a full, publicly available, study including high consequence low probability scenarios
before rebuilding?
Imagine what a terrorist might do: and
devise a system to make it hard for him to do it.
Stop the event as early in the chain as possible
(dont let trouble spots fester)
Event Tree Analysis
Suggested Event Scenario
(1) Stop creation of terrorists
(2) Keep weapons out of hands of terrorists(3) Keep potential terrorists away from
sensitive places(4) Make ALL individual targets more secure
Stop a scenario as early in the event chain as possible
Fewer terrorists than targets!
What makes a terrorist?
The organized Al Quaeda of 2001 no longer exists(Scott Atran)
Now organization by internetMadrid bombing was a group from one area of Morocco
terrorists are like ordinary people
2001 terrorists: educated. Not religious(Marc Sageman: “Leaderless Jihad”)
Why more terrorist suspects in Europe than USA?Frustration with lack of integration?
Watch internet grouping
Known Terrorist Groups with Assumed reasons for Frustration
Tamil Tigers - Sri LankaIRA - Ireland
Hamas military wing - Palestine/IsraelHezbollah - Lebanon
Basque separatists - SpainTaliban – NW Pakistan
“If there is hope and you kill a terrorist you have one terrorist less
If there is no hope and you kill a terrorist you have 10 terrorists more”
(Israeli General: Also Yugoslav experience in WWII)
Some important Psychologists:
Lord John Alderdice (Northern Ireland)Marc Sagerman (Interviews since 9/11)
Scott Atran Baruch Fischoff (Case Western)
Step 2.Keep weapons out of the hands of
terrorists
Firearms are easily available. Even AK57s But
Atomic Bombs?Biological material?
Nerve gases?
Step 2 keep weapons out of the hands of terrorists.
Only limited possibilities for ordinary weapons - including AK47s
ESSENTIAL FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONSNot easy for chemicals or
biological materials
Important to prioritize“If you guard your toothbrushes as carefully as you guard
your diamonds You will lose fewer toothbrushes but
you will lose more diamonds!”JH Van Vleck (circa 1955)
Be careful with fissile material: IAEA records
Step 3.Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length
Make it hard to enter the US keeping terrorists away from facilities
is where US is concentrating efforts
Inevitably conflicts with liberty and human rights
USSR system of closed areas – (Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk)
no longer works
Step 3
Importance of Secrecy As in military matters:
Strategic (long term issues) should be openTactics (short term issues) should be on a
“need to know”
I know, in general, where to fly an airplane to destroy a nuclear power plant, (not the
containment vessel)but on individual detail, I do not need to know
Step 4. Making Society Safer AEngineering and Industrial facilities
Do not store a lot of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one place. (Wigner 1974)
Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in remote areas. (In 1848 London decided to keep Petroleum products 30
miles from London bridge in Canvey Island)
Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.
Look at every industry for high consequence scenarios
The following accidents happened naturally
A terrorist can make them happen more often!
(1)Substation failure in Naperville ILL shut down landing system at O'Hare (and cut off my son's E mail)
(2) Broken relay shut down NE electricity for 5 hours (1967)(3) Storm cut major transmission lines in France for 4 days
(4) 1944 at Clapton Sands off duty US soldiers shot at insulators and shut down the line to Naval base
(punishment was being sent to Utah Beach...)
IF:20 terrorist sharp shooters each chose a transmission tower
in a remote area and at noon each shot at an insulatorMAYBE AT THE SAME TIME
other terrorists release gunk in subway....
Anyone guess the consequence?
There are many more terrorists than there are dangerous facilities.
BUT if the facilities are protected, a terrorist may do not do anything
Physical protectionbe wary
Possible “easy” terrorist Actions
Anthrax released in a high explosive bomb upwind of city can kill more people than a plutonium bomb
Silver cyanide plating solution dumped in reservoir after filtration
(possible in Oxford in 1949)
Biological material released in subway
Emergency exits not used in USARhode Island Fire people did not use
Fire protection, etc must be practiced.
Andrea Doria in collision in calm weather in fog and sank in 3 hours
100 people diedBritish troopship with families sunk in 1/2 hour
engineer killed in explosion all others saved!
Step 4 – Making Life Safer B
B Biological Processes Reducing Natural Epidemics also trains people to
reduce the risk of biological terrorism
1919 Flu; 2005 SARS
In disease spread there are 2 crucial numbers:
(i) average number of people a single person infects ~ 2.5
(ii) time between infections ~ 10 days
Act promptly to reduce (i) from 2.5 to 0.99At least 60% of all people must cooperate
(Successes - small pox;
Wash handsWear face mask especially infected people (Japan)
Don't go to work/school or travel if feverQuarantine; need for societal agreement
In community:radio temperature to central place to identify a
cluster of high fever. Then start more drastic action promptly
1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics
This is not emphasized by Public Health Professionals
Jeffery K. Taubenberger and David M. Morens Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; and National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
CDC Health Topics Vol. 12, No. 1January 2006
Fails to emphasize the importance of immediate action.
Airline Pilots will now resist a hijackingBar cockpit doors
Maybe set to control from ground or automatic
Use emergency exits regularly“The public may leave at the end of each
performance by all exit doors and at that time the doors shall be open”
Lord Chamberlain's regulations, UK
Easy access to first aid boxesIn a recent inspection in Boston, they were
locked up and noone had the key!
Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report instructive for what it missed out)
Insulation not tested for durabilityFire and initial impact destroyed all safety
mechanisms (Common mode failure not foreseen!)
Helicopter fire fighters?Protect buildings by cables from
towers or balloons?
The crucial questions in terrorism is the coupling between the steps.
A terrorist will choose to attack unprotected facilities and there are
many
Crucial Importance of Readiness for Response
If a terrorist knows that there will be a quick and intelligent response
it will be less attractive
Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high.
(expensive but possible;
e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the
temperature - time profile with calculation)
Anthrax in small amounts make only a local problemIrradiate all mail at sorting offices (Co60 or Cs137)
Anthrax spores released in a small HE bomb up wind can kill more people than a hydrogen bomb
poisoning water supplies? Emergency purification?
Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act in concert
Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life.
They will be with us until the end of
the human race.
We must not let terrorism distort our lives.
Other risks are bigger.Car accidents:
45,000/yr vs. 3,500 onceDrugs destroy society more
Security vs. FreedomOur human rights are what makes life worth living.
“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.”
Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com