Requirement for North America THORPEX Science Plan

Dr. Louis Uccellini

Director

NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction

North American Science Steering Committee Meeting

University of Maryland, August 14-15 2003

USWRPUSWRP

THORPEX Program Structure

THORPEX

ICSC THORPEX

IPOTHORPEX

ISSCWWRP/AREP

NASSC

ASC EUSSC

THORPEX

CAS

S HUSWRP

IWG

NASA NSF NOAA NAVY Others

WGNE/WCRP

•Commission on Atmospheric Science (CAS)•International Core Steering Committee (ICSC)•International Program Office (IPO)•International Science Steering Committee (ISSC)•North American Science Steering Committee (NASSC)•United States Weather Research Program (USWRP)

WorldMeteorological Organization

CANADA

USWRP Foci

Optimal MixTHORPEX

WRF/DTC/OTCJCSDA/SPoRT

Hurricane atLandfall

CAMEXCBLAST

JHT

Extended/QPF Forecasts

Warm Season (IHOP)Cool Season

Hydromet Test Bed

IPOLead Scientist

Societal ImpactsScience Processes

Coordination

Future Foci

SurfaceTransportation

AirQuality

IPO and USWRPProgram

Requirements & Support

PrimaryUSWRPScience

Foci

USWRPUSWRP

North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Joint Canadian-U.S. Ensemble Forecast System– Currently in Planning Stage

• Research to Operations– Merge two ensembles with 60 members– Produce “seamless” forecast out to 15 days for NA

• Accelerate improvements in probabalistic forecasting

North American Ensemble Forecast System(Project Elements)

• Exchange data• Statistically post-process both sets of ensembles

– Bias removal

– Forecast anomalies (downscaling)

• Merge ensembles – includes lag averaging– Evaluate added value

• Develop new products

CORE PROJECT

• Potential Applications– Targeted observations– Improved data assimilation

“Requirements” for NA THORPEX Science Plan

• Clear need for NA science plan within organizational construct of the THORPEX program

• Basis for participation of U.S. science/research agencies (through USWRP-IWG)

• Key to defining research basis for improving 15 day operational forecasting based on NAEFS

USWRPUSWRP