The progress of THORPEX activities in KMA

Dr. Kwan-Young Chung

Forecast Research Laboratory National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Korea

ContentsContents

• Scientific goals of high impact weather (HIW) studies at NIMR

• National observation sites for HIW studies

• GPSs network over the Seoul metropolitan area

• Cloud radar project at NIMR

• Predictability and observation experiment studies- Establish the targeted observation system over ocean- Conduct the Observing System Simulation Experiment - High resolution modeling in Korea- UAV project in Korea

A schematic of HIW researches at NIMRA schematic of HIW researches at NIMR

Vision

Goal

Perfor-mance

Develop supersites with a highly advanced facilities to reduce damages due to severe weather phenomena

Mitigate socio-economic damages by enhancing the predictability of severe weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall, typhoons, heavy snowfall, etc.

Three dimensional observations and surveillance of severe weather phenomena

Develop a conceptual model and investigate the genesis and the development mechanism of severe weather phenomena over the Korean Peninsula

Optimize the observation system to enhance the predictability of severe weather

Conduct advanced studies by using cutting-edge observation instruments

Scientific goalsScientific goals

Changwon meteorological observatory

National observation sites for HIW studiesNational observation sites for HIW studies

Boseong National Center for Intensive Observation of severe weather (NCIO)

Intensive metropolitan observation sites around Seoul

(completed by 2014) SeoulSeoul

By 2014, we plan to establish a super-site around the Seoul metropolitan area

BoseongBoseongChangwon

1) Establish a 3-dimensional network of observing water vapor, clouds, severe weather phenomena2) Improve the predictability of high impact weather around the metropolitan area.

Metropolitan observation sites near Seoul Metropolitan observation sites near Seoul

Ka-band cloud radar

VHF wind profiler

UHF wind profiler

Ceilometers

Lightning observing network

RadiometerMicro rain radar

Autosonde

GPS

30km30kmSeoulSeoul

LAYOUT FOR LAYOUT FOR THE INSTRUMENTSTHE INSTRUMENTS

Instrumentation at Boseong site Instrumentation at Boseong site

Microwave radiometer

Wind profiling radarCeilometer

Micro rain radar Parsivel disdrometerOptical rain gauge

1290-MHz wind profiler : SNR, Doppler velocity, SW, Doppler spectra, winds K-band micro rain radar (MRR) : Radar reflectivity, rain rate, DSD, etc.Parsivel disdrometer : Radar reflectivity, fall speed, rain rate, Drop size spectra, etc.Optical rain gauge : rain rateCeilometer : cloud base height, visibility, etc.

Instrumentation at Changwon siteInstrumentation at Changwon siteK-band micro rain radar (MRR) : Radar reflectivity, rain rate, DSD, etc.Parsivel disdrometer : Radar reflectivity, fall speed, rain rate, drop size spectra, etc.22-channel microwave radiometer (Radiometrics) : T, RH, PWV, LWP, etc.14-channel microwave radiometer (RPG) : T, RH, PWV, LWP, etc.Autosonde : T, RH, winds, etc.Automatic Weather System : surface T, RH, pressure, winds, rainfall rate, etc. 1290-MHz wind profiler (KMA) : SNR, Doppler velocity, SW, Doppler spectra, winds

We established 16 GPS stations and plan to add ~20 GPS by 2014 for observing water vapor amounts around the Seoul metropolitan area.

GPSs network in the Seoul metropolitan area GPSs network in the Seoul metropolitan area

GPS studies

• Utilizes PWV estimates derived from ground-based GPS measurements using a signal delay in the troposphere.

• Can use near real-time PWV estimates for monitoring water vapor changes and utilizing them for improving the NWP model prediction.

Current GPS stations in Korea

• GPS stations: ~100 (~16 with met sensors)• NIMR : 16 stations were installed to date,

20 GPSs are to be added by 2014

SeoulSeoul

PWV comparison between GPS and RAOB

Boseong site (NCIO)Boseong site (NCIO)

Gangwha site(~50 km west of Seoul

)

Gangwha site(~50 km west of Seoul

)

Changwon siteChangwon site

A Ka-band cloud radar will be installed by March 2013 at the Boseong site

Cloud radar project at NIMR Cloud radar project at NIMR

Radar system composition Radar system composition

Cloud Radar- Antenna & Pedestal- Transmitter & Receiver- Radar Control System- Radar Display System

Subsidiary Facilities- Diagnostic Laptop- Color Laser Printer- UPS(Uninterrupted Power Supply)- Web Camera- Lightning Protector(lightning rod, etc.)

Radar Software- Operating S/W- Observation S/W- Data processing & management S/W- Analysis S/W- Calibration S/W

cable

transmitter

receiverpower

rack

desk

seat

antenna

air condition

air condition

platform

Specifications Specifications

* Cloud Radar is manufactured by Beijing Institute of Radio Measurement(BIRM).: Delivered a cloud radar to the China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation (CASIC)and the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS)

Specifications

- Type : Pulsed Doppler, Dual polarization, Magnetron- Operating frequency : Ka-band(33.44GHz)- Sensitivity : ≤ -30dBZ @ 5km, 0.1sec. integration- Detection range : 180m – 15km- Azimuth : 0 ~ 360º- Elevation : -2º ~ 92º- Reflectivity : -50 ~ +30dBZ, accuracy ≤ 1dBZ(RMS)- Radial velocity : -20 ~ +20m/s(max), accuracy ≤ 1m/s(RMS)- Spectral width : 0 ~ 8m/s, accuracy ≤ 1m/s- Linear depolarization ratio : -30 ~ -5dBZ, accuracy ≤ 1dBZ- Range resolution : 15m, 30m, 60m- Angular resolution : ≤ 0.1º- Dimension(l x w x h) : 4500 x 2400 x 2257 mm(cabin only)

Data products Data products

< Original Data Product >Co-/Cross-polarized I/Q signal dataCo-/Cross-polarized power spectra data

Doppler spectra

Original Data ProductBasic Data ProductSecondary Data Product

< Basic Data Product >Reflectivity(R)Radial Velocity(RV)Spectral width(SW)Linear Depolarization Ratio(LDR)Signal Quality Index(SQI)Signal to Noise Ratio(SNR)

PPI

Vertical Pointing

RHI

( R )

(SW)

(RV)

(LDR)

Data productsData products

< Secondary Data Product >Cloud-base heightCloud thicknessLiquid water contentDrop-size distributionRainfall rateBright bandVertical wind profile

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.080.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5rain rate

I / mm/h

heig

ht /

km

Cloud height - thickness Rainfall rate profile

Bright band identification Wind profile

Original Data ProductBasic Data ProductSecondary Data Product

Cloud Lidars in KMACloud Lidars in KMA

Study for Cloud, Fog, Precipitation (KLAPS analysis)

Cooperation with KAF(Korea Air Force) (12 pieces)

FOG

RainCloud

CL51, CL31

• Tracking the storm scale HIW• Quick deployment of met. sensors to sparse observation areas where HIW is anticipated• Acquirement of very high dense measurements of surface variables

Mobile HIWs observation on vehicleMobile HIWs observation on vehicle

type year no usage

surface & sonde ’12-’13 4 Target area observation for sfc & upper air

surface observation ’14-’16 2/yr Dense surface observation for air mass fronts, Foehn and gap flows

Meteorological LIDAR ‘12-’14 1 High resolution measurement for clouds

x-band radar ‘14-’15 1 Storm scanning, chasing

Mobile HIWs observation on vehicleMobile HIWs observation on vehicleVariable Sensor type Range Resolution

Pressure Silicon capacitive 600 ~ 1100mb 0.01mb

Temperature Resistance -30 ~ 50°C 0.01°C

Relative Humidity Capacitance 0 ~ 100% 0.03%

Wind Direction Propeller-vane 0 ~ 60m/s 0.03m/s

Wind Speed Propeller-vane 0 ~ 355° 0.05°

Vehicle Location GPS 90°N/S,

180°E/W Est. 1m

Vehicle Speed GPS 0 ~>50m/s < 1m/s

Vehicle Heading GPS 0 ~ 360 < 1°

Data server

Laptop computerwireless

internet

Gateway

Mobile LIDAR systemMobile LIDAR systemPPI: Plan Position Indicator

RHI: Range-Height Indicator

3DI: Volume Image

Scan systemSlide door

Device rack

LIDAR

Lifter

Ex) NCAR arerosol LIDAR

Predictability & Observation Experiment in KoreaPredictability & Observation Experiment in Korea

Intensive Observation Campaigns conducted by NIMR

An adaptive observation study and observation experiment for enhancing the predictability of HIW- Since 2009 : Predictability and Observation Experiment of Korea(ProbeX)

National-level intensive observation campaign to understand the mechanism of severe weather phenomena- From 2001 to 2008 : Korea Enhanced Observing Program (KEOP)

Error growth “hot” zones

Why is the East Asia important ? - After 10 days, the United States would be affected ..

Korea Enhanced Observing Period (2001(2001--2008 )2008 )

KEOP 2002

East Asia Monsson

THORPEX (TTHORPEX (T--PARC 2008)PARC 2008)“Enhancing predictability of typhoon tracks & intensity using accurate obs. data”

Track of typhoon

Period : 1 August 2008 ~ 4 Octoberfocused on Western Pacific tropical cyclones, extratropical transition, and down-stream impactsPeriod : 1 August 2008 ~ 4 Octoberfocused on Western Pacific tropical cyclones, extratropical transition, and down-stream impacts

Extratropical Transition, Down-stream impactsNRL-P3

Tropical cyclone formationC130, DOTSTAR

Intensification, RecurvatureFalcon

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008/Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the TAiwan Region

Flight track and location of dropsondes

Sensitivity area

Dropsonde observation for typhoon surveillance over the western North Pacific

Establish the Targeted Observation SystemEstablish the Targeted Observation SystemAdjoint sensitivity represents the gradient of some forecast aspect with respect to the control variables of

model(i.e., initial conditions, boundary conditions, and parameters) (Errico, 1997)Response function : Dry-TE

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis(ESA) showed that the sensitivity regions for adaptive observations can be determined by the sensitivity of the forecast measure of interest to the initial ensembles.

Real – time adaptive observation

00z 12z 00z 12z06z 18z 06z 18z

Calculation

Post-process& Upload

Ti Ta Tv

24 hr

Data download& preprocess

24 hr

Targeted observation : Radiosonde, MRR, GPS etc.

ESA

00z

ADJ

`T `

` `T `

( , )( )

i i

i i i i

covJx var∂

= =∂

Jx J xx x x

22'2 '2 '2 '2 '2

, ,

1 ( ), ( )2

1 12

f r

y xs

R t t

gu v w pp dxdydN cσ

θ σθ ρ

= ⟨ ⟩

⎡ ⎤⎛ ⎞⎛ ⎞⎢ ⎥= + + + +⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦

∫∫∫

Me CMe

New Obs. Ship 2011Before 2011

Using German’s Plane

2015 Aircraft

Model : WRFV3.1Data Assimilation : EnKF (using DART)Simulation Data : ECMWF analysis U, V, T, Q (10 levels)Experiments : EXP1, EXP2, EXP3, EXP4, CNTL

Experiment Location Observation

EXP1 126.2°E, 33.9°N U, V, T, Q(925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100) EXP2 125°E, 34°N

EXP3 125°E, 31.5°N

EXP4 118°E, 36.5°NEXP4

EXP3

EXP2 EXP1 RMSE for 48hr SLP forecastEXP1 EXP2 EXP3 EXP4

Improvement(%) 2.3 5.2 7.8 9.5

Observing System Simulation ExperimentObserving System Simulation Experiment

Sensitivity

Observing System Experiments(Typhoon Meari) Observing System Experiments(Typhoon Meari)

9. JUL. 2011

CNTL

Initialized at 12 UTC 7JUL 2011

EXP

Initialized at 12 UTC 7JUL 2011

The experiment with GISNAG1 shows high ETS score above the critical value 10mm/12hr

With regard to ETS, the experiment with GISANG1 shows better score than control experiment

Initialization at 00 UTC 18 JulAveraged track error

CNTL: 96 km

EXP : 82.1 km

Improvement rate: 14.5 %

Initialization at 00 UTC 19 JulAveraged track error

CNTL : 141.9 km

GISANG1 : 128.9 km

Improvement rate: 9.1 %

Typhoon track errorTyphoon track error

Observing System Experiments Observing System Experiments

Wind profiler measurements of Typhoon Meari Wind profiler measurements of Typhoon Meari

Stronger winds and turbulence

Presence of large drops

Bright band

Strong Z streaks

Rainbands of MeariFrontal system

The “Changma” front has pre-existed from 22 June 2011 until Typhoon Meari approaches.

From 1400 UTC 25 June, the southern coastal area began to be directly affected by Meari.

Typhoon Meari moved north over the Yellow sea and became mid. lat. cyclone on 27 June.

Boseong site (NCIO)

Vortex center

Track of Meari

Frontal system

UAV in Stratosphere

Zephyr/Mercator (England)

Global Hawk ( US)

Fuel : Solar energyDuration of Flight : 30days(14 days in 2010)Pay load : 2.5kg, power : 50W,

Fuel : Air FuelDuration of Flight : 32 hrs (1st Scientific Flight in 2010)Pay load : about 680 kg, power : 3kW,

18~22km

S-UAV examples

GISTRadiometer Data

Processing CenterCalibration

���Ground Station

���Data Processing Center

Level 1 & Level 2BT Data, INS,

Orbit Data

Numerical Weather Modeling (NWM)Improve weather forecast(Water vapor, cloud liquidwater, etc.)

Climate change researchGPM local calibrationAcademic Research Etc.

Archive data

Cross track scan Foot print: 2~3 km

X-band data link

Stratosphere

Height: 20 km

Swath width: 40 km

Scan ± 45°

Operation of UAV in Korea (2013-2016)

High Resolution ModelHigh Resolution Model

Wild Fire modelling using WRF-FIRE

Horizontal resolution 200 m (U10, V10) from 1km WRF

High Resolution ModellingHigh Resolution Modelling

Very short range weather forecasting(up to 6 hrs)

Horizontal resolution : 100 m (U10, V10) from 1km WRF

[ winds 100m resolution] [ Application to several fields]

Thank you !!Thank you !!