Tetsuo Nakazawa

Chairman of Asian THORPEX Regional CommitteeAnd

Dehui Chen and Chun-Ho ChoCo chairs of Asian THORPEX Regional Committee

Tetsuo Nakazawa

Chairman of Asian THORPEX Regional CommitteeAnd

Dehui Chen and Chun-Ho ChoCo chairs of Asian THORPEX Regional Committee

Asian THORPEX ActivitiesAsian THORPEX Activities

OutlineOutline

Introduction

Research Objectives

Asian Regional Committee

TReC Plan

Summary

Introduction

Research Objectives

Asian Regional Committee

TReC Plan

Summary

Natural Disasters in Asia

Most serious phenomena are:-Flood-Wind storm(Typhoon,Cyclone)-Land slide(except earthquake)

Asia is the region characterized by monsoon climate with large population, many high-impact weather events; tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall, drought, dust storm, winter storm, etc.

Typhoons (2004/11-12) : A storm left 1000 dead/missing in the PhilippinesMiufa, Nanmadol Flash floods killed 41 in central Vietnam

Updated: 2004-11-25 11:16 The death toll from a weekend typhoon and a storm in the Philippines has risen to 79 people, and at least 86 others are missing, a disaster agency said on Wednesday. Nearly 11,000 houses were destroyed and more than 23,000 buildings damaged when Typhoon Muifa struck the Bicol region, southeast of Manila, during the weekend, affecting more than 250,000 people, said Neri Amparo, operations chief at the office of civil defence. (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/25/content_394781.htm)

2004-11-27 Flash floods triggered by Typhoon Muifa have killed at least 11 people in central Vietnam, officials said on Saturday. Rains started this week in the central region, wreaking havoc, but no damage has been reported to the harvest in the Central Highlands coffee belt. (http://en.ce.cn/World/Asia-Pacific/200411/27/t20041127_2410825.shtml)

Floods killed over 1000 in Bangladesh and India (Aug. 2004)

Dhaka

India (HDW) August 4, 2004 - A web of dark blue and black flood water covers the region surrounding the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, in this image, acquired on August 3, 2004. The Ganges River runs into the image from the upper left corner, and the Meghna River flows down from the upper right corner. The flood waters are slowing draining away, though the capital city remains partially submerged. New reports say that the floods have claimed 740 lives in Bangladesh, and the number is expected to rise as water-borne disease spreads. The floods were triggered by heavy monsoon rains in June and July. (http://www.hdweather.com/storm/storm_218.htm)

Sand & Dust Storm

Most severe in springOver China, Korea and JapanCause various problems in the breathing system

5th May, 1993

Meiyu Front

Tropical Cyclone

Indian Monsoon

Research Foci in Asian THORPEX

Tropics-Extra tropics

Winter MonsoonDust

Storm

Flooding

MJO

Moisture transportation jets in summer monsoon season

DroughtSnow Storms

Hemispheric Interactions

From Dehui Chen in CMA

High-Impact Weather Events In India

Monsoon• Monsoon onset prediction• Active monsoon (heavy rainfall)• Duration of break and active phases of monsoon• Tropical- extra tropical interactions over NW India• Intra-seasonal oscillation of monsoonPost Monsoon/ Winter• Tropical cyclone• North East monsoon• Western Disturbances with its associated snowfall, snow storms,

avalanches etc.• Onset and duration of cold spell• Occurrence of widespread fog, its onset and durationSummer• Heat Waves and dust storms

Russia Participation to THORPEXRussia Participation to THORPEX

1. Asia-THORPEX related research in Russia is in the sub-program Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies and covers the following areas:- spectral and semi-Lagrangian NWP models- ensemble prediction- typhoon prediction- stochastic modeling of “model errors”- impact of observational errors on data assimilation- Kalman Filtering- theoretic investigation of 4D-VAR techniques- probability laws of forecast-error distributions for decision making etc.

2. More collaboration and support is needed to promote Russian participation in observing experiments

Dynamic Process and Predictability

- Investigating mechanisms on the generation, intensification, decay and extratropical transition of typhoons;

- Investigating mechanisms on the generation and development of sub-synoptic cyclones along the Baiu/Meiyu/Changma frontal zone;

- Clarifying the role of the low-level moisture distribution on the development of meso-scale convective systems;

- Investigating the generation and maintenance mechanisms of Madden-Julian Oscillations and emanation of Rossby waves to extratropics.

Asian THORPEX Regional Committee(ARC)

• Planning Meeting in Tokyo, Feb. 2003

• Established in May 2003

• The 1st ARC meeting in Seoul, Mar. 2004

• The 2nd ARC meeting in Beijing, Nov. 2004

• Current ARC members: China,India, Japan, Korea, Russia

• Developed Asian THORPEX Implementation Plan

• Wider participation to the ARC is appreciated

Membership of Asian THORPEX Regional Committee(as of 23 October 2004)

China Dr. Jishan XueDr. Dehui Chen (Co-Chair)

India Dr. S.R. KalsiDr. A.K. Bohra

Japan Dr. Tetsuo Nakazawa (Chair)Dr. Tadashi Tsuyuki

Korea Dr. Chun-Ho Cho (Co-Chair)Dr. Woo-Jin Lee

Russia Dr. Mikhail D. TsyroulnikovDr. Elena D. Astakhova

ARC Responsibilities

- To identify the national and regional priorities;- To support and coordinate the planning and

implementation of all THORPEX activities conducted by the region;

- To organize and manage regional experiments, research activities, field campaigns, demonstration projects and other activities;

- To encourage and facilitate national contributions within the region;

- To be responsible for funding, logistical and other support;

Asian and National THORPEX Operation Centers(ATOCs & NTOCs)

ATOCs

Experimental Data Delivery(ex. EnsembleForecast of

Typhoon Track)

Information ofTargeting AreaFor ForecastImprovement

ATOC1. HQ during Obs. Ex.

over the Globe and Asia

2. Data archive and distribution center

3. TIGGE Asian center

Asian THORPEX Regional CampaignsTo improve forecasts of ANY high-impact weather events over the region,

such as- tropical cyclones (high wind, tide and rain);- heavy rainfalls (flood, land slide);- winter severe snows/winds;- dust and sand storms;- heat waves- MJO related phenomena (monsoon onset, TC generation);- Rossby wave breakdown for initiation of high-impact

weather events;- Beijing Olympic 2008 Demonstration Project;- droughts;

and more.

Case 1 Case 2

Multi-model Ensemble Predictionof Typhoon Tracks

Case 3 Case 4

(Up to 96 hour)

Observed track

Position at initial time

Ensemble track forecastup to 96 hours

Black : observed track

Red : control run

Blue and orange : perturbed run

Current Ensemble Track ForecastTyphoon case

Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Track Forecasts

Operational analysis at 500 hPa （12UTC 8 June 2004）

Broken circles: Areas with typhoon bogusing

Red: Dropsonde data by DOTSTAR (Wu et al. 2004 BAMS)

Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Track Forecasts

BST： Observation

RTN： Operational GSM with dropsonde datawith typhoon bogusing

NDS： Expriment 1w/o dropsonde datawith typhoon bogusing

NTS： Experiment 2w/o dropsonde dataw/o typhoon bogusing

Typhoon centers are plotted 6-hourly.

The amplification factor weighted energy of the first 10 SVs at the initial time (left) and the final time (right). Initial time is 26th August 2002.

Initial distribution of the first 10 SVs Final distribution of the first 10 SVs

28th August 200226th August 2002

TE

nor

mT

E n

orm

w/o

q

Target Areafor final SVs

The growing rate of perturbations around

the typhoon is relatively high.

Sensitivity Analysis with SV Method

21

UAVsPotential New Observation SystemsFor Tropical Cyclones

JAXA

AerosondeSmart Balloon

Test Aviation of Korean Test Aviation of Korean AerosondeAerosonde

Performance- Range : within 50 km- Altitude : to 4 km- Aviation: more than 20hrs

Observations- Pressure, Temperature, Humidity,

Wind

Operation- Autonomous by GPS

With the cooperation of Korea Aeronautical With the cooperation of Korea Aeronautical Research Institute (KARI).Research Institute (KARI).

TReC Plan for Tropical CyclonesObjective• Improvement of understanding and forecast skill on tropical

cyclone up to one weekAdaptive Observation• Environmental observation of a tropical cyclone by Smart

Balloon, Manned and Unmanned Aircraft Potential Participant Members• Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia,

Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. Status of Domestic Plans• CMA has a special observation experiment for a typhoon

landing program over South China. • Korea is conducting KEOP special observation experiment.• DOTSTAR by US, NTU THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC) Plan• Period: Hopefully in 2008 for TOST, after 2011 for TReC

Interactive Forecast System

Observation NWP Forecast

Interactive “Community” System

AcademicCommunity

OperationalCenter

UserCommunity

Interactive “Multi-Scale” System

LocalActivities

RegionalCommittee

InternationalActivities

Summary

• Asian THORPEX Regional Committee is developing the Implementation Plan.– Data Exchange– TReC Coordination– Research Collaboration– Regional Workshop– Asian THORPEX Operation Centers

• More Academic Involvement• More International Collaboration• More Participation in the Region

END