Report on the Mass Transit System

8/7/2019 Report on the Mass Transit System

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ARE WE THERE YET? - A RESEARCH ON

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION OF KARACHI

MASTERS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

BUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS

RESEARCH PROJECT REPORT

Prepared by

Noman Ahmed (0936130)

M. Zafir Zia (0936122)

Meraj Mazhar (0936118)

Summer Semester 2010

Project Manager

Mr. Saami Haamid

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A project in partial fulfillment of the award of

Masters of Business Administration

SZABIST - Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Institute of

Information Technology, Karachi.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We are thankful to almighty Allah, who gave us strength and courage to accomplish this

research project report. We would like to express our gratitude to Mr. SAAMI

HAAMID, the project advisor, for encouraging and guiding us during the course of this

project.

We are also thankful to those who provided us with relevant information that was

required for successful completion of this project. It has been an enriching experience

for us to conduct a research and gathering concerned data to create detailed report on the

Public Transportation System of Karachi.

We wish to express our sincere appreciation to those who have contributed directly orindirectly to this research report.

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ABSTRACT

Karachi is the economic and financial hub of Pakistan generating approximately 53.38%

of the total national revenues. Approximately 75% of the population falls in category of

poor or low income groups while the rest constitute middle or high income groups.

Urban transportation system of Karachi has no mass transit system and people rely

mainly on bus services. The people on average take 13.5 million mechanized trips per

day, of which 52% is made by public transport.

Urban Bus Scheme and Karachi Circular Railway are major project deemed to relieve the

congestions on the roads of the city. Only Urban Bus Scheme, however, has yet shown

considerable activity on part of public transport planning and implementation. This

system lacks inter-modal integration and sustainability due to which this system has

failed to cater to the growing commutation demands of masses.

This research study aims to investigate the demand and supply gap of the sector in light

of institutional capacity to develop and maintain. Also, this study attempts to compare

public transportation system of Karachi with comparable metropolis like Mumbai, Delhi

and Beijing. In last, the study attempts to explore socio-economic reasons behind delay of

Karachi Circular Railway.

The study has adopted descriptive and thematic analysis approach to achieve the

objectives. All the analysis, hereon, are done on secondary data gathered for the purpose.

This study concludes that an integrated, multi-modal and sustainable public

transportation system can only be achieved by giving a holistic approach to planning,

execution and capacity building of the sector.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1- LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................. 8

1.1 Population Overview ............................................................................... 8

1.2 Transportation Facts And Figures ........................................................ 9

1.3 Development Projects in the Transportation System of Karachi ..........12

1.4 Looming Issues and Academicians Viewpoints ..................................... 13

1.5 Theoretical Support for Improvement and Benchmarking .....................16

1.6 Like Countries Transportation Systems (Urban Transport Trends and

Policies in China and India: Impacts of Rapid Economic Growth, 2007)......19

2 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 21

3 SECTOR ISSUES ........................................................................................... 22

4 IMPORTANCE OF THE RESEARCH ................................................................ 23

5 OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................. 24

6 OBJECTIVE NO. 1 ......................................................................................... 25

6.1 Research Methodology .......................................................................... 25

6.2 Limitation .............................................................................................. 25

6.3 Null Hypothesis ..................................................................................... 25

6.4 Alternative Hypothesis ........................................................................ 25

6.5 Descriptive Analysis ............................................................................. 25

6.6 Calculations for Estimated Demand ...................................................... 29

6.7 Findings ................................................................................................. 30

7 OBJECTIVE NO. 2 ........................................................................................ 31

7.1 Research Methodology .......................................................................... 31

7.2 Limitation ............................................................................................. 31

7.3 Null Hypothesis ..................................................................................... 31

7.4 Alternative Hypothesis .......................................................................... 317.5 Thematic Analysis ................................................................................. 31

7.6 Findings ................................................................................................ 36

8 OBJECTIVE NO. 3 ........................................................................................ 38

8.1 Methodology ........................................................................................ 38

8.2 Null Hypothesis ..................................................................................... 38

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8.3 Alternative Hypothesis .......................................................................... 38

8.4 Comparative Analysis ............................................................................ 38

9 OBJECTIVE NO. 4 ........................................................................................ 42

9.1 Research Methodology ......................................................................... 42

9.2 Null Hypothesis .................................................................................... 42

9.3 Alternate Hypothesis ............................................................................ 42

9.4 Comparative/Gap Analysis ................................................................... 42

9.5 Findings ................................................................................................ 46

10 OBJECTIVE NO. 5 ...................................................................................... 48

10.1 Research Methodology ....................................................................... 48

10.2 Limitations ......................................................................................... 48

10.3 Null Hypothesis .................................................................................. 48

10.4 Alternate Hypothesis .......................................................................... 48

10.5 Thematic Analysis .............................................................................. 48

10.6 Findings .............................................................................................. 50

11 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................. 53

12 REFERENCES ............................................................................................ 55

13 BIBLIOGRAPHY .......................................................................................... 59

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LIST OF TABLES

1.2.1Table Growth Pattern of Vehicles (Actual) ........................................... 10

1.1.1Table Total Person Trips In Different Towns Of Karachi ...................... 11

6.5.1Table - Vehicles growth rates from 2002 to 2013 (extrapolated) ...........266.5.2Table - Actual and Estimated Number of Vehicles on Roads .................. 28

7.5.1Table - Top 10 Most Travelled Spots in Karachi...................................... 32

7.5.2Table - Average Travel Time, Delay and Speed ...................................... 34

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 6-1 - Vehicles Growth..........................................................................27

Figure 6-2 - Growth Trends of Vehicles and Cars versus Population..............27

Figure 6-3 Breakup of Public Transport Modes............................................29

Figure 6-4 Comparison of Actual vs. Estimated number of Coaches, Mini-

buses and Buses ...........................................................................................29

Figure 9-1 - Four Pillar Model for Sustainable Public Transportation System..44

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1- LITERATURE REVIEW

1.1 Population Overview

During the last 50 years, Pakistans population has increased from 33 million to 152.53

million in FY 2005, thus, making Pakistan the s1- LITERATURE REVIEWeventh most

populous country in the world (Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, 2005).

According to the 1998 Census Report, Karachi had a population of 9.2 million in 1998

compared with 5.2 million in 1981, a growth rate of 4.5% per annum. In 1998 the

National population was 130.5 million, and that of the Sindh province 30.4 million.

Growth rates since 1981 were 2.61% and 2.80% respectively, indicating rapid

urbanization in Karachi, which was also much higher than the national average growth

for urban areas of 3.45% and also for that of Sindh at 3.52%. On this basis population in

2015 for Karachi would reach 20.7 million and 26.4 million in 2020. (Karachi Mega

Cities Preparation Project, page 4, 2005)

Karachi, the capital of Sindh is the commercial hub and the gateway of Pakistan. It

generates approximately 53.38% of the total collections of the Federal Board of Revenue

(FBR Report, 06-07). The city handles 95% of Pakistans foreign trade; contributes 30%

to Pakistans manufacturing sector; and almost 90% of the head offices of the banks,

financial institutions and multinational companies operate in Karachi. The countrys

largest stock exchange is Karachi-based, making it the financial and commercial center of

the country. It also comprises about 40% of the total banking and insurance sector of the

country. Karachi contributes 20% of GDP, adds 45% of the national value added, retains

40% of the total national employment in large scale manufacturing, holds 50% of bank

deposits and contributes 25% of national revenues and 40% of provincial revenues.

(Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 3, 2005)

The CDG (City District Government) of Karachi is divided into 18 zones or towns. These

towns are governed by the town municipal administration. Each town administration is

responsible for infrastructure and spatial planning, development facilitation, and

municipal services (water, sanitation, solid waste, repairing roads, parks, street lights, and

traffic engineering) in a town, except those functions which are retained within the CDG.

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Intra-city transport now falls under the Local Government. (Karachi Mass Transit Cell,

City District Government, 2006).

Apart from in-migrants from Pakistans provinces, a large number of migrants from

Afghanistan, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries have settled in the city. With

an average monthly household income of Rs.15000, there is considerable variation in

income distribution. Roughly 75 percent of the households fall in the category of poor

and low income groups, and 25 percent constitute the middle and high income groups

(Karachi Strategic Plan 2020, 2007).

It is no longer possible to overlook the urban decay in Pakistan. Streets are littered with

waste, drains are overflowing with sewage, low-lying communities are inundated after

rainfall, traffic congestion is ubiquitous, and the violent crime in urban centers is on the

rise. The State either has divested from, or is no longer able to offer, reliable mass transit,

good quality and affordable primary education, and healthcare. This has given the

opportunity to the private sector to take up some of these roles (Vision 2030, 2006)

1.2 Transportation Facts And Figures

The population of Karachi City District relies almost entirely on the road network for

urban transportation. There is currently no mass transit system per se, although many

commute using the network of bus routes. There are nearly 13.5 million mechanized trips

made each day within the CDGK area, of which 52 percent are made by public and 48

percent by private transport. There are 1.3 million registered vehicles in Karachi (almost

50 percent of the national total) and private vehicles mainly motorcycles and cars

now constitute 83 percent of total registered vehicles while buses and min-buses

constitute only 1.5 percent (Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 14, 2005).

In 2002 the total registered vehicles and cars were growing at twice the growth rate of the

population while the vehicle fleet is dominated by cars and motorcycles, which account

for 92% of the vehicles as compared to 6% for para-transit vehicles and 2% for public

transport vehicles. The buses/minibuses are the most important mode of public transport

in Karachi and better transport management strategies, service, accessibility, and

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affordability can help reduce the use of private vehicles (Urban Transport and Sustainable

Transport Strategies, 2007).

The intra-city road network has a radial pattern, consisting of a series of arterials, a few

circumferential roads with inconsistent links and a disproportionately large number of

local and collector roads. In terms of connectivity, the network is deficient in secondary

roads that provide feeder service to major thoroughfares. The weakness has basically

arisen from the piece-meal development focused on residential schemes in the past

(Karachi Strategic Plan 2020, 2007).

The availability of public transport has not grown at the same rate as the population in

Pakistani cities (Sohail et al. 2006). With growth rates for private vehicles at over 9

percent, there are now over 280 new vehicles added to the streets of Karachi each day

(Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 14, 2005).

For Total length of the road network spanning 8000 Km, total No. of Vehicles in

Karachi up to 2007

(Source: Wajid Ali Khan Deputy Inspector General Traffic Police Karachi 16th April 2008, A presentation

at Urban Resource Centre, Karachi & Per Person Trip Study of Karachi by JICA December 2005)

1.2.1 Table Growth Pattern of Vehicles (Actual)

S.No. Years Total No. of Registered

Vehicles in Karachi

Annual

Increase

Monthly

Increase

Daily

Increase

1 2002 1,113,917 30,640 2,553 84

2 2003 1,177,315 63,398 5,283 174

3 2004 1,280,349 102,934 8,578 282

4 2005 1,431,994 151,745 12,645 415

5 2006 1,610,757 1,78,763 14.897 489

6 2007 1,809,500 198,743 16,562 545

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(Urban Transport and Sustainable Transport Strategies, 2007).

This rapid rise in personal vehicle ownership and the lack of economic instruments, such

as charged parking and road pricing, has led to enormous congestion especially in the

central part of the city

While there has been, and continues to, be a significant programme of road building,

there has been no complementary investment in public transport systems. There had been

plans for the introduction of rail-based mass transit systems. A major light rail mass

transit system for Karachi has been planned since 1973, and earlier there was a proposal

to develop and expand the Karachi Circular Railway (KCR). However, despite attempts

to attract private sector investment for these schemes they have yet to be realized

(Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 14, 2005).

1.1.1 Table Total Person Trips In Different Towns Of Karachi

S.No Place

Description

Town Code %

Contribution

to Total

Total Person

Trips

1 Liaquatabad

No-10

Liaquatabad Town 5.33 1,290,678

2 Banaras Chowk SITE Town 4.93 1,194,016

3 Nagan

Chowrangi

New Karachi Town 3.71 899,511

4 Quaidabad Bin Qasim Town 3.39 822,321

5 Tower Saddar Town 3.01 729,831

6 Nipa

Chowrangi

Gulshan-e-Iqbal

Town

2.95 713,837

7 Korangi 1 Korangi Town 2.85 690,541

8 Baloch Colony Jamshed Town 2.83 636,716

9 Garden Saddar Town 2.53 611,959

10 Numaish Saddar Town 2.50 605,701

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1.3 Development Projects in the Transportation System of Karachi

Urban Bus Scheme

This scheme proposed a strategy to revamp the road- based public transport system in the

city by replacing the mini buses with large buses using environmentally friendly fuelslike compressed natural gas (CNG) to provide efficient, comfortable, reliable, safe, and

environmentally friendly transport to the general public. Presently, more than 300 large

capacity buses have been deployed on the roads and 8000 more CNG buses will soon be

included in the fleet with the government allocating Rupees 5 billion (US$ 83.3 million)

for the city transport. This allocation is being made to mitigate the issues of severe

overcrowding, congestion, deteriorating service, and environmental pollution associated

with the existing 81% of individually owned, low capacity, environmentally damaging

minibuses/coaches. (Business Recorder, 2005)

Lyari Expressway and Northern bypass

The construction of the 32.1 km long 4 lane Lyari expressway will improve inner city

vehicular movement, while the 57 km long 6 lane Northern bypass planned to divert

heavy upcountry traffic outside the city will hopefully ease traffic pressure in the city and

will give a much cleaner and pleasant environment to the people. Moreover, for fiscal

year 2005-2006, the city government has approved Rupees 6.00 billion (US$ 100 million)for construction of roads, bridges, flyovers, under passes, bus terminals, and other

development works and US$ 225 million for construction of a 24-km-long elevated

expressway. However, the current modernization of the transport infrastructure

(construction of the elevated expressway, underpasses, flyovers, etc.) which seeks to

solve Karachis traffic congestion will provide no more than temporary relief. The

experience of other mega cities suggests that a huge investment on construction of high

capacity roads and the provision of a large number of flyovers and underpasses will not

mitigate traffic congestion or enhance vehicle speed. For example, the congestion in

Beijing can be quantified from the declining vehicle speeds from 45 km/h in 1994 to 10

km/h in 2005 especially between the second and third ring roads, which is now extending

beyond fourth ring road and along major radial and arterial roads (Daily Dawn, 2006)

Rail-based Mass Transit System

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A rail-based mass transit master plan has identified three corridors with the revival of the

KCR as an integral part of the system. The whole project will be built on the Build

Operate Transfer (BOT) basis. Corridor 1 that runs northeast and south-west will be

constructed in two stages. Stage one is a 15.2-km route which will have some elevated

and some underground portions, with Stage two extending the system to another 8 km.

Corridor 2 will have a 13.4-km line along the north and south axis of the city (The World

Bank, 2006)

1.4 Looming Issues and Academicians Viewpoints

Keeping in view the urban structure and associated transport infrastructure, Karachi is

likely to suffer the quality of transportation available, which in turn affects peoples

opportunities and quality of life. Transport facilities, activities and services impose many

indirect and external costs, such as congestion delay and accident risk imposed on other

road users, infrastructure costs not funded through user fees, pollution, and undesirable

land use impacts. A significant amount of valuable land is devoted to transport facilities.

This land is generally exempt from rent and taxes, representing an additional but hidden

subsidy of transport activity (Evaluating Transportation Equity, 2007).

The necessity of addressing serious environmental challenges makes the already complex

business of transportation planning extremely difficult. Designing corridors, streets andthoroughfares to provide safe movement and access to people and goods, by cost-

effective means, involves application of management and technology to resolve many

social, economic and political force (Homer Dixon, 2001)

The government authorities, in the light of World Bank guidelines, have tried to improve

bus systems rather than take the initiative in rail-based public transport due to the

flexibility and lower cost of bus transport. However, high cost and inflexibility associated

with a rail-based mode of travel gives it a high profile as a symbol of politicalcommitment and financial security for public transport (Hass-Klau et al, 2003)

It has been declared that railways should be a backbone of public transport in Pakistan.

But this policy has not been realized so far due to the unavailability of finances for

railway development. If the demand for public transport in Pakistan is estimated, only

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rail-based public transport would have the potential to carry large numbers of passengers

with higher speeds and smoother rides. The most significant potential of rail over buses is

its influence on urban land by enhancing development activity around rail lines and

stations. All Pakistani cities have an infrastructure of railways inherited from British rule;

therefore, rail-based public transport can play a catalytic role in the urban development

and regeneration of Pakistani cities (Imran, 2009)

The bus transport is privately owned and is operated on designated routes. The bus

service is poor, inefficient and uncomfortable for the passengers; at peak hours it is

grossly inadequate with intolerable overcrowding and discomfort. There is disparity

between the number of seats available and the passengers, as indicated by the current

passenger seat ratio of 1:34. The service is used by most of the low-income and poor

people (Karachi Strategic Plan 2020, 2007). In the presence of a low level of public

transport services, middle- and higher-income people living in larger cities prefer private

vehicles, either motorcycle or car, for travel (Imran, 2009).

Much-needed CNG-powered buses will start playing on 40 designated routes in the city

any time during the next financial year as the ground work for the launching of the

scheme has been completed in all respects, according to well-placed city government

officials. The government is now looking to the banking sector to offer financial

packages to the public transport operators interested in bringing the CNG buses to the

city, said sources privy to the Karachi Mass Transit Cell. (Dawn, May 30, 2010)

JICA dispatched a study team on Future Traffic Demand Forecast for Karachi City. This

study includes the review of person trip data, assignment of exiting traffic on Karachi

road network and its verification through person trip data. It also focuses on actual traffic

count on selected locations and assignment of future traffic on the road network for the

target year 2020. The study will provide useful knowledge and information for transportplanning like Karachi Circular Railway (KCR), mass transit system and Flyovers etc. The

purpose of the study is to build models for the future transport demand on the master plan

of Karachi city; To give suggestions on the future transport situation in terms of the

demand for the year 2020; and to develop the capacity of the related organization on

future traffic demand forecast methodology by using System for Traffic Demand

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Analysis (STRADA). STRADA is a system developed by JICA for traffic demand

analysis. In line with the determination to assist Pakistan in development projects to

vitalize Karachi city, government of Japan in collaboration with the Pakistani counterpart

is trying to solve major issues facing Karachi like water supply and sewerage system;

solid waste management and mass transit system. JICA is the official Agency of the

government of Japan and undertakes the transfer of Japanese knowledge and experience

from the people of Japan to the people of Pakistan. JICA Pakistan office is actively

cooperating with the government of Pakistan since 1983 in Health, Education, Sanitation,

Agriculture, Irrigation, Environment, and Governance. (Japan International Corporation

Agency, 2008)

Public transport faces severe problems in almost all countries of the developing world,

although the situation varies from one country to another and even from one city to

another (Vasconcellos, 200). Organizations responsible for transport planning and

implementation of projects need to develop public transport policies that take into

consideration the high-density mixed land use pattern of its cities (Imran, 2009). It seems

that these criteria have been overlooked in the provision and development of public

transport. Otherwise, the land use pattern in Pakistani cities requires rail-based public

transport due to its potential to transport large numbers of people quickly, reliably,

comfortably, and safely in high-density areas. The governments development efforts to

date have been hampered by the lack of a clear policy/strategy for integrated

development of the sector and the absence of a single transport ministry or authority

responsible for coordination between competing modes.(Karachi Mass Transit Cell

Report, 2006)

Adoption of the principles of sustainable transportation has become more important in

Karachi, where the inefficient public transportation system and rising incomes have

stimulated the demand for personal mobility with increased automobile ownership and

use. Growing motorization combined with inadequate traffic management strategies, an

aging and ill maintained vehicle stock, and inadequate land use and transportation

planning, has all led to a significant level of traffic congestion resulting in longer travel

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times, additional fuel, high pollution levels, and a deteriorating urban environment that

has a direct bearing on sustainable development.(Qureshi, 2007)

The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council has approved a revival of a

circular rail to run around Karachi. The Rs128.5 billion project will link points in Karachi

through what is envisaged as a modern rail system with high standards, and aims to carry

about 700,000 commuters daily in t he country's largest city The challenges will lie in

how well the project can be implemented (Daily The News, 2009).

Pakistan Transport Plan Study (PTPS, 2008) said

"Assuming that the Pakistani economy grows following the medium growth scenario that

is at 7 percent per annum until 2010 and 5-6 percent in 2011 to 2025, the cumulative

GDP will reach 4,255 billion dollar in the coming 20 years. However, an appropriate

amount of investment in the transportation sector will largely depend on the infrastructure

stock and the demand/supply gap in Pakistan, about 0.9 percent of GDP has been

invested in the transportation sector and the master plan aims at 1.5 percent of GDP

during 2006 to 2010

In 1992, the Karachi Mass Transit Project (KTMP) proposal, prepared by World Bank

consultants, was finalized. The project was to consist of six elevated light rail transit

ways to be built on a Built OperateTransfer basis through an international tender. The

URC invited the director of the Karachi Development Authoritys Mass Transit Cell and

its technical expert to make presentations to NGOs, community organizations, concerned

citizens, academics and the media. The URCs own reservations were finally expressed in

a newspaper article in January 1994 (URC Introduction Case Study by Arif Hasan)

1.5 Theoretical Support for Improvement and Benchmarking

Every transit project is cost effective or that transit is always the best solution to everytransport problems. However, transit improvements tend to provide significantly more

value to society than conventional models indicate. There are four general categories of

transit improvements to consider (Evaluating Public Transit Benefits and Costs, Best

Practices Guidebook, February 2010):

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Increased service (more transit vehicle-miles)

Improved service (more comfortable, convenient, reliable, etc.).

Incentives to use transit (lower fares, commuter financial incentives, marketing,

etc.).

Transit oriented development (land use patterns designed to support transit,

including more compact, walkable, mixed development around transit stations

and corridors)

Adequate finance, infrastructure, and urban planning are important for public transport

planning, but the critical requirement is effective governance. Effective governance

included appropriate organizations with the necessary powers, skills, finance, and

responsibilities for public transport planning (Kennedy et al, 2005). These characteristics

of governance were not present in public transport organizations in Pakistan. These

organizations have a long history of deficiency in professional, administrative, and

financial capacity to manage public transport service planning (Imran 2006; Haider and

Badami 2007). The presence of mixed land use, high population and employment

density, and growing needs of motorized transport use in Pakistani cities shows a

potential to establish a multimodal transport system at metropolitan level (Imran, 2009).

The absence of integrated transport and land use planning means that development

projects are implemented by various departments without taking into account urban

ecological systems, resources, and social and economic factors. Different city structures

(land use patterns) need different transportation systems. The planning should aim at

maximizing the urban transport system efficiency for the environmental and city resource

constraints. A dynamic relationship between the city structure and the urban

transportation systems will help maximize social benefits and sustainable development

(Qureshi, 2007). A transport proposal should not be evaluated only on transport criteria,

but also on land use, social, and environmental grounds (Mitchell and Rapkin, 1954).

Pratt (1999); Rood (1999); Phillips et al (2001); Kittleson & Associates (2003a); Tumlin,

et al (2005); AARP (2005); provide guidance on evaluating transit service quality from

various perspectives, including the following factors:

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Availability (when and where transit service is available), and coverage (the

portion of a geographic area, or the portion of common destinations in a

community, located within reasonable distance of transit service.

Frequency (how many trips are made each hour or day).

Travel speed(absolute and relative to automobile travel).

Reliability (how frequently service follows published schedules).

Integration (ease of transferring within the transit system and with other travel

modes).

Price structure andpayment options.

Usercomfortandsecurity, including riding on, walking to, and waiting for transit.

Accessibility (ease of reaching transit stations and stops, particularly by walking).

Universal design (ability to accommodate diverse users including people with

disabilities, baggage, inability to understand local languages, etc.).

Affordability (user costs relative to their income and other travel options).

Information (ease of obtaining information about transit services).

Aesthetics (appearance of transit vehicles, stations, waiting areas and documents).

Amenity (extra features and services that enhance user comfort and enjoyment).

Levinger and McGehee (2008) recommend that planners optimize the following factors

to improve transit services and attract new riders:

Ease. Is the system or product easy to use? What difficulties do new users face?

Transit example: Are your timetables legible and easily decipherable, even by

inexperienced users? Are transfers convenient?

Effectiveness. How well does the system help users complete a task? Does the

product serve its purpose well? Transit example: Do routes operate on time and

on predictable schedules? Can passengers make their desired trips in a reasonable

time?

Comfort. Do users feel safe, secure, and relaxed when using a product? Does use

ever cause discomfort? Transit example: Do stops, stations and vehicles and

vehicles always feel safe and secure? Do seats accommodate passengers of

different sizes and abilities?

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Aesthetics. Simply, does the product appeal to users? Is it visually and tactilely

appealing? How does using the system affect all five senses? Transit examples:

Are vehicles clean, outside and inside? Do the vehicles temperature, fabrics, and

hand-holds feel good? Are there any unpleasant smells, glaring lights, or blaring

audio systems?

1.6 Like Countries Transportation Systems (Urban Transport Trends

and Policies in China and India: Impacts of Rapid Economic

Growth, 2007).

To set benchmarks for future development, cities with similar urban characteristics and

demographics can be taken into account. For instance, rapid growth of both Chinese and

Indian cities has dramatically increased demand for land and travel in urban areas, thus

putting enormous pressure on transport and other kinds of public infrastructure. Since

1990, the total number of motor vehicles has roughly tripled in India and has increased

tenfold in China). There is less variation among Chinese cities. Even in Chinas two

largest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, non-motorized transport accounts for 4055% of

trips. The non-motorized share ranges from about 70% to 80% for most of the smaller

Chinese cities.

A few cities provide statistics on trends in travel over time, and most such information

suggests declines in walking and cycling and rapid increases in the use of private cars and

motorcycles. In Shanghai, for example, the combined modal share of walking and cycling

fell from 72% in 1986 to 54% in 2004 (Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation

Planning Institute (SCCTPI), 2005). The falling non-motorized share of trips is due to

increasing trip distances in expanding cities as well as increased ownership and use of

private cars and motorcycles with rising incomes. Moreover, cycling and walking

facilities in Chinese cities have been worsening: many pavements and cycle lanes are

being eliminated or narrowed to accommodate more car lanes. Some streets and districts

are now off-limits to cyclists.

Public transport use has risen in almost all Chinese cities due to rising populations and

the longer trips caused by the expansion of urban areas. For all Chinese cities in

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aggregate, total public transport trips rose by 67% from 1996 to 2004 (from 25.6 billion

to 42.6 billion) (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2005).

Although Chinese and Indian cities suffer from a long list of transport problems, the

focus here is on only four of the most important problems: traffic deaths and injuries,

environmental pollution, congestion, and lack of adequate mobility. To varying degrees,

all four problems have become more serious in recent years due to rapid population

growth, the spreading out of cities into lower-density suburbs, and skyrocketing

motorization. In both China and India, traffic congestion is probably the most visible,

most pervasive, and most immediate transport problem plaguing their cities on a daily

basis. It affects all modes of transport and all socio-economic groups. Most estimates as

well as anecdotal impressions suggest rapidly worsening congestion. The periods of peak

congestion in Delhi now last 5 hours, from 8.30 to 10.30 and from 16.30 to 19.30. During

peak hours, over 70% of roads in central Beijing are considered oversaturated with

traffic. During peak hours, more than half of the roads and intersections in Shanghai's

central area are considered oversaturated, and 20% of Beijings inner roads are

completely gridlocked.

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2 INTRODUCTION

Public transportation system of Karachi is suffering from various major and minor

problems which include disintegration of modal split, uncomfortable mode of

commutation and lack of capacity in institutions responsible for overall planning,

development and maintenance of this system. This study is aimed at identifying

characteristic of common commuter which then leads to identification of commutation

needs of a common commuter. This study also attempts to identify direct and indirect

stakeholders affecting the system in a way or the other. The study also analyses the

situation of urban bus scheme, commonly known as Benazir Bhutto Shaheed CNG Buses

and compare it with current transport needs of the city. This study also attempts to unveil

the underlying socio-economic factor of Karachi Circular Railway delay. The study takesinto account a theoretical model for institutionalization of this sector. Do we need

institutional changes? To what extent?

Why planning part of the sector is so weak? Why could it not be implemented

effectively?

What lessons can we learn from other big metropolitan cities?

How can people of Karachi play their role to contribute to rehabilitation of this system?

What level of scientific approach has been given to the development of this system?

What level of technical and financial capacity do we have to bring our system at par with

other renowned public transportation systems of the world?

What institutional strength have we shown in past? What particular institutional areas do

we need to improve upon?

Do we have a non-overlapping and integrated mechanism of planning and execution of

transportation projects?

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4 IMPORTANCE OF THE RESEARCH

Karachi makes a big contribution to national economic activities and represents an urban

centre with a huge population. Ever increasing population demands for proportional

increase in transportation needs of the masses. Since independence, however, the system

has not been developed effectively. In some instances, system failures in various aspects

have resulted in loss of national wealth.

People of Karachi make a huge contribution to raise national income and oil machinery

of total national economy. In return, they deserve to have a public transportation system

that meets their expectations and requirements of commutations and stands as

transportation mode of choice, as in other part of the world. All the problems indicated in

the literature review need to be addressed in holistic manner. If not timely addressed and

delayed even further, absence of a modernized and integrated transportation system will

adversely affect the comfort of people, economy of transportation and environment at

large.

Being exploratory and comparative in nature, this study is an expression of desire to have

a well developed transportation system. The study will eventually attempt to open eyes of

people whose collective presence has made this city a great commercial, industrial and

trade hub, the people whose aspirations have not been given preference while crafting the

system as we bear it today

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5 OBJECTIVES

The study has attempted to achieve following objectives:

1. To conduct an analysis to identify the stabilizing growth rates in population and

corresponding growth rate of transportation demand

2. To determine the most suitable modes of transportation for the people of Karachi,

keeping in view the characteristics of a common commuter and availability of

resources

3. To identify similar metropolitan cities with which a rational comparison can be

drawn and to benchmark the future improvements and developments in this sector

with sequence of precedence and successions.4. To propose institutional changes for sustainable development and integrated

policy making.

5. To investigate why KCR Project (Karachi Circular Railway) is still on papers

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6 OBJECTIVE NO. 1

To conduct an analysis to identify the stabilizing growth rates in population and

corresponding growth rate of transportation demand

6.1 Research Methodology

This study takes into account the seats available to population ratio of Mumbai and

Hong Kong and compares it with same ratio for Karachi. To perform extrapolative

calculations, the study has taken into account the growth patterns of populations and

vehicles in Karachi. This study also employs factual data like average number of seats in

a mini-bus and average number of seats in CNG buses. The study mainly employs

descriptive statistical tools like averages, extrapolations and forecast.

6.2 Limitation

This study does not take into account the number of seats that can be made available by

Karachi Circular Railway, if it comes online before 2015. So, the figures

derived/calculated may stand out as underestimated. Nevertheless, these figures

represents minimum degree dearth that exists in supply of the service.

6.3 Null Hypothesis

Growth in transportation means is consistent with growth in population of Karachi.

People of Karachi, therefore, has sufficient commutation resources, when compared with

internationally maintained transportation capacities of a given transport system.

6.4 Alternative Hypothesis

Growth in public transportation means has failed to keep pace up with growth in

population. Karachi requires transportation capacity increment to cater to the

commutation needs of the people.

6.5 Descriptive Analysis

Being centre of trade, industry and financial services, Karachi attracts lots of people from

different geographic regions of Pakistan. This has resulted in rapid growth in population

of the city and simmering needs of basic urban facilities. Infrastructure of transportation

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is one such area which has required serious attention from the stakeholders at large.

Shown below is the graph of vehicles growth trends in Karachi from 2002 to 2007

(actual) and from 2007 to 2013 (extrapolated).

6.5.1 Table - Vehicles growth rates from 2002 to 2013 (extrapolated)

S.

NoYear

Total No.

Registered

Vehicles in

Karachi

Annual

increase

Monthly

increase

Daily

increase(Growth %)

1 2002 1,113,917 30,640 2,553 84

2 2003 1,177,315 63,398 5,283 174 6%

3 2004 1,280,349 102,934 8,578 282 9%

4 2005 1,431,994 151,745 12,645 415 12%

5 2006 1,610,757 178,763 14,897 489 12%6 2007 1,809,500 198,743 16,562 545 12%

7*

200

8 1,972,355 162,855 13,571 452 9%

8

200

9 2,149,867 177,512 14,793 493 9%

9

201

0 2,343,355 193,488 16,124 537 9%

10

201

1 2,554,257 210,902 17,575 586 9%

11

201

2 2,784,140 229,883 19,157 639 9%

12

201

3 3,034,713 250,573 20,881 696 9%

Source: Per Person Trip Study of Karachi by JICA

*Extrapolated from here on for growth rate of 9%

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Figure 6-1 - Vehicles Growth

Following graph shows the growth rates of population, vehicles on road and cars in

Karachi from year 1990 to 2002. This clearly depicts that the growth rates of cars have

exceeded that of total vehicles as population grew.

Figure 6-2 - Growth Trends of Vehicles and Cars versus Population

According to an estimate, population of Karachi is currently increasing at the rate of 5%

per annum and is expected to die down slowly no sooner than year 2020. This 5% rise in

the population is mainly due to migration of many from rural areas of Pakistan. The estimate

also shows that approximately 45,000 are coming to seek bread and butter in this city from

various parts of the country.

In order to have an insight into the future demand of public transportation in the city, the

study has taken into account the population growth rates and corresponding growth rates in

number of vehicles coming on road every new day. The divide of the vehicle consists of

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privately owned vehicles, mini-buses, coaches and para transits like rickshaws and taxis. This

study, firstly, embarks upon calculating an estimated number of buses that are needed to

serve the needs of population in its entirety. This is achieved by setting number of seats

available to population ratio of 1:12 equal to that of Mumbai, India. According to a study,

currently the ratio for Karachi is 1:40, which simply means that one seat is available for every

40 people taking on trip in the buses.

The calculations then take into account the actual figures of population, current capacity of

buses fleet and a CNG buses project named Shaheed Benazir Bhutto CNG Buses Project, which

plans to inject 4,000 CNG buses under a public-private partnership in five years time. This

project is deemed to serve 4.6 million people in the city and 40 routes have been determined

for these buses. These buses, on average, consist of 90 seats per bus. If these buses are

successfully added to the functional public transport of the city, we are likely to achieve the

seat to population ratio of 1:24 by the end of year 2015, as shown below in the calculations.

If correlation analysis of share of privately owned vehicles and share of public transport

vehicle of is performed, the study shall find negative correlation between the two as increment

in one will sure decrease the share of the other in total. This inference leads to the fact that

increases in public transportation means is bound to decrease growth rate of privately held

vehicles. This, in turn, leads to the fact that mass transit system and integration of the public

transportation system is bound to bring in environmental prosperity at large.

6.5.2 Table - Actual and Estimated Number of Vehicles on Roads

Actual (For Seat available to

population ratio of 1:40)

Estimated Demand (For Seat

available to population ratio of 1:12)*

No. of on road

vehicles

%age of

Total

No. of on road

vehicles

%age of

Total

Buses 2,300 19% 7,667 19%

Mini Buses 6,284 52% 20,946 52%

Coaches 3,562 29% 11,873 29%

Total 12,146 100% 40,486 100%

Source: City District Government Karachi. Urban bus scheme. http://www.karachicity. gov.pk/eip-

ubs.asp, 2005-11-24.

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Figure 6-3 Breakup of Public Transport Modes

Figure 6-4 Comparison of Actual vs. Estimated number of Coaches, Mini-

buses and Buses

6.6 Calculations for Estimated DemandActual Figures

Population of Karachi = 1,3117,680

Average no. of seats available in a vehicle = 27

Total no. of seats in 12,146 vehicles = 12,146 x 27 = 327,942

Estimated Demand Figures for seat available to population ratio of 1:12

Population of Karachi = 1,3117,680

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Average no. of seats available in a vehicle = 27

Total no. of seats required = 1,3117,680 / 12 = 1,093,140

Total no. of vehicles required = 1,093,140 / 27 = 40,486

Estimated current deficit (potential for reduction of growth rates of private vehicles that

stands at 12% per annum as of 2007)

=40,486 - 12,146 = 28,340

Population of Karachi after 5 years (in 2015 @ current growth of 5% per year) = 1,3117,680 x

1.05^5 = 16,741,853No of seats to be generated by 4000 CNG buses with avg. seating capacity of 90 seats per bus =

4000 x 90 =360,000

Expected total no. of seats in 2015 in buses = 360,000 + 327,942 = 687,942

Expected seats available to population ratio in 2015 will be 1:24

Note : * Mumbai's seat available to population ratio of 1:12 is taken as benchmark for Karachi: For

Hong Kong, this ratio is 1:8

6.7 Findings

The study has calculated the deficit that exists in comparison to the benchmark ratio.

According to the calculation given below, there exists deficit of 28,340 buses or equivalent of

765,198 seats in the city. This deficit, at one place depicts the simmering need of comfortable

and hassle free public transport. From another viewpoint, it suggests the way we can reduce

the growth rate of privately owned vehicles in the city. Reducing the inclination/need of people

to own private vehicles can only be reduced if they are made available with the transportation

services of their choice, which can only be made possible by introducing a mass transit system

consisting of multi-modal transportation means. This also calls for efficient and integrated

transportation management system that is missing from the landscape due to lack of

institutional capacity. If we are to achieve the desired level of transportation capacity by the

end of 2015, the project in pipeline, as reviewed in literature review, need to be kicked-off

with no time waste. Having calculated and quoted the figures for deficit and estimated

demands, this study suggests that alternative hypothesis holds true.

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7 OBJECTIVE NO. 2

To determine the most suitable modes of transportation for the people of Karachi,

keeping in view the characteristics of a common commuter and availability of resources


This study has necessitated going through all the literature review presented in the

beginning related to this objective. This study also takes into account the inferences drew

in the previous section. The theoretical framework presented in the literature review

originates from various research journals, newspapers and official websites of various

organizations.

7.2 Limitation

This study aims to undertake major modes of transportation like buses and para-transits.

Modes like small wagons and cattle vehicles are not part of the study.

7.3 Null Hypothesis

The resources and facilities are satisfactory and people are happy with them.


The resources and facilities require rational and integrative improvements.

7.5 Thematic Analysis

Karachi city has grown from a small town at a sea port, mainly known for its commercial

activities around the sea port, to a full-fledged city with millions of dwellers hailing from

multi-ethnic backgrounds and diverse commercial activities. Urbanization is taking place

at the periphery of the city and currently there are 18 towns constituting the city. The

Central Business District of Karachi which spans from Saddar and through Jamshed and

Kemari towns stand out as a big convergence point of retail and trading activities in the

city. The CBD encircles many wholesale markets, warehouses of different sort, office

building, banks, financial institutions, transport hubs like truck and bus stands, etc. no

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less than 50 percent of the employments are concentrated in the inner part of the city.

With this, new industrial zones are likely to emerge as the city grows even more. Table

give below shows the densest areas with respect to commutation activities in the city.

7.5.1 Table - Top 10 Most Travelled Spots in Karachi

According to a survey, there migrate 45000 people every month. This huge migrations

demand for industrial space allocations and new industrial zones are likely to emerge as

the time passes by. Also, commercial growth is taking place along major arterials of thecity. While most residential establishments are one or two storey buildings, significant

densification is also taking place by constructing upper storey and further divisions of

large plots. In many old residential areas, apartment buildings with five to six storeys

have superseded the bungalow type housing with much lower densities.

Migration of masses to the city has brought evolutionary changes in the urban sprawl of

the city, as many suburbs and outskirts have come into being. Most of the people who

came in and settled in newly unplanned populated areas, commute to trade and industrial

centers like CBD (Central Business District), SITE, Korangi industrial area, Landhi, and

Port Qasim, to name a few.

People travel to far flung areas to their workplaces. Many people do part time, low

salaried jobs in different areas, to earn very basic level of household income. Their ability

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to obtain employment and education is highly dependent on the costs and availability of

public transport.

To cater to the need of the population, there were about 44,480 yellow and black &

yellow taxis as of December, 2005. Similarly, there were 39,462 Rickshaws serving to

dwellers. Two stroke Rickshaws were phased out in 2007 and they were replaced by

CNG TUK TUK Rickshaws.

Income, the key determinant of work opportunities available, largely hinge on the

availability of transport. The person who is able to catch a bus in time can open up a new

job on the day. Available transportation facilities can leave far-reaching implications on

livelihood of people. 70% population of Karachi has household income below Rs. 10,000

per month. When compared with the income level, expenditure of Rs. 500 to 1000 per

month per family constitutes from 3% to 26% of total of monthly income. With that, poor

safety conditions when commuting is a serious risk to lives of many as indicated by the

yearly 600 death incidents in the city, mostly those of pedestrians. This, when statistically

and economically analyzed, shows that an average commuter pays heavily for usage of

the transportation, especially when the person is only breadwinner of the family. In

practice the majority of blue-collar jobs remained near the city centre, whereas the

government had already shifted the low-income residents by force to the outskirts. The

passage of time has revealed that the city, nor the country for that matter, has never had

the financial or technical/manpower resources to sustain that grand vision. The amount

spent by the low-income group on transport is a substantial burden on their daily/monthly

budgets. An increase in fares is predictable. With annual national budget announcements,

the oil prices go up and with it the fares for public transport. These disproportionate

increases in fares affect the livelihoods of urban poor. Most of the poor spend 10 per cent

or more of their monthly earnings on their work-related transport. Overall transport

expenses could be much higher. The monthly incomes of most of the people are between

Rs1500 and Rs 6000.

Approximately a total time of more than two hours every day going to work and coming

back while for some it is more than four hours daily. Excessive time and money is spent

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reaching work places, and mental tension, physical discomfort, and stress are common.

The lack of access to and poor quality of the public transport further reduce the

opportunities available to the poor. The opportunity costs of the resources spent on public

transport, both financial and social, is huge. The same resources could be spent on other

more productive activities like spending time with the family, primary education, and

income-generating activities. Average travel time, subsequent delay and speed of travel

are tabulated for major roads of the city.

7.5.2 Table - Average Travel Time, Delay and Speed

Passengers have to travel hanging on the doors or sitting on the roof-tops of public

transport vehicles during peak hours. Traveling while standing throughout the duration of

travel in great heat; hanging partly or completely outside the vehicle; having to sit on

roof-tops (with the obvious fears); the non-availability of seats and the bad condition of

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the seats. In many cases the passengers clothes are torn or smeared with dirt and/or oil;

clothes and shoes get soiled and wrinkled; suffocating from smoke and lack of fresh air;

losing their balance or even falling over while standing in the fast-moving vehicles; and

speeding and dangerous driving.

Passengers cannot rely on the transport service. Daily timetables or even lists of the

number of services available on a given route are non-existent. Passengers have to rely on

verbal information and guess when planning their trips. Almost everyone has to wait at

least 10-15 minutes at bus-stops without knowing when the bus will arrive. The result is

long waits and anxiety.

Women commuters also undergo perils due to mobility constraints and inadequate

standard of services. Most of the public transport women commuters take Islamic veil

which makes them demand for separate seating section in a given mode of transport.

Comparatively women travel for shorter distances than men, and usually carry shopping

bags, children and elders with them. I case of students, females carry sizable books and

bags. In limited number of so called dedicated women seats, the women compete with

men for the seats. It indeed is difficult for women to compete owing to the civic sense,

cultural backgrounds and male dominance nature of the society. The private operators are

least bothered by the segregation and maintenance of separate seats for women as their

goal is to maximize returns not upholding ethics and respect for women in general. Mane

women, especially student class, have limited budget to sustain their commutation needs.

The service they get is not free of risks of sexual and verbal harassment.

In any sort of planning, children passengers are neglected for no apparent reason. There is

always a lack of space in a people laden buses and conductors would mal-treat them.

Students would carry heavy bags as they travel from home to school and back home.

Students face many hardships as they travel. Exposure to impolite gestures and vulgar

language, facing irrational bus routes that never ensures timely travel to their educational

centers and above all, issue of safety are the topics need to be addressed.

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Improvements in transport not only provide people with more convenient access to a

broad range of socio-economic opportunities, but also have strong income effects by

lowering transport cost and hence the prices of consumer goods and services

In these ways, transport exerts a pervasive contribution to the improvement in personal

welfare.

7.6 Findings

Urban land use and housing planning is lacking synchronization with workplace

opportunities for the working class. This has resulted in having people require rational

split of modes of transportation. Moreover, this demands for strategic and long term

planning of the further spread of the city imminent in coming decades. Due to in thehands of private operators, who mostly do not show moral binding to most of the

transportation related issues and concerns of the commuters, people require an

improvised and regularized transportation system. This system should take into account

gender and age differences and subsequent needs of commutation of travelers.

Improvements and rationalization will increase productive movements in the city and will

improvise economical, social and civic status of the commuters. Access to infrastructure

services like public transportation brings radical changes to welfare of commons. People

will experience improvised socio-economic opportunities and lowered costs of

commutation would allow them to spend more on other necessities of life, thus raising

their standards of lives. With remote locations of housing and residences of working

class, the dearth or inexistence of government regulated and/or subsidized transportation;

people are bound to use transport run by private operator at substandard conditions

offered. This is one of the major causes of growing frustration, hampered productivity

and waste of energies on unproductive engagements. To cater to the needs of men,

women and children residing in the city, buses of improvised quality service have

become need of time. Mini buses operational these have failed to provide the desired

level of service and need to be overhauled thoroughly. This can be done with a census on

the lines of public-private partnerships. This move would allow for bigger buses with

more than 50 seats in a bus and regulated to respect every commuters needs. The areas

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with high pedestrian traffic need to be redesigned in accordance with people movements

along the tracks. Encroachments alongside the major and minor arterials require to be

resettled somewhere else. It calls for small markets plan accommodating such

encroachers in localities. Ongoing CNG buses project is hoped to address major

transportation issues to date if is integrated with Karachi Circular Railway project.

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8 OBJECTIVE NO. 3

To identify similar metropolitan cities with which a rational comparison can be drawn

and to benchmark the future improvements and developments in this sector with

sequence of precedence and successions

8.1 Methodology

This study takes comparative approach to gain an insight into transportation system of

comparable metropolitans of India and china. Demographics and geographical

similarities of the metropolitans are taken into consideration to develop a comparable

picture. As the study for this objective progresses, comparative figures are used to draw a

deductive or inductive inference. All the subsequent critical analysis and figures are

going to be based on secondary data collected from various research reports published in

various research journals and technical reports of various organizations, official websites

of various newspapers and websites related to the area of study, as mentioned in

references part of the proposal.

8.2 Null Hypothesis

Demographics and geography of the metropolitans under consideration are absolutely the

same and planners of Karachi transport system can follow their transport development

planning blindly.


Karachi, Beijing and Mumbai share most of the demographic and geographic

characteristics. The development planning, as followed in the foreign cities, requires to

be modified before implementing in Karachi.

8.4 Comparative Analysis

In many ways, the scenario in India is quite similar to Pakistan. One big commonality is

low per-capita income that is US $1030 (for Pakistan, it is US $1027). 23% of Indias

urban population is living in poverty. Most important public transport problems Indian

public face include operational inefficiencies, congestion on roads, unsecure traffic and

roads, weak planning, dearth of transportation facilities, noise pollution and lack of

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traffic management systems. Similar are the issues that China, in general, face in its

public transportation system with an exception in area of planning. So far, most of the

development has taken place with well-thought urban and land use planning,

complementing other infrastructure facilities in it two big cities namely Shanghai and

Beijing. Suburbanization and population growth in the cities of Karachi, Mumbai, Delhi

and Beijing are quite similar.

Both in Chinese and Indian metropolitans, problems of overwhelming population growth,

ever increasing urban sprawl and sharp increase in private vehicles ownership has

qualified the countries for comparison with Pakistani metropolitans such as Karachi.

Although Chinese have invested a great deal of money in new roadways and

infrastructural development, its planning seems to have ignored equivalent development

of intra city local roads to supplement the bigger motorways and highway traffic coming

in and moving out of the city. For instance, although Beijing and Shanghai have extended

motorway networks, their intra city local roads are still constrict and clogged up. Another

fact renders this situation worse. Most affluent people live in the core of the city and own

car when space for it is least. Travel demand is also concentrated due to mono-centric

land use patterns of the cities and most commercial activities; feeding most of the

Chinese, is concentrated in the core of the cities.

From year 1995 to 2003, number of buses has increased 4 times in Beijing and doubled in

Shanghai. This clearly shows the growing population commutation needs catered by bus

services in recent past. Beijing has a network of interlinked traffic signals that controls

flow of road traffic and Mumbai is also modernizing in these traffic management tools.

Traffic regulations are strictly made to observe in Beijing while situation is quite similar

to what we see in Karachi when we talk about Mumbai. In Mumbai investment is to

develop infrastructure of the transportation is majorly channeled to construction ofintersections, underpasses and flyovers, and improvement in quality of roads. This

investment, like Karachi, has brought in very positive change as traffic accidents and

congestion have reduced significantly.

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To cater to increasing urban population in Beijing, Chinese have undertaken construction

of new rail routes and expansion of existing ones. Six Chinese cities already have state of

the art metro networks (Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen), and

the 406 kilometer long route metro network in those cities is currently on expansion to

expend to another 256 kilometer. In China, importance of metro systems can be gauged

by knowing the fact that ten more Chinese cities are considering metro system to cater to

the growing transportation needs of the people.

Chinese intend to spend a huge amount of money to build and expand upon metro and

light rail systems. Like Karachi (US $ 872 million appropriated for KCR), Chinese have

appropriated US $1 billion a year since year 2002 in Beijing and US $1.7 billion a year in

Shanghai. This clearly demonstrates the importance of metro systems in a city which has

been serviced mostly by buses and is now expanded with philosophy of integration of

road-rail systems.

It is worth mentioning here that fares of metro system that currently exists in Shanghai

and Beijing are generally too high for people living below poverty line (10.2% people in

China live below poverty line). Metro and light-rail fares are about three times higher

than bus fares. These fares are so high that Chinese government had to intervene and fuel

the metro system with subsidies. If example of Karachi is taken, in Karachi, according to

Asian Development Bank, 50.2 percent residents of Karachi are living below poverty line

(2007 statistics). Economy of China and Pakistan, especially that of both the

metropolitans (Karachi and Beijing) is not comparable. This raises a question of

sustainability and affordability of Karachi Circular Railway project.

Only Delhi and Kolkata have metro systems in place. At peak hours, these systems run

full. In some instances, as a survey suggested, these systems accommodated more than

twoce the design capacity of trains. People would hang out of doors or windows. Forthjose failing to get hold onto metro trains, buses, rickshaws and taxis are modes of

choice. People would own bikes which allow them to maneuver between the traffic. This

situation is quite similar to what we see in Karachi where bike riders would tend to

overtake bigger vehicles during congestions. The point worth mentioning here is that,

India has made an integrated mass transit system available for the people in Delhi and

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Kolkata. This certainly has a positive impact on private vehicles ownership and certainty

of public transport to commute reliably. To achieve a greater degree of integration, delhi

government is now considering construction of over 100 Km Bus Rapid Transit in

coming 5 years. In Delhi, transport system has real time information systems to monitor

buses locations. Bus routing optimization, traffic signals coordination, information about

arrivals and departures at key bus stops etc. This should draw attention of CDGK

planners.

Chinese planners have always considered rights and needs of pedestrians and non-

motorized vehicles while chalking out plans for road transport. The roads accommodate

walking and cycling. In contrast to Pakistan and India, most of the Chinese cities use to

have pavements, crosswalks, traffic signals for pedestrians and cyclists and special lane

for cyclists. In contrast to India, most Chinese cities provide pavements, crosswalks,

cycle paths, cycle lanes, and special traffic signals for pedestrians and cyclists.

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9 OBJECTIVE NO. 4

To propose institutional changes for sustainable development and integrated policy

making


This study takes into account a research model named Four Pilars Model for Sustainable

Urban Transportation System. Firstly, the study attempts to depict the model very briefly

and then go on to compare the current transportation with the model and indentify the

gaps which exist in the system.

9.2 Null Hypothesis

The existing transportation system is ideal and does not lack in aspects of governance,

financial resources allocation, infrastructure planning and land use structure.

9.3 Alternate Hypothesis

The existing needs to be developed on scientific lines so that it eventually becomes

sustainable in the long run.

9.4 Comparative/Gap Analysis

Pakistan lacks clear policies on the direction of transport that is apparent on a national

level. The most significant setback in this regard is the states inability to develop a

transport policy altogether. Three separate drafts had been proposed by three different

agencies: The Planning Commission, Chartered Institute of Transport, Pakistan (CITP),

and National Transport Research Center (NTRC) but they were all put on hold because of

other major political concerns. The Free Transport policy is prevalent in Pakistan, where

any vehicle can travel on any road except a few notable exceptions. A consequence of

this ineffective policy is that every type of vehicle is forced in every type of way forcing

slow-down and congestion in the whole transport system. Another aspect which impacts

the level of improvements in the system has only recently been remedied. The Transport

sector has only just recently been given the status of an industry in Pakistan resulting in

Expansive Investments and subsequent improvements. However, the lack of a definite

policy has resulted in solutions being implemented only partially and on a temporary

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basis. The Karachi Metropolitan Authority was temporarily established, but failed to

survive in an uncertain environment. Hence, in order to establish sustainability in the

Transport industry, the government needs to implement firmer and permanent measures.

The First step in these measures would be to abolish the free transport policy in favor of a

more effective and clearly defined policy.

This study incorporates the Four Pillar Model of Sustainable Urban Transportation as a

guiding beacon for institutionalization of public transport system of Karachi. According

to this theoretical model, following are the major determinants upon which structure of a

sustainable transport system rests:

1. Formation of effective governing agencies for planning of integrated land-use

transportation

2. Formation of efficient, affordable and viable funding systems

3. Improvements and strategic investment in basic transport infrastructure

4. Use of local design to support the implemented infrastructure.

In the model used, these factors serve as the vital pillars of urban transportation which

is sustainable for a longer period of time. In the context of Pakistan, several key issues

need to be addressed. The study attempts to address these key issues and study them in

greater detail for maximum effect.

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Figure 9-1 - Four Pillar Model for Sustainable Public Transportation System

The first pillar is related to the governance. The government may seriously hamper the

ability of the individual who wishes to develop a sustainable urban transport system by

being uncooperative. It is generally observed that these governing bodies tend to lack the

will, power or authority to make these decisions which would facilitate the development

of sustained unban transport.

In public transportation institutions, an institutional culture is always lacking due to low

financial capacity, lack of management and technical skills and lack of empowerment of

thee entities. This has led to ineffective performance of public sector, semi-public sector,

public-private community sector, private franchised sector and deregulated private sector.

The most common observed problem that is generally encountered is the aversion to

responsibility that the transport authorities possess in relation to the suggestions of Land-

use planners. This model squarely bases its emphasis on integrated land-use for a

sustainable urban transport. In keeping with this focus, the several aspects of an ideal

governance body come to light regarding transport planning. The establishment of a

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stable and effective funding system for the necessary investments becomes a key aspect

of urban transport planning. In order to establish such a funding system, a steady flow of

capital investments are required. There is a need for long-term investment in

infrastructure to ensure the growth of sustainable urban transport. It is viable to utilize

existing infrastructure that is already well-established. This utilization of existing

resources will be more beneficial economically and structurally, as compared to

developing new and untried infrastructures.

The existing system is seen to be very inefficient as a grossly-estimated seventy-five

percent of all trips inside the city are made on Gasoline based vehicles, which are one of

the major causes of the un-sustainability of the urban transport system. A cut-down of

this excessive rate of resource wastage and an increase in environment friendliness

justifies long term investments in improving and developing new infrastructures. These

significant investments do need support from the local system if they are to be properly

implemented and regulated.

Further smaller investments need to be done in order to entice people to walk, cycle, and

use mass-transit more. These local actions may prove to be most beneficial when they are

implemented along with the larger-scale investments in the infrastructure. The

implementation of these community-centric measures along with the major infrastructure

improvements form the essence of planning that is required for integrated sustainable

urban transport.

The planning that is concerned with integrated land-use transport begins with the

formation of specialized government bodies overseeing and regulating the new transport

system. In city development mechanism, changes made to one part may affect the part in

unexpected ways and yield unexpected consequences. This can only be avoided by

offering a solution to this complication by establishing policies and plans in such acomprehensive and integrated way that even the minutest detail is not overlooked. But

this careful approach to transport planning and land-use is difficult to implement because

of lack of essential coordination on the part of the government and regulating bodies.

Singapore, Zurich, Tama Garden, and Curitiba are few of the cities that have

recognizable integrated land-use and transportation planning.

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The cities with high accessibility are assigned mass-transit, whereas areas of the city

which are less accessible are made accessible through walking paths and bicycles. This

approach maximizes land-use and proves highly environment-friendliness. A major

hurdle in the effective implementation of these concepts is the inability of the

government to support new endeavors. Due to a difference in opinion on the

responsibilities that are to be distributed within the government agencies, the transport

system suffers as a whole. This is evident in the lack of empowerment for planning in

charter of National Transit Authority of Pakistan.

The theoretical framework of four pillar model is summarized in the figure below:

Figure 9-2 Essential Components of Transit and How They Work Together

9.5 Findings

Public transport planning and policies have turned out to be unproductive due to flaws in

governance structure. In Pakistan, transport planning has been divided into road network

development and maintenance and public transport planning. The road development

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would be further upgraded. But this planed upgrade did not go as well as planned and the

mode of transport itself suffered a decrease in popularity. This resulted in the decline of

the concept of the use of railways as a means for travel inside the city limits. This

decrease in popularity led to the advent of the buses as the first choice of people who

wanted to use public transport as the means of day-to-day conveyance. The buses system

was considered quicker and more efficient than the Train system in this regard. The

Karachi Circular Railways was closed for public use in 1999, when it was no longer

feasible for the government to keep operating these Train systems. The Karachi Circular

Railways was proposed to be revived as a project by the Pakistan Railways to serve as an

effective means to travel in between the city. This would help alleviate the problems of

the traffic that lead to the increase in vehicles on the roads of the city. In order to achieve

an efficient system for the Railways, the single tracks spread throughout the city are to be

upgraded to double line standards.

There are about 20,000 families dwelling in informal settlements alongside of the railway

tracks. The total land encircles 3, 119 acres of land, which accounts for 0.7% of total land

area of Karachi. Currently, 25 informal settlements on total of 291 acres of railway land

dwell illegally. This occupancy accounts for 9.33% of total railway land. For KCR

project to succeed these settlements are to be relocated. The dwellers have grouped

themselves under the hood of All Pakistan Alliance for Katchi Abadis (APAKA).

Purpose of this organization is to resist the changes being implemented in the informal

settlements and negotiate the terms and conditions on the basis of which decisions of

relocation can be taken. To conduct the relocation and bring about the change, two NGOs

namely Urban Resource Centre (URC) and Orangi Pilot ProjectResearch and Training

Institute (OPPRTI) have played an instrumental role sp far as they helped conducting

initial surveys for relocation and documentation of historical evolution of these

settlements.

Main stakeholders of this relocation process, which is purely an issue of railway land

dispute, include CDGK, Government of Sind, Pakistan Railways, Railways Employee

Union and Katchi Abadis or low income settlements. Railway Employees Union wants

accommodation on the land whereas Katchi Abadis want regularization of this land. In

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connection to this, commercial sector wants long-term leases on the land. The interesting

point is that no formal, goal seeking sitting has taken place so far. This is mainly due to

the vested interest of people sitting in corridors of power.

The main concern of the formal and informal settlements is that of relocation process and

its transparency. People are afraid to an extent that they believe if newly elected

government steps into the matter later on, the terms and conditions which are held true

today, would be declared void later on by the government. Moreover, the relocation

proposals envisaged sp far offer to relocate the settlements to places which would take

them far away from their workplaces and they will not be able to manage their sources of

sustenance. People who continue to stick to current workplaces would have to bear high

costs of transportation to commute. Women are mostly likely to be affected the worse by

this relocation process, suggested by APAKA because they will simply have to give up

jobs/work to manage family life. In summary, the poor will grow even poorer.

A number of alternatives like construction of overhead railway tracks and conversion of

KCR tracks into BRT lanes are in place but these proposals are yet to be scrutinized.

Replacement of KCR tracks with BRT would

Karachi Urban Transport Corporation (KUTC) has declared this project essential for

Karachi as this project offers to cover 6 % of total of 24.2 million trips per day. With that,

removal of formal and informal settlements will have to be relocated with consensus on

part of the entire stakeholder. It is worth mentioning here that difficult part is to negotiate

with formal settlements and this represents 72 percent of the length

Documents

Report on the Mass Transit System